Mitch Marner: what now?

[Bill_Berg]

Well fair enough. I hope the GMs of other teams don't agree with you or we'll be looking at four firsts of unknown value.

 

[Kin]

Well fair enough. I hope the GMs of other teams don't agree with you or we'll be looking at four firsts of unknown value.

Well, if Dubas agrees with me it won't matter as he'd match an offer sheet. Which, for the record, I think is the smart move. Match the offer sheet, let Marner play for a year or so and if you dont like his contract trade him while in the drivers seat.

Basically do what Nashville did with Weber. That worked out ok.

 

[ZBBM]

This all assumes Marner wants to leave Toronto.  And there are many reasons why he may well not want to.

More to the point, it also assumes Kypreos isn't pulling this out of his posterior.  I clasp hands with busta on that score.

 

[Bill_Berg]

Well fair enough. I hope the GMs of other teams don't agree with you or we'll be looking at four firsts of unknown value.

Well, if Dubas agrees with me it won't matter as he'd match an offer sheet. Which, for the record, I think is the smart move. Match the offer sheet, let Marner play for a year or so and if you dont like his contract trade him while in the drivers seat.

Basically do what Nashville did with Weber. That worked out ok.

Depends on what the offersheet is too though. Or would you pay him max dollars?

 

[Kin]

Well fair enough. I hope the GMs of other teams don't agree with you or we'll be looking at four firsts of unknown value.

Well, if Dubas agrees with me it won't matter as he'd match an offer sheet. Which, for the record, I think is the smart move. Match the offer sheet, let Marner play for a year or so and if you dont like his contract trade him while in the drivers seat.

Basically do what Nashville did with Weber. That worked out ok.

Depends on what the offersheet is too though. Or would you pay him max dollars?

Considering they could probably sign him tomorrow for Matthews money I'm not sure that's super relevant.

 

[Bates]

It's not just the 4 firsts that you get from the offer sheet, you also get to use the Cap Space. So it is possible you could sign a free agent that is 80% Marner and still get 4 firsts.

 

[Kin]

This all assumes Marner wants to leave Toronto.  And there are many reasons why he may well not want to.

I'm pretty sure it in no way assumes that. It assumes that Marner would be receptive to other offers if the Leafs don't meet his price.

That seems like a pretty fair assumption considering it's true of most hockey players and Marner isn't signed already. If he wasn't even willing to entertain leaving it seems unlikely that he'd be fighting tooth and nail on this contract.

 

[Bullfrog]

https://twitter.com/account4hockey/status/1141114401048748032
https://twitter.com/account4hockey/status/1141108978417618944

Tweet 1: Marner doesn't care about comparables. Tweet 2: compared to these deals, Marner thinks he should get X.

:-\

 

[Kin]

I think the suggestion there is that Marner isn't interested in the other RFA wingers who a lot of people thought would set his market. Rather he may be of the opinion, as has been suggested by yours truly, that the difference between RFA and UFA payscale is an entirely artificial concept pushed by GMs and Marner is going to look at UFA numbers when negotiating his deal.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/hailey_salvian/status/1141146953914441729

 

[herman]

 

[princedpw]

Nik, from the collection of comments you?ve made about Marner and Nylander, it *seems* like you are *hoping* that they sign contracts that are much higher than other commentators predict.  For instance, Mirtle predicted Nylander in the 6.5-7 range (as I recall) and it seemed as though you were pushing Draisatl when others were comparing with Ehlers and Pasternak.  A number of analysts have suggested roughly 9-9.5 for roughly 6 years for Marner is reasonable.  You seem to be talking favorably about numbers in the 11 million range, which would put him in the top 5 players in the league at any position.

My question isn?t about who is going to wind up right or wrong (we?ll find out soon enough, but I don?t really care!) or what method is best for projecting player salaries or who is comparable to who.  Rather, I can?t help but notice that you always seem to be on the high side of just about everyone else and it seems from your tone that you?d be happier if Marner got 11, 12 million than if he got 9 million.

Am I getting that wrong?

 

[Bill_Berg]

Well fair enough. I hope the GMs of other teams don't agree with you or we'll be looking at four firsts of unknown value.

Well, if Dubas agrees with me it won't matter as he'd match an offer sheet. Which, for the record, I think is the smart move. Match the offer sheet, let Marner play for a year or so and if you dont like his contract trade him while in the drivers seat.

Basically do what Nashville did with Weber. That worked out ok.

Depends on what the offersheet is too though. Or would you pay him max dollars?

Considering they could probably sign him tomorrow for Matthews money I'm not sure that's super relevant.

It will be if some team throws 13 million at him.

 

[mr grieves]

This all assumes Marner wants to leave Toronto.  And there are many reasons why he may well not want to.

Signing an offer sheet doesn't necessarily mean he wants to leave Toronto -- it might mean he wants to use what little leverage he has an RFA to force the team that holds his rights to pay him what he thinks he's worth.

Not that I think Dubas ought to look at it that way.

 

[Zee]

I hope Paul is happy he's managed to get a large portion of the fanbase turning on his kid.

 

[herman]

The RFA salary ?system? artificially devalues performance when players are at their peak, and the UFA market overvalues current performance from past achievements.

It?s good that RFA contracts are trending up for the superstars. Sucks a bit that we have three in the vanguard, but this is the new reality and honestly, Nylander should?ve been paid more.

 

[Zee]

The RFA salary ?system? artificially devalues performance when players are at their peak, and the UFA market overvalues current performance from past achievements.

It?s good that RFA contracts are trending up for the superstars. Sucks a bit that we have three in the vanguard, but this is the new reality and honestly, Nylander should?ve been paid more.

It's kind of funny that the contract people were complaining about turns out to be the best value deal of the 3. Imagine if the Leafs had signed Marner last summer at the reported 8x$9M before Nylander signed.  Nylander would have demanded something closer to that number since the previous 2 seasons were comparable to Marner and he would have been justified in doing so. 

 

[bustaheims]

It will be if some team throws 13 million at him.

I can't see any team making Marner the highest paid player in the league. For better or worse, McDavid's contract has basically set an artificial cap on individual contracts.

 

[Zee]

It will be if some team throws 13 million at him.

I can't see any team making Marner the highest paid player in the league. For better or worse, McDavid's contract has basically set an artificial cap on individual contracts.

Thought you could poach JT without any repercussions?    How does a max $16.4M x 7 year contract sound Mitch?

 

[ZBBM]

This all assumes Marner wants to leave Toronto.  And there are many reasons why he may well not want to.

I'm pretty sure it in no way assumes that. It assumes that Marner would be receptive to other offers if the Leafs don't meet his price.

That seems like a pretty fair assumption considering it's true of most hockey players and Marner isn't signed already. If he wasn't even willing to entertain leaving it seems unlikely that he'd be fighting tooth and nail on this contract.

All I'm saying is that we were told last summer that the money trumps everything for big name UFAs.  Then it turned out that sometimes it's bedsheets.