Official Armchair GM Thread 2014-2015 Leafs

[Kin]

Reimer and Gardiner (add Nash 1st pick) for Mike Smith and Ekman-Larsson - is a bit nuts since I feel E-L is one of the best dmen in the league.  I was simply playing on the money issues Arizona has and knowing that Smith has a RIDICULOUS contract that Arizona can't afford to deal with... anymore than Columbus could deal with Horton... combined with the financial fact that E-L is heading to $7 MIL a season territory. 

Leaving aside that Arizona has to be at the cap floor and that OEL and Smith are important pieces of the team getting there, there's a fairly good argument right now that it's in Arizona's best interest to lose a bit of money in the next season or so.

 

[Andy007]

How about Berglund in St. Louis? His numbers are down (because there are like a thousand top 6 forwards on that team) and he can probably be acquired somewhat painlessly. Of course, what does St. Louis need that Toronto has, is the immortal question.

I'd probably take a look at E. Staal too.

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

Here's a sample of FA pieces that could be brought in to insulate/fill out the roster next year.

LW's:
Cole, Bergenheim, Glencross, Erat

C's:
Fleischmann, Fisher, Vermette, Peverley

RW's:
Stafford, Ryder, Williams

D's:
Green, Franson, Visnovsky, Meszaros, Ehrhoff, Beauchemin

G's:
Niemi, Fasth

Crossed out guys that will be either be in the market for big money, longer term deals or are probably on the verge of retirement this summer (in which case, they're not likely to sign with a team destined for the basement). These guys aren't exactly the type you bring in to insulate or fill out a roster. If you sign them, they're pieces you think will have long-term value - and those are not the type of pieces the Leafs should be looking for on the UFA market at the beginning of what will hopefully be a large scale rebuild.

Honestly, I think the Leafs should avoid the FA rush.  See what's around after the dust settles and sign some guys to 1-2 year deals at or below market value.  They're probably going to want to evaluate on a year-to-year basis and not get locked into anything at this point.

I tend to agree, but if they can add Fisher/Ehrhoff/Stafford/Glencross at the right price/term then they'd be crazy not to IMO.

 

[moon111]

What is currently happening with the Leafs is ... beautiful.  This is perfection.  I want to see this level of hockey (or worst if possible) for as long as it takes to land a 'McDavid'.  There would be nothing worst then to bring in free-agents to rise to the level of the Ottawa Senators.  You look at the real winners, and in many cases you'll see a horrible string before their Cup wins.  Sometimes it's a Steve Yzerman that turns the franchise around.  Or maybe it's an Eric Lindros that gets traded for a good return.  Sometimes those top picks were traded away for other good players, but those deals are forgotten.  NJ dealing a Muller for Richer.  Tampa Bay dealing Conroy for Stillman.  Sometimes the dive has brought players like Crosby to the team, but other times, a Niedermayer was selected that was an important part of the winning team as well.  Whatever the Leafs are doing, don't fix it PLEASE.  This is the only path to glory, especially with a salary cap in place.  No Free Agents.  Let them flounder with the worst the Marlies can provide.

 

[cw]

But I doubt any GM in the league is going to give the Leafs much to take on seven more years at $8mil per after a third season collapse and pout by Kessel. He's paid like a top 10 player in the NHL but in his prime, not playing like one. It's just too risky for that much cap space in an upcoming season where the cap isn't likely to budge. The Leafs would probably have to eat a some of his contract to get any value back.

I think you (a) undervalue how much offensive production is worth in the NHL (goal scoring is a rare occurrence, goal-scorers are valued heavily) and (b) how much NHL GMs would take into account the last few months compared with the previous body of work Kessel has produced for the Leafs/Bruins.  There's no sense the Leafs over-reacting to a few months of poor play just like another GM shouldn't.

He's produced at an elite level multiple years running and people want to take the last few months and say his value is significantly lower and it's indicative of his play going forward.  We don't know, all we know is that he's performed among the top 10 offensively in the league longer than he's performed like this while a Toronto Maple Leafs player.

Re-read your bolded words above and ask yourself if you'd scramble to get your mitts on a cheque book to pay this guy $8mil/yr for another 7 years right now. Or would you be a little or a lot hesitant.

We've got a guy, who as you say, has been a top 10 scorer or close to it .... sitting at 37th in scoring (which is pretty much all he does) and not looking like he gives a crap. Has Phil gone Alexei Yashin on us? Not even you (in your bolded words) can answer that with certainty right now.

