sens @ Leafs - Feb 1st, 7:00pm - CBC, TSN 1050

[moon111]

Sportsclubstats.com stuff:

Beat Ottawa 6-3, playoff odds up 8.2 to 67.6%

Pittsburgh  100%
Boston        100%
Tampa Bay  99.7%
*Montreal      84.4% -wildcard
NY Rangers  78.7%
Toronto        67.6%
Columbus    60.3%
New Jersey  47.7%
Carolina      46.6%
Detroit        39.2%
*Philadelphia    32.9% -wildcard
ottawa        27.3% (Tonight's game knocked them down 12.2%)
Washington  15.2
NY Islanders  0.2%
Florida          0.1%
Buffallo        0.0%

I'd just point out that unless PIT and BOS have already clinched their odds can't possibly be 100%.  At least that's what I got from this:

What it means is they simulated all games, with each outcome being 50%.  They did it 10,000,000 times and Pittsburgh and Boston made it every time.

Sports Club Stats calculates each team?s odds of making the playoffs, how each upcoming game will impact those odds, and how well they have to finish out to have a shot. It knows the season schedule and scores for past games. Each time the league owner sends in new scores it simulates the rest of the season by randomly picking scores for each remaining game. The weighted method takes the opponents record and home field advantage into account when randomly picking scores, so the better team is more likely to win. The 50/50 method gives each opponent an equal chance of winning each game. Both methods let an appropriate percent of games end in a tie or go into overtime in leagues where that matters. When it?s finished "playing" all the remaining games it applies the league?s tie breaking rules to see where everyone finished. It repeats this random playing out of the season million of times (try it yourself), keeping track of how many "seasons" each team finishes where. Finally it updates this page with the new results for you to read with your morning coffee.
To help flush out each team?s highest and lowest possible seeds, I force them to win or lose all their remaining games for a small percentage of the simulation runs. Click the league (on the left) to compare all teams.
Playoff odds: The percentage of simulated seasons we made the playoffs.
P W L-OT : Current points, wins, losses in regulation, and losses in overtime. A team gets 2 points for a win, 0 points for a loss in regulation, and 1 point for a loss in overtime.

Source: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Atlantic/Toronto.html

 

[Stickytape]

Those photos contradict what you are saying. It was from the side.

the other weird thing about the hit...kadri hits him on his left side yet he goes into the boards like he had been hit directly in the numbers.  Like he was hit perpendicular to where he was actually hit.  It's like he should fall to the right because he was hit from the left but instead falls (or jumps) directly forward, headfirst into the boards.

Here's a series of images, starting with the one Potvin posted.  Sure, Kadri does start the hit to Ceci's left side.  However, watch the follow-through:

As he delivers the hit, Kadri does not push Ceci to the right - he plants his right foot and pushes Ceci down and into the boards.  As he follows through, his arms move sharply to the left:

He isn't shoving Ceci to the side as you would with a hit from the side, he's shoving him directly into the boards.

He's hitting from the back, and to the left.  From the back, and to the left.  Back, and to the left.  Back and to the left.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

It's hard to say whether he is shoving him that way, or is just following through as normal and, since Ceci goes in that direction, pictures make it seem like he does that.

Just one of those hits where it could go either way, it's a fast game, it happens. Especially if, as Ceci admits, you're turning right before it.

 

[Bullfrog]

I'd just point out that unless PIT and BOS have already clinched their odds can't possibly be 100%.

Obviously. It really just means their odds are 99.95% or greater.

Then list it that way. They have TBL at 99.7.

If they're only using one decimal place, then showing 100% when the odds are 99.95% or greater is the correct way to round.

You should never round up (or down) to a number that's logically incorrect.  They should show it as 99.9% if they only use one decimal place.

You should never sweat the small stuff.

 

[dappleganger]

On the Kadri-Ceci hit: Ceci used Kadri's force and directed himself into the boards. He practically admits as much with his post-game comments. Ceci was trying to draw a boarding penalty. He's not the first player to do it and he won't be the last.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

No discipline for Kadri, according to Cox.

 

[Stickytape]

No discipline for Kadri, according to Cox.

Awesome!

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

How about someone post the hit on Gleason, it was almost a bad neck injury, and from behind. Yet it was just blown off by everyone.

Here you go, skip ahead to 1:09:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AR-yW_41j6Y[/youtube]

Gleason is guided into the boards at slow speed, hits the boards awkwardly, and clearly Purcell is completely apologetic about it.  Gleason obviously hit the boards in a weird way, but it's not remotely a violent hit, mostly just a slow moving puck battle with a guy hitting the boards off-balance.  Yes, no penalty was awarded, but also no goal resulted from the hit.  Despite Gleason's pain after hitting the boards, I'm not convinced there even should have been a penalty.

