Official Armchair GM Thread 2014-2015 Leafs

[Kin]

I get that some people want to put the focus on the players, but, shouldn't that blame also fall on the guy who who brought those players here?

You know, that brings up something I've often wondered. People like Damien Cox often say that Toronto fans are super-quick to blame a coach or GM but "never blame the players". First of all, aside from it not being true...what exactly can I blame the players for? Like Tyler Bozak is someone I often hear that about but isn't the worst thing you could legitimately say about him that he's ill-suited for what the team has asked of him? Or maybe that he didn't deserve the contract they offered to him of their own volition? He's a limited player but that's not a matter of choice or the result of decisions he's made.

So I never know what someone like Cox wants the fans to do? I mean, we all know they're not good enough but it's not because they don't want to be better or aren't trying. Even someone like Clarkson...I mean I wish he'd play better but he kind of is who he is.

 

[moon111]

I would be really curious as to what goes on in Leaf management.  As crazy as some fans seem, 75% of them seem to be smarter then management?  Guaranteed you'd get better results making management moves based on a poll at this site then JFJ, Burke, Nonis, whoever else steps in.

 

[bustaheims]

So I never know what someone like Cox wants the fans to do? I mean, we all know they're not good enough but it's not because they don't want to be better or aren't trying. Even someone like Clarkson...I mean I wish he'd play better but he kind of is who he is.

That's just it. At the end of the day, blaming the players is really basically blaming the coach and the GM any way. Assuming the players are putting in a legitimate effort, if they're still not succeeding, that means either the GM put together a bad group of players or the coach is not using the players in the most effective manner. It inevitably still falls back on them.

 

[Britishbulldog]

Trade: Phaneuf Bernier Bozak Gardiner Santorelli Winnik Holzer Clarkson

Replace with: WPG M Stuart Tor Marlie Gibson O'Reilly Percy Leivo Tor Marlie Granberg Bodie

I am not sure how the trades would happen as I am only looking to add a veteran LH dman and O'Reilly

I noticed that Kane is a healthy scratch again tonight.

Maybe Phaneuf straight up for O'Reilly

Bernier - ?? for 2nd round pick?  Not sure what he is worth
Holzer - LA/Det 3rd round pick
Bozak - Edm 2nd round pick
Winnik - Pitts for 2nd round pick
Booth - ?? 4th round pick

Santorelli, Gardiner, Clarkson (40% salary retention), Pitts 2nd pick - Kane + Stuart

JVR - O'Reilly - Kessel
Lupul - Kadri - Kane
Leivo - Holland - Panik
Komarov - Smith - Bodie

Stuart - Franson
Rielly - Polak
Percy (Loov) - Robidas

Reimer

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

Beau Bennett as a healthy scratch the last couple of games.

Wonder if Franson for Bennett and a 2nd is something they might have interest in.

Or Santorelli and Winnik for Bennett and a 2nd.

Thoughts?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Beau Bennett as a healthy scratch the last couple of games.

Wonder if Franson for Bennett and a 2nd is something they might have interest in.

Or Santorelli and Winnik for Bennett and a 2nd.

Thoughts?

Caputi, Tangradi, Bennett. The Pens are getting into a habit of having highly thought of young forwards who had a chance to play with Crosby/Malkin and still couldn't secure a regular spot in their line-up. We were fooled once with Caputi already, I'd stay clear of Bennett.

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

Beau Bennett as a healthy scratch the last couple of games.

Wonder if Franson for Bennett and a 2nd is something they might have interest in.

Or Santorelli and Winnik for Bennett and a 2nd.

Thoughts?

Caputi, Tangradi, Bennett. The Pens are getting into a habit of having highly thought of young forwards who had a chance to play with Crosby/Malkin and still couldn't secure a regular spot in their line-up. We were fooled once with Caputi already, I'd stay clear of Bennett.

Maybe, but Bennett is a 1st rounder with 29 points in 67 games whereas Caputi was a 4th rounder with 3 pts in 9 games when the Leafs acquired him.

