Trade Deadline

[herman]

I'm starting to think that it's more likely that JVR and/or Bozak will get re-signed than it is that they'll get traded. I think one of them walks on July 1st and the other is brought back. Not sure which one. Not saying that's what I would do, that's just my gut feeling.

I've been feeling that for the past couple of months, but solely for JvR.

The front office really really likes him (like really). His game as a skilled complementary winger doesn't really impede any of our star players (who need the puck) as he just goes to the front and does his thing. He plays a position where we are organizationally shallow, he is a fanatic about hockey and the professional athlete's upkeep (he wants to be Marleau), and he is a true student of the game.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I've been feeling that for the past couple of months, but solely for JvR.

The front office really really likes him (like really). His game as a skilled complementary winger doesn't really impede any of our star players (who need the puck) as he just goes to the front and does his thing. He plays a position where we are organizationally shallow, he is a fanatic about hockey and the professional athlete's upkeep (he wants to be Marleau), and he is a true student of the game.

Yeah, I really feel like we're going to see that Oshie-style deal with him. $5.75mil x 8 years.

Then with Bozak I think he'll be offered a 3-year deal with a slightly reduced salary, say $3.8mil. He turns 32 in March, and I don't see him getting a contract much more than that. I think people around the league know that he's not capable of being a 2C on a good team. I'm sure some teams could offer him a little more than that but I could see him wanting to stay here where he's comfortable. If he takes it, great. If not, the Leafs will have to look at other options externally. I don't think the they want Nylander there quite yet.

 

[Chris]

I understand the desire to have Nylander at center, but he and Matthews work so well together. Maybe we have someone else in the system who can step into the RW position with Matthews, but I don't think he's currently on the roster. Brown doesn't work, Leivo...hasn't been tried but I think he's too similar to Hyman (with a better shot). Maybe the better approach will be to replace Hyman. Maybe Kapanen would work well with Matthews.

As for JVR...I have mixed feelings. A lot of games he seems to really not do much, you don't really notice him. He's not great along the boards, not overly fast, doesn't really drive play by himself. But he is great at what he does - score from in close, screen, etc. Great hands. So how much of the cap is that worth, and for how many years. 8 years seems like a long time.

 

[herman]

I've been feeling that for the past couple of months, but solely for JvR.

The front office really really likes him (like really). His game as a skilled complementary winger doesn't really impede any of our star players (who need the puck) as he just goes to the front and does his thing. He plays a position where we are organizationally shallow, he is a fanatic about hockey and the professional athlete's upkeep (he wants to be Marleau), and he is a true student of the game.

Yeah, I really feel like we're going to see that Oshie-style deal with him. $5.75mil x 8 years.

Then with Bozak I think he'll be offered a 3-year deal with a slightly reduced salary, say $3.8mil. He turns 32 in March, and I don't see him getting a contract much more than that. I think people around the league know that he's not capable of being a 2C on a good team. I'm sure some teams could offer him a little more than that but I could see him wanting to stay here where he's comfortable. If he takes it, great. If not, the Leafs will have to look at other options externally. I don't think the they want Nylander there quite yet.

JvR himself also doesn't really care about money (not like Karlsson or Doughty); his agent probably does, but he himself has said he really wants to stay here somewhat regardless of the cost.

My problem with Bozak is that he currently can't anchor a sheltered scoring line, which is really how deep playoff drives tend to happen (which is why JvR might be considered critical). Maybe Bozak turns it up for the stretch drive and proves me wrong. I can see him getting re-signed for 3ish as well on very short term. The front office seems to really like setting up temporary veterans and seeing which developing player will force their hand in supplanting them.

 

[herman]

Even though I hate long term UFA overspends, even the most inept GM seems to get out from them scott-free after at most a year or two of frustration.

JvR's playstyle has longevity to it, so as long as he can keep skating, he'll still quietly produce near the top of the team with limited minutes.

