The Defensive Logjam

[herman]

The Athletic has a nice piece out on the work that Robidas has been doing with the Marlies defense corps, especially Dermott, Nielsen, and Valiev.

https://theathletic.com/60329/2017/05/15/how-stephane-robidas-became-an-integral-member-of-the-toronto-marlies-staff-this-spring/

He comes off the books this off-season, but I hope he stays on in a coaching capacity. It's mentioned obliquely as well (and not for the first time), but there's another hint that this management group factors attitude into their initially mystifying personnel decisions.

 

[Highlander]

(Positive) attitude is almost everything, it surmounts many deficiencies, it reflects the best qualities, courage, optimism, perseverance, work ethic, and general humanity.  So in fact we are trying to develop the best humans that are available to us. Nice thought.

 

[herman]

State of the Defense Corps - May 16, 2017

LD Cap Hit	12.66		RD Cap Hit	6.70
Left Defense	Cap Hit (M)	Expiry	Right Defense	Cap Hit (M)	Expiry
Morgan Rielly	5.00	2022 - UFA	Nikita Zaitsev	4.50	2024 - UFA
Jake Gardiner	4.05	2019 - UFA	Alexey Marchenko	1.45	2018 - RFA
Martin Marincin	1.25	2018 - RFA	Connor Carrick	0.75	2018 - RFA
Travis Dermott	0.89	2019 - RFA	Justin Holl	--	2017 - RFA
Rinat Valiev	0.78	2018 - RFA
Andrew Nielsen	0.69	2019 - RFA
Calle Rosen	?	2019 - RFA
Andreas Borgman	?	2019 - RFA

Blue = Under contract beyond next season
Teal = ELC

 

[cabber24]

I really like Sissons two way game and expect him to pickup the scoring next year.

He's never really been a particularly prolific scorer at any level, so I doubt his output increases in any real significant way. He probably settles into the 10-12 goal a season range, with the occasional season at 15+.

I think he's a little better then that, not a bad game last night. I still think if they think he will be unprotected that he could be traded or taken by Vegas.

 

[herman]

Score a hattie to win a playoff series and you're going to get (over)paid one way or another, whether that's a sustainable output or otherwise.

GMs dig goals.

 

[bustaheims]

I think he's a little better then that, not a bad game last night. I still think if they think he will be unprotected that he could be traded or taken by Vegas.

He had a good game, yeas. Oddly enough, his second hat trick, despite only having a total of 18 goals in 135 career games (regular season and playoffs). Nevertheless, as I said, he wasn't a particularly prolific scorer at any level. He's very unlikely to become more than an okay goal scorer at the NHL level.

 

[sickbeast]

Lots of defense taken by the Leafs in the draft, herman.  Little by little this is turning into a legitimate thread and a proper usage of the English language. 

 

[ZBBM]

Thank God Hunter is leading the way to preserve the Queen's English.

Babcock's usage is deplorable.  Dubas is too young to know all the words yet.  And Lou is impossible to judge because he refuses to give us a minimum sample size.

 

[herman]

Let's talk (really early) about Gardiner: How much will he command? 6? 7?
Will Dermott/Rosen/Borgman/Nielsen/Tradepiece gain enough coaching confidence to make Gardiner expendable?

This thread on r/leafs threw me for a loop for a bit.
https://www.reddit.com/r/leafs/comments/6k39hk/gardiner_is_underrated/djj55eo/

If even by then, we cannot acquire a 1RD, I'm of the mind that Rielly would make a pretty good 1RD as the other lefty options rise in usage.

Gardiner - Rielly
Dermott - Zaitsev
Re-signedSwede - Liljegren

 

[CarltonTheBear]

There are 16 defencemen in the league with a cap hit higher than $6mil, and the only one of them who hasn't hit 50 points is Brent Seabrook (who has seasons of 48 and 49 points plus Cupzzz). Defencemen generally only get paid big bucks for putting up points, and Gardiner's only surpassed 40 points once in his career. I think if he puts up back-to-back seasons of 45 points then we can start talking about maybe doing $6mil, but I'd guess he's in the 5-5.9mil range. The talents that he brings to the table still aren't really being properly valued in the marketplace. The fact that he doesn't PK or play against top competition will also hurt him.

I mean, look at a guy like Shattenkirk. He does a lot of the same things that Gardiner does in terms of shot metrics, has a lot of the same perceived faults, and puts up a crap ton of more points (particularly on the PP) and I'm starting to wonder if he even hits the $7mil mark that he was apparently looking for.

 

[herman]

A la the Nylander/Marner cap hit discussion, how does the defensive pay-scale of those comparables look as percentage of the salary cap? I might chart this out when I have time.

I've been thinking about this a bit throughout the year too: the strategy used in offensive scenarios is not the traditional one from the past 4-5 seasons, and definitely differs from the one employed by the likes of Philadelphia, Nashville, Tampa, where point shots (and scoring from defensemen) are not leveraged as direct sources of scoring (even on the PP). Part of this is because of the makeup of our defense corps, and part of it is the prowess of our forward depth.

Our most similar shot chart is probably Pittsburgh, but theirs is even better.

