Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take

[Frank E]

That idiot WIGWAL might know a guy who has a link to the Marlies game should anyone want a PM.

:-*

 

[mr grieves]

And the Leafs certainly have more solid core pieces than Buffalo.

Sure because that's not a ill-defined term that would be open to debate.

"solid"?

I dunno.

I bet you could settle on a reasonable definition of the term and, with an agreed upon definition, look at different rosters and see where we stack up.

 

[Kin]

I bet you could settle on a reasonable definition of the term and, with an agreed upon definition, look at different rosters and see where we stack up.

Really? You think after I looked at Buffalo's roster and came to the conclusion they're not much less talented than the Leafs and you did the same and thought we're certainly much better off than they are we could sit down and come up with a definition by which either of us decides we were wrong?

I admire your optimism.

 

[Frank E]

If we're going to blame people for screwing up the draft position, then I have to think that Matthews, Marner, and Nylander...also Kadri and Bozak, and Connor Brown, probably late season Polak, Gardiner for sure, that Boyle trade, and calling up Kapanen really screwed it too.

Just to step in a second here, and this is also sort of my response to Grieves trying to figure out what the goal differential would be after any change, but I don't think you can separate the results guys like Marner, Nylander and Matthews got without also looking at the conditions they did it in. Keeping Bozak and JVR allowed effectively allowed for the three line structure of the team which I think most of us agreed was really important for the team's offensive output as opponents couldn't key in on one or two offensive lines.

Remove that, make it so that they have a more traditional checking line and two scoring lines and while I think all of our super-rookies still have good years I don't think they're all setting records.

Well, according to your prediction at the start of the year that included those players that you feel may have put them over the top, you had them pegged at 77 points, and most of us were in and around 80ish...so I'm not sure "most of us" believed that this would be the case at all.

My point is that you're a lousy prognosticator.

 

[Redleaf]

If we're going to blame people for screwing up the draft position, then I have to think that Matthews, Marner, and Nylander...also Kadri and Bozak, and Connor Brown, probably late season Polak, Gardiner for sure, that Boyle trade, and calling up Kapanen really screwed it too.

Just to step in a second here, and this is also sort of my response to Grieves trying to figure out what the goal differential would be after any change, but I don't think you can separate the results guys like Marner, Nylander and Matthews got without also looking at the conditions they did it in. Keeping Bozak and JVR allowed effectively allowed for the three line structure of the team which I think most of us agreed was really important for the team's offensive output as opponents couldn't key in on one or two offensive lines.

Remove that, make it so that they have a more traditional checking line and two scoring lines and while I think all of our super-rookies still have good years I don't think they're all setting records.

Well, according to your prediction at the start of the year that included those players that you feel may have put them over the top, you had them pegged at 77 points, and most of us were in and around 80ish...so I'm not sure "most of us" believed that this would be the case at all.

My point is that you're a lousy prognosticator.

LMAO

 

[Kin]

Well, according to your prediction at the start of the year that included those players that you feel may have put them over the top, you had them pegged at 77 points, and most of us were in and around 80ish...so I'm not sure "most of us" believed that this would be the case at all.

My point is that you're a lousy prognosticator.

This is more of that bottom of the pool bitterness.

 

[Frank E]

Well, according to your prediction at the start of the year that included those players that you feel may have put them over the top, you had them pegged at 77 points, and most of us were in and around 80ish...so I'm not sure "most of us" believed that this would be the case at all.

My point is that you're a lousy prognosticator.

This is more of that bottom of the pool bitterness.

I'll have you know that according to the data released this morning, I've moved up from second last place to a three way tie for 3rd last place.

Progress.

 

[mr grieves]

I bet you could settle on a reasonable definition of the term and, with an agreed upon definition, look at different rosters and see where we stack up.

Really? You think after I looked at Buffalo's roster and came to the conclusion they're not much less talented than the Leafs and you did the same and thought we're certainly much better off than they are we could sit down and come up with a definition by which either of us decides we were wrong?

I admire your optimism.

Eh... I might give it a shot in another thread.

