Mitch Marner: what now?

[princedpw]

That's what I keep coming back to. He's not getting Matthews money anywhere. That just isn't happening. So I don't get what his endgame is here.

Even if you believe that giving Marner that sort of money is a universally bad idea(and I'm not so sure it is), that's putting an awful lot of faith in the collective good judgement of NHL GMs. I think we both know we can find a fair few "There's no way Marleau will ever be traded" posts around here.

I will own up to this one. Though I don?t think I said ?there?s no way?, it didn?t look likely to me.  I?m glad it is looking like I?ll be wrong. We?ll still have to see what price the leafs need to pay to get out from under the contract though.

 

[ZBBM]

That's what I keep coming back to. He's not getting Matthews money anywhere. That just isn't happening. So I don't get what his endgame is here.

Even if you believe that giving Marner that sort of money is a universally bad idea(and I'm not so sure it is), that's putting an awful lot of faith in the collective good judgement of NHL GMs. I think we both know we can find a fair few "There's no way Marleau will ever be traded" posts around here.

But regardless, the end game seems pretty simple. Next year's Leafs are going to be in a tough spot to be as good as this year's team even with Marner. Gardiner seems to be gone no matter what and while not many of us will miss Zaitsev or Hainsey, there aren't internal options that look like automatic upgrades. So a team that only made the playoffs by virtue of 4 points may very well be in a tougher spot next year.

So if the team goes into next year with Marner pulling a Nylander, there's a very real chance the team could squander the points they need to secure a playoff spot. Maybe Dubas is willing to risk that in the abstract, maybe the fans here advocating for a hard line on Marner's negotiations will be forgiving if the result is not making the post-season(ha-ha) but it's a legitimate piece of leverage when the team needs to find a lot of internal improvement to even get back to where they were.

First of all, congrats on 25000 posts.  I always read you, it's fun.

I'd just add that I think making the playoffs this year even w/o Gardiner and Hainsey shouldn't be an issue.  Yes, they missed Gardiner while he was gone but in my view they underperformed somewhat pretty much starting after Xmas.  Some of that was structural, and the D will probably continue to be suspect even if Liljegren and/or Sandin step in.  Some was bad coaching (special teams).  But I expect Kadri (if he's still here) and Nylander to have better years.  (They'd damn well better.) 

Anyway, even in a parity league these guys ought be making the playoffs every year for the next X years so long as the core stays healthy and Andersen doesn't fall off a cliff.

 

[Zee]

18 days until the draft weekend.  If Marner isn't signed by then, Leafs face the real possibility of playing the game of chicken with him and the "offer sheet land".  Let's hope it doesn't get to that and both sides can come to something that's fair.

 

[L K]

I'll buy that argument under the 10.58 cap.  I could see a team trying to pinch Marner for the 2 1st, 2nd, 3rd...maybe but the 4 1st round picks one is a tough convince for me.  It speaks pretty poorly on Marner if he's going to sign an offersheet though over 500K.  Mostly from my end that would be an argument for letting him walk in my mind.

I'm really not trying to convince you of anything short of not automatically dismissing the possibility of an NHL GM making a big, potentially dumb decision.

Yeah, I realize I kind of navigated off into another point.  I don't disagree that there are stupid GMs capable of making stupid decisions.  I'm just not sure that there is a GM stupid enough to pay 4 1st round picks for a winger.

 

[Kin]

Yeah, I realize I kind of navigated off into another point.  I don't disagree that there are stupid GMs capable of making stupid decisions.  I'm just not sure that there is a GM stupid enough to pay 4 1st round picks for a winger.

I think in order for it to make sense it would have to be the first part of a larger plan. Take Philly for example. They're in a pretty good place right now because they've got a bunch of their top players signed to below market deals. So let's say they offer Marner 7/77. Then, if they get him, they start shopping Voracek. Obviously they couldn't get 4 1sts for Voracek but if they could get 2 1sts or a 1st and a 1st equivalent prospect they'd be getting younger and better at a net cost of 3 million per year and two distant 1st round picks.

 

[Bill_Berg]

Been thinking of the worst case scenario and I guess it's an offer sheet of 4 years at 10.5. The compensation is not four firsts but it's the max dollar value without reaching four firsts territory, and Marner is a UFA when the contract is up.

The Leafs would have to match exactly I suppose? I guess the optimistic view is a team wouldn't offer that because they'd expect the Leafs to match?

 

[Guilt Trip]

Been thinking of the worst case scenario and I guess it's an offer sheet of 4 years at 10.5. The compensation is not four firsts but it's the max dollar value without reaching four firsts territory, and Marner is a UFA when the contract is up.

