Trade Deadline Options

[CarltonTheBear]

He wasn't playing on their 3rd line.  He led their forwards in ice-time his last two games.

He's bounced around the line-up a bit, and has played on their 3rd line with Lowry and Thorburn lately. But it's kind of like Kadri playing with Panik and Booth right now, just because he's playing with 3rd liners doesn't mean he's getting 3rd line minutes.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

He wasn't playing on their 3rd line.  He led their forwards in ice-time his last two games.

He's bounced around the line-up a bit, and has played on their 3rd line with Lowry and Thorburn lately. But it's kind of like Kadri playing with Panik and Booth right now, just because he's playing with 3rd liners doesn't mean he's getting 3rd line minutes.

Yeah, I mean I'm sure he's bounced around a bit but generally speaking he's not being played like a 3rd liner.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

He wasn't playing on their 3rd line.  He led their forwards in ice-time his last two games.

He's bounced around the line-up a bit, and has played on their 3rd line with Lowry and Thorburn lately. But it's kind of like Kadri playing with Panik and Booth right now, just because he's playing with 3rd liners doesn't mean he's getting 3rd line minutes.

From Elliott Friedman's most recent 30 Thoughts:

Keep an eye on Kane?s usage. He averaged 20:17 per game last season, highest among Winnipeg forwards. In his first game after sitting, he came in it at 19:03, second to Blake Wheeler. But Maurice rode him hard the final two nights of the season, 22:03 and 21:18, comfortably ahead of the other forwards. He?s at 19:18 this year, slightly behind Andrew Ladd, Bryan Little and Wheeler.

If Lupul could stay healthy he could be a good fit there on the left wing, and is capable of putting up good numbers with those minutes.

 

[slapshot]

There are also players like John Doherty (Leafs second round pick in 2003). On the other hand, Dustin Byfuglien didn't go until the 8th round.

I think a valid argument could be made to either keep or trade Santorelli. If he isn't interested in staying in Toronto for a reasonable deal, then you obviously trade him (and it sounds like that may be the case). If he is willing to sign a reasonable deal, then you have to consider whether he would be a good character player to keep around during the early stages of a rebuild.

If they choose to go that route, that is.

That would be my assessment as well. As bad as the Leafs may appear, I think sound management can start to get this turned around in a year or two. I think it's more about changing the mix and adding a couple of quality pieces. If the Leafs can land in the top five and pick up a building piece at centre or first pairing d-potential, that's one step. The progress of guys like Nylander, Brown and possibly one of their Marlies d-men is another. They have at least 5 experienced and desirable forwards in Kessel, JVR, Kadri, Lupul and Bozak that they could move a piece or two here to change the culture and get some substantial in return.

Moving Franson and/or Phaneuf will bring return in assets and cap space.

Probably the biggest predictor will be Bernier, will he play like the Bernier of last year or most of this year. I think he'll turn it around, especially if the Leafs get more committed to defence.

Then there is the question of Clarkson. Some may say impossible to move that contract. I am sure there is always a way. Maybe the Devils might take him back if the Leafs ate a million or so off the contract. Would they have signed him to a $4 million multi-year deal 1.5 years ago? Maybe. Of course, he's cycled downward with the Leafs, but maybe old familiar surroundings and system might serve him better.

On the Marlie side, a couple of interesting things: Tyler Biggs has been moved to centre and is starting to thrive in the new role, though not necessarily on the scoreboard. Dineen has spoken highly of him and he sounds a lot more confident. If he only turned out to be a monster 4th line centre who could bang and crash, play d and win draws, I'd take that. Gauthier and Biggs would be sizable, if they were both to pan out. Another guy that's improved a lot with the Marlies this year is Andrew MacWilliams, who Dineen also speaks highly of. He's a tough, stay at home guy, who has some size and a mean streak. He's only 24, and they say he is one of the most improved. Also a late Leaf draftee, wouldn't that be a rarity. I'd like to see guys like this get a shot just to see how they make out. The last half of this year what have we got to lose?

 

[Chris]

Regarding Santorelli, sometimes "a bird in the hand..." If you've got a good character guy that you think would help a young developing team, why chance trying to replace that guy on the open market if you don't have to? Not all "character guys" are created equal, not everyone can thrive in the Toronto fishbowl (*cough* Clarkson).