But, for now, I don't know what you saw when you looked at Buffalo, but here's what I see:
1. Matthews (1C) is better than Eichel, although Eichel is very, very good and could center a contender. Still Matthews is clearly better == advantage Leafs
2. O'Reilly (2C) is better than Kadri and younger == advantage Sabres
3. Marner (1W) is younger and already better than Sam Reinhart == advantage Leafs
4. I don't see that Buffalo has any answer for Nylander. Maybe Kane? He's older (25), not as good, likely won't be with the team when they're good. == advantage Leafs
5. Kyle Okposo (28) is locked up long term at a contract JvR surely would want. We don't know that JvR will be around (it's doubtful) == whatever
6. What I've seen of Ristolainen is that he's bad defensively, gets of points on the powerplay... he's a year younger than Reilly, but I'm pretty sure Risto will have a hard time catching Rielly == advantage Leafs
7. Gardiner beats Kulikov == advantage Leafs
8. Zaitsev beats Bogosian == advantage Leafs
9. Lehner had a SV% that was .002 higher than Andersen's == advantage BUF

So... I dunno. We're younger and deeper than they are at forward and much better defensively. A better team.

 

[mr grieves]

Wouldn't you have to add a #2 to the list?  JvR was a 2nd overall pick in his draft.  Don't think we have any other players that we traded for that were selected in the top 10.

No? Because then I'd have to go back through all 30 teams every season over the last 15 years to see if they had any players they traded for who were top 10 picks and include them in their totals.

Yeah, that'd be a bit much. But I'll take just two -- the outlier that's been blessed with the most high picks, and the Leafs, who I've claimed have done really well in the top 10.

2nd, 2002 = Kari Lehtonen ==> traded for former late-first rounder Ivan Vishnevskiy
8th, 2003 = Braydon Coburn ==> traded for Alexei Zhitnik (mid-30s at time of trade)
10th, 2004 = Boris Valabik ==> traded for former 5th OA Blake Wheeler
3rd, 2008 = Zach Bogosian ==> traded Myers (former mid-1st rounder)
4th, 2009 = Evander Kane ==> traded for Stafford (former mid-1st round)
8th, 2010 = Burmistrov ==> bust, put on waivers
7th, 2011 = Scheifele
9th, 2012 = Trouba
9th, 2014 = Ehlers
2nd, 2016 = Laine

So? they?ve kept four of their 10 high first rounders and converted one into another similarly pedigreed player.

The Leafs:
5th, 2008 = Luke Schenn ==> traded for former 2nd OA JvR
7th, 2009 = Kadri
2nd, 2010 ==> never had it (Seguin)
9th, 2011 ==> never had it  (Hamilton)
5th, 2012 = Rielly
8th, 2014 = Nylander
4th, 2015 = Marner
1st, 2016 = Matthews

We?ve got 6 high first rounders on the roster, one more than the outlying Thrashers/Jets. Why? Held onto players (Kadri) or got equivalent/better talent back (JvR), got lucky in avoiding busts, etc. So, I'd guess that the Leafs have as many high picks who are in/approaching their peaks as just about anyone (Edmonton strikes me as one with more... but can't think of many others. Arizona?).

 

[crazyperfectdevil]

I think bernier proved this year what we already kind of knew already.  Mostly that he's fine if he's not the number 1 guy in your organization.  But if you need the guy to play a lot of minutes and be the go to guy he seems to stumble.  I don't believe this year has proved otherwise. 

Also as 'easy' as it is to go out and get someone of Freddie's calibre the leafs have done a fairly awful job of it for the last decade and some other teams in need of a steady hand have similarly failed to find these dime a dozen guys.  so I don't know.  I'll wait to see if he can continue to perform at this level or better next season but I feel like going out and getting Freddie was a good thing. 

I don't know how much making the playoffs effects the players but I have seen past leaf teams seem to have more trouble as the games became more important.  Whether that's due to nerves or the other teams just preparing better as the standings become more important.  I don't know.  I find it hard to believe however that overcoming that period of frayed nerves and tighter competition would be in any way bad for a team. 

I don't know how good this team is  I guess none of us do.  If you're in the camp that feels that this year was a confluence of good things coming together for the leafs at the right time and that next year they could be a bubble team again or maybe even regress a little then you'd look at this as a bit of a waste in regards prospects and such.  If you're in the camp that this team might be really really good all ready and this year was them learning how to play with pretty much an upward trajectory from the start of the season to the end then I guess you see this as opening up the possibility of being able to compete for a cup before you really have to pay this core some money. 

I want to believe it's the latter.  Time will tell.

 

[slapshot]

So now that the season is over and we've all enjoyed the unexpected playoff run and night-in, night-out competitiveness of this young team there's something I want to say. Something I've been sitting on for a while that I didn't want to be a point of contention while we were all having so much fun. Here goes:

I still don't like the Andersen trade.