You answered by saying "We don't know"

So folks, including NHL GMs, are going to be like you - pretty wary of signing up to take on a commitment to give him another $56 mil no matter what ... to a guy who may not give a crap any more.

Odds are, Phil will turn it around - at least some. From that, I think the Leafs can move him for more when he does.

I don't think that's undervaluing him - it's trying to get fair value for him when his value is low right now.

 

[Highlander]

Looks like Joe Thorton may be come available for not to much;
http://www.torontosun.com/2015/03/13/joe-thornton-to-gm-stop-lying-shut-your-mouth
Don't ya think?

 

[Bullfrog]

I don't think that's undervaluing him - it's trying to get fair value for him when his value is low right now.

My thinking is more along the lines of Potvin's. I doubt one poor season (where he's again leading the team in points) has much impact at all on his value around the league. His perceived motivation issues have been constant throughout his career. Not many GMs are going to be surprised by this.

 

[moon111]

Looks like Joe Thorton may be come available for not to much;
http://www.torontosun.com/2015/03/13/joe-thornton-to-gm-stop-lying-shut-your-mouth
Don't ya think?

Perfect for a team that could win the Cup.  All he could do for Toronto is make their draft position worst and prolong the suffering.

 

[Chris]

I don't think that's undervaluing him - it's trying to get fair value for him when his value is low right now.

My thinking is more along the lines of Potvin's. I doubt one poor season (where he's again leading the team in points) has much impact at all on his value around the league. His perceived motivation issues have been constant throughout his career. Not many GMs are going to be surprised by this.

I don't know, this is the worst he's ever looked, by far. And it's not just a 10 or 20 game slump, we're talking about half a season. Add on a -30 (and falling) as well.

Then on top of that, he's been an integral part of a team that has collapsed for what, 3 straight years now? I've lost track.

I suspect there are a lot of factors contributing, but if I'm the Leafs and I get a good offer this summer, I take it and don't look back. Kessel probably bounces back to some degree, but why take that chance.

 

[bustaheims]

My thinking is more along the lines of Potvin's. I doubt one poor season (where he's again leading the team in points) has much impact at all on his value around the league. His perceived motivation issues have been constant throughout his career. Not many GMs are going to be surprised by this.

I'm with you, and I feel history is on our side, really. When teams are looking at long-term acquisitions, they're generally not basing the player's value on half a season or even a single full season. They're looking at the last 3+ seasons, looking for trends, finding context for dips in production, etc. A few bad months isn't going to have a significant impact on the value of a player like Kessel. If we were talking about him as a trade deadline, pending UFA rental, that would be one thing, but we're looking at a team getting him for 7 more years at a very reasonable rate for a player than has shown a consistent ability to put up 30+ goals in a season and had been in the top 10 in league scoring for 3 straight seasons coming into this one. GMs have been around this game long enough to know that bad seasons happen and that team wide collapses can't be blamed on a single player, regardless how many they've been part of. While this poor showing certainly has helped Kessel's value, it really will not have hurt it that significantly.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

My thinking is more along the lines of Potvin's. I doubt one poor season (where he's again leading the team in points) has much impact at all on his value around the league. His perceived motivation issues have been constant throughout his career. Not many GMs are going to be surprised by this.

I'm with you, and I feel history is on our side, really. When teams are looking at long-term acquisitions, they're generally not basing the player's value on half a season or even a single full season. They're looking at the last 3+ seasons, looking for trends, finding context for dips in production, etc. A few bad months isn't going to have a significant impact on the value of a player like Kessel. If we were talking about him as a trade deadline, pending UFA rental, that would be one thing, but we're looking at a team getting him for 7 more years at a very reasonable rate for a player than has shown a consistent ability to put up 30+ goals in a season and had been in the top 10 in league scoring for 3 straight seasons coming into this one. GMs have been around this game long enough to know that bad seasons happen and that team wide collapses can't be blamed on a single player, regardless how many they've been part of. While this poor showing certainly has helped Kessel's value, it really will not have hurt it that significantly.