The Leafs would have to match exactly I suppose? I guess the optimistic view is a team wouldn't offer that because they'd expect the Leafs to match?

Leafs would probably match a 10.5 offer. Now if the Leafs were offering 9.75 or 10, would Marner sign it? I think the offer is going to have to blow him away to get him to sign. He's not signing one for 500k more. Don't see it happening.

 

[Bill_Berg]

Been thinking of the worst case scenario and I guess it's an offer sheet of 4 years at 10.5. The compensation is not four firsts but it's the max dollar value without reaching four firsts territory, and Marner is a UFA when the contract is up.

The Leafs would have to match exactly I suppose? I guess the optimistic view is a team wouldn't offer that because they'd expect the Leafs to match?

Leafs would probably match a 10.5 offer. Now if the Leafs were offering 9.75 or 10, would Marner sign it? I think the offer is going to have to blow him away to get him to sign. He's not signing one for 500k more. Don't see it happening.

Maybe, but if it was also a year shorter so he's gets to UFA quicker it's worth more than 500k suddenly.

 

[Zee]

Been thinking of the worst case scenario and I guess it's an offer sheet of 4 years at 10.5. The compensation is not four firsts but it's the max dollar value without reaching four firsts territory, and Marner is a UFA when the contract is up.

The Leafs would have to match exactly I suppose? I guess the optimistic view is a team wouldn't offer that because they'd expect the Leafs to match?

Leafs would probably match a 10.5 offer. Now if the Leafs were offering 9.75 or 10, would Marner sign it? I think the offer is going to have to blow him away to get him to sign. He's not signing one for 500k more. Don't see it happening.

Maybe, but if it was also a year shorter so he's gets to UFA quicker it's worth more than 500k suddenly.

He signs an offer sheet he immediately goes from one of the most beloved Leafs to one of the most hated ex-Leafs

 

[Bullfrog]

Been thinking of the worst case scenario and I guess it's an offer sheet of 4 years at 10.5. The compensation is not four firsts but it's the max dollar value without reaching four firsts territory, and Marner is a UFA when the contract is up.

The Leafs would have to match exactly I suppose? I guess the optimistic view is a team wouldn't offer that because they'd expect the Leafs to match?

The deal would be five years max at that AAV or else the compensation would be up to the 4 first rounders (e.g. six year deal at $9.5M is $57M/5 = 11.4M for compensation purposes). I can't imagine any GM thinking he's worth $10.5M on a five year deal. He's a hell of a player, that's for sure, and he's going to get a tonne of cash, but he's not going to be the highest paid winger in the league.

I could be wrong of course.

 

[Bill_Berg]

Been thinking of the worst case scenario and I guess it's an offer sheet of 4 years at 10.5. The compensation is not four firsts but it's the max dollar value without reaching four firsts territory, and Marner is a UFA when the contract is up.

The Leafs would have to match exactly I suppose? I guess the optimistic view is a team wouldn't offer that because they'd expect the Leafs to match?

The deal would be five years max at that AAV or else the compensation would be up to the 4 first rounders (e.g. six year deal at $9.5M is $57M/5 = 11.4M for compensation purposes). I can't imagine any GM thinking he's worth $10.5M on a five year deal. He's a hell of a player, that's for sure, and he's going to get a tonne of cash, but he's not going to be the highest paid winger in the league.

I could be wrong of course.

Ah yes, the total divided by 5 or term, whatever is less. So that would be a four firsts situation. That's better.

 

[mr grieves]

Been thinking of the worst case scenario and I guess it's an offer sheet of 4 years at 10.5. The compensation is not four firsts but it's the max dollar value without reaching four firsts territory, and Marner is a UFA when the contract is up.

The Leafs would have to match exactly I suppose? I guess the optimistic view is a team wouldn't offer that because they'd expect the Leafs to match?

Leafs would probably match a 10.5 offer. Now if the Leafs were offering 9.75 or 10, would Marner sign it? I think the offer is going to have to blow him away to get him to sign. He's not signing one for 500k more. Don't see it happening.

If he knows the Leafs will match and wants that extra $500k, why wouldn't he?

 

[Guilt Trip]

Been thinking of the worst case scenario and I guess it's an offer sheet of 4 years at 10.5. The compensation is not four firsts but it's the max dollar value without reaching four firsts territory, and Marner is a UFA when the contract is up.

The Leafs would have to match exactly I suppose? I guess the optimistic view is a team wouldn't offer that because they'd expect the Leafs to match?

