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[Al14]

But you can go around the league and pose that.

Not really. You don't have to wonder what Patrick Kane would look like if he had other all-stars on his team. You don't have to wonder about Ovechkin or Corey Perry or Joe Pavelski having an ok centre.

How many times have we heard about Crosby's wingers?

For the three years in question, the 4 forwards Crosby played the most 5 on 5 time with were Canadian Olympian Chris Kunitz, Pascal Dupuis, James "Better than Kessel" Neal and Evgeni Malkin. On the power play Crosby frequently plays with Kunitz and Malkin.

Seriously, dive into Bozak's offensive numbers without Kessel sometime.

If Bozak had Stamkos/Crosby/Malkin/Perry on his line, would he put up more points than he has with Kessel? I suspect he would because they are better offensive players and they don't fade as much against tougher playoff teams. His +/- would probably improve as well.

Over the last four years so including Kessel's lousy year this year, Kessel and Perry have virtually identical points per 60(2.22 to 2.21) at 5 on 5 and Kessel having a significant edge in all situations(2.84 to 2.62) despite Kessel playing with Bozak and Perry with Getzlaf.

But as to the other three, yes, those three are better players than Kessel.

LOL... Does that mean Bozak equals Getzlaf?  LIRL

 

[cw]

Seriously, dive into Bozak's offensive numbers without Kessel sometime.

Don't really feel the need. He's not a first line center. I know his numbers are not going to be great.

But in today's cap world, we don't get all 30 teams typically icing 6 all stars for their 1st line/1st D pairing/starter.

Talent compromises are getting made. As much as you commented on Sid, this was a long running story:
Finding the elusive 'winger for Crosby'

We've got Getzlaf-Perry and .. who?

Ovechkin-Backstrom and who ?

The Sedins + who?

At times, they find someone ok but a "big three" line is far from the norm in this league so expecting it when looking at league wide stats strike me as closer to pining to the extreme.

There is a little "the grass is greener" when you go around the league.

Quite frankly, with Phil, I'm not sure you'd want an all out offensive center because Phil can't be relied upon defensively. You need someone like Bozak as a defensive checking conscience (though preferably with more scoring skill).

 

[CarltonTheBear]

You need someone like Bozak as a defensive checking conscience.

I haven't heard someone refer to Bozak as that in awhile. Thanks for the laugh.

 

[cw]

You need someone like Bozak as a defensive checking conscience.

I haven't heard someone refer to Bozak as that in awhile. Thanks for the laugh.

You're welcome. 

I stepped in that one.

Rightly or wrongly, I felt he had progressed some in that department in recent seasons. 

Clearly, if it ever truly existed, that went out the window this year.

 

[Kin]

Don't really feel the need. He's not a first line center. I know his numbers are not going to be great.

Not great is a pretty significant understatement.

But in today's cap world, we don't get all 30 teams typically icing 6 all stars for their 1st line/1st D pairing/starter.

Kessel hasn't really played with anyone like that at all. Most other top players in the league have at least one of those guys. Over the last 4 years the only Maple Leafs defenseman to have played 1000+ minutes and be in the top 75 defensemen in terms of 5 on 5 per 60 scoring is Cody Franson, . JVR's a decent complimentary piece but not a great player. Kessel hasn't once shared the ice with a great offensive player while a Leaf and, flat out, that is not something you can say about most other top players in the league. Crosby does play with Malkin and Letang, Kane does play with Toews and Keith, the Sedins, well, are plural.

We've got Getzlaf-Perry and .. who?

Ovechkin-Backstrom and who ?

The Sedins + who?

At times, they find someone ok but a "big three" line is far from the norm in this league so expecting it when looking at league wide stats strike me as closer to pining to the extreme.

Leaving aside the above point about how all of those duos represent something Kessel has never had, I think you're underestimating the impact a really good centre can have on a really good winger. That's a more specific thing than just a 3rd winger on a line with two dynamic offensive players. There's a reason why centres are seen as so valuable.

