Stamkos Contract Negotiations

[LuncheonMeat]

That would suggest though that if money was a big factor in Stamkos' decision that he would seriously consider an $8.5mil offer from Tampa Bay because of those factors, which I don't think he ever would. I could see a lower-echelon player being more concerned about this, but for a someone like Stamkos having his number in line with the other elite players in the league is a pretty big deal. Both for him and the NHLPA.

He's also signing an 8-year deal here. What happens in year 3 or 4 if something happens and either he demands a trade or Tampa decides to trade him? Does he only accept a trade to Florida to make sure he's not getting screwed over with the taxes? I think this whole tax thing is a nice bonus for a player signing in Tampa or Florida, but I can't see it effecting a players contract negotiations that much. Everyone still wants to sign a deal that's in line with what the market dictates.

I think most of that is true and it's a big reason why people are saying that Stamkos leaving is a fair bet but I think we all knew that part of Tampa's pitch to Stamkos was going to involve how he would fit into their cap going forward and how paying him what might be the market rate would hamstring their ability to sign other guys on a team that, going into this season, had pretty legitimate championship hopes.

You can look at Chicago and say that they've managed to put together a pretty decent team with Kane and Toews at the top of the cap heap but Tampa doesn't have the luxury of paying Duncan Keith and Marian Hossa far below market prices. They're going to have to negotiate a lot of big contracts in the next few years and so it makes sense for them to try and pitch that angle to Stamkos.

So I think this sort of argument is really just the icing on the cake of their pitch. It's "You get to stay in Tampa, you get to play with this really good team and when you factor in taxes you're doing alright".

And Toronto in turn can say, you get to stay in Toronto (your home town), you get to play with some really good players coming up, and although you get beat a bit more on taxes, you'll hardly realize it when you make your first $100M in endorsement deals.

I think this whole thing really comes down to where do you want to play? I think the money will take of itself in either case (assuming Toronto or Tampa).

 

[Kin]

And Toronto in turn can say, you get to stay in Toronto (your home town), you get to play with some really good players coming up, and although you get beat a bit more on taxes, you'll hardly realize it when you make your first $100M in endorsement deals.

I think that if a team suggested to any hockey player that they could make 100 million dollars in endorsement deals they'd be laughed out of the room.

 

[Peter D.]

Until he puts pen to paper with the Lightning, I'm holding on to the belief that he wants to come home to play. 

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Until he puts pen to paper with the Lightning, I'm holding on to the belief that he wants to come home to play. 

I'm not convinced that he's coming to the Leafs but I'm pretty sure he won't be playing in Tampa after this season.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Just as a bit of a reference Crosby's 6 year deal that he signed with Adidas last year is reportedly worth between $1-1.5mil per year. He also obviously has deals with other companies but they're probably all in that ballpark or less.

 

[Frank E]

Until he puts pen to paper with the Lightning, I'm holding on to the belief that he wants to come home to play. 

I'm not convinced that he's coming to the Leafs but I'm pretty sure he won't be playing in Tampa after this season.

Reverse jinx...I got you.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Until he puts pen to paper with the Lightning, I'm holding on to the belief that he wants to come home to play. 

I'm not convinced that he's coming to the Leafs but I'm pretty sure he won't be playing in Tampa after this season.

Reverse jinx...I got you.

I'm pretty sure I said the exact same thing about Babcock too this time last year.

 

[Kin]

Just as a bit of a reference Crosby's 6 year deal that he signed with Adidas last year is reportedly worth between $1-1.5mil per year. He also obviously has deals with other companies but they're probably all in that ballpark or less.

Forbes estimated Crosby's off-ice earnings at 4.5 million and the total endorsement earnings of the top 10 earners in the league totaled just 13 million.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

And Toronto in turn can say, you get to stay in Toronto (your home town), you get to play with some really good players coming up, and although you get beat a bit more on taxes, you'll hardly realize it when you make your first $100M in endorsement deals.

I think that if a team suggested to any hockey player that they could make 100 million dollars in endorsement deals they'd be laughed out of the room.

It's an arbitrary number. I'm just saying I don't think the dollars/taxes make much of a difference in his decision.

Out of curiosity, does anyone know what the potential would be in terms of endorsements for a guy like Stamkos?

