So the debate begins: Matthews vs. Laine

[CarltonTheBear]

Yeah, the only thing odd about the defense comments is that in the ranking he comments on Matthews' defensive game as one of his weaknesses (while not mentioning Laine's at all) but then in the link where he goes into why he chose Laine over Matthews he calls Matthews the better defender.

I can see reasons for mentioning Matthews' defensive play (being a C) so it's not really a big deal to me, but stood out.  Still, like he said for him it's a coin flip.

Well, he only said that Matthews isn't a "defensive stalwart". But that is a little odd since it runs contrary to some of the comparison that are being thrown out there like Toews and Kopitar. Clearly Pronman doesn't agree with those. And those are definitely very lofty comparisons to make. If someone's looking for clickbait examples...

 

[ZBBM]

Sorry, but there's no way you can rank somebody #1 in today's league who is just an average skater, as Pronman admits Laine is.

Again, John Tavares says "hi".

Uh, he's considered average?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Sorry, but there's no way you can rank somebody #1 in today's league who is just an average skater, as Pronman admits Laine is.

Again, John Tavares says "hi".

Uh, he's considered average?

At the time of his draft, yes.

 

[ZBBM]

Sorry, but there's no way you can rank somebody #1 in today's league who is just an average skater, as Pronman admits Laine is.

Again, John Tavares says "hi".

Uh, he's considered average?

At the time of his draft, yes.

I don't remember that but sure, whatever.

 

[bustaheims]

I like Pronman, but how often do guys with skating described as "average" and next to no defensive game go #1 overall?

Seems a little clickbaity to be honest.

I don't see where he said Laine has next to no defensive game, but as for the 1st thing John Tavares?

What about an average skating winger with defensive issues? What throws me off about the review is that he says he's not likely to be able to "jet past" NHL defenceman, and, in today's league, that feels like a necessity for an elite scoring winger.

 

[bustaheims]

I don't remember that but sure, whatever.

A few years ago, there was all sorts of talk about how hard he worked on improving his skating in the off-season in terms of technique and everything, and he was noticeably faster and much more dominant that season. That was roughly around the time he went from being a 65-70 point player to a PPG+ player. It was seen as a pretty big deal at the time, and brought a lot of focus onto how teams were hiring skating specialists and such.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

This is my viewpoint, not Pronman's, but I find it interesting that the two weaknesses in Laine's game that everyone is focusing on, skating and defensive play, are probably the two most coachable deficiencies a 17/18 year old hockey player can have. Especially for a player who apparently has very high hockey IQ and competes at a high level. Heck, most Laine scouting reports point out that his skating has already improved in the past year or so.

 

[ZBBM]

I don't remember that but sure, whatever.

A few years ago, there was all sorts of talk about how hard he worked on improving his skating in the off-season in terms of technique and everything, and he was noticeably faster and much more dominant that season. That was roughly around the time he went from being a 65-70 point player to a PPG+ player. It was seen as a pretty big deal at the time, and brought a lot of focus onto how teams were hiring skating specialists and such.

Very good, thanks Busta and so point well taken CTB.  Though I still am quite wary of a big power winger with just average skating being rated over a once-in-a-blue-moon 1C centerman.

 

[herman]

What about an average skating winger with defensive issues? What throws me off about the review is that he says he's not likely to be able to "jet past" NHL defenceman, and, in today's league, that feels like a necessity for an elite scoring winger.

I don't think it's an absolute necessity if the rest of his line, or D-corps can set up in the zone quite readily, but does keep him from leading transition plays.

This is my viewpoint, not Pronman's, but I find it interesting that the two weaknesses in Laine's game that everyone is focusing on, skating and defensive play, are probably the two most coachable deficiencies a 17/18 year old hockey player can have. Especially for a player who apparently has very high hockey IQ and competes at a high level. Heck, most Laine scouting reports point out that his skating has already improved in the past year or so.

This is a good point. Improved skating helps on both the attack and defense.
For more on skating: http://www.ichill.ca/articles/why-hockey-players-continue-to-get-faster
Dawn Braid, who helped John Tavares overcome his inefficient stride, is a close associate of Barb Underhill.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A61K79dxK38[/youtube]
Featuring current Leaf Peter Holland, and temporary Leaf Taylor Beck.

I'd still prefer Matthews (because his skating and defense can also be further refined). He's already a student of Darryl Belfry (Skills Development Consultant), as was Tavares earlier.

 

[rdowdall]

I don't remember that but sure, whatever.

A few years ago, there was all sorts of talk about how hard he worked on improving his skating in the off-season in terms of technique and everything, and he was noticeably faster and much more dominant that season. That was roughly around the time he went from being a 65-70 point player to a PPG+ player. It was seen as a pretty big deal at the time, and brought a lot of focus onto how teams were hiring skating specialists and such.

