Moving forward

[TDotMassive]

I really don't see how either Lupul or Bozak would return "significant assets" at this point.

NIK

that is just his opinion. Bozak is a cap friend contract for a player with 40+ pts. I take a pick for Lupul (I like his play when not injured) IMO I think Kadri, Gardiner and Bernier will all be gone too.

Thank you, though I disagree at least at this moment about Kadri, Gardiner and Bernier. I think they'll all be back and whether they stay or not will depend on the kind of years they have next season and beyond.

Bernier has got to go while he still has value.  He's too old already for the next wave of rebuild, Reimer is more than an adequate starter for the next couple of seasons.  We should be able to get a decent return for Bernier, therefore he should be shipped as getting as many real picks/prospects for the team this year and next is paramount.

 

[Kin]

If Franson and Santo can bring back a 1st round pick and prospect, surely Lupul and Bozak can bring a fair bit more than that.

Franson and Santorelli were short term rentals having good seasons. Lupul and Bozak have considerable term on their deals and are coming off bad seasons. They're in entirely different situations and ones that aren't flattering to either of them. 

Bozak's an especially bad one because no team in their right mind would trade for him and make him their #1 centre and yet basically anything good you could say about him at this point would rely on point totals that are entirely conditional on his being a #1 centre.

If they had value then, no, "just getting their salaries off the books" wouldn't be a significant asset. That you recognize that their contracts stink is exactly why the Leafs would be lucky to give them away.

 

[slapshot]

No one really knows how long this "rebuild" is going to take. It depends on what happens and at what level that gets to...

1. Just making the playoffs
2. Making the playoffs and being competitive, winning some rounds
3. Being a perennial contender

If we're looking at just level 1 for starters that could happen relatively quickly, with a young team that can be built upon. Just look at Calgary or Ottawa. Who would have thought either would be making the playoffs or that guys like Gaudreau or Stone would be making such an impact so quickly. That could happen with Nylander and/or Connor Brown. Not saying it will but it might. If they are unable to offload Kessel and Phanuef they could likewise bring in some pieces that might surprise. Bernier might be just coming into his prime now and have a great year next year, we don't know. As far as them being a perennial cup contender, yes I agree that is a few years off if they get it altogether but how long no one really knows???

 

[slapshot]

If Franson and Santo can bring back a 1st round pick and prospect, surely Lupul and Bozak can bring a fair bit more than that.

Franson and Santorelli were short term rentals having good seasons. Lupul and Bozak have considerable term on their deals and are coming off bad seasons. They're in entirely different situations and ones that aren't flattering to either of them. 

Bozak's an especially bad one because no team in their right mind would trade for him and make him their #1 centre and yet basically anything good you could say about him at this point would rely on point totals that are entirely conditional on his being a #1 centre.

If they had value then, no, "just getting their salaries off the books" wouldn't be a significant asset. That you recognize that their contracts stink is exactly why the Leafs would be lucky to give them away.

No one is suggesting anyone would trade for Bozak as a "number 1 centre." But his contract is not out of line with second line centres. Granted Bozak has stunk down the stretch but he is decent on face-offs, kills penalties and may play better under a different system with different linemates (or maybe not). But I think he will be perceived better around the league than you think. And, teams are sometimes more interested in a guy under contract at the reasonable amount than a short-term rental.
As for Lupul, I agree he will be a harder sell, but just being able to move him and lose the contract is significant. Did anyone not think moving Clarkson was significant? If not, why did Twitter blow up when he got dealt? Getting $5 million in extra cap space is nothing to sneeze at, whether it be Clarkson or Lupul. Only time will tell how this all washes out.

 

[Kin]

No one is suggesting anyone would trade for Bozak as a "number 1 centre." But his contract is not out of line with second line centres. Granted Bozak has stunk down the stretch but he is decent on face-offs, kills penalties and may play better under a different system with different linemates (or maybe not).

For starters, Bozak isn't really a penalty killer. He's averaging about 30 seconds of SH time a night on a not very good PK unit. He's got very little value as a defensive player.

But more to the point while his contract isn't out of line for a second line centre, his production is nowhere near at the level of a good second line centre and the impression that it is is an illusion created by playing with top line quality linemates and an abundance of playing time. A reasonable team will almost certainly pair him with worse linemates, not better ones and his production, which is already fairly anemic, will almost certainly drop.