EDIT: From what I could find, it looks like Stamkos makes about $1.5 million/year in endorsements (3rd highest in the league). Second is Ovechkin at $3.5M and Crosby first at about $4.5M/year. I thought those figures would be higher, but apparently I've been living in the US for too long.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Out of curiosity, does anyone know what the potential would be in terms of endorsements for a guy like Stamkos?

This was Forbes' report that Nik mentioned on the highest paid players in 2015-16, they include what they made in endorsements:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2015/11/24/the-nhls-highest-paid-players-2015-16/#486b94f61723

It might not be 100% accurate, but they have Crosby making $4.5mil in endorsements. Ovechkin was at $3mil. Toews at $2.2mil. No one else made over $1mil according to them, including Kane who they have listed at $900k.

Kessel made the list in 2014-15 and they listed his endorsements money at $250,000.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

Out of curiosity, does anyone know what the potential would be in terms of endorsements for a guy like Stamkos?

This was Forbes' report that Nik mentioned on the highest paid players in 2015-16, they include what they made in endorsements:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2015/11/24/the-nhls-highest-paid-players-2015-16/#486b94f61723

It might not be 100% accurate, but they have Crosby making $4.5mil in endorsements. Ovechkin was at $3mil. Toews at $2.2mil. No one else made over $1mil according to them, including Kane who they have listed at $900k.

Kessel made the list in 2014-15 and they listed his endorsements money at $250,000.

For Stamkos I found figures as low as $800K (Forbes), and as high as $1.7M (don't remember). I'm really surprised those numbers are so low. Didn't Stamkos recently do a big Powerade (or some other salty drink) campaign?

 

[Kin]

It's an arbitrary number. I'm just saying I don't think the dollars/taxes make much of a difference in his decision.

Well, without wanting to try and handicap the odds of where he goes, I agree that you've essentially summed up what Toronto's pitch will be. I just think that rather than lean on the idea of endorsement money, which won't really play a big factor, the Leafs will have to come with an offer that's significantly higher than 8.5 per(if that is what Tampa offered).

So the Tampa pitch will be familiarity and lower taxes and Toronto's will probably be the homecoming and a AAV that gives him bragging rights at the All-Star game.

 

[bustaheims]

EDIT: From what I could find, it looks like Stamkos makes about $1.5 million/year in endorsements (3rd highest in the league). Second is Ovechkin at $3.5M and Crosby first at about $4.5M/year. I thought those figures would be higher, but apparently I've been living in the US for too long.

You have to consider the level of appeal a celebrity has and how that impacts sales when talking about endorsements. So, for hockey players, you're looking at a small segment in the US, and a much less valuable population in Canada - so, endorsement values are going to be relatively small, especially when compared to a Tom Brady or a LeBron James, etc. Hockey players just aren't really celebrities in the US the way they are up here.

 

[Kin]

You have to consider the level of appeal a celebrity has and how that impacts sales when talking about endorsements. So, for hockey players, you're looking at a small segment in the US, and a much less valuable population in Canada - so, endorsement values are going to be relatively small, especially when compared to a Tom Brady or a LeBron James, etc. Hockey players just aren't really celebrities in the US the way they are up here.

Also, really the #1 thing that drives endorsement dollars are equipment sales. Basketball players do great because even people who don't go near a basketball court wear sneakers. Golfers do better because that's a whole industry of selling pro-level gear to amateurs. There's not enough people who play hockey regularly for equipment sales to be a big deal and it's not like shoulder pads or skates are things that people wear casually.

Beyond the occasional guy like Brady or Manning I'd be surprised if Football players make a ton off the field either.

 

[Peter D.]

Well, without wanting to try and handicap the odds of where he goes, I agree that you've essentially summed up what Toronto's pitch will be. I just think that rather than lean on the idea of endorsement money, which won't really play a big factor, the Leafs will have to come with an offer that's significantly higher than 8.5 per(if that is what Tampa offered).

This discussion has got me thinking now.  The $100 million figure is obviously extremely inflated.  But I wonder what a talent like Stamkos, in the biggest city/market in Canada, his hometown, whose hockey team is the #1 sporting property in the country, could draw in endorsements.

When I first read about the Crosby and Ovechkin endorsement figures, I was surprised they weren't much higher.  But they're also playing in the States (as is Stamkos now) in a sport which falls well behind the other big three, so the opportunities are probably not as high for them there.