The cap amount is going up next year by 5M. There's a potential buyout window opening with the CBA expiry in a couple of years, as well as expansion teams opening up within an 8 year timeframe for creative dump-off solutions.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

One guy who I would target on defence would be New Jersey's Damon Severson. 23 years old, right handed shot, signed to a 6-year deal that just started with a cap hit of $4.166mil. He's sort of like a poor mans Anton Stralman (but not that much poorer).

There aren't really any hard rumours that he's available, but the trade for Vatanen and the play of another righty Steven Santini seems to have bumped him down the line-up. And he's about to be a healthy scratch for a 2nd straight game (plus he was healthy scratched earlier this season too even before the Vatanen trade).

 

[herman]

One guy who I would target on defence would be New Jersey's Damon Severson. 23 years old, right handed shot, signed to a 6-year deal that just started with a cap hit of $4.166mil. He's sort of like a poor mans Anton Stralman (but not that much poorer).

There aren't really any hard rumours that he's available, but the trade for Vatanen and the play of another righty Steven Santini seems to have bumped him down the line-up. And he's about to be a healthy scratch for a 2nd straight game (plus he was healthy scratched earlier this season too even before the Vatanen trade).

https://www.allaboutthejersey.com/2018/1/3/16842812/public-service-announcement-damon-severson-is-the-devils-best-defender

CtB... are you... All About the Jersey?

I for one have always kind of liked Severson and thought he was the only defenseman they had.

 

[AvroArrow]

There's no way that Babcock can like JvR that much... He floats a lot lately... Frequently late to loose pucks...

I know he scores a lot, but I do t hink he'll be worth his new contract... I hope they don't sign him and take a chance on a UFA or an internal promotion.

 

[Highlander]

I agree, he seems to be floating a lot. JVR tune into the PVR

 

[sickbeast]

Yeah but what if they do something wily like trade Van Riemsdyk, Bozak, and Komarov for defensive help, and then let Kapanen and Leivo play every day?  That would be a great move IMO.

Moving JvR depends strongly on the return - too weak, and it gives the impression they're throwing in the towel. As for Bozak, they're just not deep enough down the middle to move him without bringing another C in - so, again, seems like throwing in the towel. Unless they really fall off to bubble team status, I don't think either of those two get moved unless there's a huge offer on the table.

I'm with busta here...centre depth isn't great right now, but I suppose Marleau could move there to ride out the year.  There's a post on PPP that's suggesting the Leafs should chase Pacioretty.  The post suggests a pretty massive package that I can't even get my head around for a guy with only 1 year left on his deal.

Trading JVR, Komarov, and Bozak, and Moore, I have a feeling that's why the goat is getting a look.  This season looks to me just like last year...they're just not ready to take the next step yet. 

And another thing...anyone thinking that Leivo and Kapanen can replace the offense of Bozak and JVR is dreaming.  Neither guys are even regular NHLers at this point, and suggesting they replace guys who combine for over 100 points a season is bananas.  If Kapanen and Leivo are playing in those kind of roles, they've thrown in the towel on the season.

Kapanen and Leivo won't replace Bozak and Van Riemdyk's scoring, sure, but the Leafs would hopefully get a couple of good defensemen out of the deal that they sorely need.  Leivo and Kapanen aren't doing the team any good in the press box or in the minors.  Leivo in particular has got to be getting pretty frustrated.  He's done well when he's played and he has never once been rewarded.  I quite like him personally.  Kapanen is skilled also.  We'll see what the front office does.

 

[Zee]

Marc Bergevin has started the trading frenzy by dealing highly sought after quasi-Cuban goaltender Al (Tony) Montoya to the Oilers for a 4th!

https://www.nhl.com/news/al-montoya-traded-to-oilers-by-canadiens/c-294670246


How will other GMs respond with this earth shattering move???

 

[OldTimeHockey]

Yeah but what if they do something wily like trade Van Riemsdyk, Bozak, and Komarov for defensive help, and then let Kapanen and Leivo play every day?  That would be a great move IMO.

