Mitch Marner: what now?

[Zee]

Something to keep in mind re: the Marleau trade is that a lot of the conjecture about an offer sheet was based on the Leafs inability to match. If the Leafs have ample space to match even a 12 million per year offer sheet then actually making the offer serves no real purpose other than inflating salaries, something we've seen that NHL GMs don't like doing.

So the net result of the Marleau trade might not just be keeping Kapanen and Johnsson, it might also really be a kick in the goolies to Marner's leverage.

Good point. Leafs can safely defend any imaginary offer sheet now. Your move Paul Marner.

 

[Kin]

Just for fun, to take the other side of the argument: this theory rests on the assumption that 30 other GMs think paying Marner (say) $11M is a vast overpayment.  If I'm a GM sitting in my office this afternoon, I am thinking about how to make my team better, not the league's overall salary structure.  And at least some of those GMs would love to have Marner on their team, even at $11 or $11 and a bit more, and could do it given their current situation.  Why not take a high shot with an offer sheet?  Worst case is you win.

Well, no. Worst case scenario is you lose and then you have to enter your next negotiation with one of your best players and have them say "Oh, so you think Marner is worth 11 million and 4 first round picks but I'm not worth what I'm asking?"

The leaguewide salary structure directly impacts all of these GMs and their ability to make their teams better. The RFA market being dead helps them all. As the Leafs are learning with Tavares, you can't go out and spend 11 million on a free agent and then not be in some cap trouble a few years out so anyone making that offer to Mitch will then be vulnerable to a similar thing themselves.

 

[Bates]

Realistically what teams can and might offer sheet Marner?

 

[ZBBM]

Just for fun, to take the other side of the argument: this theory rests on the assumption that 30 other GMs think paying Marner (say) $11M is a vast overpayment.  If I'm a GM sitting in my office this afternoon, I am thinking about how to make my team better, not the league's overall salary structure.  And at least some of those GMs would love to have Marner on their team, even at $11 or $11 and a bit more, and could do it given their current situation.  Why not take a high shot with an offer sheet?  Worst case is you win.

Well, no. Worst case scenario is you lose and then you have to enter your next negotiation with one of your best players and have them say "Oh, so you think Marner is worth 11 million and 4 first round picks but I'm not worth what I'm asking?"

The leaguewide salary structure directly impacts all of these GMs and their ability to make their teams better. The RFA market being dead helps them all. As the Leafs are learning with Tavares, you can't go out and spend 11 million on a free agent and then not be in some cap trouble a few years out so anyone making that offer to Mitch will then be vulnerable to a similar thing themselves.

That would certainly apply to those teams that have a pending FA at the level of Marner.  But they wouldn't be the ones tempted to do an OS anyway.

Like I said, not much impact there one way or the other (in terms of likelihood).  Lots of impact, obviously, on defendability.

 

[Kin]

That would certainly apply to those teams that have a pending FA at the level of Marner.  But they wouldn't be the ones tempted to do an OS anyway.

No, because as people have mentioned there was an excellent chance that the Leafs were going to match on Marner no matter what. The real consequence of opening up the RFA market will be for the mid-tier guys whose leaving via offer sheet wouldn't return all that much pick wise. Kapanen or Johnsson, for instance, would have been very vulnerable to that if the RFA market was alive.

I think your imaginary team that has a ton of cap space, a willingness to lose 4 firsts and no potentially tricky RFA negotiations on the horizon just doesn't exist.

 

[ZBBM]

That would certainly apply to those teams that have a pending FA at the level of Marner.  But they wouldn't be the ones tempted to do an OS anyway.

No, because as people have mentioned there was an excellent chance that the Leafs were going to match on Marner no matter what. The real consequence of opening up the RFA market will be for the mid-tier guys whose leaving via offer sheet wouldn't return all that much pick wise. Kapanen or Johnsson, for instance, would have been very vulnerable to that if the RFA market was alive.

I think your imaginary team that has a ton of cap space, a willingness to lose 4 firsts and no potentially tricky RFA negotiations on the horizon just doesn't exist.

I agree 100% on all points.  That's why, when we switch from Speculation Land to the real world, dumping Marleau's contract doesn't make much difference one way or the other with respect to Marner.  An OS to a superstar isn't likely in the first place.

 

[rdowdall]

https://twitter.com/PierreVLeBrun/status/1142506591037677574

 

[Bates]

That would certainly apply to those teams that have a pending FA at the level of Marner.  But they wouldn't be the ones tempted to do an OS anyway.

