Official Armchair GM Thread 2014-2015 Leafs

[ZBBM]

I agree with you here busta ... except perhaps with respect to the Leafs.  JFJ was exactly that kind of pick, I remember there was lots of positive buzz when he was chosen about the Leafs's new thinking, etc.  And then he got eaten alive in the hothouse that is T.O.  So I am leery of going off the boards again, so to speak.

Sure and then JFJ's replacement was super-experienced Fletcher and he did terribly and then they brought in the dream candidate that was Burke and he didn't do much better. What the last ten years should teach people regarding the Leafs is that so long as the GM is always under pressure to win immediately they're not going to do well regardless of who the GM is.

I think your basic point has a lot of merit but I would just point out that BB was under no external pressure ? he could have gone full monty rebuild and everyone would have been on board.  The problem with Burke is that he self-pressurized and then let his ego out-flate.  And then there was a very loud kerboom and the franchise sank to the bottom of the sea.

 

[Kin]

I think your basic point has a lot of merit but I would just point out that BB was under no external pressure ? he could have gone full monty rebuild and everyone would have been on board.  The problem with Burke is that he self-pressurized and then let his ego out-flate.  And then there was a very loud kerboom and the franchise sank to the bottom of the sea.

For what it's worth, I don't think that's true. I think one of the reasons he was brought on was because he told the board that he could build a winner without engaging in a rebuild. I think if he'd told the board that he wanted to blow up the team they'd have ignored him like they did Scotty Bowman.

 

[ZBBM]

I think your basic point has a lot of merit but I would just point out that BB was under no external pressure ? he could have gone full monty rebuild and everyone would have been on board.  The problem with Burke is that he self-pressurized and then let his ego out-flate.  And then there was a very loud kerboom and the franchise sank to the bottom of the sea.

For what it's worth, I don't think that's true. I think one of the reasons he was brought on was because he told the board that he could build a winner without engaging in a rebuild. I think if he'd told the board that he wanted to blow up the team they'd have ignored him like they did Scotty Bowman.

I have to admit that your take aligns with my belief that Burke was a gigantic, Nigerian-419-scambaiteer-level fraudster.

 

[KadriFan]

Anyone think there is a blockbuster deal in the works?  Like maybe
Kessel and Franson to Nashville for Jones and Kevin Fiala?  Might have to take some salary as well.... Just wondering

 

[Boston Leaf]

I dont see a blockbuster happening.. Dont think they have guts for something like that... I can see winnik somewhere for a 3rd round pick

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

I think Santorelli is a bell-weather of what the board/Shanny/Nonis are thinking.

If they see themselves "retooling" within 3 years, then he'll be re-signed. If it's a full re-build, he'l be moved.

That said I wonder if there isn't more value in signing him for the reported 3 years @ $3M and then moving him next trade deadline. It's still a cap friendly deal and teams may move extra assets for the extra 2 years of contract.

 

[Redleaf]

I dont see a blockbuster happening.. Dont think they have guts for something like that... I can see winnik somewhere for a 3rd round pick

Get trader Cliff on the case. We need a deal like he orchestrated in the 90s when they made the blockbuster trade to bring in Gilmour. We all trust Cliff still, right?

 

[bustaheims]

That said I wonder if there isn't more value in signing him for the reported 3 years @ $3M and then moving him next trade deadline. It's still a cap friendly deal and teams may move extra assets for the extra 2 years of contract.

I'm not sure there's enough extra value there to counter the reduced market for him in that scenario. Right now, he's easy for teams to fit into their cap structure. With extra seasons on his contract, even at a very affordable $3M per, there will be teams that can't/won't make it work. Also, this year's draft is supposed to be a very good and very deep one, so, a pick in this year's draft is probably more valuable than the equivalent pick in next year's.

 

[Redleaf]

That said I wonder if there isn't more value in signing him for the reported 3 years @ $3M and then moving him next trade deadline. It's still a cap friendly deal and teams may move extra assets for the extra 2 years of contract.

I'm not sure there's enough extra value there to counter the reduced market for him in that scenario. Right now, he's easy for teams to fit into their cap structure. With extra seasons on his contract, even at a very affordable $3M per, there will be teams that can't/won't make it work. Also, this year's draft is supposed to be a very good and very deep one, so, a pick in this year's draft is probably more valuable than the equivalent pick in next year's.

Beyond the first 3 or 4 picks, what makes people think this draft is so deep?

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

That said I wonder if there isn't more value in signing him for the reported 3 years @ $3M and then moving him next trade deadline. It's still a cap friendly deal and teams may move extra assets for the extra 2 years of contract.

I'm not sure there's enough extra value there to counter the reduced market for him in that scenario. Right now, he's easy for teams to fit into their cap structure. With extra seasons on his contract, even at a very affordable $3M per, there will be teams that can't/won't make it work. Also, this year's draft is supposed to be a very good and very deep one, so, a pick in this year's draft is probably more valuable than the equivalent pick in next year's.

Beyond the first 3 or 4 picks, what makes people think this draft is so deep?

?It certainly would be the year,? said Dennis McInnis, director of scouting at International Scouting Services. ?Honestly, all of those three guys ? [McDavid, Eichel and Hanifin] ? are on the same level. Except one is a defenceman.