Leafs would probably match a 10.5 offer. Now if the Leafs were offering 9.75 or 10, would Marner sign it? I think the offer is going to have to blow him away to get him to sign. He's not signing one for 500k more. Don't see it happening.

If he knows the Leafs will match and wants that extra $500k, why wouldn't he?

He doesn't know if the Leafs would match. All he knows is the Leafs offer x, team b offers x + 500k. In the court of public opinion he'll be seen as a guy who chose to leave the Leafs over 500k. Says to me he is all about the cash and like Zee said, he'll be hated. Now if someone offers him 11, 11.5  I wouldn't blame him for signing it. No one would expect him to turn down that kind of cash.

 

[Kin]

I don't buy for a second that all that many fans would care about Marner choosing to sign a slightly higher offer sheet provided the Leafs match and he plays well.

Likewise, if he signs somewhere else and the Leafs don't match he'll be unpopular here regardless of the terms of the offer sheet. I don't think "Yeah he left, but he left for an extra 7 million as opposed to 3.5" is going to win too many fans over.

 

[mr grieves]

I don't buy for a second that all that many fans would care about Marner choosing to sign a slightly higher offer sheet provided the Leafs match and he plays well.

Likewise, if he signs somewhere else and the Leafs don't match he'll be unpopular here regardless of the terms of the offer sheet. I don't think "Yeah he left, but he left for an extra 7 million as opposed to 3.5" is going to win too many fans over.

Yeah, if Mitch Marner is in a Leafs jersey next year, fans will be happy. If he isn't, they won't be.

There's plenty of incentive on his side to accept an offer sheet, provided he's confident that the Leafs would match (and, if they're not indicating otherwise and showing they're willing to trade him, he should be confident that they'd match anything below the 4 1st rounder compensation).

 

[princedpw]

I don't buy for a second that all that many fans would care about Marner choosing to sign a slightly higher offer sheet provided the Leafs match and he plays well.

Likewise, if he signs somewhere else and the Leafs don't match he'll be unpopular here regardless of the terms of the offer sheet. I don't think "Yeah he left, but he left for an extra 7 million as opposed to 3.5" is going to win too many fans over.

Yeah, if Mitch Marner is in a Leafs jersey next year, fans will be happy. If he isn't, they won't be.

There's plenty of incentive on his side to accept an offer sheet, provided he's confident that the Leafs would match (and, if they're not indicating otherwise and showing they're willing to trade him, he should be confident that they'd match anything below the 4 1st rounder compensation).

If I were Mitch (and maybe I am, you never know on the internet), I would show the offer sheet to the leafs as evidence of my worth, have a discussion, and hope that gives me a little more negotiating leverage. If Dubas says he can?t go that high, I wouldn?t sign it.  Too much risk for not enough gain.  I like my teammates. I like my city. I enjoy singing Bon Jovi on the bench. My linemates look like they are going to give me pretty much the best possible chance to maximize my on-ice success. I?ve got a bunch of endorsements that can make up a chunk of the difference and increase my stardom.  Yes, for the sake of status, i?d like a higher number but I don?t think I?d risk all the other things for $73.5 million (10.5) vs $66.5 million (9.5) over the next 7 years (for example).  But that?s just me and I may or may not be Mitch.

 

[Bender]

I don't buy for a second that all that many fans would care about Marner choosing to sign a slightly higher offer sheet provided the Leafs match and he plays well.

Likewise, if he signs somewhere else and the Leafs don't match he'll be unpopular here regardless of the terms of the offer sheet. I don't think "Yeah he left, but he left for an extra 7 million as opposed to 3.5" is going to win too many fans over.

Yeah, if Mitch Marner is in a Leafs jersey next year, fans will be happy. If he isn't, they won't be.

There's plenty of incentive on his side to accept an offer sheet, provided he's confident that the Leafs would match (and, if they're not indicating otherwise and showing they're willing to trade him, he should be confident that they'd match anything below the 4 1st rounder compensation).

Worst case you have a player getting $1m more above market value. Although you've got to wonder what his trade value is if a team is willing to sign him to that high a price. I'm not sure too many teams will use the offer sheet, I think it leads to too much bad blood and makes it impossible to negotiate a deal again in good faith for a long time. The question in my mind is when does the contract become a poison pill? What is someone offers him $11m, however unlikely. Do you take the picks or do you sign and hope to trade?

