Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take

[Guilt Trip]

You don't want to subject the kids to a losing environment and you don't want them punished every time they make a mistake. Having Bernie as the number one was just that. He was brutal last year. That's why we needed a goalie Andersen and when one of his caliber comes up, you grab him. Subjecting all of these kids to losing isn't an option. Without Freddie, we don't make the playoffs and this series would have been done quick. Great move when they did it and now looks even better

 

[Kin]

My guess is that the team wanted a safety net that the young defense could grow under without fear of every. single. mistake. ending up in the back of their net, like it seemed to with Bernier and the first two weeks of Andersen. Hence the jettisoning of Enroth too.

I think you're letting narrative drive fact here. I didn't like the way Bernier played last year but I also didn't like the way Kadri played. Rebounding to some semblance of their career averages in save and shooting percentage was, I think, a pretty safe bet regardless of the intangibles you want to ascribe to their seasons.

Bernier didn't let in a goal with every single mistake. He'd played well with similarly crappy defenses in the past. You know I love you deeply Herman but this seems like a textbook case of a "Just the facts, Ma'am" sort of person throwing them out the second they contradict the story he wants to believe in.

 

[herman]

a) *swoon
b) I did say it was my guess at their motive, based on their comments and moves, not necessarily that it was something I agreed with. This is also not to say that I can't be swayed by a great story though!

My preference would've been to run the string out on Bernier to see if his percentages did bounce back, then we trade him at the deadline for the additional benefit of a higher draft pick, more picks, and more information about our goaltender pipeline. Gear up for a heavy playoff drive next year with the freed up cap space.

 

[mr grieves]

Bernier didn't let in a goal with every single mistake. He'd played well with similarly crappy defenses in the past. You know I love you deeply Herman but this seems like a textbook case of a "Just the facts, Ma'am" sort of person throwing them out the second they contradict the story he wants to believe in.

I think you're letting narrative drive fact here. I didn't like the way Bernier played last year but I also didn't like the way Kadri played. Rebounding to some semblance of their career averages in save and shooting percentage was, I think, a pretty safe bet regardless of the intangibles you want to ascribe to their seasons.

I think it's likely Bernier would've bounced back too, but I think we've got a pretty decent sense of Babcock's weird roster preferences. He like's his goalies 6'6" every game or whatever.

From an asset management perspective, I'd have much preferred to do what herman suggests above. But if we agree that Bernier likely would've bounced back this season, we can rule this out:

They probably needed another solid bottom 5 finish this past year to draft a final piece of [or?] 2 of the core.  I doubt they find that guy at 18th, and he doesn't seem to be anywhere in the system right now. 

Happily, I think the last quarter of the season and the playoffs suggest that our defense is, at least at the top of the depth chart, in better shape than we'd thought.

The core's in very good shape, and a lot of what's missing will come through internal improvements (Nylander taking over at center giving us 3 play-controlling lines, Marner developing such that he doesn't disappear in the playoffs, etc.). What makes the Andersen move frustrating is that we'll have less cost-controlled depth to move in as we move out non-core players.

 

[gunnar36]

Comparing save percentages is such a subjective thing since it doesn't account for the quality of the scoring chances.  Let's face it, we don't have an air tight d-core and they consistently give up a high number of quality chances, I would safely guess far more then the Ducks do.

 

[Kin]

Comparing save percentages is such a subjective thing since it doesn't account for the quality of the scoring chances.  Let's face it, we don't have an air tight d-core and they consistently give up a high number of quality chances, I would safely guess far more then the Ducks do.

SV% is the best mainstream goaltender stat there is. That it has some outside factors and isn't perfect doesn't render it "subjective" any more than the same being true about goals and assists. It's not a coincidence that the Vezina finalists finished 1st, 2nd and 4th in the league in SV%.

But even then, that's not the entirety of what I'm saying. I watched Andersen pretty closely all year and while I can't say the same re: Bernier, I also watched him over three seasons with the Leafs and read what people said about his play in Anaheim.

Is Andersen better and did he have the better season? Probably. But it's not a night and day difference.

 

[Andy007]

Good (and maybe on the cusp of very good) but definitely not great is exactly how I'd classify Andersen.