No, because as people have mentioned there was an excellent chance that the Leafs were going to match on Marner no matter what. The real consequence of opening up the RFA market will be for the mid-tier guys whose leaving via offer sheet wouldn't return all that much pick wise. Kapanen or Johnsson, for instance, would have been very vulnerable to that if the RFA market was alive.

I think your imaginary team that has a ton of cap space, a willingness to lose 4 firsts and no potentially tricky RFA negotiations on the horizon just doesn't exist.

I agree 100% on all points.  That's why, when we switch from Speculation Land to the real world, dumping Marleau's contract doesn't make much difference one way or the other with respect to Marner.  An OS to a superstar isn't likely in the first place.

It does provide the Cap Space to sign Marner and help fill out the roster.  We will probably get both of Kap and Johsson for Marleau's Cap.

 

[Kin]

I agree 100% on all points.  That's why, when we switch from Speculation Land to the real world, dumping Marleau's contract doesn't make much difference one way or the other with respect to Marner.  An OS to a superstar isn't likely in the first place.

Not likely, no. But there's a difference between not likely and completely meaningless which this sort of ensures.

 

[ZBBM]

I agree 100% on all points.  That's why, when we switch from Speculation Land to the real world, dumping Marleau's contract doesn't make much difference one way or the other with respect to Marner.  An OS to a superstar isn't likely in the first place.

Not likely, no. But there's a difference between not likely and completely meaningless which this sort of ensures.

OK, if that's what it comes down to.  I was just taking the other side to explore the rationale a bit.

 

[ZBBM]

That would certainly apply to those teams that have a pending FA at the level of Marner.  But they wouldn't be the ones tempted to do an OS anyway.

No, because as people have mentioned there was an excellent chance that the Leafs were going to match on Marner no matter what. The real consequence of opening up the RFA market will be for the mid-tier guys whose leaving via offer sheet wouldn't return all that much pick wise. Kapanen or Johnsson, for instance, would have been very vulnerable to that if the RFA market was alive.

I think your imaginary team that has a ton of cap space, a willingness to lose 4 firsts and no potentially tricky RFA negotiations on the horizon just doesn't exist.

I agree 100% on all points.  That's why, when we switch from Speculation Land to the real world, dumping Marleau's contract doesn't make much difference one way or the other with respect to Marner.  An OS to a superstar isn't likely in the first place.

It does provide the Cap Space to sign Marner and help fill out the roster.  We will probably get both of Kap and Johsson for Marleau's Cap.

I hope so.  Still, both of those moves address the front end, which isn't where the team's biggest weakness is.  If Zaitsev really is considered a liability (which I don't entirely buy) there's going to have to be some cleverness applied to the blueline.

 

[Redleaf]

That would certainly apply to those teams that have a pending FA at the level of Marner.  But they wouldn't be the ones tempted to do an OS anyway.

No, because as people have mentioned there was an excellent chance that the Leafs were going to match on Marner no matter what. The real consequence of opening up the RFA market will be for the mid-tier guys whose leaving via offer sheet wouldn't return all that much pick wise. Kapanen or Johnsson, for instance, would have been very vulnerable to that if the RFA market was alive.

I think your imaginary team that has a ton of cap space, a willingness to lose 4 firsts and no potentially tricky RFA negotiations on the horizon just doesn't exist.

I agree 100% on all points.  That's why, when we switch from Speculation Land to the real world, dumping Marleau's contract doesn't make much difference one way or the other with respect to Marner.  An OS to a superstar isn't likely in the first place.

It does provide the Cap Space to sign Marner and help fill out the roster.  We will probably get both of Kap and Johsson for Marleau's Cap.

I hope so.  Still, both of those moves address the front end, which isn't where the team's biggest weakness is.  If Zaitsev really is considered a liability (which I don't entirely buy) there's going to have to be some cleverness applied to the blueline.

My hope is that a sign-and-trade is in the works with either Kapanen or Johnsson, for a solid D-Man.

So many skilled forwards once these guys (and Marner) are signed. But so few skilled defenders, especially if Gardiner & Zaitsev are on their way out.

Too lopsided a mix to be a legit contender. At least that's my take.

 

[Bates]

That would certainly apply to those teams that have a pending FA at the level of Marner.  But they wouldn't be the ones tempted to do an OS anyway.

No, because as people have mentioned there was an excellent chance that the Leafs were going to match on Marner no matter what. The real consequence of opening up the RFA market will be for the mid-tier guys whose leaving via offer sheet wouldn't return all that much pick wise. Kapanen or Johnsson, for instance, would have been very vulnerable to that if the RFA market was alive.

I think your imaginary team that has a ton of cap space, a willingness to lose 4 firsts and no potentially tricky RFA negotiations on the horizon just doesn't exist.

