Boston Leaf
New member
cw said:mr grieves said:cw said:Part of that comes around to my problem with Burke's acquisition of Kessel in the first place and the retooling plan. Burke wasn't likely to get a top 3 pick to deliver an elite center (or top flight winger). And Kessel was coming in under his second and last contract before UFA status so his time as a bargain was limited. It hampered and rushed trying to construct a young core with elite skill to play with Kessel. We were stuck with "found wallets" like Bozak. It was already apparent at that time that the chances of an elite UFA center coming on the market and arriving in Toronto were much slimer. The odds of Burke failing were correspondlingly increased.
So we can lament Kessel doesn't have someone as elite to play with but it was forseen by some when Burke made the deal. It's not like we can come up with an extensive list of such talent that Burke let slip through his fingers because the GMs were already locking it up before it hit the UFA market. And I don't see a center like that missed in the 2010-2012 drafts by the Leafs and playing up to a good level now.
Which more and more people are coming around to as the explanation for this era. The good parts they got were got without a sensible plan to buy the necessary other parts. Analogies to buying an Eames chair for your dorm room, fancy stereo for mom's old Corolla, Tiffany cufflinks for threadbare Value Village castoff present themselves.
I still wouldn't blame the chair, stereo, or cufflinks.
Also, I think still sort of think a bit more careful thought about who to hold and who to cut bait on, a more intelligent rolling of the roster, would've made this a somewhat better team over the last couple of years and made this a less ugly/painful process now. Then again, we wouldn't have Nylander and (hopefully) McDavid/Strome/Marner and whatever third piece we get next year to go along with Rielly.
I think the first step is getting rid of Nonis. Burke bears some responsibility for where we find ourselves but so does Dave. Some examples:
1. When Burke got gassed, Nonis continued top 6/bottom 6 that the majority of the league had moved away from and if the Leafs had done so sooner, I contend (and did while Burke was still around), it would have made them more competitive.
2. Nonis resisted doing anything in analytics until Shanahan gave him little choice. I don't think analytics is the answer to everything but it is key part of the future of assessing and managing talent in this sport. We've been discussing the flaws in NHL stats for nearly 20 years on line
3. Nonis signed a bunch of these contracts - some that are not going to be easy to unload - committing a couple of hundred million to the core of this roster. Someone else, not attached to the management legacy of these contracts, should shed them
4. Burke promised to change the culture of the franchise. Nonis promised to carry on that work. The roster we have today has more talent than they're demonstrating but the worst character as a group I've seen over the last 50 years. I question Nonis' judgement in collecting and committing contracts to this group of characters under the banner of "changing the culture" for the better.
5. Why is Morgan Rielly on this roster? What is the point? All it does is cost the Leafs contractually for the balance of his career because his agent is going to be walking into his next contract negotiation with a bunch of comparables to all the NHL games he's racked up.
Here's how a good NHL GM gets good value in a cap system from their kids:
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/teams/dr00005492.html
here's a comparable:
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/teams/dr00008490.html
Case study: examine the price performance of Kronwall's contract history vs say Luke Schenn (not entirely fair/easy because they're not the same quality of player and timing).
But the Wings got Kronwall on his last deal for $3 mil/yr between 2008-2012.
http://stats.nhlnumbers.com/player_stats/187-kronwall-niklas
The Leafs paid Luke Schenn between $2.975 and $3.6 mil/yr between 2009 and 2012
http://stats.nhlnumbers.com/player_stats/1041-schenn-luke
Who do you think got the better value for their contract dollar?
There is a relationship between when a guy starts playing in the NHL and how much his contract is. Kronwall was a 1st rounder drafted in 2000 and didn't play full time in the NHL until 2006 - so they didn't have to pay him as much (one year delay maybe due to lockout). Schenn was drafted in June 2008 and started with the Leafs the following September.
Next summer (2016) we get to look forward to over paying Morgan Rielly, who could have still been playing on an entry deal if he was brought along more gradually, because his agent will be pointing out he's played the third or fourth most NHL games out of his draft class. And when Morgan hits 25-26, he'll probably be finally settling in to play well like most good young NHL dman do ... heading for UFA status the following summer - where we'll be paying through the nose to keep him (instead of paying him Kronwall-like dollars for a second deal)- all because the Leafs lacked patience and smarts.
The first off season transaction should be showing Nonis the door. it's a no brainer. You almost can't go wrong on that decision. If they haven't got anyone lined up, hire/appoint someone on an interim basis to start cleaning up the mess.
darn that's depressing. The truth hurts. Good write up though
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