Though I must admit, the huge amount of praise lavished upon him by the announcers/media for average-good saves is quite impressive.

 

[bustaheims]

They probably needed another solid bottom 5 finish this past year to draft a final piece of 2 of the core.  I doubt they find that guy at 18th, and he doesn't seem to be anywhere in the system right now.

I wonder if, maybe, they took a look at the draft class this year and determined the guy they need just wasn't there, and that they didn't want two more seasons at the bottom of the league, and being in a situation where they have to wait until after the 17/18 season to start plugging other holes in the lineup. As the year went on, it started to become more clear that the kind of defenceman they need to step into the lineup in the next couple seasons wasn't likely to be available in this draft class - or, at least, there's no obvious choice for that.

 

[Zee]

Comparing save percentages is such a subjective thing since it doesn't account for the quality of the scoring chances.  Let's face it, we don't have an air tight d-core and they consistently give up a high number of quality chances, I would safely guess far more then the Ducks do.

SV% is the best mainstream goaltender stat there is. That it has some outside factors and isn't perfect doesn't render it "subjective" any more than the same being true about goals and assists. It's not a coincidence that the Vezina finalists finished 1st, 2nd and 4th in the league in SV%.

But even then, that's not the entirety of what I'm saying. I watched Andersen pretty closely all year and while I can't say the same re: Bernier, I also watched him over three seasons with the Leafs and read what people said about his play in Anaheim.

Is Andersen better and did he have the better season? Probably. But it's not a night and day difference.

You can't compare Andersen on the Leafs this season against Bernier on the Ducks this season.  In Bernier's 39 games played, he faced an average of 25 shots/game whereas in the 66 games that Andersen played he faced 31 shots/game.  That extra 6 shots a game over an additional 27 games that Andersen played over Bernier adds up on the wear and tear of a goalie.  Could Bernier have survived that type of workload?  We'll never know.  Last season, when Bernier faced 29 shots/game while playing on the Leafs, he posted a .908 save%.  We can look at goalie stats until we're blue in the face, but perhaps Bernier is one of those guys that can't last 60+ games in a season while facing 30+ shots a night.  Maybe it's a combination of workload + expectation and it's a mental thing with Bernier?  Maybe he's not cut out to be a #1 goalie because of what's between his ears?  It's all speculation on our part, but based on the numbers, I think Andersen has proven he can handle a harder workload than Bernier can.

 

[Kin]

Comparing save percentages is such a subjective thing since it doesn't account for the quality of the scoring chances.  Let's face it, we don't have an air tight d-core and they consistently give up a high number of quality chances, I would safely guess far more then the Ducks do.

SV% is the best mainstream goaltender stat there is. That it has some outside factors and isn't perfect doesn't render it "subjective" any more than the same being true about goals and assists. It's not a coincidence that the Vezina finalists finished 1st, 2nd and 4th in the league in SV%.

But even then, that's not the entirety of what I'm saying. I watched Andersen pretty closely all year and while I can't say the same re: Bernier, I also watched him over three seasons with the Leafs and read what people said about his play in Anaheim.

Is Andersen better and did he have the better season? Probably. But it's not a night and day difference.

You can't compare Andersen on the Leafs this season against Bernier on the Ducks this season. *clip*

Honestly, man, it's like you're not even reading what you're responding to. Take another look at my second paragraph.

 

[Zee]

Comparing save percentages is such a subjective thing since it doesn't account for the quality of the scoring chances.  Let's face it, we don't have an air tight d-core and they consistently give up a high number of quality chances, I would safely guess far more then the Ducks do.

SV% is the best mainstream goaltender stat there is. That it has some outside factors and isn't perfect doesn't render it "subjective" any more than the same being true about goals and assists. It's not a coincidence that the Vezina finalists finished 1st, 2nd and 4th in the league in SV%.

But even then, that's not the entirety of what I'm saying. I watched Andersen pretty closely all year and while I can't say the same re: Bernier, I also watched him over three seasons with the Leafs and read what people said about his play in Anaheim.

Is Andersen better and did he have the better season? Probably. But it's not a night and day difference.

You can't compare Andersen on the Leafs this season against Bernier on the Ducks this season. *clip*

Honestly, man, it's like you're not even reading what you're responding to. Take another look at my second paragraph.