Kadri's hit was boarding.  There's no question to me it should have been called as such, and to add insult to injury, it resulted in a game-turning goal immediately afterward and as a direct consequence of the play.  The controversy about the play is as much about the lack of a penalty as it is about the goal that immediately followed.  Good for Ceci he wasn't injured, but if you asked me (or probably anybody) to look at both of Purcell's and Kadri's hits, without seeing and knowing about the 'damage' or lack of it from the hit, I or pretty much any reasonable person would figure Kadri's hit to have been the greater offence and the more punishable one.  The fact that a goal resulted is the icing on the cake for Senators fans (or fans of objectivity), and frankly, rightly so.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Kadri's hit was boarding.

It's quite arguable.  The rule for boarding includes this:

However, in determining whether such contact could have been avoided, the circumstances of the check, including whether the opponent put himself in a vulnerable position immediately prior to or simultaneously with the check or whether the check was unavoidable can be considered. This balance must be considered by the Referees when applying this rule.

By Ceci's own admission he turned right before the hit.  I don't think it's just clear cut.

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

Kadri's hit was boarding.

It's quite arguable.  The rule for boarding includes this:

However, in determining whether such contact could have been avoided, the circumstances of the check, including whether the opponent put himself in a vulnerable position immediately prior to or simultaneously with the check or whether the check was unavoidable can be considered. This balance must be considered by the Referees when applying this rule.

By Ceci's own admission he turned right before the hit.  I don't think it's just clear cut.

Okay, it's arguable, though if I were a referee I would have called it.  I agree Ceci put himself in a vulnerable position.  Being more or less stationary with your head down facing the boards a couple feet from the boards is a really bad idea.  Certainly I think Kadri went toward Ceci expecting him to do either of a couple of things that he simply didn't do.  To me, it remains more clearly an infraction than Purcell's contact with Gleason.

But, hey, I'm happy with how it worked out, even more so with no suspension.

 

[nutman]

How about someone post the hit on Gleason, it was almost a bad neck injury, and from behind. Yet it was just blown off by everyone.

Here you go, skip ahead to 1:09:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AR-yW_41j6Y[/youtube]

Gleason is guided into the boards at slow speed, hits the boards awkwardly, and clearly Purcell is completely apologetic about it.  Gleason obviously hit the boards in a weird way, but it's not remotely a violent hit, mostly just a slow moving puck battle with a guy hitting the boards off-balance.  Yes, no penalty was awarded, but also no goal resulted from the hit.  Despite Gleason's pain after hitting the boards, I'm not convinced there even should have been a penalty.

Kadri's hit was boarding.  There's no question to me it should have been called as such, and to add insult to injury, it resulted in a game-turning goal immediately afterward and as a direct consequence of the play.  The controversy about the play is as much about the lack of a penalty as it is about the goal that immediately followed.  Good for Ceci he wasn't injured, but if you asked me (or probably anybody) to look at both of Purcell's and Kadri's hits, without seeing and knowing about the 'damage' or lack of it from the hit, I or pretty much any reasonable person would figure Kadri's hit to have been the greater offence and the more punishable one.  The fact that a goal resulted is the icing on the cake for Senators fans (or fans of objectivity), and frankly, rightly so.

It was slow, but he was right on his back with the number 8 facing him. looked like it could be classed as from behind.

 

[nutman]

Kadri's hit was boarding.

It's quite arguable.  The rule for boarding includes this:

However, in determining whether such contact could have been avoided, the circumstances of the check, including whether the opponent put himself in a vulnerable position immediately prior to or simultaneously with the check or whether the check was unavoidable can be considered. This balance must be considered by the Referees when applying this rule.

By Ceci's own admission he turned right before the hit.  I don't think it's just clear cut.

Okay, it's arguable, though if I were a referee I would have called it.  I agree Ceci put himself in a vulnerable position.  Being more or less stationary with your head down facing the boards a couple feet from the boards is a really bad idea.  Certainly I think Kadri went toward Ceci expecting him to do either of a couple of things that he simply didn't do.  To me, it remains more clearly an infraction than Purcell's contact with Gleason.

But, hey, I'm happy with how it worked out, even more so with no suspension.

Why is you sound very disappointed a Leaf never got suspended. You seem to be anti leaf. I think its the right call if the Gleason call was right.

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

Why is you sound very disappointed a Leaf never got suspended. You seem to be anti leaf. I think its the right call if the Gleason call was right.

I know this may be very hard for you to understand, but it's actually possible to be a fan of the Leafs and still have an opinion that the team or a Leaf player deserved punishment they didn't get.  You're the one who was musing about the Gleason incident and why there's no mass outrage about it, so I figured I'd step up and try to explain to you why that is.  It's not anti-Leaf, it's pro-objectivity.

 

[crazyperfectdevil]

Kadri's hit was boarding.

It's quite arguable.  The rule for boarding includes this:

However, in determining whether such contact could have been avoided, the circumstances of the check, including whether the opponent put himself in a vulnerable position immediately prior to or simultaneously with the check or whether the check was unavoidable can be considered. This balance must be considered by the Referees when applying this rule.

By Ceci's own admission he turned right before the hit.  I don't think it's just clear cut.