If management thinks they can acquire a top center to work with Kessel - either by trade or by draft (and it would have to be someone who could step in within a year or two, tops), then I'd be in favor of attempting a re-tool based around Kessel. That would mean moving out some of the core that has failed the last 3 or 4 years (that group includes Lupul, Bozak, Phaneuf, Gardiner, Franson, JVR). If management feels that they can't find a good center in that time frame, I think they need to move Kessel (and Santorelli), hoard draft picks and prospects, and do a total rebuild.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

Regarding Santorelli, sometimes "a bird in the hand..." If you've got a good character guy that you think would help a young developing team, why chance trying to replace that guy on the open market if you don't have to? Not all "character guys" are created equal, not everyone can thrive in the Toronto fishbowl (*cough* Clarkson).

If management thinks they can acquire a top center to work with Kessel - either by trade or by draft (and it would have to be someone who could step in within a year or two, tops), then I'd be in favor of attempting a re-tool based around Kessel. That would mean moving out some of the core that has failed the last 3 or 4 years (that group includes Lupul, Bozak, Phaneuf, Gardiner, Franson, JVR). If management feels that they can't find a good center in that time frame, I think they need to move Kessel (and Santorelli), hoard draft picks and prospects, and do a total rebuild.

Two things:  cap space and draft picks.  As far as a retool, this team has produced some of the most dramatic results in terms of futility/meltdowns/bad streaks that their fan base has seen in decades.  There's no way they're kept together to do it a fifth time.

If the Leafs could trade for a 1C (they can't), they would still have cap issues moving forward so some contracts/$$ will have to move either way.  And unless they win the McDavid sweepstakes, a potential 1C from this draft is still going to be at least a few years away from realizing that potential.

 

[Kin]

Regarding Santorelli, sometimes "a bird in the hand..." If you've got a good character guy that you think would help a young developing team, why chance trying to replace that guy on the open market if you don't have to?

Because the chance that they'll be able to find a character guy on Santorelli's level or higher on the open market is immeasurably higher than the chance that another team will just give them draft picks out of a sense of charity.

 

[Chris]

They have plenty of assets that can be moved to acquire draft picks.

Regarding the "re-tool",  I agree. They can't keep that core together. The question is whether the blow it up entirely or choose one or two pieces to keep and build/retool around. Knowing the Leafs, what approach do you think they'll take? Do they have the stomach to blow it up and start from ground zero? I'd love to see it but have my doubts.

And what if some of those shots off posts start going in and the team starts winning games (which will probably happen)?

 

[Kin]

They have plenty of assets that can be moved to acquire draft picks.

And those assets typically fall into one of two categories. Either they're not terribly desirable players that we'd all be fine with seeing the back of(Lupul, Bozak) who aren't likely to fetch a great return or they're players like Kessel/Gardiner/JVR who the Leafs can't reasonably expect to replace in the off-season. Even guys who sort of fall in between those two, like Phaneuf, are players the Leafs can't easily replace at a low cost.

Santorelli is one of the few assets that the Leafs have who doesn't fit into either category. He's exactly the kind of player teams overbid on at the deadline and guys of his ilk are available every off-season.

Likewise, considering that the big pieces aren't likely to get moved at the Deadline but instead at the Draft there's real value to this team getting considerably worse right now. Every little bit helps.

 

[caver]

Regarding Santorelli, sometimes "a bird in the hand..." If you've got a good character guy that you think would help a young developing team, why chance trying to replace that guy on the open market if you don't have to?

Because the chance that they'll be able to find a character guy on Santorelli's level or higher on the open market is immeasurably higher than the chance that another team will just give them draft picks out of a sense of charity.

Agreed..and with the Leafs cap position it makes huge sense to look for UFA's or cast offs who can fill bottom 6 roles...if they can turn into trade worthy assets like Winnik or Santorelli it's a bonus...play the Moneyball game again this summer...and on the flip side of this..they probably couldn't fit this team under the cap next year with some expected raises coming..and nobody wants to see this team as it is currently assembled for another season. 

 

[Chris]

I think some are missing what I'm saying here.

If you go the full rebuild route, you presumably dump a lot of big salaries (somehow) - some combination of Phaneuf, Kessel, JVR, Bozak, etc. Then it doesn't matter so much what a guy like Santorelli is making because we will no longer be near the cap limit. And if you (management) think that Santorelli is a good guy to keep around, and he wants to be around for a rebuild (probably not), then you can sign him to a reasonable deal.

On the other hand, if you plan on keeping the current roster largely intact, or retooling by replacing some big contracts with other big contracts (O'Reilly), then you obviously can't afford Santorelli and you trade him for whatever.