Moving JvR depends strongly on the return - too weak, and it gives the impression they're throwing in the towel. As for Bozak, they're just not deep enough down the middle to move him without bringing another C in - so, again, seems like throwing in the towel. Unless they really fall off to bubble team status, I don't think either of those two get moved unless there's a huge offer on the table.

I'm with busta here...centre depth isn't great right now, but I suppose Marleau could move there to ride out the year.  There's a post on PPP that's suggesting the Leafs should chase Pacioretty.  The post suggests a pretty massive package that I can't even get my head around for a guy with only 1 year left on his deal.

Trading JVR, Komarov, and Bozak, and Moore, I have a feeling that's why the goat is getting a look.  This season looks to me just like last year...they're just not ready to take the next step yet. 

And another thing...anyone thinking that Leivo and Kapanen can replace the offense of Bozak and JVR is dreaming.  Neither guys are even regular NHLers at this point, and suggesting they replace guys who combine for over 100 points a season is bananas.  If Kapanen and Leivo are playing in those kind of roles, they've thrown in the towel on the season.

Kapanen and Leivo won't replace Bozak and Van Riemdyk's scoring, sure, but the Leafs would hopefully get a couple of good defensemen out of the deal that they sorely need.  Leivo and Kapanen aren't doing the team any good in the press box or in the minors.  Leivo in particular has got to be getting pretty frustrated.  He's done well when he's played and he has never once been rewarded.  I quite like him personally.  Kapanen is skilled also.  We'll see what the front office does.

I watched Leivo through his JR days and from watching him so far in the NHL, his tendencies have not changed. He has good hands and a fairly good shot. His foot speed is fairly slow and his puck decisions can leave you questioning his actual grasp of the game. He also has the tendency to take nights off. Often. That one has yet to be proven as he's yet to play much.

Would I like to see him play more so we at least know what we have? Yes. Do I think he's anywhere close to JVR? Not even. In fact, I'm not sure we'd ever see Leivo be more than a 4th liner that can fill in on the 3rd line from time to time.

 

[Chris]

Once again...the idea isn't that Leivo and/or Kapanen will replace JVR's scoring. Not going to happen, at least not immediately. JVR has some very useful positive attributes - standing in front screening the goalie, great hands in close - but what else does he offer? He's not particularly fast, not great along the boards (not physical at all for his size), not great defensively. So if you can move him to bring in someone who actually improves the defense, and you bring in NHL ready Kapanen who is more tenacious, faster, good along the boards, potential PKer, will chip in some scoring - the overall team could be improved even if the scoring drops off a bit. There is some risk to be sure, but pretty much everyone agrees we need to shore up the back end.

I don't think this team is ready to challenge for the cup right now so the smartest approach might be to move him if the return is decent, and especially if it improves the defense.

 

[bustaheims]

Once again...the idea isn't that Leivo and/or Kapanen will replace JVR's scoring. Not going to happen, at least not immediately. JVR has some very useful positive attributes - standing in front screening the goalie, great hands in close - but what else does he offer? He's not particularly fast, not great along the boards (not physical at all for his size), not great defensively. So if you can move him to bring in someone who actually improves the defense, and you bring in NHL ready Kapanen who is more tenacious, faster, good along the boards, potential PKer, will chip in some scoring - the overall team could be improved even if the scoring drops off a bit. There is some risk to be sure, but pretty much everyone agrees we need to shore up the back end.

I don't think this team is ready to challenge for the cup right now so the smartest approach might be to move him if the return is decent, and especially if it improves the defense.

This. You can't just look at replacing JvR's scoring, but the overall impact of moving him. I'm fairly confident the Leafs have a guy internally that can score ~20 instead of JvR's ~30, but while also being better defensively and improving other areas of the team - and that could very easily put the team in a better position moving forward.

 

[ZBBM]

Once again...the idea isn't that Leivo and/or Kapanen will replace JVR's scoring. Not going to happen, at least not immediately. JVR has some very useful positive attributes - standing in front screening the goalie, great hands in close - but what else does he offer? He's not particularly fast, not great along the boards (not physical at all for his size), not great defensively. So if you can move him to bring in someone who actually improves the defense, and you bring in NHL ready Kapanen who is more tenacious, faster, good along the boards, potential PKer, will chip in some scoring - the overall team could be improved even if the scoring drops off a bit. There is some risk to be sure, but pretty much everyone agrees we need to shore up the back end.