Again, look at Bozak's numbers. Not just scoring, look at his numbers in terms of possession. They're terrible.

You need someone like Bozak as a defensive checking conscience (though preferably with more scoring skill).

Sure, in as much as by "someone like Bozak" you mean someone who, like Bozak, is a living, breathing human being only one who, unlike Bozak, is a particularly good defensive hockey player.

 

[mr grieves]

And them replacing Kulemin/Crabb/whoever arguably helped Kessel's scoring.

Man, just imagine what sort of numbers he could put up with a legit #1 centre or with a decent secondary scoring line.

But you can go around the league and pose that.

How many times have we heard about Crosby's wingers?

If Bozak had Stamkos/Crosby/Malkin/Perry on his line, would he put up more points than he has with Kessel? I suspect he would because they are better offensive players and they don't fade as much against tougher playoff teams. His +/- would probably improve as well.

I don't understand how any of those players would make Bozak a better passer or improve his ability to take a pass. I dunno. Maybe Crosby would be better at banking pucks off him into the net, but the implication that Kessel is somehow holding Bozak back doesn't pass any sort of test.

 

[freer]

And them replacing Kulemin/Crabb/whoever arguably helped Kessel's scoring.

Man, just imagine what sort of numbers he could put up with a legit #1 centre or with a decent secondary scoring line.

But you can go around the league and pose that.

How many times have we heard about Crosby's wingers?

If Bozak had Stamkos/Crosby/Malkin/Perry on his line, would he put up more points than he has with Kessel? I suspect he would because they are better offensive players and they don't fade as much against tougher playoff teams. His +/- would probably improve as well.

I don't understand how any of those players would make Bozak a better passer or improve his ability to take a pass. I dunno. Maybe Crosby would be better at banking pucks off him into the net, but the implication that Kessel is somehow holding Bozak back doesn't pass any sort of test.

Kessel is not holding anyone back. Kessel IMO has played like garbage since the new year. Bozak will be a good second line center on a different team the same as Kessel will be a first line winger on another team.

 

[Al14]

And them replacing Kulemin/Crabb/whoever arguably helped Kessel's scoring.

Man, just imagine what sort of numbers he could put up with a legit #1 centre or with a decent secondary scoring line.

But you can go around the league and pose that.

How many times have we heard about Crosby's wingers?

If Bozak had Stamkos/Crosby/Malkin/Perry on his line, would he put up more points than he has with Kessel? I suspect he would because they are better offensive players and they don't fade as much against tougher playoff teams. His +/- would probably improve as well.

I don't understand how any of those players would make Bozak a better passer or improve his ability to take a pass. I dunno. Maybe Crosby would be better at banking pucks off him into the net, but the implication that Kessel is somehow holding Bozak back doesn't pass any sort of test.

Kessel is not holding anyone back. Kessel IMO has played like garbage since the new year. Bozak will be a good second line center on a different team the same as Kessel will be a first line winger on another team.

The sooner this core has been traded, the better.  The whole core will likely be much better players split up on new teams.  The chemistry just didn't work out here for whatever reasons!

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

You need someone like Bozak as a defensive checking conscience.

I haven't heard someone refer to Bozak as that in awhile. Thanks for the laugh.

From 2011-14 when together their CA/60 [shot attempts against] is 65.23 and when Tyler 'Defensive Checking Conscience" Bozak is away from Kessel his CA/60 is 72.78.  Kessel's away is 68.75 (not good either).

Where it really gets bad is together their CF% is 46.7%, Kessel away from Bozak is 45.7% and Bozak away from Kessel is 36.3%.  Now there's likely a host of sample size and other issues you'd have to go through but still...36.3%! Woof.

 

[Al14]

You need someone like Bozak as a defensive checking conscience.

I haven't heard someone refer to Bozak as that in awhile. Thanks for the laugh.

From 2011-14 when together their CA/60 [shot attempts against] is 65.23 and when Tyler 'Defensive Checking Conscience" Bozak is away from Kessel his CA/60 is 72.78.  Kessel's away is 68.75 (not good either).