My hope is that:

1.  The Leafs commit to moving Kessel for the max return just prior to the draft
2.  That more than a few teams are interested and drive up the value of said return

 

[OldTimeHockey]

But I doubt any GM in the league is going to give the Leafs much to take on seven more years at $8mil per after a third season collapse and pout by Kessel. He's paid like a top 10 player in the NHL but in his prime, not playing like one. It's just too risky for that much cap space in an upcoming season where the cap isn't likely to budge. The Leafs would probably have to eat a some of his contract to get any value back.

I think you (a) undervalue how much offensive production is worth in the NHL (goal scoring is a rare occurrence, goal-scorers are valued heavily) and (b) how much NHL GMs would take into account the last few months compared with the previous body of work Kessel has produced for the Leafs/Bruins.  There's no sense the Leafs over-reacting to a few months of poor play just like another GM shouldn't.

He's produced at an elite level multiple years running and people want to take the last few months and say his value is significantly lower and it's indicative of his play going forward.  We don't know, all we know is that he's performed among the top 10 offensively in the league longer than he's performed like this while a Toronto Maple Leafs player.

Re-read your bolded words above and ask yourself if you'd scramble to get your mitts on a cheque book to pay this guy $8mil/yr for another 7 years right now. Or would you be a little or a lot hesitant.

We've got a guy, who as you say, has been a top 10 scorer or close to it .... sitting at 37th in scoring (which is pretty much all he does) and not looking like he gives a crap. Has Phil gone Alexei Yashin on us? Not even you (in your bolded words) can answer that with certainty right now.

You answered by saying "We don't know"

So folks, including NHL GMs, are going to be like you - pretty wary of signing up to take on a commitment to give him another $56 mil no matter what ... to a guy who may not give a crap any more.

Odds are, Phil will turn it around - at least some. From that, I think the Leafs can move him for more when he does.

I don't think that's undervaluing him - it's trying to get fair value for him when his value is low right now.

My question to you would be this:

If the fears of all the GM's come true and what you're seeing is "the new Kessel", would his value not drop further?

So, even if his value is lower than say perhaps, the end of last season, do we trade him now, when his value has taken a minimal hit(if any), or do we wait until next season when those fears of 29 GM's come true and Kessel has put up a measly 15 goals and told the media to take a flying leap a few more times?

I'm not 100% sold on dealing Kessel but if we do, I'd rather deal what I know we have as opposed to what we may or may not have a year or two down the road.

 

[Kin]

My thinking is more along the lines of Potvin's. I doubt one poor season (where he's again leading the team in points) has much impact at all on his value around the league. His perceived motivation issues have been constant throughout his career. Not many GMs are going to be surprised by this.

Maybe. But before GM's could look at those perceived motivational issues and say "Well, whatever they are they didn't stop him from having a terrific season". Now that it kind of has I think that combined with the cap crunch a lot of teams are going to feel it will lead to a lot of teams asking themselves hard questions about Kessel.

I don't think the difference is between a really good return and a really bad return but I think that both of those factors are going to significantly reduce the number of teams that are in on Kessel and that will reduce the return for him.

 

[rdowdall]

My thinking is more along the lines of Potvin's. I doubt one poor season (where he's again leading the team in points) has much impact at all on his value around the league. His perceived motivation issues have been constant throughout his career. Not many GMs are going to be surprised by this.

Maybe. But before GM's could look at those perceived motivational issues and say "Well, whatever they are they didn't stop him from having a terrific season". Now that it kind of has I think that combined with the cap crunch a lot of teams are going to feel it will lead to a lot of teams asking themselves hard questions about Kessel.

I don't think the difference is between a really good return and a really bad return but I think that both of those factors are going to significantly reduce the number of teams that are in on Kessel and that will reduce the return for him.

The Gaborik deal to L.A. is probably a good place to start as a guage of what the Leafs might expect in return for Kessel.  Gabroik was a pending FA though, so I don't know how much that would help or hinder his value.

 

[Kin]

The Gaborik deal to L.A. is probably a good place to start as a guage of what the Leafs might expect in return for Kessel.  Gabroik was a pending FA though, so I don't know how much that would help or hinder his value.

Kessel's younger though and doesn't have the injury baggage. On the flip side, I think Gaborik was a better player in his prime.

Anyways, I really think the cap is the key thing here. When people were predicting 80 or 90 million dollar caps down the road then trading for a player like Kessel was a lot less risky. Now any team that trades for Kessel has to ask itself the same question the Leafs are asking, do they want Kessel to be a major part of their team going forward. I think a lot of teams would have had a tough time answering that question before this season and so, to that extent, I think Busta and Bullfrog are right to a degree.

