Mitch Marner: what now?

[herman]

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/will-harder-maple-leafs-keep-mitch-marner-season-begins/

CJ

 

[disco]

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/will-harder-maple-leafs-keep-mitch-marner-season-begins/

CJ

Chris Johnston's clean-shaven profile pic desperately needs updating.
#JohnstonsBeard

 

[herman]

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/will-harder-maple-leafs-keep-mitch-marner-season-begins/

CJ

Chris Johnston's clean-shaven profile pic desperately needs updating.
#JohnstonsBeard

Wait who is CJ?s beard?

 

[disco]

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/will-harder-maple-leafs-keep-mitch-marner-season-begins/

CJ

Chris Johnston's clean-shaven profile pic desperately needs updating.
#JohnstonsBeard

Wait who is CJ?s beard?

His Sportsnet profile pic. It's clean-shaven. CJ's been allowed to have that glorious soup-strainer for quite some time now. I think the hashtag would just be a great name for a band.

 

[4EVRLEAFAN]

Ok we need to put this aside for a bit there's a more pressing question that needs to be asked. What the F is with the cheesy stash on Matthews  ;D ;D

 

[hockeyfan1]

The article from The Athletic that someone (Bender) mentioned earlier:

Team executive: ?To be a fair contract is five years at around $10.5 million AAV, which puts him above Eichel but behind Matthews. Whether you like it or not if you?re Marner, I think you have to account for a five to 10 percent premium for goal scoring and Matthews is a better goal scorer. There?s a premium for goal scorers.?

The team executive added that going five years would be obviously desirable for Marner, walking him right into the UFA market. The Leafs would hate that, the executive said, but get the AAV they can live with over five years.?

https://theathletic.com/1204102/2019/09/12/lebrun-whats-a-fair-contract-for-mitch-marner-nhl-executives-agents-weigh-in/

 

[rdowdall]

I think if they can get Marner on a three year deal, where the last year is lower salary than the first year and there is a year in their where he makes more than Matthews, then I think you can complete a deal in three years where Marner makes more than Matthews on a 5 year deal

 

[herman]

https://theathletic.com/1207482/2019/09/13/mirtle-why-the-maple-leafs-and-kyle-dubas-need-to-issue-an-ultimatum-to-the-marner-camp/

And every day Marner doesn?t sign after Oct. 2 will bloat Year 1 of his contract more and more, likely beyond what the Leafs can afford.

The three approximate offers I?m told the Leafs have had on the table at various points the past two months are three years at $8.75-million, six years at $10.5-million and seven years at $11-million a season. In order to highlight how waiting into the season will affect those deals, I calculated what the Year 1 cap hit would look like on all three contracts on Oct. 15, Nov. 1 and Dec. 1.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/reporterchris/status/1172510872851423233

Dubas should have leaked that Marner turned down the Tavares deal a month ago.

 

[Zee]

I mean, it goes without saying a deal has to be done by season start, but I'm finally optimistic it's really happening now.  As of last night, the Marner family mouth-piece Darren Dreger finally changed his tune and started dropping a "I'm optimistic" and "I'm a glass half full kind of guy".  So I think Marner's camp let Dreger know they're close to signing, which is why he's all of a sudden reporting good vibes.

 

[herman]

Dubas should have leaked that Marner turned down the Tavares deal a month ago.

Why even bother trying to be professional anymore, if being dastardly works so much more effectively.

 

[ZBBM]

Of course he's going to sign before the season starts, now that the Leafs have positioned it so that their offer necessarily goes down after that.  If he were even remotely thinking about wanting to leave, his "camp" (what a weird term) would have let something out by now.  And obviously no offer sheet was ever forthcoming.

If they really have offered him 7x11 he's be a monumental fool not to take it.  Set for life, likely forever popular in his home town, good chance to win a Cup, gets his "C" after Matthews decamps for The Valley of the Sun.

 

[Zee]

Of course he's going to sign before the season starts, now that the Leafs have positioned it so that their offer necessarily goes down after that.  If he were even remotely thinking about wanting to leave, his "camp" (what a weird term) would have let something out by now.  And obviously no offer sheet was ever forthcoming.

If they really have offered him 7x11 he's be a monumental fool not to take it.  Set for life, likely forever popular in his home town, good chance to win a Cup, gets his "C" after Matthews decamps for The Valley of the Sun.

Not only set for life, but Marner is what?  22?  If he signs 6 or 7 years he'll STILL get another contract at 28/29 which will be worth tens of millions more like Tavares got at 27 years old. 

 

[ZBBM]

Of course he's going to sign before the season starts, now that the Leafs have positioned it so that their offer necessarily goes down after that.  If he were even remotely thinking about wanting to leave, his "camp" (what a weird term) would have let something out by now.  And obviously no offer sheet was ever forthcoming.

If they really have offered him 7x11 he's be a monumental fool not to take it.  Set for life, likely forever popular in his home town, good chance to win a Cup, gets his "C" after Matthews decamps for The Valley of the Sun.

Not only set for life, but Marner is what?  22?  If he signs 6 or 7 years he'll STILL get another contract at 28/29 which will be worth tens of millions more like Tavares got at 27 years old.

Good point.  He'll not only be set for life, but the afterlife, too.

The only guy that I personally know who's set like that is God.

 

[Coco-puffs]

Of course he's going to sign before the season starts, now that the Leafs have positioned it so that their offer necessarily goes down after that.  If he were even remotely thinking about wanting to leave, his "camp" (what a weird term) would have let something out by now.  And obviously no offer sheet was ever forthcoming.

If they really have offered him 7x11 he's be a monumental fool not to take it.  Set for life, likely forever popular in his home town, good chance to win a Cup, gets his "C" after Matthews decamps for The Valley of the Sun.