I know, it seems crazy. Andersen is going to win the MotM standings and had what I would definitely agree was a good, even very good, year. Some people will probably say that his very good year was crucial to this team making the playoffs(I sort of agree) and that making the playoffs is going to be huge for this team's development(I mainly disagree).

But let's consider a few things:

1. Andersen was good, he wasn't great. Among goalies who played 50 games, he finished 10th in save percentage. Among the same group he was 13th in SV% at even strength. He deserves a ton of credit for durability and showed occasional brilliance but he also showed some real areas of weakness(those shootout points will really matter one day) and struggled with consistency(he basically had 3 great months and 3 bad ones)

2. I think we're overvaluing his individual contribution because of the swing from going from getting bad goaltending in one year to getting good goaltending the next. That's a huge shift and will drastically impact a team's fortunes but it doesn't make good great. I don't think Andersen's performance made Matthews or Marner or Nylander exciting players. I don't think it made Kadri have a better season. I think a lot of what we liked about this season would have happened anyway, especially because...

3. You know who else had a good but not great season? Jonathan Bernier. Bernier was better than he showed last year. Perfectly capable of, with a better team in front of him, delivering the kind of goaltending we saw him give the Ducks this year. Bernier's save percentage was .003 behind Bernier for the year but actually a point ahead at even strength. He's a good goalie and he has been for most of his career. The three point difference between Bernier and Andersen this year is identical to the difference between the two of them for their careers.

And after all of the fun of the playoff chase and the playoffs, now we're left with the genuinely difficult question. How do we take what was, to be perfectly blunt, an at times overwhelmed looking defence and turn them into a championship unit. We're already discussing how the free agent market looks bad. The trade market might be worse. The Leafs are probably going to be picking 18th. There really aren't any great avenues.

So while I had a lot of fun this year and Andersen's relative ability was a part of that, I'm still leaning on the side of the Leafs being better off keeping their picks(Sam Steel!) and seeing what Bernier could have given them. While we can debate the value of the experience making the playoffs might or might not give the players, I can say with some confidence that I didn't see anything from Andersen this year that made me think that his availability was something that needed urgent seeing to. I think goalies capable of playing roughly at that level do get moved with some degree of frequency these days.

Making that move once the team had some clearer picture of how to put together their defense still seems like the better decision to me.

I think it's a little early to be judging the Anderson deal. I think his overall stats are a bit skewed by his slow start, and yes he did have a bit of slump mid-way through the season. However, he was very solid down the stretch and in the playoffs when the pressure was really on. Bernier was also playing behind one of the deepest defensive squads in the entire league.

There are many things I like about Anderson. He's pretty calm and structured in the net. He's got a pretty nice glove for the most part. He handles the puck really well. Also many of the saves he made in the playoffs were very high quality chances, dead in the slot type of saves.
This was also his first year adjusting to a new team and adjusting to a heavier workload.  He's also a lot bigger in the net than Bernier.

I think we'll have a better feel on the deal after next year now that he had time to adjust and the Leafs will likely improve their defense further on the back-end over the off-season, and all those rookies will have a year under their belt playing to the Babcock structure. But obviously making your assessment you only had this year so far to go on.

I think, given the reasons explained above, Anderson could have an exceptional year next year, if he doesn't get injured of course.

Just my thoughts.

 

[Kin]

But, for now, I don't know what you saw when you looked at Buffalo, but here's what I see:

I think at a quick glance the answer to the difference between how we approached this question is that I'm not comfortable with saying "Player X had a better season than Player Y in 2016-2017 therefore we can say he's much more talented and definitively better".

 

[Kin]

So, I'd guess that the Leafs have as many high picks who are in/approaching their peaks as just about anyone (Edmonton strikes me as one with more... but can't think of many others. Arizona?).

Ok, but the issue was just whether or not they'd had some sort of unusually high number of top 10 picks. They haven't.

 

[mr grieves]

So, I'd guess that the Leafs have as many high picks who are in/approaching their peaks as just about anyone (Edmonton strikes me as one with more... but can't think of many others. Arizona?).

Ok, but the issue was just whether or not they'd had some sort of unusually high number of top 10 picks. They haven't.