I wonder if another part of it is a deliberate suppression of defensemen points for the salary implications Carlton elucidated above. Sounds a bit contrived (this is a random musing after all), but it certainly becomes a side benefit to a deliberate on-ice strategy decision. It's not like our defensemen are completely lacking in offensive ability either: our top 4 were are all offensively inclined, and both Zaitsev and Gardiner have +shots from the blueline.

 

[herman]

Reviving this thread just to grind some certain people's gears.

The top 4 are filled, and we have some interesting options for the bottom 4.
Gardiner - Zaitsev
Rielly - Hainsey


Marincin, Dermott, Rosen, Borgman, Valiev, Nielsen
Carrick, Liljegren, Holl, Polak*

*PTO

I think we'll see Carrick, Marincin, and Rosen round out the defense, and then eventually Polak midseason when he's back up to 'speed'.

Dermott - Liljegren is destined to be a top 4 Marlies pairing that grows into the Leafs next season (or one more for Liljegren).

The nice thing about this season's defensive logjam is that Carrick and Marincin are the only real waiver risks, and neither are likely to be lost for free. Rosen and Borgman (and Dermott and Valiev) are easy callups to spell injuries.

Chris Johnston has a really nice profile piece on Calle Rosen. Apparently they used to call him Coffey. His footwork is quite slick.

 

[gilmourthegreat]

Reviving this thread just to grind some certain people's gears.

The top 4 are filled, and we have some interesting options for the bottom 4.
Gardiner - Zaitsev
Rielly - Hainsey

I think you're right for now, but Hainsey doesn't strike me as a guy guaranteed to play in the top 4 all year long. He's old and left handed and seems to struggle with a heavy workload, regardless of his willingness to handle it.

It makes you wonder what it would have taken to get Hamonic.

 

[herman]

Last year, Babcock declared that Zaitsev would receive his NHL training alongside Matt Hunwick, and that lasted almost two whole games

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/jonassiegel/status/910906178749784065
www.twitter.com/jonassiegel/status/910906178749784065

Womp womp

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/jonassiegel/status/910906178749784065
www.twitter.com/jonassiegel/status/910906178749784065

Womp womp

You could say the same thing about Brown, he's yet to be on a line that we expect will make up one of the team top-4 forward lines (has been with Sosh/Leivo-Aaltonen). So I wouldn't reach much into that yet. Also he was originally paired with Borgman, and only switched to LoVerde once Zaitsev had to miss practice because of his kid we're assuming.

I'm still reasonable comfortable saying that he's a lock for at least a roster spot, and he has the inside track for the 3LD spot because of his penalty killing abilities. Especially now that it looks like Polak isn't a consideration.

If anything I think that Carrick is more at risk of losing a spot in the top-6 to one of the Swedes than Marincin is, handedness be damned.

 

[herman]

I?m inclined to agree, re: Marincin. The ride down to Ricoh is free for the others, so they?d have to really blow the doors off to warrant a spot over the cheapo waiver-eligible options.

 

[gunnar36]

Valiev doesn't get seem to get any mention for those spots, but I really liked what I saw from him against the Sens. He has good size and reach, smooth skater with mobility, seems very poised with the puck and seems to make smart plays.  I hope he is given a fair chance as well since I see a lot more upside in his game over what Marincin has shown me for a couple seasons.

 

[hockeyfan1]

(via theathletic.com)

On Marincin:

Babcock not too favourable:

?He?s never really grabbed hold of it yet,? the coach said. ?And so what happens in the league if you don?t eventually grab hold of it, you?re not in the league anymore.?

Obviously Babcock has so far been impressed with Travis Dermott, as quoted in an earlier pre-season tread.  Why?

Dermott was one of only two players Babcock singled out as having played well after the first game. (He finished at 67 per cent possession, albeit with favourable zone starts.)

He's got a real nice strength and determination about him, a blend of speed, skill and power.

 

[herman]

https://theathletic.com/110224/2017/09/28/wheeler-breaking-down-the-battle-for-the-maple-leafs-third-defence-pairing/

Wheeler breaks down the 4 players vying to round out our defense to open the season.

I too have noticed Carrick's return to form of dynamic offensive defense, compared to last season's play-it-safeism. He's starting to drive down to the circles to take his shots again with some heads up puck handling.

https://twitter.com/JeffVeillette/status/913193456255635456

I think Marincin is still the perfect 7D option. You won't be miffed to sit him, and you will also like the presence he has on the PK. His shot is also very underrated (because he's not in position to use it as much as back in junior).

Ros?n is my pick for the 6th to play with Carrick. Though he is not the most skilled with the puck, he has the speed and elusiveness to carry it to safety, no panic to his play, and (when it's on target) a heck of a shot.

Borgman and Dermott, I really like and will look forward to seeing them wreck the AHL with Liljegren. They're both tanks, but one goes through obstacles, while the other can dance around trouble. Like Carrick, these two are also crazy strong. Dermott in particular also has unusually high stamina. MLHS posted this Dermott shift from last night that showcases his strength, vision, and puck movement that will only get better with top minutes.