Alternatively I'd be interested in moving Franson and Kadri for Seth Jones.

Not sure Nashville would do it but I think it would be good for both teams (NSH can afford to re-sign Franson and it gives them a legit shot at the Cup).

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Beau Bennett as a healthy scratch the last couple of games.

Wonder if Franson for Bennett and a 2nd is something they might have interest in.

Or Santorelli and Winnik for Bennett and a 2nd.

Thoughts?

Caputi, Tangradi, Bennett. The Pens are getting into a habit of having highly thought of young forwards who had a chance to play with Crosby/Malkin and still couldn't secure a regular spot in their line-up. We were fooled once with Caputi already, I'd stay clear of Bennett.

Bozak sure would look good with Sid though.

 

[Redleaf]

Beau Bennett as a healthy scratch the last couple of games.

Wonder if Franson for Bennett and a 2nd is something they might have interest in.

Or Santorelli and Winnik for Bennett and a 2nd.

Thoughts?

Caputi, Tangradi, Bennett. The Pens are getting into a habit of having highly thought of young forwards who had a chance to play with Crosby/Malkin and still couldn't secure a regular spot in their line-up. We were fooled once with Caputi already, I'd stay clear of Bennett.

Maybe, but Bennett is a 1st rounder with 29 points in 67 games whereas Caputi was a 4th rounder with 3 pts in 9 games when the Leafs acquired him.

Alternatively I'd be interested in moving Franson and Kadri for Seth Jones.

Not sure Nashville would do it but I think it would be good for both teams (NSH can afford to re-sign Franson and it gives them a legit shot at the Cup).

I suggested the exact same trade in the GDT last night. I'd even be willing to throw in Reimer to make the deal happen.

Another deal that may work would be Phaneuf (+....) to LA for Richards and their 1st. It doesn't help create much cap space for either team, but upgrades LA's D, and give the Leafs another 1st rounder.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

Beau Bennett as a healthy scratch the last couple of games.

Wonder if Franson for Bennett and a 2nd is something they might have interest in.

Or Santorelli and Winnik for Bennett and a 2nd.

Thoughts?

Caputi, Tangradi, Bennett. The Pens are getting into a habit of having highly thought of young forwards who had a chance to play with Crosby/Malkin and still couldn't secure a regular spot in their line-up. We were fooled once with Caputi already, I'd stay clear of Bennett.

Maybe, but Bennett is a 1st rounder with 29 points in 67 games whereas Caputi was a 4th rounder with 3 pts in 9 games when the Leafs acquired him.

Alternatively I'd be interested in moving Franson and Kadri for Seth Jones.

Not sure Nashville would do it but I think it would be good for both teams (NSH can afford to re-sign Franson and it gives them a legit shot at the Cup).

I suggested the exact same trade in the GDT last night. I'd even be willing to throw in Reimer to make the deal happen.

Another deal that may work would be Phaneuf (+....) to LA for Richards and their 1st. It doesn't help create much cap space for either team, but upgrades LA's D, and give the Leafs another 1st rounder.

Does anyone know how the recapture penalties work for Richards??  I'm wondering if the Leafs take him on and he retires in a couple of years, won't LA be on the hook for most of his cap hit?  If that's the case it might be worth to take him on during a rebuild to get that pick and get Phaneuf's 7 million off the books.

 

[dappleganger]

Does anyone know how the recapture penalties work for Richards??  I'm wondering if the Leafs take him on and he retires in a couple of years, won't LA be on the hook for most of his cap hit?  If that's the case it might be worth to take him on during a rebuild to get that pick and get Phaneuf's 7 million off the books.

This is from Friedman's 30 thoughts:

"Here is how to calculate the penalty:

To this point, Richards played three full seasons in Los Angeles, for a combined salary of $22.6M. This year is a little trickier; he?s been on the Kings? roster for 47 games, which is 57 per cent of an 82-game season. Richards is making $7M, so he?s already been paid $3.99M. Fifty-seven per cent of his cap hit is $3,277,500.