 

[rdowdall]

The Gaborik deal to L.A. is probably a good place to start as a guage of what the Leafs might expect in return for Kessel.  Gabroik was a pending FA though, so I don't know how much that would help or hinder his value.

Kessel's younger though and doesn't have the injury baggage. On the flip side, I think Gaborik was a better player in his prime.

Anyways, I really think the cap is the key thing here. When people were predicting 80 or 90 million dollar caps down the road then trading for a player like Kessel was a lot less risky. Now any team that trades for Kessel has to ask itself the same question the Leafs are asking, do they want Kessel to be a major part of their team going forward. I think a lot of teams would have had a tough time answering that question before this season and so, to that extent, I think Busta and Bullfrog are right to a degree.

That's true.  I think that they San Jose is where he is going to end up.  I think they have the resources to acquire him, the cap space to absorb his contract, and I think that they are in the position where they want to change the dynamic of their team, but they can't really go the full on younger route because of the NMC's that Marleau and Thorton have.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

The Gaborik deal to L.A. is probably a good place to start as a guage of what the Leafs might expect in return for Kessel.  Gabroik was a pending FA though, so I don't know how much that would help or hinder his value.

Kessel's younger though and doesn't have the injury baggage. On the flip side, I think Gaborik was a better player in his prime.

Anyways, I really think the cap is the key thing here. When people were predicting 80 or 90 million dollar caps down the road then trading for a player like Kessel was a lot less risky. Now any team that trades for Kessel has to ask itself the same question the Leafs are asking, do they want Kessel to be a major part of their team going forward. I think a lot of teams would have had a tough time answering that question before this season and so, to that extent, I think Busta and Bullfrog are right to a degree.

That's true.  I think that they San Jose is where he is going to end up.  I think they have the resources to acquire him, the cap space to absorb his contract, and I think that they are in the position where they want to change the dynamic of their team, but they can't really go the full on younger route because of the NMC's that Marleau and Thorton have.

Not happening, the Sharks need to sign 5 forwards, a dman and a goalie for next year and have about 10.5 million to do so.

They'd need to move multiple significant pieces of their lineup to fit Kessel in and at that point your reasoning no longer exists.

 

[rdowdall]

The Gaborik deal to L.A. is probably a good place to start as a guage of what the Leafs might expect in return for Kessel.  Gabroik was a pending FA though, so I don't know how much that would help or hinder his value.

Kessel's younger though and doesn't have the injury baggage. On the flip side, I think Gaborik was a better player in his prime.

Anyways, I really think the cap is the key thing here. When people were predicting 80 or 90 million dollar caps down the road then trading for a player like Kessel was a lot less risky. Now any team that trades for Kessel has to ask itself the same question the Leafs are asking, do they want Kessel to be a major part of their team going forward. I think a lot of teams would have had a tough time answering that question before this season and so, to that extent, I think Busta and Bullfrog are right to a degree.

That's true.  I think that they San Jose is where he is going to end up.  I think they have the resources to acquire him, the cap space to absorb his contract, and I think that they are in the position where they want to change the dynamic of their team, but they can't really go the full on younger route because of the NMC's that Marleau and Thorton have.

Not happening, the Sharks need to sign 5 forwards, a dman and a goalie for next year and have about 10.5 million to do so.

They'd need to move multiple significant pieces of their lineup to fit Kessel in and at that point your reasoning no longer exists.

Not according to this site:

http://stats.nhlnumbers.com/teams/SJS?year=2015

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

I think I was looking at last years numbers.

They likely need to sign a couple of forwards next year, another dman and re-sign Niemi or find a replacement in free agency which will eat around 5 million, some of the young guys they've tried this year have not really worked either.

I still don't see them adding Kessel to the mix given the GM has been trying to break some of the commitments he has already made and regretted.

They have 8 guys eating about 45 million of their cap next season without a number one goalie.

 

[rdowdall]

I think I was looking at last years numbers.

They likely need to sign a couple of forwards next year, another dman and re-sign Niemi or find a replacement in free agency which will eat around 5 million, some of the young guys they've tried this year have not really worked either.

I still don't see them adding Kessel to the mix given the GM has been trying to break some of the commitments he has already made and regretted.

They have 8 guys eating about 45 million of their cap next season without a number one goalie.

Kessel, Polak, and Bernier for all of their picks this year.