Mitch Marner: what now?

[Bullfrog]

I honestly put the chances of an offer sheet at less than 1%

 

[Zee]

I honestly put the chances of an offer sheet at less than 1%

 

[Kin]

What's 2 first round unprotected picks worth?  Probably a lot.

I obviously can't speak for a lot of NHL GM's but I'd be very reluctant to trade a significant piece away for a return that could vary so wildly depending on something entirely outside of your control. I know in Toronto we tend to view everything like this through the prism of the Kessel deal but it would be a hard sell to your team to move a big piece and get back what turned out to be a couple of late first rounders. Especially if someone is offering you something more concrete.

 

[Bender]

What's 2 first round unprotected picks worth?  Probably a lot.

I obviously can't speak for a lot of NHL GM's but I'd be very reluctant to trade a significant piece away for a return that could vary so wildly depending on something entirely outside of your control. I know in Toronto we tend to view everything like this through the prism of the Kessel deal but it would be a hard sell to your team to move a big piece and get back what turned out to be a couple of late first rounders. Especially if someone is offering you something more concrete.

Do you think signing the poison pill offer sheet at let's say $11M and the Leafs match, how badly do you think it would affect Marner's trade value based on cap hit?

 

[Kin]

Do you think signing the poison pill offer sheet at let's say $11M and the Leafs match, how badly do you think it would affect Marner's trade value based on cap hit?

I mean, if some team out there is willing to pay Marner 11 million and sacrifice 4 1st round picks then it's hard to argue that people out there don't think he's worth 11 million.

 

[L K]

Do you think signing the poison pill offer sheet at let's say $11M and the Leafs match, how badly do you think it would affect Marner's trade value based on cap hit?

I mean, if some team out there is willing to pay Marner 11 million and sacrifice 4 1st round picks then it's hard to argue that people out there don't think he's worth 11 million.

And trading for 11.6 million dollar Mitch Marner at the cost of 4 1st round picks doesn't mean you have to trade for him with 4 1sts.  Maybe you trade a prospect two 1sts and a 3rd instead.  Or maybe just the equivalent of two 1st round picks.  Or two 1st round quality prospects who are closer to NHL ready. 

 

[Peter D.]

Why is it now that the Leafs should draw the line in the sand?  Consider trading him.  Take four 1sts from an offersheet.  Don't cave and give him $1M more than his perceived worth.

I'm confused.

 

[Bullfrog]

Why is it now that the Leafs should draw the line in the sand?  Consider trading him.  Take four 1sts from an offersheet.  Don't cave and give him $1M more than his perceived worth.

I'm confused.

principles, man, principles

 

[princedpw]

If I were Mitch (and maybe I am, you never know on the internet), I would show the offer sheet to the leafs as evidence of my worth, have a discussion, and hope that gives me a little more negotiating leverage. If Dubas says he can?t go that high, I wouldn?t sign it.  Too much risk for not enough gain.  I like my teammates. I like my city. I enjoy singing Bon Jovi on the bench. My linemates look like they are going to give me pretty much the best possible chance to maximize my on-ice success. I?ve got a bunch of endorsements that can make up a chunk of the difference and increase my stardom.  Yes, for the sake of status, i?d like a higher number but I don?t think I?d risk all the other things for $73.5 million (10.5) vs $66.5 million (9.5) over the next 7 years (for example).  But that?s just me and I may or may not be Mitch.

Leaving aside how much some of those factors are likely to matter to Mitch or you(can't you sing Bon Jovi on other teams?)

But can you find a teammate to sing with you?  Not so clear!

 

[Phileas Fogg]

I really don't see this situation any differently than the Nylander deal. The agent starts high, the gm starts low, and they meet more or less in the middle - I'd wager a 6 year deal at about 10M.

Too much? Maybe, but that's the problem when you have a player end his contract year with such a ridiculously amazing season.

What I was really hoping would happen when Nylander came back is that he would have a substantial points output so that there'd be a team-comparable winger contract that would make it easier for the team to negotiate from. When he shit the bed, it really screwed that up.

 

[Kaberle15]

I really don't see this situation any differently than the Nylander deal. The agent starts high, the gm starts low, and they meet more or less in the middle - I'd wager a 6 year deal at about 10M.

The only difference is that the Leafs can't drag this situation, they can not have the penalty on cap hit for a late sign, plus they have to sign others FA/RFAs

 

[bustaheims]

The only difference is that the Leafs can't drag this situation, they can not have the penalty on cap hit for a late sign, plus they have to sign others FA/RFAs

As has been discussed before, there's no penalty on the cap. If Marner signs a deal for $10M in the summer or in November, the impact on the cap is the same. Either way, it's $10M on the cap.

 

[Guilt Trip]

The only difference is that the Leafs can't drag this situation, they can not have the penalty on cap hit for a late sign, plus they have to sign others FA/RFAs

As has been discussed before, there's no penalty on the cap. If Marner signs a deal for $10M in the summer or in November, the impact on the cap is the same. Either way, it's $10M on the cap.

I'm not so sure. If he signs a deal worth 80 mill x 8 lets say, but he signs in Dec wouldn't his first year hit have to be higher in order to keep the AAV at 10 mill because of the remaining days left in the first season? Leafs did it with Nylander where they paid him 10 mill in the first year to keep the overall hit at 6.9. And that's interesting in itself because his actual dollars worth, $45,089,608 over 6 years is actually 7.5+ mill per. Now I'm more confused lol.