Stamkos comes here and you wonder what he could make -- the big banks will be all over him, the two media companies which own the team, the food companies, Canadian Tire, SportChek, etc.  I would think it'd be at least, if not more, than the $4.5 million Crosby makes.  No?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

This discussion has got me thinking now.  The $100 million figure is obviously extremely inflated.  But I wonder what a talent like Stamkos, in the biggest city/market in Canada, his hometown, whose hockey team is the #1 sporting property in the country, could draw in endorsements.

When I first read about the Crosby and Ovechkin endorsement figures, I was surprised they weren't much higher.  But they're also playing in the States (as is Stamkos now) in a sport which falls well behind the other big three, so the opportunities are probably not as high for them there.

Stamkos comes here and you wonder what he could make -- the big banks will be all over him, the two media companies which own the team, the food companies, Canadian Tire, SportChek, etc.  I would think it'd be at least, if not more, than the $4.5 million Crosby makes.  No?

If you're looking at Canada as a whole I'd imagine that Crosby would still be the bigger name if Stamkos signed in Toronto. I mean yeah Stamkos would be huge in Toronto/Ontario, but I doubt he'd be a big sell in other provinces.

 

[Kin]

This discussion has got me thinking now.  The $100 million figure is obviously extremely inflated.  But I wonder what a talent like Stamkos, in the biggest city/market in Canada, his hometown, whose hockey team is the #1 sporting property in the country, could draw in endorsements.

When I first read about the Crosby and Ovechkin endorsement figures, I was surprised they weren't much higher.  But they're also playing in the States (as is Stamkos now) in a sport which falls well behind the other big three, so the opportunities are probably not as high for them there.

Stamkos comes here and you wonder what he could make -- the big banks will be all over him, the two media companies which own the team, the food companies, Canadian Tire, SportChek, etc.  I would think it'd be at least, if not more, than the $4.5 million Crosby makes.  No?

I doubt it. However they measure the impact a celebrity endorsement has, I really question the impact something like the team they play for would have. I don't think Crosby is hurt at all because he plays in the States vs. a Canadian team. It might even be the opposite. So much of the media we consume is from the States that the more famous someone is down there I think it makes them more visible in general and therefore more valuable to companies.

Or just think it over personally. Would you be more likely to buy something because Steve Stamkos endorses it? Or did Mats Sundin being from Sweden make you like him less and therefore lessen his impact as a celebrity spokesperson?

If Stamkos ever rose to iconic status by doing some of the things Crosby has done...maybe there'd be a bump but we're talking about someone with multiple gold medals and a cup and the hart trophies and on and on. I think those things matter more than someone playing in their hometown.

 

[Peter D.]

Or just think it over personally. Would you be more likely to buy something because Steve Stamkos endorses it? Or did Mats Sundin being from Sweden make you like him less and therefore lessen his impact as a celebrity spokesperson?

I wouldn't buy anything because either of these guys endorsed it.  I do think however this point highlights the fact that having a star player in your market, which Stamkos would be closest to since Sundin left, has appeal.  I just think it would resonate even more with the kid in Markham whose house is two blocks over from where Stamkos grew up. 

If Stamkos ever rose to iconic status by doing some of the things Crosby has done...maybe there'd be a bump but we're talking about someone with multiple gold medals and a cup and the hart trophies and on and on. I think those things matter more than someone playing in their hometown.

Sure.  But my assumption and thought process would also apply to McDavid if he were a Leaf today as opposed to an Oiler. 

 

[bustaheims]

Stamkos comes here and you wonder what he could make -- the big banks will be all over him, the two media companies which own the team, the food companies, Canadian Tire, SportChek, etc.  I would think it'd be at least, if not more, than the $4.5 million Crosby makes.  No?

I don't see it, to be honest. Crosby has much more reach across the country, and he's one of the few NHL players that has name recognition in the US. Canadian endorsements are small by nature. Hockey players don't drive enough extra income to warrant significant payoffs. I mean, I don't know too many people who are going to choose a bank because Stamkos is in their ads. Same with the cable/internet/etc. I don't see people spending more at Canadian Tire thanks to Stamkos, or suddenly buying sporting goods they wouldn't have otherwise been interested in. Would some of these companies like to have him in their ads? Probably. Are they going to shell out big bucks to make it happen? Absolutely not.

 

[Peter D.]

Do we know what Crosby makes solely from Canadian endorsements?