Very good, thanks Busta and so point well taken CTB.  Though I still am quite wary of a big power winger with just average skating being rated over a once-in-a-blue-moon 1C centerman.

I think this is where the focus on one player can start to be a detriment.  Unless that player is Crosby or McDavid, then once you focus on a particular player for a while, questions start to arise.  I think it's like how Leaf fans are hard on a particular Leaf defenceman, wishing they were like some other teams defenceman, but if they watched the other teams defenceman they would realize that the difference between the two is smaller than they think.

I'm also not sure that Matthews is a once-in-a-blue-moon centre.  He is probably in the same camp as the Seguin, Toews, Stamkos, Tavares, Eichel which is the really good, bonafide first line center camp, but not the Crosby, McDavid camp.   

 

[bustaheims]

This is my viewpoint, not Pronman's, but I find it interesting that the two weaknesses in Laine's game that everyone is focusing on, skating and defensive play, are probably the two most coachable deficiencies a 17/18 year old hockey player can have. Especially for a player who apparently has very high hockey IQ and competes at a high level. Heck, most Laine scouting reports point out that his skating has already improved in the past year or so.

Skating is only coachable to an extent. There are individual physical limitations on how much players can improve in those areas - and, the ability to do so depends on why it's an issue in the first place. If it's a technical one, it can be fixed much more easily than if it's a physical one. I admit to lacking the expertise to be able to diagnose which area the questions about Laine's skating fall under.

 

[bustaheims]

I'm also not sure that Matthews is a once-in-a-blue-moon centre.  He is probably in the same camp as the Seguin, Toews, Stamkos, Tavares, Eichel which is the really good, bonafide first line center camp, but not the Crosby, McDavid camp. 

I imagine, when people refer to scarcity regarding Matthews, it's less about him being in the absolute upper echelon, but, rather, in the scarcity in opportunities teams have to acquire bonafide first line Cs. There are only so many out there at any give time, and that number is usually smaller than the number of teams in the league.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

What throws me off about the review is that he says he's not likely to be able to "jet past" NHL defenceman, and, in today's league, that feels like a necessity for an elite scoring winger.

Granted, I could definitely be wrong about this because the number of Dallas games I've watched in the past few years is pretty low, but I don't really think that Jamie Benn has the reputation of being an above-average skater and it hasn't exactly held him back very much.

Looking through some scouting reports and watching some video of Benn, I'm actually very surprised that Laine isn't being compared to him at all. Seems like there's a lot of similarities between the two. So even if we boil this down to simplistic, best-case-scenario player comparisons, is taking someone like Jamie Benn over someone like Anze Kopitar that outlandish?

 

[rdowdall]

I'm also not sure that Matthews is a once-in-a-blue-moon centre.  He is probably in the same camp as the Seguin, Toews, Stamkos, Tavares, Eichel which is the really good, bonafide first line center camp, but not the Crosby, McDavid camp. 

I imagine, when people refer to scarcity regarding Matthews, it's less about him being in the absolute upper echelon, but, rather, in the scarcity in opportunities teams have to acquire bonafide first line Cs. There are only so many out there at any give time, and that number is usually smaller than the number of teams in the league.

Agreed.  I find that the hype around Matthews may be getting peoples expectations out of proportion to the player that he is likely to become.  He's probably not a player that is going to win multiple Art Ross trophies or the Maurice Richard trophy.  He's a player though that you can point to and say "there is the Leafs 1C for the next 10 years." 

In general though, deciding that a player is a 1C is a hard thing to quantify.  For example, is Niklas Backstrom a first line center?  Is Bergeron or Kreici?  Is Toews for that matter.  Each one of those centers brings something different to the table.  Some teams, it's just the best center of the group. 

 

[rdowdall]

What throws me off about the review is that he says he's not likely to be able to "jet past" NHL defenceman, and, in today's league, that feels like a necessity for an elite scoring winger.

Granted, I could definitely be wrong about this because the number of Dallas games I've watched in the past few years is pretty low, but I don't really think that Jamie Benn has the reputation of being an above-average skater and it hasn't exactly held him back very much.

Looking through some scouting reports and watching some video of Benn, I'm actually very surprised that Laine isn't being compared to him at all. Seems like there's a lot of similarities between the two. So even if we boil this down to simplistic, best-case-scenario player comparisons, is taking someone like Jamie Benn over someone like Anze Kopitar that outlandish?

I think that the stage the Leafs are at is the question of "Can a team be built around the player we are going to draft that can compete for and win the cup?"

There is a lot of talk about how teams need to be built down the middle.  But what does that mean really?  The Blackhawks have done alright with a high scoring winger, and a more complete two way center.  The thing is, can the Leafs get that complete two-way center to compliment Laine if that is the route they are going to go?