Where it really gets bad is together their CF% is 46.7%, Kessel away from Bozak is 45.7% and Bozak away from Kessel is 36.3%.  Now there's likely a host of sample size and other issues you'd have to go through but still...36.3%! Woof.

Bozak needs to go too, that's the bottom line.

 

[cw]

Don't really feel the need. He's not a first line center. I know his numbers are not going to be great.

Not great is a pretty significant understatement.

But in today's cap world, we don't get all 30 teams typically icing 6 all stars for their 1st line/1st D pairing/starter.

Kessel hasn't really played with anyone like that at all. Most other top players in the league have at least one of those guys. Over the last 4 years the only Maple Leafs defenseman to have played 1000+ minutes and be in the top 75 defensemen in terms of 5 on 5 per 60 scoring is Cody Franson, . JVR's a decent complimentary piece but not a great player. Kessel hasn't once shared the ice with a great offensive player while a Leaf and, flat out, that is not something you can say about most other top players in the league. Crosby does play with Malkin and Letang, Kane does play with Toews and Keith, the Sedins, well, are plural.

Part of that comes around to my problem with Burke's acquisition of Kessel in the first place and the retooling plan. Burke wasn't likely to get a top 3 pick to deliver an elite center (or top flight winger). And Kessel was coming in under his second and last contract before UFA status so his time as a bargain was limited. It hampered and rushed trying to construct a young core with elite skill to play with Kessel. We were stuck with "found wallets" like Bozak. It was already apparent at that time that the chances of an elite UFA center coming on the market and arriving in Toronto were much slimer. The odds of Burke failing were correspondlingly increased.

So we can lament Kessel doesn't have someone as elite to play with but it was forseen by some when Burke made the deal. It's not like we can come up with an extensive list of such talent that Burke let slip through his fingers because the GMs were already locking it up before it hit the UFA market. And I don't see a center like that missed in the 2010-2012 drafts by the Leafs and playing up to a good level now.

We've got Getzlaf-Perry and .. who?

Ovechkin-Backstrom and who ?

The Sedins + who?

At times, they find someone ok but a "big three" line is far from the norm in this league so expecting it when looking at league wide stats strike me as closer to pining to the extreme.

Leaving aside the above point about how all of those duos represent something Kessel has never had, I think you're underestimating the impact a really good centre can have on a really good winger. That's a more specific thing than just a 3rd winger on a line with two dynamic offensive players. There's a reason why centres are seen as so valuable.

Again, look at Bozak's numbers. Not just scoring, look at his numbers in terms of possession. They're terrible.

One pattern:
All those pairs were both drafted by the team they're playing for,
Sedins: #2 & #3 overall
Ovechkin-Backstrom - #1 & #4 overall
Crosby-Malkin - #1 & #1 overall
Kane-Toews - #1 & #3 overall

where we might have some hope (but the odds are less of it happening):
Getzlaf-Perry #19 & #28 overall
Kopitar-Carter - #11 & #11 (Philly) overall

and the odds of this is probably like winning Lotto 649
Datsyuk-Zetterberg - #171 & #210 overall

Kessel's 27 so trying to draft someone now for him doesn't make a ton of sense because by the time they peak, he's on the downside of his career.

And so the rebuild I wanted in 2006 is finally underway.

What could be done with Kessel is maybe what they did for Bure in Vancouver: Cliff Ronning and then Linden (Kozlov in FLA was arguably underrated) or what they did for Lafleur in Montreal: Jacques Lemaire. Both those guys had some skill, were mobile but were good two ways to help cover for the defensive problems caused when these thoroughbreds get skating all over the place. Boston has a good one in Bergeron. Leafs could counter with Kadri but that might be a defensive nightmare. I'm not convinced a second offensive superstar at center is the best answer for a one dimensional scoring skill like Kessel. And Kessel needs some muscle to win puck battles he can't be bothered with: Lucic & Savard worked well in Boston in that fashion. I don't think JvR is a bad fit in that regard if they had a better two way center.

