Nylander signs 6-year contract

[Phileas Fogg]

This contract will look like a steal within 1-2 years.

I'm one of the biggest Nylander fans on this board, but I don't think it'll ever look like a steal. I think it'll look completely appropriate, and that's ok.

Could be a steal alright...for my Nylander maybe.

In the first season at least, he's getting paid more than $8 million. That's not bad for 25ish points.

Heh, true enough, but no one should be too bothered about the structure - MLSE isn't going to declare bankruptcy any time soon.

What needs to happen is to abandon the idea (for the time being, at least), that Nylander is going to be a center, or 3rd line winger, and drive a line. Put him back with Matthews and Hyman. His skills complement the kind of game Matthews' plays, far more so than Kapanen and Johnsson - Nylander should be the winger version of Backstrom to Matthew's Ovechkin.
If it takes a month to get comfortable again, so be it. It's hard to find chemistry sometimes for linemates of elite players - they had something that worked for Matthews, and they paid 7M a year on the cap to keep it. So why deviate when it's clearly not working?

 

[L K]

This contract will look like a steal within 1-2 years.

I'm one of the biggest Nylander fans on this board, but I don't think it'll ever look like a steal. I think it'll look completely appropriate, and that's ok.

Could be a steal alright...for my Nylander maybe.

In the first season at least, he's getting paid more than $8 million. That's not bad for 25ish points.

Heh, true enough, but no one should be too bothered about the structure - MLSE isn't going to declare bankruptcy any time soon.

What needs to happen is to abandon the idea (for the time being, at least), that Nylander is going to be a center, or 3rd line winger, and drive a line. Put him back with Matthews and Hyman. His skills complement the kind of game Matthews' plays, far more so than Kapanen and Johnsson - Nylander should be the winger version of Backstrom to Matthew's Ovechkin.
If it takes a month to get comfortable again, so be it. It's hard to find chemistry sometimes for linemates of elite players - they had something that worked for Matthews, and they paid 7M a year on the cap to keep it. So why deviate when it's clearly not working?

I don't really think I came away from Nylander's stretch of playing center thinking he wouldn't be good as the 3C on this team.  The problem is Nylander needs a goal scorer on his wing and he was playing with combinations of Marleau/Brown who are not goal scorers. 
Even guys like Johnson and Kapanen, while scoring goals they really aren't set up to finish kind of scorers.  I think Nylander as the center for a guy like Ovechkin would be a good line.  The Leafs just aren't going to have the depth to do that. 

He's better playing on the wing with Matthews or Tavares.

 

[Highlander]

From Siegels article in the Athletic today about the reunification of Nylander with Matthews is that it looks like it is here to stay. Matthews was basically saying he loves having Nylander on his wing, that they feed off each other. Babs was saying Nylander was the catalyst in the comeback attempt, so I stick by steal.
Just hope they keep Johnsson on the LW clearly makes this line much more dynamic than Hyman in that spot.

 

[herman]

From the aforementioned Siegel article:

Matthews on comparing Mathew Tkachuk to William Nylander and expressing his admiration for the performance of the posterior of his partner:

[Tkachuk]?s not like Willy where he?s flying around and cutting through edges and stuff, but he?s got his ass out and he?s just protecting the puck and it?s hard to take off of him. And then it?s kind of the same thing, you?re getting in an open position and he?s finding you the puck.?

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/damospin/status/1106763232469868546
I feel... conflicted...

https://twitter.com/prospects_watch/status/1106322288310448129
That makes more sensehahahahaha

https://twitter.com/theflintor/status/1106753663240826880
Dude has chemistry with everyone

 

[disco]

That assist from behind the net with one hand fighting two guys to the front where Auston wasn't even occupying yet was one of the best assists I've ever seen.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/SteveBurtch/status/1107698875635286016

2017-18 for reference:

2016-17 for reference:

 

[dappleganger]

https://twitter.com/SteveBurtch/status/1107698875635286016

So Matthews is better without Nylander.

 

[Bender]

https://twitter.com/SteveBurtch/status/1107698875635286016

So Matthews is better without Nylander.

But isn't Nylander the cause of all the Leafs' problems?

 

[herman]

Fun thing if you're poking through hockeyviz for Toronto this season, Willy is currently rocking the highest Threat% differential 5v5 for-against. Threat% is a simplified Expected Goals model and is essentially a likelihood of scoring based on shot location. Higher % For = good offense. Higher % Against = bad defense.