I agree 100% on all points.  That's why, when we switch from Speculation Land to the real world, dumping Marleau's contract doesn't make much difference one way or the other with respect to Marner.  An OS to a superstar isn't likely in the first place.

It does provide the Cap Space to sign Marner and help fill out the roster.  We will probably get both of Kap and Johsson for Marleau's Cap.

I hope so.  Still, both of those moves address the front end, which isn't where the team's biggest weakness is.  If Zaitsev really is considered a liability (which I don't entirely buy) there's going to have to be some cleverness applied to the blueline.

I don't think we can addresses everything this year, I suspect a piecemeal D is what we can expect this season.

 

[Hobbes]

With the Leafs having been reportedly kicking tires on Suban, what if the expectation is that Marner will sign an offer sheet and the plan is simply to let him go, take the four first round picks, and use that ~$10M space to go out and get a legit top pairing right D. Trading for one would certainly be a possibility since we do have a few assets and could potentially throw in one or more of those newly-acquired 1sts. Maybe some rebuilding team like LA would take Zaitsev and 3 of those firsts in trade for Doughty?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

With the Leafs having been reportedly kicking tires on Suban, what if the expectation is that Marner will sign an offer sheet and the plan is simply to let him go, take the four first round picks, and use that ~$10M space to go out and get a legit top pairing right D. Trading for one would certainly be a possibility since we do have a few assets and could potentially throw in one or more of those newly-acquired 1sts. Maybe some rebuilding team like LA would take Zaitsev and 3 of those firsts in trade for Doughty?

LeBrun said Subban would have only worked here if Nashville ate $3mil-ish, so I don't think that was connected to Marner being OS'd.

 

[Phileas Fogg]

Maybe some rebuilding team like LA would take Zaitsev and 3 of those firsts in trade for Doughty?

I personally wouldn't trade Marner for Doughty straight up, let alone give up 3 firsts for him.

 

[Hobbes]

Maybe some rebuilding team like LA would take Zaitsev and 3 of those firsts in trade for Doughty?

I personally wouldn't trade Marner for Doughty straight up, let alone give up 3 firsts for him.

The net effect would be trading Marner for Doughty and 1 first and also getting out from under Zaitsev's contract (= another $4M+ in cap space). Those wouldn't be our firsts...they'd be the ones coming from the team that offer-sheeted Marner away.

With the Leafs having been reportedly kicking tires on Suban, what if the expectation is that Marner will sign an offer sheet and the plan is simply to let him go, take the four first round picks, and use that ~$10M space to go out and get a legit top pairing right D. Trading for one would certainly be a possibility since we do have a few assets and could potentially throw in one or more of those newly-acquired 1sts. Maybe some rebuilding team like LA would take Zaitsev and 3 of those firsts in trade for Doughty?

LeBrun said Subban would have only worked here if Nashville ate $3mil-ish, so I don't think that was connected to Marner being OS'd.

Or would have worked for the Leafs if they didn't have Marner on the books...they would then easily have the full $9M available for Suban's contract plus the four 1sts in compensation for Marner.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/PierreVLeBrun/status/1142506591037677574

Welcome back, SI!

 

[Highlander]

Maybe some rebuilding team like LA would take Zaitsev and 3 of those firsts in trade for Doughty?

I personally wouldn't trade Marner for Doughty straight up, let alone give up 3 firsts for him.

The net effect would be trading Marner for Doughty and 1 first and also getting out from under Zaitsev's contract (= another $4M+ in cap space). Those wouldn't be our firsts...they'd be the ones coming from the team that offer-sheeted Marner away.

With the Leafs having been reportedly kicking tires on Suban, what if the expectation is that Marner will sign an offer sheet and the plan is simply to let him go, take the four first round picks, and use that ~$10M space to go out and get a legit top pairing right D. Trading for one would certainly be a possibility since we do have a few assets and could potentially throw in one or more of those newly-acquired 1sts. Maybe some rebuilding team like LA would take Zaitsev and 3 of those firsts in trade for Doughty?

LeBrun said Subban would have only worked here if Nashville ate $3mil-ish, so I don't think that was connected to Marner being OS'd.

Or would have worked for the Leafs if they didn't have Marner on the books...they would then easily have the full $9M available for Suban's contract plus the four 1sts in compensation for Marner.

Forget Subban, his is a Devil!

 

[rdowdall]

https://twitter.com/PierreVLeBrun/status/1142506591037677574

Welcome back, SI!

Thanks Herman.  It has been a while since I posted.  I popped in here and there to take the temperature of the fan base, but didn't really have time to post anything.