I'm responding to the general narrative that the Andersen trade wasn't needed by the Leafs.  In your original post you pointed out that Bernier was capable of providing good goaltending with a better team in front of him and you pointed out he had a good season this year.  What I'm saying is there's a difference between a guy that can take the reigns and become a #1 goalie and can't who can't.  I think Andersen has done enough this season in transitioning from a backup / "1a" in Anaheim to a true #1 in Toronto. Sure he had his struggles too, but he performed well for long stretches, and performed well in the playoffs.  It remains to be seen if he can become an upper-echelon #1 goalie, but right now he's trending in the right direction.

Bernier on the other hand also had a good season, but the expectations on him weren't the same as what Andersen had in Toronto.  Bernier knew he'd be sitting more often than playing, and in the games he played he'd often get weaker opponents on the schedule, your Arizona's and NJ's of the world.  I realize that Bernier had a stretch where he had to play a bunch of consecutive game when Gibson was unavailable, but it was for a short stint, and he wasn't expected to become the #1 goalie for the team.

So all in all I think the Andersen trade was worth it.  I think the Leafs have a goalie that can handle the pressure of playing as a #1, and also his body can handle the workload that comes with being a #1 goalie.  I don't believe that previous Leafs goalies like Bernier or Reimer had this ability, and the fact that both are now backups in the league undesrcores that. 

You can argue that a short playoff run wasn't beneficial to the Leafs development, but I think winning is always better than losing, and the fact that the team got a small taste of it this year will benefit them going forward in my opinion.

 

[Kin]

I'm responding to the general narrative that the Andersen trade wasn't needed by the Leafs.  In your original post you pointed out that Bernier was capable of providing good goaltending with a better team in front of him and you pointed out he had a good season this year.... 

No. You are misunderstanding me despite the fact that I've explicitly and repeatedly said that my point about Bernier is not limited to his play this year but rather that Bernier's play this year is indicative of the fact that he's a significantly better goalie than he was last year which is evidenced not simply by his year in Anaheim but his ENTIRE CAREER excepting last year.

We saw Bernier as a #1 or, #1a if we want to be split hairs, on worse Leafs teams that gave up more shots. Both years he faced roughly 1800 shots. This year Andersen faced 2052. Again, this is not a night and day difference in durability. The idea that we can't possibly imagine how Bernier would respond to being expected to play most nights only really works if we have goldfish-like memories.

To make it as simple as I possibly can my argument  re: Bernier is that he's capable of providing good goaltending as a #1 BECAUSE I SAW HIM DO IT AS A MAPLE LEAF.

 

[Zee]

I'm responding to the general narrative that the Andersen trade wasn't needed by the Leafs.  In your original post you pointed out that Bernier was capable of providing good goaltending with a better team in front of him and you pointed out he had a good season this year.... 

No. You are misunderstanding me despite the fact that I've explicitly and repeatedly said that my point about Bernier is not limited to his play this year but rather that Bernier's play this year is indicative of the fact that he's a significantly better goalie than he was last year which is evidenced not simply by his year in Anaheim but his ENTIRE CAREER excepting last year.

We saw Bernier as a #1 or, #1a if we want to be split hairs, on worse Leafs teams that gave up more shots. Both years he faced roughly 1800 shots. This year Andersen faced 2052. Again, this is not a night and day difference in durability. The idea that we can't possibly imagine how Bernier would respond to being expected to play most nights only really works if we have goldfish-like memories.

To make it as simple as I possibly can my argument  re: Bernier is that he's capable of providing good goaltending as a #1 BECAUSE I SAW HIM DO IT AS A MAPLE LEAF.

He got worse each year with the Leafs.  First season .923, second season .912, third season .908  Again you can argue how bad the teams were, but nothing in Bernier's play the final 2 season gave any confidence that he could handle the workload. 

 

[Kin]

He got worse each year with the Leafs.  First season .923, second season .912, third season .908  Again you can argue how bad the teams were, but nothing in Bernier's play the final 2 season gave any confidence that he could handle the workload.

I don't have to argue how bad the teams are, it's plain fact. But to pretend like putting up a .912 SV% is nothing and the .918 Andersen did this year is a massive gap that renders one of them capable of playing the position and the other one mentally or physically incapable of it holds absolutely no water.