I did the hard work of grabbing today's %ages from the Leafs forwards' respective 5v5 shot maps and dumping them all into a table and calculating some differentials and relative comps to the team avg. This is a grossly simplified slice and dice and not even remotely statistically rigorous, but still quite telling in a systematic sense. This is sorted by 5v5 For - 5v5 Against as the measure of who generates the most offense while giving up the least.

Player Threat%		5v5ForWith		5v5ForWithout		5v5AgainstWith		5v5AgainstWithout		5v5 For-Against		5v5For With-Without		5v5 For rel		5v5 Against rel
William Nylander		27		10		7		9		20		17		13.83		-1.42
Zach Hyman		32		7		17		6		15		25		18.83		8.58
John Tavares		30		6		15		6		15		24		16.83		6.58
Mitch Marner		25		8		14		6		11		17		11.83		5.58
Auston Matthews		24		9		16		6		8		15		10.83		7.58
Andreas Johnsson		12		13		4		10		8		-1		-1.17		-4.42
Kasperi Kapanen		19		11		13		7		6		8		5.83		4.58
Nazem Kadri		15		12		10		8		5		3		1.83		1.58
Patrick Marleau		12		13		17		5		-5		-1		-1.17		8.58
Connor Brown		-4		18		3		10		-7		-22		-17.17		-5.42
Frederik Gauthier		-22		19		-14		12		-8		-41		-35.17		-22.42
Tyler Ennis		-12		16		-1		10		-11		-28		-25.17		-9.42

 

[Highlander]

https://twitter.com/damospin/status/1106763232469868546
I feel... conflicted...

https://twitter.com/prospects_watch/status/1106322288310448129
That makes more sensehahahahaha

https://twitter.com/theflintor/status/1106753663240826880
Dude has chemistry with everyone

Thanks Damian on your back up of my Nylander Steal quote..I will pass on the 500 as planned when we meet for drinks.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/markhmasters/status/1109540738793115648

More Nylander fans joining my club

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/PPPLeafs/status/1110149372149403649

Nylander?s offensive game outside of his shooting is elite. He has the potential to be one of the very best offensive players in the world, given his transition ability and passing. Manual tracking data suggests that Nylander is among the league leaders in creating shots for both himself and teammates, as well as creating zone entries. If he was an average shooter, his 5v5 scoring over the past three years would be similar to Nicklas Backstrom?s ? another Swedish pass-first player who is the second banana to an elite goal scorer. Backstrom will probably end up in the Hall of Fame. The main thing separating he and Nylander?s 5v5 scoring over the last few years is shooting percentage.

If you?re looking for some indication that Nylander?s shooting is salvageable, the man to look at is Nathan MacKinnon. Through his first four years, MacKinnon?s shooting percentage was 8.1%, and there was discussion over why such a can?t-miss prospect was not producing the way we would expect. Over the last two, his shooting percentage is 12.4%, and suddenly, MacKinnon is a consensus top-10 forward in the world. It?s also not as if MacKinnon?s expected shooting percentage drastically shot upwards either. It?s higher in the last two years than in the previous three, but only by 0.5 percentage points. Furthermore, his expected shooting percentage is lower than Nylander?s has been across his entire career (one of the most annoying myths about Nylander is that he?s a perimeter player who takes low percentage shots). Some time in the last few years, whether by a change in his game or random variance, MacKinnon figured out how to shoot, and changed from a frustrating young player with potential to an elite offensive player. It?s not out of the realm of possibility that Nylander can do the same.

Okay, now imagine Nylander with Matthews' curl-and-drag shot.

For what it's worth, Nylander shot over 17% (all situations) in his brief couple of seasons with the Marlies.

 

[Zee]

https://twitter.com/PPPLeafs/status/1110149372149403649

Nylander?s offensive game outside of his shooting is elite. He has the potential to be one of the very best offensive players in the world, given his transition ability and passing. Manual tracking data suggests that Nylander is among the league leaders in creating shots for both himself and teammates, as well as creating zone entries. If he was an average shooter, his 5v5 scoring over the past three years would be similar to Nicklas Backstrom?s ? another Swedish pass-first player who is the second banana to an elite goal scorer. Backstrom will probably end up in the Hall of Fame. The main thing separating he and Nylander?s 5v5 scoring over the last few years is shooting percentage.