Add his total earnings so far in Los Angeles and you are just under $26.6M. His total cap hit during that time is slightly above $20.5M. (Numbers rounded for math simpletons like myself.) Therefore, the Kings benefited by approximately $6.1M during the time Richards played for them. This number is not relevant now, but ?banked? for later, if necessary.

Let?s say, for arguments? sake, Arizona picks him up. Richards plays three more seasons and retires in July 2018 to his apparently outstanding summer home, despite two years remaining on his contract. That $6.1M savings would be divided by the two remaining years, meaning the Kings would lose $3.05M in each of 2018-19 and 2019-20. It?s worse if he leaves with just one year to go.

Now, what about the Coyotes, in our imaginary scenario? Not bad at all. In 2016-17, Richards? salary starts creeping below his average annual value. Teams do get credit for seasons where that number exceeds cash. Including the amount leftover from this year, Arizona would pay Richards around $700,000 less than his total cap hit.

The risk here is LA?s.

Richards will only be 35 at the end of this contract, so age is not a factor. He could also go on long-term injury, collect the $6M due to him in those final two seasons and not play.

But the cap recapture issue shouldn?t scare a team wanting to take a chance."

 

[Bullfrog]

The AAV for his deal is $5.75M. His average salary for his first seven years (including this year) was around $6.71M and for his remaining five years is around $4.4M.

If he retires early, both Philly and LA are on the hook for recapture penalties of some amount.

Any team who gets him from here on out won't get any penalty assumes he plays two or more seasons. Even if he only plays one more season, the cap recapture would be tiny. Next year's salary is $6.0M, so only $250k above his cap number (AAV.)

Edit: actually Philly is on the hook for almost nothing. Something like $150k total.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

If he retires early, both Philly and LA are on the hook for recapture penalties of some amount.

From the same 30 Thoughts article posted above:

The first thing to recognize is Philadelphia, the team that originally signed Richards, is immune. Because he was traded before the existence of the new CBA, the Flyers? involvement is irrelevant (although their pain would have been minor, because the highest-paid years came after he was sent west.)

 

[Bullfrog]

Ah. I didn't realize it wasn't retroactive.

 

[Rebel_1812]

Are you suggesting Nonis has done a great job with the Leafs and things should just continue business as usual?

Seriously. The best defence Nonis has right now might that he's not as bas as JFJ was - and that's a pretty thin defence. I get that some people want to put the focus on the players, but, shouldn't that blame also fall on the guy who who brought those players here? The only players on the team who weren't either brought in by or signed to their current contracts by Nonis are Rielly, JvR, Granberg and Holzer.

          I think he is the victim of too much positivity.  He believes the way the leafs played during the good times was what they really were.  When Phil is on his hot scoring streaks he seems worth every penny of the 8 million deal.  When he is cold and not scoring he seems very overpaid.  The same could be said for a lot of the players which is why there is debate here on which players should be kept of moved. 
            Nonis will likely be fired.  But is there a better candidate out there?  I brought( or is it brang) up this point during the fire Carlyle arguments.  What coach can turn them around or get them playing better then him.  Obviously, Horacheck isn't doing better and Wilson sucked with the Leafs.  What unemployed GM will be able to turn the garbage players into gold?

 

[bustaheims]

Nonis will likely be fired.  But is there a better candidate out there?  I brought( or is it brang) up this point during the fire Carlyle arguments.  What coach can turn them around or get them playing better then him.  Obviously, Horacheck isn't doing better and Wilson sucked with the Leafs.  What unemployed GM will be able to turn the garbage players into gold?

Do you not see the obvious flaw in those question? It's not about who's better. It's never been about who's better. When someone or something isn't working out, do you stick with it just because you don't see anything better, or do you try other things to see if they might work? It's also not just about unemployed candidates. That's a very tunnel blind way of looking for replacements. There a lots of potential candidates for both the GM and coaching positions that are employed by other teams as assistants, or are doing the job for teams in other leagues. There's lots of fresh blood out there that could be great. There's no need to stick to retreads. It's also not about turning the current players into gold, it's about remaking the roster - with or without players that are currently on it. The current roster is really mostly Nonis' creation - there's only a handful of players that he didn't either bring in or sign to their current contracts. It's obviously a failure. Do you really want the architect of this disaster being the one to rebuild it?