 

[Kin]

If I were Mitch (and maybe I am, you never know on the internet), I would show the offer sheet to the leafs as evidence of my worth, have a discussion, and hope that gives me a little more negotiating leverage. If Dubas says he can?t go that high, I wouldn?t sign it.  Too much risk for not enough gain.  I like my teammates. I like my city. I enjoy singing Bon Jovi on the bench. My linemates look like they are going to give me pretty much the best possible chance to maximize my on-ice success. I?ve got a bunch of endorsements that can make up a chunk of the difference and increase my stardom.  Yes, for the sake of status, i?d like a higher number but I don?t think I?d risk all the other things for $73.5 million (10.5) vs $66.5 million (9.5) over the next 7 years (for example).  But that?s just me and I may or may not be Mitch.

Leaving aside how much some of those factors are likely to matter to Mitch or you(can't you sing Bon Jovi on other teams?), I think something we saw with the Matthews deal is that if the number being offered isn't one Marner is thrilled with he's not likely to take it at 7 years vs. a significantly shorter term. If Marner thinks he's worth more than 9.5 now, he's sure as heck going to think his UFA years are worth more than that.

 

[Chris]

I don't buy for a second that all that many fans would care about Marner choosing to sign a slightly higher offer sheet provided the Leafs match and he plays well.

Likewise, if he signs somewhere else and the Leafs don't match he'll be unpopular here regardless of the terms of the offer sheet. I don't think "Yeah he left, but he left for an extra 7 million as opposed to 3.5" is going to win too many fans over.

Yeah, if Mitch Marner is in a Leafs jersey next year, fans will be happy. If he isn't, they won't be.

There's plenty of incentive on his side to accept an offer sheet, provided he's confident that the Leafs would match (and, if they're not indicating otherwise and showing they're willing to trade him, he should be confident that they'd match anything below the 4 1st rounder compensation).

If I were Mitch (and maybe I am, you never know on the internet), I would show the offer sheet to the leafs as evidence of my worth, have a discussion, and hope that gives me a little more negotiating leverage. If Dubas says he can?t go that high, I wouldn?t sign it.  Too much risk for not enough gain.  I like my teammates. I like my city. I enjoy singing Bon Jovi on the bench. My linemates look like they are going to give me pretty much the best possible chance to maximize my on-ice success. I?ve got a bunch of endorsements that can make up a chunk of the difference and increase my stardom.  Yes, for the sake of status, i?d like a higher number but I don?t think I?d risk all the other things for $73.5 million (10.5) vs $66.5 million (9.5) over the next 7 years (for example).  But that?s just me and I may or may not be Mitch.

I hope you're Mitch! I'd like to believe it isn't all about the money for Mitch, and that the stuff we're hearing is coming from his father.

As for the fans, not sure how well they'll react if Mitch and his crew hold the Leafs hostage for a ridiculous salary that handcuffs the team in other areas. Yeah, a defense with Holl and Marincin playing major minutes sounds great! Stanley Cup, here we come.

 

[Zee]

I don't buy for a second that all that many fans would care about Marner choosing to sign a slightly higher offer sheet provided the Leafs match and he plays well.

Likewise, if he signs somewhere else and the Leafs don't match he'll be unpopular here regardless of the terms of the offer sheet. I don't think "Yeah he left, but he left for an extra 7 million as opposed to 3.5" is going to win too many fans over.

Yeah, if Mitch Marner is in a Leafs jersey next year, fans will be happy. If he isn't, they won't be.

There's plenty of incentive on his side to accept an offer sheet, provided he's confident that the Leafs would match (and, if they're not indicating otherwise and showing they're willing to trade him, he should be confident that they'd match anything below the 4 1st rounder compensation).

Worst case you have a player getting $1m more above market value. Although you've got to wonder what his trade value is if a team is willing to sign him to that high a price. I'm not sure too many teams will use the offer sheet, I think it leads to too much bad blood and makes it impossible to negotiate a deal again in good faith for a long time. The question in my mind is when does the contract become a poison pill? What is someone offers him $11m, however unlikely. Do you take the picks or do you sign and hope to trade?

I think at 11, you think long and hard about the 4 first rounders depending on which team he's signing for.  Leafs can take that cap space and go into the UFA market for 1 or 2 other players to replace Mitch and then hope that 1 or 2 of the first rounders are top 10, OR you can use the first rounders as currency to trade for someone good.  What's 2 first round unprotected picks worth?  Probably a lot.  Trade 2, keep 2, the possibilities are there.

This all assumes some mythical offer sheet appears, I'm still not 100% sold on that.  GMs don't want to do that because it'll affect their own team's salary structure, and inflate the overall market for players which is bad for all teams.  It's not collusion, but it's an unsaid rule that offer sheets are no good for anybody.