Additionally, there's no evidence or reason to believe that the save percentage declining like that is a distinguishable pattern as opposed to just random chance. Bernier is capable of playing at the levels we saw him play at, most of which were pretty good. Saying he's incapable of repeating that based on one bad year is exactly as solid as someone saying after the end of last season that Nazem Kadri was incapable of scoring 20 goals because of three years of declining goal totals.

All of which is a fairly minor point. You are perfectly free to continue to try and tell me that Bernier isn't capable of something I saw him doing for two seasons but Bernier's ability to provide competent goaltending is a pretty small part of the argument.

 

[dappleganger]

Carey Price has a career save percentage of .920. Just .002 better than Andersen and .005 better than Bernier.

Save percentage is a good indicator of goalie performance but it isn't the only factor that determines a goalie's ability.

 

[Kin]

Carey Price has a career save percentage of .920. Just .002 better than Andersen and .005 better than Bernier.

Strictly speaking I'm not sure what point you're making here. We all know that Price had an inconsistent start to his career but we should look askew at SV% because he "only" has managed to put up the 5th best career SV% of all time?

 

[Zee]

He got worse each year with the Leafs.  First season .923, second season .912, third season .908  Again you can argue how bad the teams were, but nothing in Bernier's play the final 2 season gave any confidence that he could handle the workload.

I don't have to argue how bad the teams are, it's plain fact. But to pretend like putting up a .912 SV% is nothing and the .918 Andersen did this year is a massive gap that renders one of them capable of playing the position and the other one mentally or physically incapable of it holds absolutely no water.

Additionally, there's no evidence or reason to believe that the save percentage declining like that is a distinguishable pattern as opposed to just random chance. Bernier is capable of playing at the levels we saw him play at, most of which were pretty good. Saying he's incapable of repeating that based on one bad year is exactly as solid as someone saying after the end of last season that Nazem Kadri was incapable of scoring 20 goals because of three years of declining goal totals.

All of which is a fairly minor point. You are perfectly free to continue to try and tell me that Bernier isn't capable of something I saw him doing for two seasons but Bernier's ability to provide competent goaltending is a pretty small part of the argument.

I'm not sure which two seasons you saw Bernier do it in considering that in 2 of his 3 seasons with the Leafs his save% was below the league average.

 

[dappleganger]

Carey Price has a career save percentage of .920. Just .002 better than Andersen and .005 better than Bernier.

Strictly speaking I'm not sure what point you're making here. We all know that Price had an inconsistent start to his career but we should look askew at SV% because he "only" has managed to put up the 5th best career SV% of all time?

Frederik Andersen has a better save percentage than Carey Price in the playoffs.

 

[dappleganger]

He got worse each year with the Leafs.  First season .923, second season .912, third season .908  Again you can argue how bad the teams were, but nothing in Bernier's play the final 2 season gave any confidence that he could handle the workload.

I don't have to argue how bad the teams are, it's plain fact. But to pretend like putting up a .912 SV% is nothing and the .918 Andersen did this year is a massive gap that renders one of them capable of playing the position and the other one mentally or physically incapable of it holds absolutely no water.

Additionally, there's no evidence or reason to believe that the save percentage declining like that is a distinguishable pattern as opposed to just random chance. Bernier is capable of playing at the levels we saw him play at, most of which were pretty good. Saying he's incapable of repeating that based on one bad year is exactly as solid as someone saying after the end of last season that Nazem Kadri was incapable of scoring 20 goals because of three years of declining goal totals.

All of which is a fairly minor point. You are perfectly free to continue to try and tell me that Bernier isn't capable of something I saw him doing for two seasons but Bernier's ability to provide competent goaltending is a pretty small part of the argument.

I'm not sure which two seasons you saw Bernier do it in considering that in 2 of his 3 seasons with the Leafs his save% was below the league average.

Maybe Nik needs his eyes checked.  :-\

 

[Kin]

I'm not sure which two seasons you saw Bernier do it in considering that in 2 of his 3 seasons with the Leafs his save% was below the league average.

I don't think league average divides between competency and incompetency or good and bad. Especially not with such small margins.