So, about Phil Kessel...

[Redleaf]

Than again, if he fails under Babcock, he might lose more value.

There's no "might" about it. If Kessel has another bad year he's going to lose more value.

"Cutting your losses" is also a pretty solid financial concept and I believe that it's more likely than not that Kessel struggles next year if he stays around.

Fair enough about his value dropping if he fails under Babcock, but I think he rebounds. Let's see what Shanny and co. think, and if they do decide to move him, for what return? It should be an interesting summer. Perhaps one of the most intriguing off seasons we've seen in a long long time.

 

[Kin]

Fair enough about his value dropping if he fails under Babcock, but I think he rebounds.

I've said this elsewhere but in the absolutely best case scenario, a year where Kessel absolutely tears it up, whatever gains to his value you think there might be will be offset by how his play helps the team win points that hurts their draft position and by his being a year older when they try to trade him. Throw in the ever-present risk of injury that affects every player and there's really not much to go on.

It's not a zero sum game, exactly, but the likelihood of Kessel being a lot more valuable next summer resulting in any actual gains for the team is pretty slight.

 

[Redleaf]

Fair enough about his value dropping if he fails under Babcock, but I think he rebounds.

I've said this elsewhere but in the absolutely best case scenario, a year where Kessel absolutely tears it up, whatever gains to his value you think there might be will be offset by how his play helps the team win points that hurts their draft position and by his being a year older when they try to trade him. Throw in the ever-present risk of injury that affects every player and there's really not much to go on.

It's not a zero sum game, exactly, but the likelihood of Kessel being a lot more valuable next summer resulting in any actual gains for the team is pretty slight.

I think you need to evaluate whether or not Babcock can get him playing at a higher pace. If he can get Kessel back checking and scoring at his regular rate or better, and improve his analytics ,you've inherently got a player with more value next year than you have right now. How anyone can say that that factor alone would effect a teams draft position are reaching a little IMO.

 

[Kin]

How anyone can say that that factor alone would effect a teams draft position are reaching a little IMO.

It's pretty simple. An 80+ point player will help a team win games they otherwise wouldn't. There can be a very slim margin between draft positions.

You also can't assume that players are livestock who you can just feed a little better and they'll happily get fatter and skip towards the abbatoir. The decision on Kessel has to be an honest one. Either he's a part of the team's long term plans or he isn't. Kessel doesn't really have a vested interest in the Leafs getting the best possible return for him so it's pretty unlikely that whatever you think of Babcock he's going to be able to motivate Kessel to play his way out of town.

I don't think Babcock is the type of guy to lie to Kessel so the team will get a slightly better return on him. I think that if Babcock does that it risks it infecting his relationship with other players.

 

[Redleaf]

How anyone can say that that factor alone would effect a teams draft position are reaching a little IMO.

It's pretty simple. An 80+ point player will help a team win games they otherwise wouldn't. There can be a very slim margin between draft positions.

You also can't assume that players are livestock who you can just feed a little better and they'll happily get fatter and skip towards the abbatoir. The decision on Kessel has to be an honest one. Either he's a part of the team's long term plans or he isn't. Kessel doesn't really have a vested interest in the Leafs getting the best possible return for him so it's pretty unlikely that whatever you think of Babcock he's going to be able to motivate Kessel to play his way out of town.

I don't think Babcock is the type of guy to lie to Kessel so the team will get a slightly better return on him. I think that if Babcock does that it risks it infecting his relationship with other players.

But they would have the option to keep him in the mix as well. No ones lying to Kessel. I'll wait and see what they actually do instead of debating our differences of opinion all day long again.  There are options of keeping him or holding him a while longer to look for a better return, should THEY feel that would work under the current situation. That's all I was trying to say. Whether or not you or I feel differently about it really has no weight on the outcome anyways, and it's not getting us anywhere. I am going to end this debate now and crown you the ultimate champion before you take it to Sillyland again. The floor is all yours sir.

 

[Kin]

There are options of keeping him...

Which run counter to the idea of a rebuild. So we're back to square one.