 

[iwas11in67]

Ok, sorry if this has been asked many times but I haven't seen it.

IF we finish 4th last, can I understand it that we can only pick 1st 4th or 5th in the draft?

 

[AvroArrow]

Ok, sorry if this has been asked many times but I haven't seen it.

IF we finish 4th last, can I understand it that we can only pick 1st 4th or 5th in the draft?

For this offseason, that is correct.  It'll change next offseason I believe.

 

[iwas11in67]

Thanks AA

 

[Bates]

I think you win the thread!!!

Can we go back to blaming Colton Orr and Frazer Maclaren?  Not as many numbers to deal with.

 

[Kin]

So we can lament Kessel doesn't have someone as elite to play with but it was forseen by some when Burke made the deal. It's not like we can come up with an extensive list of such talent that Burke let slip through his fingers because the GMs were already locking it up before it hit the UFA market. And I don't see a center like that missed in the 2010-2012 drafts by the Leafs and playing up to a good level now.

No disagreement. It was a bad, poorly considered deal and speaks to how poorly thought out the "retool, not rebuild" strategy was. I don't think anyone on this board would make me take the back seat on criticizing that trade.

 

[mr grieves]

Part of that comes around to my problem with Burke's acquisition of Kessel in the first place and the retooling plan. Burke wasn't likely to get a top 3 pick to deliver an elite center (or top flight winger). And Kessel was coming in under his second and last contract before UFA status so his time as a bargain was limited. It hampered and rushed trying to construct a young core with elite skill to play with Kessel. We were stuck with "found wallets" like Bozak. It was already apparent at that time that the chances of an elite UFA center coming on the market and arriving in Toronto were much slimer. The odds of Burke failing were correspondlingly increased.

So we can lament Kessel doesn't have someone as elite to play with but it was forseen by some when Burke made the deal. It's not like we can come up with an extensive list of such talent that Burke let slip through his fingers because the GMs were already locking it up before it hit the UFA market. And I don't see a center like that missed in the 2010-2012 drafts by the Leafs and playing up to a good level now.

Which more and more people are coming around to as the explanation for this era. The good parts they got were got without a sensible plan to buy the necessary other parts. Analogies to buying an Eames chair for your dorm room, fancy stereo for mom's old Corolla, Tiffany cufflinks for threadbare Value Village castoff present themselves.

I still wouldn't blame the chair, stereo, or cufflinks.

Also, I think still sort of think a bit more careful thought about who to hold and who to cut bait on, a more intelligent rolling of the roster, would've made this a somewhat better team over the last couple of years and made this a less ugly/painful process now. Then again, we wouldn't have Nylander and (hopefully) McDavid/Strome/Marner and whatever third piece we get next year to go along with Rielly.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Carolina also lost last night, so they remain just 1 point ahead of us but still have 2 games in hand. Columbus is 8 points ahead of us, Edmonton 9 behind (both having a game in hand). So with just a few weeks left it looks like it's just down to us and Carolina for the 4-5 spots pre-lottery.

 

[AvroArrow]

Carolina also lost last night, so they remain just 1 point ahead of us but still have 2 games in hand. Columbus is 8 points ahead of us, Edmonton 9 behind (both having a game in hand). So with just a few weeks left it looks like it's just down to us and Carolina for the 4-5 spots pre-lottery.

I've been putting all my hopes into Columbus winning so that we don't drop to 6th - haven't bothered worrying about Carolina.  I'll be happy with whatever we get at either 4th or 5th.

 

[cw]

Part of that comes around to my problem with Burke's acquisition of Kessel in the first place and the retooling plan. Burke wasn't likely to get a top 3 pick to deliver an elite center (or top flight winger). And Kessel was coming in under his second and last contract before UFA status so his time as a bargain was limited. It hampered and rushed trying to construct a young core with elite skill to play with Kessel. We were stuck with "found wallets" like Bozak. It was already apparent at that time that the chances of an elite UFA center coming on the market and arriving in Toronto were much slimer. The odds of Burke failing were correspondlingly increased.