I don't think this team is ready to challenge for the cup right now so the smartest approach might be to move him if the return is decent, and especially if it improves the defense.

This. You can't just look at replacing JvR's scoring, but the overall impact of moving him. I'm fairly confident the Leafs have a guy internally that can score ~20 instead of JvR's ~30, but while also being better defensively and improving other areas of the team - and that could very easily put the team in a better position moving forward.

Good points all.  And I would personally focus on getting Kapanen in the line-up.  I don't quite get the focus on Leivo.  He looks like a classic tweener to me.

 

[Chris]

Yeah, I think not only is Kapanen better than Leivo right now, he has a higher ceiling. That said, I don't think we really know what Leivo could do with more ice time higher in the lineup. Maybe his limitations are evident to the coaching staff (via practice) but he doesn't look bad when he's in the lineup, especially considering his linemates.

 

[herman]

https://theathletic.com/206841/2018/01/09/mirtle-travis-dermott-could-and-probably-should-change-the-maple-leafs-trade-deadline-plans/

You don't really need to read the article (i.e. have a subscription) to discuss this: What if Dermott is good enough that we don't need to force a trade (i.e. overpay) at the deadline for a defenseman?

The TSN intermission crew mentioned something similar to this last night: isn't keeping JvR basically our deadline rental purchase?

From a managerial perspective, I personally prefer internal options where possible (sunk costs) and only dipping into UFA for either the premiere players (core pieces, in their prime) or sneaky useful barrel scrapings (overlooked analytics options for pump and dump, a la Winnik). What I hate to see are middling/declining players getting paid UFA money by us on an open bid. So the above two scenarios tickles my fancy a bit.

I'd be happy to shed Komarov, Bozak + stalled prospects for picks and things for a middle-6 centre to free up contract room, add to the pick pool, and replace Bozak. Keeping Bozak for the final stretch is also an option, mostly because I don't know who is available to replace him. If there's some way to pry Marcus Johansson or Mikael Backlund free, I'd be very open to it.

 

[AvroArrow]

I'd still try to bring in a de Hann / Pysyk / Petrovic player.

My understanding is that Petrovic isn't having a good year in Florida and has been scratched some games... Seems like a good buy low candidate.  Leivo + pick/prospect?

 

[ZBBM]

https://theathletic.com/206841/2018/01/09/mirtle-travis-dermott-could-and-probably-should-change-the-maple-leafs-trade-deadline-plans/

You don't really need to read the article (i.e. have a subscription) to discuss this: What if Dermott is good enough that we don't need to force a trade (i.e. overpay) at the deadline for a defenseman?

The TSN intermission crew mentioned something similar to this last night: isn't keeping JvR basically our deadline rental purchase?

From a managerial perspective, I personally prefer internal options where possible (sunk costs) and only dipping into UFA for either the premiere players (core pieces, in their prime) or sneaky useful barrel scrapings (overlooked analytics options for pump and dump, a la Winnik). What I hate to see are middling/declining players getting paid UFA money by us on an open bid. So the above two scenarios tickles my fancy a bit.

I'd be happy to shed Komarov, Bozak + stalled prospects for picks and things for a middle-6 centre to free up contract room, add to the pick pool, and replace Bozak. Keeping Bozak for the final stretch is also an option, mostly because I don't know who is available to replace him. If there's some way to pry Marcus Johansson or Mikael Backlund free, I'd be very open to it.

Well, he's two games in so maybe all such speculation is just a wee bit premature.

 

[dappleganger]

This link comes from the future. Weird.

http://www.breakingnews365.net/594894ce9255b/toronto-maple-leafs-have-traded-d-jake-gardiner-to-the-chicago-blackhawks-for-d-brent-seabrook.html