As for Lupul, I agree he will be a harder sell, but just being able to move him and lose the contract is significant.

Sure, that's why I said the Leafs would be lucky to give him away. It's more likely, though, that they'd have to take back money.

 

[slapshot]

No one is suggesting anyone would trade for Bozak as a "number 1 centre." But his contract is not out of line with second line centres. Granted Bozak has stunk down the stretch but he is decent on face-offs, kills penalties and may play better under a different system with different linemates (or maybe not).

For starters, Bozak isn't really a penalty killer. He's averaging about 30 seconds of SH time a night on a not very good PK unit. He's got very little value as a defensive player.

But more to the point while his contract isn't out of line for a second line centre, his production is nowhere near at the level of a good second line centre and the impression that it is is an illusion created by playing with top line quality linemates and an abundance of playing time. A reasonable team will almost certainly pair him with worse linemates, not better ones and his production, which is already fairly anemic, will almost certainly drop.

As for Lupul, I agree he will be a harder sell, but just being able to move him and lose the contract is significant.

Sure, that's why I said the Leafs would be lucky to give him away. It's more likely, though, that they'd have to take back money.

On Bozak, teams with a good 2nd line centre aren't the ones that would be trading for him. When Bozak was signed last year, most people thought the Leafs got him at a fair price. All I am saying is that I don't think he's perceived around the league as badly as you think and we may still get a decent return for him.

On Lupul, taking money back is just speculation.

 

[Kin]

On Bozak, teams with a good 2nd line centre aren't the ones that would be trading for him. When Bozak was signed last year, most people thought the Leafs got him at a fair price. All I am saying is that I don't think he's perceived around the league as badly as you think and we may still get a decent return for him.

Bozak wasn't signed last year. He was signed two years ago and there was a ton of criticism on this board, as well as elsewhere, about the decision to re-sign him.

And the teams without good second line centres will still want a good second line centre. If they don't have one in their system, they're not going to trade valuable assets to get a bad second line centre. Basically, your whole argument for getting something of significance for Bozak hinges on another team making a trade that you're basically admitting wouldn't really be in their interest. You're hoping a team makes a mistake on him. It's a nice thing to hope but it doesn't really reflect on what his actual value is based on his play the last few seasons.

On Lupul, taking money back is just speculation.

It is, that's why I used the word "likely".

 

[slapshot]

On Bozak, teams with a good 2nd line centre aren't the ones that would be trading for him. When Bozak was signed last year, most people thought the Leafs got him at a fair price. All I am saying is that I don't think he's perceived around the league as badly as you think and we may still get a decent return for him.

Bozak wasn't signed last year. He was signed two years ago and there was a ton of criticism on this board, as well as elsewhere, about the decision to re-sign him.

And the teams without good second line centres will still want a good second line centre. If they don't have one in their system, they're not going to trade valuable assets to get a bad second line centre. Basically, your whole argument for getting something of significance for Bozak hinges on another team making a trade that you're basically admitting wouldn't really be in their interest. You're hoping a team makes a mistake on him. It's a nice thing to hope but it doesn't really reflect on what his actual value is based on his play the last few seasons.

I'm not saying there's a team looking for a "bad" second line centre. I'm saying a team that already has a good one wouldn't be looking for one, so were talking about a team that would see Bozak as an upgrade on what they have at second line right now. Ok, 2 seasons ago, excuse me, regardless, you know what I meant.
And, I not trying to make an "argument," I am only offering an "opinion." I highly doubt teams make trades they don't think is in their best interests. We'll see what Bozak fetches and then people can say whether they think the Leafs made a good deal for him or not.

 

[Kin]

I'm saying a team that already has a good one wouldn't be looking for one, so were talking about a team that would see Bozak as an upgrade on what they have at second line right now..

And a team that isn't patient enough to develop a better one. That's the paradox that renders this all pointless. Either a team would be patient enough to develop a better fit for the position than Bozak or they wouldn't see Bozak as a legitimate solution to whatever goals they were impatient to achieve.

It's certainly not the sort of thing a team will pay heavily for.

 

[caver]

Any thoughts on keeping Brewer as a mentor for the kids ? Or is Robidas the guy for that job ?