You know those restaurant auctions they have? People with failed restaurants don't hold onto appliances hoping the Fridge market will rebound.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

There are options of keeping him...

Which run counter to the idea of a rebuild. So we're back to square one.

You know those restaurant auctions they have? People with failed restaurants don't hold onto appliances hoping the Fridge market will rebound.

The sentiment that was put forward at Babcock's presser was that they/the Leafs needed to get as many picks as possible into Hunter's hands.  That was echoed last week by Dubas, and brought up again this morning in another Dubas interview.  The need to gather picks and assets.

The best chip the Leafs have in terms of returning picks/prospects is Kessel.  I think Phaneuf probably fits that bill as well.  In a draft that is supposed to be quite deep, the Leafs need to cash those chips and go big in the draft.  And I think they need to do it now and give their prospects a chance to develop together.

I think Kessel gets traded, and that Shanahan takes what the market bears to be free of those contracts and get on with the rebuild. 

 

[Highlander]

At this point I do agree, cash in all your chips for picks and get on with it.

 

[skrackle]

I have to think that at least a few teams that made the playoffs but lost because they just didn't have a game breaker, are going to be interested in Kessel. He would fit nicely on the Blues, Rangers, Wild, to name a few. Of course, any interested team's cap situation has to be considered, but I don't think the mess that Toronto was this year is going to be much of a factor in any GM's evaluation of how adding a player of Kessel's caliber will improve his team.

I expect that Kessel will be traded. I think that he and Phaneuf really should be moved this summer and will be. Bozak needs to be shown the door, but he's a lesser concern right now.

If there's a player who needs to up his value coming into next year's trade deadline, I'd say it's Lupul. Maybe Bernier fits into that category as well.
.

 

[Joe S.]

I love the headline and the article seem to have nothing in common.

http://www.nhl.com/ice/m_news.htm?id=770281

 

[Jolly good show chaps]

Without wanting to go off topic, I really don't like this talk of us being open to trading #4 as per the link in the previous post.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Without wanting to go off topic, I really don't like this talk of us being open to trading #4 as per the link in the previous post.

Every year teams with high picks who aren't slotted to take McDavid/Eichel types say that they're open to moving down, but it very rarely happens.

 

[Peter D.]

Without wanting to go off topic, I really don't like this talk of us being open to trading #4 as per the link in the previous post.

I don't get why teams make proclamations like this when 98% of the time it never comes about. 

However, if the Leafs have a guy rated higher than most and feel he'll go a spot or two lower, or are indifferent towards two or three players and would be satisfied with either/any of them, it is worth exploring trading down to extract another asset while still drafting a player they covet.

 

[Kin]

Without wanting to go off topic, I really don't like this talk of us being open to trading #4 as per the link in the previous post.

Why? The team should be open to anything. What if Florida decided to offer Ekblad and the #11 pick? I mean they won't, but the Leafs would be crazy not to put it out there that if a team lost their mind and wanted to offer way too much to trade into the top 5 that they should give the Leafs a call.

 

[pnjunction]

Trading him is certainly on the table but IMO unless the return is huge it really feels like selling low right now.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

I would find it hilarious if the Leafs went "off the board" with #4. The rage on this site and in the city would be something to behold.

 

[Sudafederov]

I would find it hilarious if the Leafs went "off the board" with #4. The rage on this site and in the city would be something to behold.

Reminds me of when Carey Price got drafted.

https://youtu.be/WLNOtoJ8vb0?t=53

 

[Kin]

I would find it hilarious if the Leafs went "off the board" with #4. The rage on this site and in the city would be something to behold.

Well, I think there's maybe some justification there. If the top three goes McDavid-Eichel-Strome and then the Leafs take, say, Barzal my immediate reaction wouldn't be "those morons!" but rather "they couldn't have traded down?"

 

[MetalRaven]

It sounds like Dubas and co are "comfortable with players in that cluster" So Hanfin, Strome, Marner one of them is gone unless Arizona goes off board, which leaves really only two...I assume they also mean another player but im not at all up to date on who that might be? That still only realistically leaves 1 maybe 2 trading partners to go down assuming all these players are on roughly the same level.