 

[mr grieves]

I really don't see this situation any differently than the Nylander deal. The agent starts high, the gm starts low, and they meet more or less in the middle - I'd wager a 6 year deal at about 10M.

The only difference is that the Leafs can't drag this situation, they can not have the penalty on cap hit for a late sign, plus they have to sign others FA/RFAs

The only thing stopping them here is an internal decision to handle Marner before anything else. As signs have begun pointing toward a more drawn out negotiation with Marner, Dubas has started to move off that position.

As has been discussed before, there's no penalty on the cap. If Marner signs a deal for $10M in the summer or in November, the impact on the cap is the same. Either way, it's $10M on the cap.

How can this be true given the way the Nylander deal worked out and affected the 18-19 cap?

 

[Bullfrog]

The only difference is that the Leafs can't drag this situation, they can not have the penalty on cap hit for a late sign, plus they have to sign others FA/RFAs

As has been discussed before, there's no penalty on the cap. If Marner signs a deal for $10M in the summer or in November, the impact on the cap is the same. Either way, it's $10M on the cap.

I'm not so sure. If he signs a deal worth 80 mill x 8 lets say, but he signs in Dec wouldn't his first year hit have to be higher in order to keep the AAV at 10 mill because of the remaining days left in the first season? Leafs did it with Nylander where they paid him 10 mill in the first year to keep the overall hit at 6.9. And that's interesting in itself because his actual dollars worth, $45,089,608 over 6 years is actually 7.5+ mill per. Now I'm more confused lol.

The book value of his salary was 10M+, but because he was only signed for a portion of the year, his actual salary received was prorated to the number of days on the roster, which equals the $6.9. He'll end up getting paid the equivalent of $6.9 per year.

So, the "book value" of his contract is $45,089,608. You're right; over 6 years that's ~$7.51M. But his real salary will be $6,962,366 x 6 = $41,774,196.

So, he gets his $6.9 per year, which means he got a much higher per game amount in the first year. In other words, he got his full $6.9M but only had to play a portion of the year.

 

[bustaheims]

I'm not so sure. If he signs a deal worth 80 mill x 8 lets say, but he signs in Dec wouldn't his first year hit have to be higher in order to keep the AAV at 10 mill because of the remaining days left in the first season? Leafs did it with Nylander where they paid him 10 mill in the first year to keep the overall hit at 6.9. And that's interesting in itself because his actual dollars worth, $45,089,608 over 6 years is actually 7.5+ mill per. Now I'm more confused lol.

Technically, yes, but, as I said, the actual impact on the team's cap will be the same, as the first year cap hit gets prorated to be equivalent to the cap hit in the remaining years of the contract.

 

[Guilt Trip]

So, he gets his $6.9 per year, which means he got a much higher per game amount in the first year. In other words, he got his full $6.9M but only had to play a portion of the year.

Willy's cap hit was 10.2 mill last year so wouldn't that be an issue if Marner signed after the season began? Wouldn't his cap hit be higher in year 1 then 10 mill assuming the contract is 80 mill over 8 years?

 

[Deebo]

So, he gets his $6.9 per year, which means he got a much higher per game amount in the first year. In other words, he got his full $6.9M but only had to play a portion of the year.

Willy's cap hit was 10.2 mill last year so wouldn't that be an issue if Marner signed after the season began? Wouldn't his cap hit be higher in year 1 then 10 mill assuming the contract is 80 mill over 8 years?

The 10.2M was pro-rated to 126/186 days of the season so his cap hit 6.96M last year.

https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/mapleleafs/cap-tracker

 

[Guilt Trip]

So, he gets his $6.9 per year, which means he got a much higher per game amount in the first year. In other words, he got his full $6.9M but only had to play a portion of the year.

Willy's cap hit was 10.2 mill last year so wouldn't that be an issue if Marner signed after the season began? Wouldn't his cap hit be higher in year 1 then 10 mill assuming the contract is 80 mill over 8 years?

The 10.2M was pro-rated to 126/186 days of the season so his cap hit 6.96M last year.

https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/mapleleafs/cap-tracker

So the Pro-Rated cap hit is for paper use only and doesn't count against the Cap?

 

[Deebo]

So, he gets his $6.9 per year, which means he got a much higher per game amount in the first year. In other words, he got his full $6.9M but only had to play a portion of the year.

Willy's cap hit was 10.2 mill last year so wouldn't that be an issue if Marner signed after the season began? Wouldn't his cap hit be higher in year 1 then 10 mill assuming the contract is 80 mill over 8 years?

The 10.2M was pro-rated to 126/186 days of the season so his cap hit 6.96M last year.

https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/mapleleafs/cap-tracker

So the Pro-Rated cap hit is for paper use only and doesn't count against the Cap?

The 10.2M/~186 days gives you the daily cap hit.

The daily cap hit X the number of days the player is on the roster is the amount the player counts for on the cap.

It's not that it doesn't count, the full year cap hit is just grossed up to the point where the daily cap hit X by the days remaining in the season make the cap hit equal in all years of the contract.