 

[bustaheims]

So even if we boil this down to simplistic, best-case-scenario player comparisons, is taking someone like Jamie Benn over someone like Anze Kopitar that outlandish?

No, and, that sort of scenario is where things like organizational need and positional scarcity come into play. In this case, you're talking about two players with similar value, so BPA is harder to determine. In that scenario, for a team like the Leafs, I take the C. For a team like Buffalo, I might go with the winger.

 

[Kin]

So here's a question then. We've talked about defense/skating being things that can be improved upon and developed as a player ages. Why be so quick to rule out that something similar can be done in terms of position? Are playing the forward spots that different that you can't transition from the slightly easier one to the harder one?

This isn't asking Kaberle to play forward here, most talented forwards will almost certainly have played some center in their lives. It's not ideal, no, but if someone has all of the physical ability required...why not consider it?

 

[bustaheims]

So here's a question then. We've talked about defense/skating being things that can be improved upon and developed as a player ages. Why be so quick to rule out that something similar can be done in terms of position? Are playing the forward spots that different that you can't transition from the slightly easier one to the harder one?

This isn't asking Kaberle to play forward here, most talented forwards will almost certainly have played some center in their lives. It's not ideal, no, but if someone has all of the physical ability required...why not consider it?

I think you also have to look at whether a player's style/strengths lend themselves well to that positional change. And, just in general, when looking at two players with roughly equivalent value, I'd err towards the one who is already playing the more demanding/difficult position. In general, I believe that if a player isn't playing that position in lower leagues - especially when that player is probably the most talented player on their team - there's usually a good reason for it.

 

[Kin]

I think you also have to look at whether a player's style/strengths lend themselves well to that positional change. And, just in general, when looking at two players with roughly equivalent value, I'd err towards the one who is already playing the more demanding/difficult position. In general, I believe that if a player isn't playing that position in lower leagues - especially when that player is probably the most talented player on their team - there's usually a good reason for it.

Maybe. But in a situation like Laine's where he's almost certainly not long for his current team, the reason might be "we want to see Patrick Laine in the most immediately advantageous position for us" rather than concerns about what he might grow into.

Don't get me wrong, I agree with you on most counts. Err towards the C, you don't need to throw learning a new position at an 18 year old while they're trying to excel in the most demanding league in the world, etc but I'm just wondering that if we think players can change drastically from who they are on draft day why that wouldn't be seen as an attractive option. Sure, some players might have skillsets that lend better to the position but there are lots of different kinds of successful centers in the league.

 

[Coco-puffs]

I'm also not sure that Matthews is a once-in-a-blue-moon centre.  He is probably in the same camp as the Seguin, Toews, Stamkos, Tavares, Eichel which is the really good, bonafide first line center camp, but not the Crosby, McDavid camp. 

I imagine, when people refer to scarcity regarding Matthews, it's less about him being in the absolute upper echelon, but, rather, in the scarcity in opportunities teams have to acquire bonafide first line Cs. There are only so many out there at any give time, and that number is usually smaller than the number of teams in the league.

Agreed.  I find that the hype around Matthews may be getting peoples expectations out of proportion to the player that he is likely to become.  He's probably not a player that is going to win multiple Art Ross trophies or the Maurice Richard trophy.  He's a player though that you can point to and say "there is the Leafs 1C for the next 10 years." 

In general though, deciding that a player is a 1C is a hard thing to quantify.  For example, is Niklas Backstrom a first line center?  Is Bergeron or Kreici?  Is Toews for that matter.  Each one of those centers brings something different to the table.  Some teams, it's just the best center of the group.

Backstrom - Yes.  He's Top 15 in the League bar-none, even if alot of his offense comes on the PP instead of at 5v5.  He's pretty good defensively too.
Bergeron - Yes.  One of the TOP 3 Centers defensively and still puts up respectable offense.
Krejci - No.  He's a good 2nd line center IMO. 
Toews - Do I even have to answer that?  He's Top 5 in the NHL, bar none.


Here's my list of the Top 20 Center's in the NHL and you can decide at what point you'd stop labeling them True Bonafide #1 Centers:

Crosby
Toews
McDavid
Tavares
Malkin
Stamkos
Getzlaf (falling quickly)
Kopitar
Seguin
Backstrom

Bergeron
Pavelski
Giroux
Johansen
Johnson (Tyler)
Thornton
Couture
Backes
Nugent-Hopkins
Sedin

Btw, my list probably stops at Tyler Johnson and I'm on the fence with him.  Duchene, MacKinnon, Barkov, Eichel, and Schieffle are all knocking on the door.  Door has closed on Datsyuk and Zetterberg and is coming up quick on Sedin and Thornton from my Top 20 list. 

Goes to show there aren't many in the league and when you have a chance to draft one, you probably shouldn't turn it down.  Unless, you know, we have been tampering and have Stamkos already committed to us.