 

[Kin]

Any thoughts on keeping Brewer as a mentor for the kids ? Or is Robidas the guy for that job ?

It's not a job that really needs to be filled in the first place.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Any thoughts on keeping Brewer as a mentor for the kids ? Or is Robidas the guy for that job ?

I think we've seen that somebody like Steve Staios can have a much larger impact on guys like Gardiner and Rielly as an assistant coach than a Robidas/Brewer can while playing medicore defence.

 

[Al14]

Any thoughts on keeping Brewer as a mentor for the kids ? Or is Robidas the guy for that job ?

I think we've seen that somebody like Steve Staios can have a much larger impact on guys like Gardiner and Rielly as an assistant coach than a Robidas/Brewer can while playing medicore defence.

Maybe they hire Brewer, or Robidas, as an assistant coach next year?  Assuming they retire as players, of course.

 

[Bullfrog]

I think Bozak's being undersold here a little bit. He's a done a good job of scoring with the opportunities he's been given. As a scoring second line centre, he'd be a decent option on a few teams.

A scoring third line centre is probably the ideal place for him.

 

[Kin]

I think Bozak's being undersold here a little bit. He's a done a good job of scoring with the opportunities he's been given. As a scoring second line centre, he'd be a decent option on a few teams.

I've more or less said my piece on it but I think this right here is very much a point of contention. 5 on 5 he ranks 274th among players who've played 500 minutes in points per 60.

 

[freer]

I think Bozak's being undersold here a little bit. He's a done a good job of scoring with the opportunities he's been given. As a scoring second line centre, he'd be a decent option on a few teams.

I've more or less said my piece on it but I think this right here is very much a point of contention. 5 on 5 he ranks 274th among players who've played 500 minutes in points per 60.

49 pts in a season is very good for 4.5 mil a years. Anyone player with same amount of points is getting similar contract. I was in the top 10 in Faceoff percent. I don't blame him for all the defensive problems. He did play with Kessel the Anti-defensive black hole the whole season.

 

[bustaheims]

I don't blame him for all the defensive problems. He did play with Kessel the Anti-defensive black hole the whole season.

Bozak plays the more important and influential defensive position and does a worse job. No one floated his way back into the defensive zone as frequently or as egregiously as Bozak did this season. He is absolutely to blame for a good portion of the 1st line's defensive issues.

 

[Bullfrog]

I think Bozak's being undersold here a little bit. He's a done a good job of scoring with the opportunities he's been given. As a scoring second line centre, he'd be a decent option on a few teams.

I've more or less said my piece on it but I think this right here is very much a point of contention. 5 on 5 he ranks 274th among players who've played 500 minutes in points per 60.

I've done a very poor job of saying what I was thinking. I know he's been mediocre in general given his pay grade, but he's got 12 power-play goals and is 55th in the league in power-play points and sports an overall 0.60 ppg (tied for 124th in the league.) Those are decent numbers.

They're decent because he's been able to capitalize on his opportunities, which he's been given in abundance. He has some offensive talent.

He's just filler at this point though.

 

[Kin]

I've done a very poor job of saying what I was thinking. I know he's been mediocre in general given his pay grade, but he's got 12 power-play goals and is 55th in the league in power-play points and sports an overall 0.60 ppg (tied for 124th in the league.) Those are decent numbers.

They're decent because he's been able to capitalize on his opportunities, which he's been given in abundance. He has some offensive talent.

No, I think I got what you were getting at. What i was trying to say was that the contentious thing is how well he's done relative to the opportunities he's had. I don't love points per 60 as the be all and end all but I do think it's useful to separate a player like Bozak's totals from the context of being firmly implanted as the team's #1 centre both at even strength and on the power play. And on the power play, among players who had 100 PP minutes or more, Kessel ranks 152nd in points per 60.

So I agree that in a superficial sense his totals are ok but it's really hard to imagine a team won't look at them in the context of where and how he's been used.

 

[bustaheims]

For starters, Bozak isn't really a penalty killer. He's averaging about 30 seconds of SH time a night on a not very good PK unit. He's got very little value as a defensive player.

Bozak's role on the PK this season was to take the face-off and then get off the ice as quickly as possible. He started seeing a little more ice time there after Santorelli and Winnik were dealt, but, before that, he was averaging something like 12 seconds of PK ice time per face-off.