If you?re looking for some indication that Nylander?s shooting is salvageable, the man to look at is Nathan MacKinnon. Through his first four years, MacKinnon?s shooting percentage was 8.1%, and there was discussion over why such a can?t-miss prospect was not producing the way we would expect. Over the last two, his shooting percentage is 12.4%, and suddenly, MacKinnon is a consensus top-10 forward in the world. It?s also not as if MacKinnon?s expected shooting percentage drastically shot upwards either. It?s higher in the last two years than in the previous three, but only by 0.5 percentage points. Furthermore, his expected shooting percentage is lower than Nylander?s has been across his entire career (one of the most annoying myths about Nylander is that he?s a perimeter player who takes low percentage shots). Some time in the last few years, whether by a change in his game or random variance, MacKinnon figured out how to shoot, and changed from a frustrating young player with potential to an elite offensive player. It?s not out of the realm of possibility that Nylander can do the same.

Okay, now imagine Nylander with Matthews' curl-and-drag shot.

For what it's worth, Nylander shot over 17% (all situations) in his brief couple of seasons with the Marlies.

Sounds like a job for Darryl Belfry this summer.

 

[herman]

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2019/4/26/18517715/william-nylander-kyle-dubas-mike-babcock-exit-interview-toronto-maple-leafs

I'm glad Dubas cleared the air on this. I know he was trying to take the heat for a variety of things that really were other people's responsibility at the end of the season, but this one is accurately on him.

 

[cabber24]

I think Nylander will easily score 30 goals next year. I am not the least bit worried having him on our roster even at his cap hit.

 

[Zee]

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2019/4/26/18517715/william-nylander-kyle-dubas-mike-babcock-exit-interview-toronto-maple-leafs

I'm glad Dubas cleared the air on this. I know he was trying to take the heat for a variety of things that really were other people's responsibility at the end of the season, but this one is accurately on him.

Were Nylander and his agent mute during this entire process?  I think blame lies on both parties.  Had Willy come to a number earlier he would have signed earlier.

 

[herman]

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2019/4/26/18517715/william-nylander-kyle-dubas-mike-babcock-exit-interview-toronto-maple-leafs

I'm glad Dubas cleared the air on this. I know he was trying to take the heat for a variety of things that really were other people's responsibility at the end of the season, but this one is accurately on him.

Were Nylander and his agent mute during this entire process?  I think blame lies on both parties.  Had Willy come to a number earlier he would have signed earlier.

It sounds like they were being lowballed by nearly 20% the whole offseason and into November. They were looking for assurances that Nylander was considered core, and a coy 5-6M offer with an expected salary cap increase, regardless of the term, isn't quite that.

 

[Zee]

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2019/4/26/18517715/william-nylander-kyle-dubas-mike-babcock-exit-interview-toronto-maple-leafs

I'm glad Dubas cleared the air on this. I know he was trying to take the heat for a variety of things that really were other people's responsibility at the end of the season, but this one is accurately on him.

Were Nylander and his agent mute during this entire process?  I think blame lies on both parties.  Had Willy come to a number earlier he would have signed earlier.

It sounds like they were being lowballed by nearly 20% the whole offseason and into November. They were looking for assurances that Nylander was considered core, and a coy 5-6M offer with an expected salary cap increase, regardless of the term, isn't quite that.

Says who that they were offering in the $5M range?  All accounts were Leafs were in the low 6s, something like 6.2-6.5 but Nylander's camp wanted over $8M

 

[L K]

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2019/4/26/18517715/william-nylander-kyle-dubas-mike-babcock-exit-interview-toronto-maple-leafs

I'm glad Dubas cleared the air on this. I know he was trying to take the heat for a variety of things that really were other people's responsibility at the end of the season, but this one is accurately on him.

Were Nylander and his agent mute during this entire process?  I think blame lies on both parties.  Had Willy come to a number earlier he would have signed earlier.

It sounds like they were being lowballed by nearly 20% the whole offseason and into November. They were looking for assurances that Nylander was considered core, and a coy 5-6M offer with an expected salary cap increase, regardless of the term, isn't quite that.

Says who that they were offering in the $5M range?  All accounts were Leafs were in the low 6s, something like 6.2-6.5 but Nylander's camp wanted over $8M

Says who on the Nylander camp wanting 8.  There were no confirmed numbers coming out but the panels pushed that narrative all year.  It's interesting that in a negotiation where no numbers were truly leaking that the high-ball number is taken as true only.