As for Carlyle vs Horachek - the results may not be there, but Horachek definitely has them playing better hockey than Carlyle ever did.

 

[ZBBM]

Nonis will likely be fired.  But is there a better candidate out there?  I brought( or is it brang) up this point during the fire Carlyle arguments.  What coach can turn them around or get them playing better then him.  Obviously, Horacheck isn't doing better and Wilson sucked with the Leafs.  What unemployed GM will be able to turn the garbage players into gold?

Do you not see the obvious flaw in those question? It's not about who's better. It's never been about who's better. When someone or something isn't working out, do you stick with it just because you don't see anything better, or do you try other things to see if they might work? It's also not just about unemployed candidates. That's a very tunnel blind way of looking for replacements. There a lots of potential candidates for both the GM and coaching positions that are employed by other teams as assistants, or are doing the job for teams in other leagues. There's lots of fresh blood out there that could be great. There's no need to stick to retreads. It's also not about turning the current players into gold, it's about remaking the roster - with or without players that are currently on it. The current roster is really mostly Nonis' creation - there's only a handful of players that he didn't either bring in or sign to their current contracts. It's obviously a failure. Do you really want the architect of this disaster being the one to rebuild it?

As for Carlyle vs Horachek - the results may not be there, but Horachek definitely has them playing better hockey than Carlyle ever did.

I agree with you here busta ... except perhaps with respect to the Leafs.  JFJ was exactly that kind of pick, I remember there was lots of positive buzz when he was chosen about the Leafs's new thinking, etc.  And then he got eaten alive in the hothouse that is T.O.  So I am leery of going off the boards again, so to speak.

Having said that, none of the retreads excite me.

 

[bustaheims]

I agree with you here busta ... except perhaps with respect to the Leafs.  JFJ was exactly that kind of pick, I remember there was lots of positive buzz when he was chosen about the Leafs's new thinking, etc.  And then he got eaten alive in the hothouse that is T.O.  So I am leery of going off the boards again, so to speak.

Having said that, none of the retreads excite me.

While I understand why you might be hesitant, you can't let one bad experience have the big an impact. Teams that succeed find the best talent available to them, regardless of experience level. JFJ was a mistake, sure, but that doesn't mean everyone without NHL GM experience will be. The team just needs to do better due diligence with hockey people running the show rather than business people.

 

[Kin]

I agree with you here busta ... except perhaps with respect to the Leafs.  JFJ was exactly that kind of pick, I remember there was lots of positive buzz when he was chosen about the Leafs's new thinking, etc.  And then he got eaten alive in the hothouse that is T.O.  So I am leery of going off the boards again, so to speak.

Sure and then JFJ's replacement was super-experienced Fletcher and he did terribly and then they brought in the dream candidate that was Burke and he didn't do much better. What the last ten years should teach people regarding the Leafs is that so long as the GM is always under pressure to win immediately they're not going to do well regardless of who the GM is.

 

[ZBBM]

I agree with you here busta ... except perhaps with respect to the Leafs.  JFJ was exactly that kind of pick, I remember there was lots of positive buzz when he was chosen about the Leafs's new thinking, etc.  And then he got eaten alive in the hothouse that is T.O.  So I am leery of going off the boards again, so to speak.

Having said that, none of the retreads excite me.

While I understand why you might be hesitant, you can't let one bad experience have the big an impact. Teams that succeed find the best talent available to them, regardless of experience level. JFJ was a mistake, sure, but that doesn't mean everyone without NHL GM experience will be. The team just needs to do better due diligence with hockey people running the show rather than business people.

I mean, if we could get a Nill that would be fine but to me it should be someone like that.  Of course Nonis fit that description, so I guess what Nik said in his post is the real factor.