If someone is willing to pony up a 1st rounder, you probably trade him in either case. But if the going rate is a 2nd or 3rd rounder from a top contender, then I don't think it's so obvious.

 

[Kin]

If you go the full rebuild route, you presumably dump a lot of big salaries (somehow) - some combination of Phaneuf, Kessel, JVR, Bozak, etc. Then it doesn't matter so much what a guy like Santorelli is making because we will no longer be near the cap limit. And if you (management) think that Santorelli is a good guy to keep around, and he wants to be around for a rebuild (probably not), then you can sign him to a reasonable deal.

Whereas what I'm saying is that if the Leafs are rebuilding, which they absolutely should, then it's imperative that they maximize the assets currently on the roster in order to have as many picks/young players as possible. There is no point where in trading some combination of the guys you mention where they'll have "enough" picks so as they don't have to worry about adding more. There is no method of building a team that is fool proof and there is no point where a team has too many good young assets(and if there is, those are the easiest things to trade).

Even if someone were inclined to put a ton of stock in the idea that Santorelli's character or work ethic or whatever were really valuable in a rebuild then you can try to sign him in free agency or, by virtue of the cap space they should have, go after the best character guy available. For a player like Santorelli, being able to overpay by 500k or so on a short term deal could have real sway and give the Leafs their pick of whatever third liners they want in the offseason without sacrificing their ability to accumulate picks in a very deep draft.

I think what a lot of people like myself are really not going to accept is that whatever sort of benefit you might think "character" plays to a rebuilding team Santorelli's character is not so unique and valuable that it outweighs tangible assets.

 

[moon111]

I'm kind of happy to see a close race in the Western conference.  San Jose, Calgary, Winnipeg, Vancouver, Colorado, Minnesota, Dallas, Los Angeles could all decide to make a move for 'now' with the Leafs.

I also think the relationship with the players/management/media/fans is done.  It's time for change. 

Also would like to point out, I believe the Phaneuf trade was mostly Nonis's doing, not Burke's.

 

[slapshot]

If you go the full rebuild route, you presumably dump a lot of big salaries (somehow) - some combination of Phaneuf, Kessel, JVR, Bozak, etc. Then it doesn't matter so much what a guy like Santorelli is making because we will no longer be near the cap limit. And if you (management) think that Santorelli is a good guy to keep around, and he wants to be around for a rebuild (probably not), then you can sign him to a reasonable deal.

Whereas what I'm saying is that if the Leafs are rebuilding, which they absolutely should, then it's imperative that they maximize the assets currently on the roster in order to have as many picks/young players as possible. There is no point where in trading some combination of the guys you mention where they'll have "enough" picks so as they don't have to worry about adding more. There is no method of building a team that is fool proof and there is no point where a team has too many good young assets(and if there is, those are the easiest things to trade).

Even if someone were inclined to put a ton of stock in the idea that Santorelli's character or work ethic or whatever were really valuable in a rebuild then you can try to sign him in free agency or, by virtue of the cap space they should have, go after the best character guy available. For a player like Santorelli, being able to overpay by 500k or so on a short term deal could have real sway and give the Leafs their pick of whatever third liners they want in the offseason without sacrificing their ability to accumulate picks in a very deep draft.

I think what a lot of people like myself are really not going to accept is that whatever sort of benefit you might think "character" plays to a rebuilding team Santorelli's character is not so unique and valuable that it outweighs tangible assets.

Tangible: "capable of being appraised at an actual or approximate value." Draft picks, especially, outside of the first round are far from being tangible. They are typically very unpredictable. Granted accumulating them should increase the odds, but more importantly is the ability of the scouting division.

 

[Kin]

Tangible: "capable of being appraised at an actual or approximate value." Draft picks, especially, outside of the first round are far from being tangible.

No, draft picks are very capable of being appraised at an actual or approximate value. Draft picks can be used to select prospects, sure, but they can also be used to trade for players or prospects or other draft picks and their value is something we commonly discuss. When we say that Santorelli or Winnik might fetch us a second then we're approximating the value of a second round pick. 

Even if a pick is used then a prospect will similarly be a tangible asset. The mistake you're making is confusing "tangible" with "significant". Someone like Matt Finn, for example, has a value around the league if the Leafs wanted to trade him either for a pick or in a package for an established player. That value might be nothing or very little but it's still tangible.