Why would he take 7x11 if he thinks he can get 3x9 and then get another big contract in three years?

7 x 11 = 77M
3 x 9 + 4 x 13 = 79M

While 13M sounds crazy now, in 3 years there will be a new US TV deal.  Increasing the US TV deal from 200M US per year to likely 1B US per year would increase the cap by 10M all in one shot, plus a small amount of growth each year until that point.  13.4% of the cap is 7x11 right now... it be easy for him to say three years from now he finally wants that 13.4% of the cap, especially since most of those will be UFA years.  That is probably his BASELINE and more is possible.

I don't blame the players for wanting to go shorter term. 

 

[mr grieves]

Dubas should have leaked that Marner turned down the Tavares deal a month ago.

Why even bother trying to be professional anymore, if being dastardly works so much more effectively.

Is it even outside of the scope of an agent's or GM's professional duties to do this?

They're in an entertainment industry that attracts a lot of public attention, about which a lot of consumers have various feelings and on which they'll act in various ways. Why wouldn't a worker's rep leak stories about his client being treated unfairly by the bosses if it can result in public pressure on the employer to do better by the worker? Why wouldn't a manager do the same about an employee's poor behavior if it can result in public pressure on the employee to behave in way the employer would prefer?

Seems to me neither side is doing their job very effectively if they aren't trying to use all tools available to get the outcome they want. We accept and expect such uses of the media and public relations in the movie, TV, and record businesses, and professional sport is a closer to those businesses than most others.

 

[princedpw]

https://theathletic.com/1207482/2019/09/13/mirtle-why-the-maple-leafs-and-kyle-dubas-need-to-issue-an-ultimatum-to-the-marner-camp/

And every day Marner doesn?t sign after Oct. 2 will bloat Year 1 of his contract more and more, likely beyond what the Leafs can afford.

The three approximate offers I?m told the Leafs have had on the table at various points the past two months are three years at $8.75-million, six years at $10.5-million and seven years at $11-million a season. In order to highlight how waiting into the season will affect those deals, I calculated what the Year 1 cap hit would look like on all three contracts on Oct. 15, Nov. 1 and Dec. 1.

My takeaway from this article is that if Marner wants a 3-year deal and the leafs want a longer one then Marner can maximize his 3-year payout by holding out and taking longer deals off the table.

 

[ZBBM]

Of course he's going to sign before the season starts, now that the Leafs have positioned it so that their offer necessarily goes down after that.  If he were even remotely thinking about wanting to leave, his "camp" (what a weird term) would have let something out by now.  And obviously no offer sheet was ever forthcoming.

If they really have offered him 7x11 he's be a monumental fool not to take it.  Set for life, likely forever popular in his home town, good chance to win a Cup, gets his "C" after Matthews decamps for The Valley of the Sun.

Why would he take 7x11 if he thinks he can get 3x9 and then get another big contract in three years?

7 x 11 = 77M
3 x 9 + 4 x 13 = 79M

While 13M sounds crazy now, in 3 years there will be a new US TV deal.  Increasing the US TV deal from 200M US per year to likely 1B US per year would increase the cap by 10M all in one shot, plus a small amount of growth each year until that point.  13.4% of the cap is 7x11 right now... it be easy for him to say three years from now he finally wants that 13.4% of the cap, especially since most of those will be UFA years.  That is probably his BASELINE and more is possible.

I don't blame the players for wanting to go shorter term.

Because a bird in the hand is better than two in the bush.

I made that up just now, BTW.

 

[Highlander]

Of course he's going to sign before the season starts, now that the Leafs have positioned it so that their offer necessarily goes down after that.  If he were even remotely thinking about wanting to leave, his "camp" (what a weird term) would have let something out by now.  And obviously no offer sheet was ever forthcoming.

If they really have offered him 7x11 he's be a monumental fool not to take it.  Set for life, likely forever popular in his home town, good chance to win a Cup, gets his "C" after Matthews decamps for The Valley of the Sun.

Not only set for life, but Marner is what?  22?  If he signs 6 or 7 years he'll STILL get another contract at 28/29 which will be worth tens of millions more like Tavares got at 27 years old.

Good point.  He'll not only be set for life, but the afterlife, too.

The only guy that I personally know who's set like that is God.

And it was in the paper today that Marner is getting 2 Million a year in endorsements, about what I thought he was getting.  Kiss that all goodbye in another market Mitch!  If you stay with the Leafs you can probably get that up to 3 or more over the years.  Whoever is advising you in nuts,  7X11.  Hell your still only 12 in our eyes. 

 

[Coco-puffs]

Of course he's going to sign before the season starts, now that the Leafs have positioned it so that their offer necessarily goes down after that.  If he were even remotely thinking about wanting to leave, his "camp" (what a weird term) would have let something out by now.  And obviously no offer sheet was ever forthcoming.

If they really have offered him 7x11 he's be a monumental fool not to take it.  Set for life, likely forever popular in his home town, good chance to win a Cup, gets his "C" after Matthews decamps for The Valley of the Sun.

Why would he take 7x11 if he thinks he can get 3x9 and then get another big contract in three years?

7 x 11 = 77M
3 x 9 + 4 x 13 = 79M

While 13M sounds crazy now, in 3 years there will be a new US TV deal.  Increasing the US TV deal from 200M US per year to likely 1B US per year would increase the cap by 10M all in one shot, plus a small amount of growth each year until that point.  13.4% of the cap is 7x11 right now... it be easy for him to say three years from now he finally wants that 13.4% of the cap, especially since most of those will be UFA years.  That is probably his BASELINE and more is possible.

I don't blame the players for wanting to go shorter term.

Because a bird in the hand is better than two in the bush.

I made that up just now, BTW.

Bet on yourself.

I made that up just now too, BTW.