So we can lament Kessel doesn't have someone as elite to play with but it was forseen by some when Burke made the deal. It's not like we can come up with an extensive list of such talent that Burke let slip through his fingers because the GMs were already locking it up before it hit the UFA market. And I don't see a center like that missed in the 2010-2012 drafts by the Leafs and playing up to a good level now.

Which more and more people are coming around to as the explanation for this era. The good parts they got were got without a sensible plan to buy the necessary other parts. Analogies to buying an Eames chair for your dorm room, fancy stereo for mom's old Corolla, Tiffany cufflinks for threadbare Value Village castoff present themselves.

I still wouldn't blame the chair, stereo, or cufflinks.

Also, I think still sort of think a bit more careful thought about who to hold and who to cut bait on, a more intelligent rolling of the roster, would've made this a somewhat better team over the last couple of years and made this a less ugly/painful process now. Then again, we wouldn't have Nylander and (hopefully) McDavid/Strome/Marner and whatever third piece we get next year to go along with Rielly.

I think the first step is getting rid of Nonis. Burke bears some responsibility for where we find ourselves but so does Dave. Some examples:

1. When Burke got gassed, Nonis continued top 6/bottom 6 that the majority of the league had moved away from and if the Leafs had done so sooner, I contend (and did while Burke was still around), it would have made them more competitive.

2. Nonis resisted doing anything in analytics until Shanahan gave him little choice. I don't think analytics is the answer to everything but it is key part of the future of assessing and managing talent in this sport. We've been discussing the flaws in NHL stats for nearly 20 years on line

3. Nonis signed a bunch of these contracts - some that are not going to be easy to unload - committing a couple of hundred million to the core of this roster. Someone else, not attached to the management legacy of these contracts, should shed them

4. Burke promised to change the culture of the franchise. Nonis promised to carry on that work. The roster we have today has more talent than they're demonstrating but the worst character as a group I've seen over the last 50 years. I question Nonis' judgement in collecting and committing contracts to this group of characters under the banner of "changing the culture" for the better.

5. Why is Morgan Rielly on this roster? What is the point? All it does is cost the Leafs contractually for the balance of his career because his agent is going to be walking into his next contract negotiation with a bunch of comparables to all the NHL games he's racked up.

Here's how a good NHL GM gets good value in a cap system from their kids:
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/teams/dr00005492.html
here's a comparable:
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/teams/dr00008490.html

Case study: examine the price performance of Kronwall's contract history vs say Luke Schenn (not entirely fair/easy because they're not the same quality of player and timing).
But the Wings got Kronwall on his last deal for $3 mil/yr between 2008-2012.
http://stats.nhlnumbers.com/player_stats/187-kronwall-niklas
The Leafs paid Luke Schenn between $2.975 and $3.6 mil/yr between 2009 and 2012
http://stats.nhlnumbers.com/player_stats/1041-schenn-luke

Who do you think got the better value for their contract dollar?

There is a relationship between when a guy starts playing in the NHL and how much his contract is. Kronwall was a 1st rounder drafted in 2000 and didn't play full time in the NHL until 2006 - so they didn't have to pay him as much (one year delay maybe due to lockout). Schenn was drafted in June 2008 and started with the Leafs the following September.

Next summer (2016) we get to look forward to over paying Morgan Rielly, who could have still been playing on an entry deal if he was brought along more gradually,  because his agent will be pointing out he's played the third or fourth most NHL games out of his draft class. And when Morgan hits 25-26, he'll probably be finally settling in to play well like most good young NHL dman do ... heading for UFA status the following summer - where we'll be paying through the nose to keep him (instead of paying him Kronwall-like dollars for a second deal)- all because the Leafs lacked patience and smarts.

The first off season transaction should be showing Nonis the door. it's a no brainer. You almost can't go wrong on that decision. If they haven't got anyone lined up, hire/appoint someone on an interim basis to start cleaning up the mess.