Okay, it's arguable, though if I were a referee I would have called it.  I agree Ceci put himself in a vulnerable position.  Being more or less stationary with your head down facing the boards a couple feet from the boards is a really bad idea.  Certainly I think Kadri went toward Ceci expecting him to do either of a couple of things that he simply didn't do.  To me, it remains more clearly an infraction than Purcell's contact with Gleason.

But, hey, I'm happy with how it worked out, even more so with no suspension.

Why is you sound very disappointed a Leaf never got suspended. You seem to be anti leaf. I think its the right call if the Gleason call was right.

thinking that the leafs got away with one there isn't being anti leaf..it's acknowledging the fact that if the roles were reversed leaf fans would be going insane about how that wasn't called....it's definitely a questionable hit ....

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Why is you sound very disappointed a Leaf never got suspended. You seem to be anti leaf. I think its the right call if the Gleason call was right.

I know this may be very hard for you to understand, but it's actually possible to be a fan of the Leafs and still have an opinion that the team or a Leaf player deserved punishment they didn't get.  You're the one who was musing about the Gleason incident and why there's no mass outrage about it, so I figured I'd step up and try to explain to you why that is.  It's not anti-Leaf, it's pro-objectivity.

Pff, is 'go sens go' basically.

 

[moon111]

I thought it was a suspension.  Looked at it a 2nd time.  See the head movement, making it look like he knew the hit was coming.  The leg stiffens up like he was bracing for the hit.  From ice level, the ref might of gotten it right.

 

[sneakyray]

Those photos contradict what you are saying. It was from the side.

the other weird thing about the hit...kadri hits him on his left side yet he goes into the boards like he had been hit directly in the numbers.  Like he was hit perpendicular to where he was actually hit.  It's like he should fall to the right because he was hit from the left but instead falls (or jumps) directly forward, headfirst into the boards.

Here's a series of images, starting with the one Potvin posted.  Sure, Kadri does start the hit to Ceci's left side.  However, watch the follow-through:

As he delivers the hit, Kadri does not push Ceci to the right - he plants his right foot and pushes Ceci down and into the boards.  As he follows through, his arms move sharply to the left:

He isn't shoving Ceci to the side as you would with a hit from the side, he's shoving him directly into the boards.

He's hitting from the back, and to the left.  From the back, and to the left.  Back, and to the left.  Back and to the left.

yep...you're right.  Although I'm not positive that he wasn't just adjusting to go after the puck and thats what motivated his follow through.

but anyways I guess I am surprised that there will be no hearing as it seems the leafs always get the suspension...maybe they feel bad for the 2 free shots he took from the senator while cowan was engaging him.

 

[Kin]

I think one of the things that Kadri's hit does, aside from provide some beautiful and long overdue karmic retribution, is highlight what seems to be an ongoing confusion regarding hits near the boards and is a situation where I think the NHL really needs to, if not show any actual leadership, at least make some clarifications.

Look at the chunk of the rulebook Potvin posted. A ref has to "take into consideration" if a player turned their back but does that mean it negates the act entirely? Mitigates it? There are a lot of sports where players turn their back to shield the ball from another player, sports where measures of contact are allowed in efforts to gain control of the ball, and that's seen as a legitimate tactic, not as a reason why other players are allowed to clobber them when they otherwise wouldn't.

So when Ceci says that he saw Kadri coming and turned to him in an attempt to not get demolished I can't help but feel that whatever the NHL's position on the matter is, it's not getting through to some people. Either the Kadris of the world need to be told to lay up in that situation or the Cecis of the world need to be told that they should brace themselves for the hit they see coming. Right now, and the inconsistency of Shanahan's decisions doesn't help, it seems like the NHL's position on the issue is "both" which seems like it leads to just a ton of dangerous hits and a really arbitrary seeming discipline process. 

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

I think one of the things that Kadri's hit does, aside from provide some beautiful and long overdue karmic retribution, is highlight what seems to be an ongoing confusion regarding hits near the boards and is a situation where I think the NHL really needs to, if not show any actual leadership, at least make some clarifications.

Look at the chunk of the rulebook Potvin posted. A ref has to "take into consideration" if a player turned their back but does that mean it negates the act entirely? Mitigates it? There are a lot of sports where players turn their back to shield the ball from another player, sports where measures of contact are allowed in efforts to gain control of the ball, and that's seen as a legitimate tactic, not as a reason why other players are allowed to clobber them.

So when Ceci says that he saw Kadri coming and turned to him in an attempt to not get demolished I can't help but feel that whatever the NHL's position on the matter is, it's not getting through to some people. Either the Kadris of the world need to be told to lay up in that situation or the Cecis of the world need to be told that they should brace themselves for the hit they see coming. Right now, and the inconsistency of Shanahan's decisions don't help, it seems like the NHL's position on the issue is "both" which seems like it leads to just a ton of dangerous hits and a really arbitrary seeming discipline process.

You seem to be anti-Leaf.

 

[caver]