No, the issue was whether the Leafs might already have too much high end talent on the roster to drop down to a top-5 pick. Framing it in terms of overall number of picks in the top ten probably wasn't as relevant as how many top-6/top-4 players they've got out of the top. They've had no real busts, Russians leaving the league, or even serious under-performers, and they've not bailed on anyone looking for quick fixes or to change the culture.

 

[Kin]

No, the issue was whether the Leafs might already have too much high end talent on the roster to drop down to a top-5 pick. Framing it in terms of overall number of picks in the top ten probably wasn't as relevant as how many top-6/top-4 players they've got out of the top. They've had no real busts, Russians leaving the league, or even serious under-performers, and they've not bailed on anyone looking for quick fixes or to change the culture.

Well, no, you're confusing the two branches we've gone down. The first was you saying the Leafs have had an especially high number of top 10 picks in recent years. They haven't. Again, 6 of the 150 top 10 picks and 1 of the 45 top 3 picks. That's a wholly separate issue from the talent level on the team as nobody would say Dallas is less talented because Jamie Benn isn't a top 10 pick.

The second branch was Buffalo vs. Toronto and the respective talent levels(this is the "Toronto is just too talented to be a bottom 5 team") but in addition to where we might disagree on the talent of various players based on a season or two I think you're missing the obvious here. When you are adding up the "talent" on the roster compared to Buffalo you're including guys like JVR and Andersen when, really, in light of the whole premise of this discussion you should see why that's such a circular argument. Again, I have conceded that JVR and Andersen being around this year made a top 5 pick less likely that's why I don't think they should have been here.

The Leafs not being in the running for a bottom 5 pick this year is a result of the decisions they made to bring on guys like Andersen and not deal someone like JVR. When you compare the talent level of Buffalo or Dallas to the guys on the Leafs who absolutely had to be here this year(the three super rookies, Rielly and so on) that's where your case falls apart.

 

[mr grieves]

No, the issue was whether the Leafs might already have too much high end talent on the roster to drop down to a top-5 pick. Framing it in terms of overall number of picks in the top ten probably wasn't as relevant as how many top-6/top-4 players they've got out of the top. They've had no real busts, Russians leaving the league, or even serious under-performers, and they've not bailed on anyone looking for quick fixes or to change the culture.

Well, no, you're confusing the two branches we've gone down. The first was you saying the Leafs have had an especially high number of top 10 picks in recent years. They haven't. Again, 6 of the 150 top 10 picks and 1 of the 45 top 3 picks. That's a wholly separate issue from the talent level on the team as nobody would say Dallas is less talented because Jamie Benn isn't a top 10 pick.

Right. I'd look at Dallas's line-up beyond Seguin and Benn and say that.

The Leafs have more regulars in their top-6/ top-4 than other teams that've drafted as many players in the top ten.

The second branch was Buffalo vs. Toronto and the respective talent levels(this is the "Toronto is just too talented to be a bottom 5 team") but in addition to where we might disagree on the talent of various players based on a season or two I think you're missing the obvious here.

We have enough NHL seasons of Bogosian and Kulikov to say Buffalo's defense is absolutely worse than Toronto's.

When you are adding up the "talent" on the roster compared to Buffalo you're including guys like JVR and Andersen when, really, in light of the whole premise of this discussion you should see why that's such a circular argument. Again, I have conceded that JVR and Andersen being around this year made a top 5 pick less likely that's why I don't think they should have been here.

I said above, as did Frank, that the reason the Leafs were successful this year was their youth. JvR and Andersen aren't the difference between this team and a bottom five finish. Not when you're also adding Marner, Matthews, Nylander; not when they played relatively well last year but had a terrible shooting percentage that was bound to bounce back.

The Leafs not being in the running for a bottom 5 pick this year is a result of the decisions they made to bring on guys like Andersen and not deal someone like JVR.

So, we disagree. Choices like not dealing JvR and bringing in Andersen are why they're in the playoffs, not why they aren't in the basement. I don't think Andersen was markedly better than other options, and I don't think JvR really insulated the youth so effectively that they wouldn't've had great seasons without him.

 

[Kin]

Right. I'd look at Dallas's line-up beyond Seguin and Benn and say that.

Absolutely. Ignore all of the Stars' talent and they really don't have very much talent.

 

[sickbeast]

Wow this is the most annoying thread I have seen in at least six months.  :

 

[Guilt Trip]

Wow this is the most annoying thread I have seen in at least six months.  :

Agreed.