?This year?s draft is very deep. You?re getting quality players in the top-50.?

http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/10/21/top-prospects-connor-mcdavid-jack-eichel-making-this-a-good-year-to-be-bad-for-nhl-teams/

Potentially franchise-changing names lie at the top with Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel and Noah Hanifin, but it?s also shaping up to be a deep draft.

http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/ryan-kennedys-top-10-2015-nhl-draft-prospects/

With deep draft, 'it's a good year to be bad' in NHL

The 2015 NHL draft crop is so impressive that success and failure will both have their rewards when this season is over.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nhl/draft/2015/02/04/nhl-draft-top-prospects-hanifin-strome-mcdavid-eichel/22894141/

 

[Redleaf]

Thanks for sharing Potvin. There's certainly a lot of hype going into this draft.

I'm still not convinced the Leafs can find an impactful player outside of the top five. Not because there isn't one, but because it the Leafs. ???

They really need to find a way to get into the top 3, in order to draft one of the 'can't miss' prospects, or they'll probably bungle up their pick, Bigg(s) time.

 

[Bullfrog]

What makes you think they'll make a bad pick if it's outside of the top 3? They've had some hits and some misses.

Nylander and Rielly are certainly good choices. Gauthier is a bit unknown.

 

[Redleaf]

What makes you think they'll make a bad pick if it's outside of the top 3? They've had some hits and some misses.

Nylander and Rielly are certainly good choices. Gauthier is a bit unknown.

Just a hunch. I'm not sure this organization can do anything right. Although I do hold a faint glimmer of hope that Shanahan has a plan to bottom out this year. Lets see how that works out...

 

[Deebo]

Thanks for sharing Potvin. There's certainly a lot of hype going into this draft.

I'm still not convinced the Leafs can find an impactful player outside of the top five. Not because there isn't one, but because it the Leafs. ???

They really need to find a way to get into the top 3, in order to draft one of the 'can't miss' prospects, or they'll probably bungle up their pick, Bigg(s) time.

But in another thread you said you think if we end up with McDavid he'll probably turn out to be a disappointment. Does this apply to Eichel and Hanifin too? Or is it only the best of player in the top 3 that you feel will disappoint if they came to Toronto.

So they won't be able to find a good player outside of the top 5 because they are the leafs and they suck at everything and you think the top 3 pick will fail to live up to the hype because of the Toronto market.

We are pretty much doomed, unless we get pick 4 or 5?

 

[freer]

What makes you think they'll make a bad pick if it's outside of the top 3? They've had some hits and some misses.

Nylander and Rielly are certainly good choices. Gauthier is a bit unknown.

I don't understand why Gauthier is being judge. At WJC he was a very good shutdown defensive center.

 

[Redleaf]

Thanks for sharing Potvin. There's certainly a lot of hype going into this draft.

I'm still not convinced the Leafs can find an impactful player outside of the top five. Not because there isn't one, but because it the Leafs. ???

They really need to find a way to get into the top 3, in order to draft one of the 'can't miss' prospects, or they'll probably bungle up their pick, Bigg(s) time.

But in another thread you said you think if we end up with McDavid he'll probably turn out to be a disappointment. Does this apply to Eichel and Hanifin too? Or is it only the best of player in the top 3 that you feel will disappoint if they came to Toronto.

So they won't be able to find a good player outside of the top 5 because they are the leafs and they suck at everything and you think the top 3 pick will fail to live up to the hype because of the Toronto market.

We are pretty much doomed, unless we get pick 4 or 5?

We're doomed regardless.  ;D

 

[Kin]

Thanks for sharing Potvin. There's certainly a lot of hype going into this draft.

I'm still not convinced the Leafs can find an impactful player outside of the top five. Not because there isn't one, but because it the Leafs. ???

So like Tuukka Rask and Alex Steen?

 

[Chris]

I think Santorelli is a bell-weather of what the board/Shanny/Nonis are thinking.

If they see themselves "retooling" within 3 years, then he'll be re-signed. If it's a full re-build, he'l be moved.

That said I wonder if there isn't more value in signing him for the reported 3 years @ $3M and then moving him next trade deadline. It's still a cap friendly deal and teams may move extra assets for the extra 2 years of contract.

It will be interesting to see what direction they go. I could see Santorelli being a good player to keep around if they go the "full rebuild" route, as he seems to have a great work ethic and could be a good example for younger players. Keep Santorelli, trade away as much of the core as possible (and to me that would include Bozak, Kessel, Phaneuf and a few others) for draft picks/young talent, and do a proper rebuild from top to bottom. This would be my preferred approach, unless they can somehow swing a deal for a true #1 center to play with Kessel.

Being the Leafs, though, I suspect they'll go with the "retool" method and wind up spinning their wheels for another 5 years.

 

[Bullfrog]

What makes you think they'll make a bad pick if it's outside of the top 3? They've had some hits and some misses.

Nylander and Rielly are certainly good choices. Gauthier is a bit unknown.

I don't understand why Gauthier is being judge. At WJC he was a very good shutdown defensive center.

I'm doing quite the opposite of judging him. I'm saying he's a bit of an unknown. To elaborate: he's been good in juniors but we don't know how he'll fair as a professional.

 

[Redleaf]

What makes you think they'll make a bad pick if it's outside of the top 3? They've had some hits and some misses.

Nylander and Rielly are certainly good choices. Gauthier is a bit unknown.

I don't understand why Gauthier is being judge. At WJC he was a very good shutdown defensive center.

I'm doing quite the opposite of judging him. I'm saying he's a bit of an unknown. To elaborate: he's been good in juniors but we don't know how he'll fair as a professional.

He's got size and definitely some defensive acumen. He looks more like a good 2nd round pick to me.