Unofficial 2012/2013 Armchair GM

[Kin]

FORWARDS
James Van Riemsdyk ($4.250m) / Ryan Getzlaf ($7.000m) / Phil Kessel ($5.400m)
Joffrey Lupul ($5.250m) / Mikhail Grabovski ($5.500m) / Nikolai Kulemin ($2.800m)
Nazem Kadri ($3.500m) / Tyler Bozak ($3.500m) / Matt Frattin ($0.925m)
Leo Komarov ($0.803m) / Jay McClement ($1.500m) / Mike Brown ($0.737m)
Frazer McLaren ($0.696m) / Colton Orr ($0.800m)
DEFENSEMEN
Carl Gunnarsson ($1.250m) / Dion Phaneuf ($6.500m)
Jake Gardiner ($1.117m) / Korbinian Holzer ($0.633m)
Mark Fraser ($0.660m) / Cody Franson ($1.200m)
Mike Kostka ($0.600m) /
GOALTENDERS
James Reimer ($1.800m)
Ben Scrivens ($0.613m)
OTHER
Buyout: Darcy Tucker ($1.000m)
Buyout: Colby Armstrong ($1.000m)
RETAINED SALARY TRANSACTIONS (0.130% of upper limit)
Mike Komisarek ($0.045m?1.0%) John-Michael Liles ($0.039m?1.0%)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $60,616,083; BONUSES: $300,000
CAP SPACE (25-man roster): $3,983,917

I like that team quite a bit, although I'm not sure I'd keep Bozak around at that price, but I worry that they'd have an awfully short window. Five key guys there(Kessel, Gardiner, Reimer, Phaneuf, Gunnar) are going to need to be re-signed soon and only one, Phaneuf, isn't likely to be looking at a substantial raise.

 

[Kin]

I highly doubt a player who has 46 pts in his last 85 GP will go for anything close to a 1st rounder.

And yet, Gaustad, who had 48 points in his previous ~140 games got just that last season. 1st rounders from teams that know that pick is going to be 20th or lower are less valuable as trade commodities than people make them out to be.

EDIT: Just some examples of guys who have been traded for 1st round picks in recent years:

Paul Gaustad
Kyle Quincey
Troy Brouwer
David Rundblad
An almost retired Adam Foote
Steve Eminger
Shane O'Brien
Craig Rivet

That's all true but I can't help but think that with the nature of the compressed season and the supposed quality of this years draft that 1st rounders are going to be slightly harder to come by than usual.

 

[princedpw]

I agree that there is a high probability that this year's trading deadline will be unusual.  There will be relatively few games to figure out what your team really needs to make a serious playoff push.  I think GMs will be risk-averse in their trades ... But you never know ...

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

I highly doubt a player who has 46 pts in his last 85 GP will go for anything close to a 1st rounder.

And yet, Gaustad, who had 48 points in his previous ~140 games got just that last season. 1st rounders from teams that know that pick is going to be 20th or lower are less valuable as trade commodities than people make them out to be.

EDIT: Just some examples of guys who have been traded for 1st round picks in recent years:

Paul Gaustad
Kyle Quincey
Troy Brouwer
David Rundblad
An almost retired Adam Foote
Steve Eminger
Shane O'Brien
Craig Rivet

That's all true but I can't help but think that with the nature of the compressed season and the supposed quality of this years draft that 1st rounders are going to be slightly harder to come by than usual.

Hasn't it also be suggested that this year's draft is going to be top-heavy, but not as deep as had been thought?  Either way, I'd argue that the inevitable really high number of buyers and really low number of sellers at the trade deadline will make for a significant seller's market this year.

 

[bustaheims]

That's all true but I can't help but think that with the nature of the compressed season and the supposed quality of this years draft that 1st rounders are going to be slightly harder to come by than usual.

The more recent reports see this year's draft as not actually being as deep as it was once thought. The very top of the draft is still seen as very good, but, once we get down to the back half of the 1st round and so on, most recent reports have it as not being significantly better than other drafts.

 

[Kin]

Hasn't it also be suggested that this year's draft is going to be top-heavy, but not as deep as had been thought?

It might be. I'd thought it was said to be a good draft all-around but to be 100% honest I don't keep all that up on opinion on the matter.

  Either way, I'd argue that the inevitable really high number of buyers and really low number of sellers at the trade deadline will make for a significant seller's market this year.

I just wonder if there will be a lot of buyers. Maybe it's just me but I think a lot of teams, even the ones who are still in it or even think they have a shot to go deep will be fairly cautious about making a significant move based on the 30 or so games before the deadline.

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

I highly doubt a player who has 46 pts in his last 85 GP will go for anything close to a 1st rounder.

And yet, Gaustad, who had 48 points in his previous ~140 games got just that last season. 1st rounders from teams that know that pick is going to be 20th or lower are less valuable as trade commodities than people make them out to be.

I think that situation is somewhat different than what we're likely to see on a normal basis.

Nashville was going for it last year, as they were uncertain what would happen with Suter and Weber and were finally in the playoffs.

How many other teams over the last 3-4 years have been so cavalier with the trading of a 1st? I can't think of many and there's a reason why.

The draft this year is supposed to be pretty deep. I'm pretty certain MacArthur won't garner a 1st.

EDIT:

Just saw your list (Busta). To be honest, some of those names surprise me. It seems that the majority are D-men so it's hard to draw a conclusion value-wise. Mac is 1 and a half seasons removed from success and has pretty bad numbers this year.

Don't get me wrong, I'd be thrilled with a first (even a late one), as we'd get a pick, shed $3M + in salary, and probably get better/same production out of his replacement (whether it's Lupul/JVR/Kulemin/Frattin or another player form the Marlies). I just don't think we'll see it happen.

 

[bustaheims]

The draft this year is supposed to be pretty deep. I'm pretty certain MacArthur won't garner a 1st.

The scouts are now saying that this year's draft isn't as deep as it was thought to be, and, outside of the top end of it, it's not particularly better than the average draft. And, if guys like Kyle Quincey and Troy Brouwer can return 1st round picks, then there's no reason MacArthur can't as well.

Just saw your list (Busta). To be honest, some of those names surprise me. It seems that the majority are D-men so it's hard to draw a conclusion value-wise. Mac is 1 and a half seasons removed from success and has pretty bad numbers this year.

All it takes is a couple teams to think he can add good value to their playoff run, and his value jumps. I mean, look at someone like Brouwer. It MacArthur shows any signs of life - even if it doesn't translate on to the stats sheet - getting a 1st for him wouldn't be at all inconceivable. As for the list, I also didn't include some guys that went in more complicated deals, but, there were 1st round picks involved in deals for players that I wouldn't put on the same level as what people expect a 1st round pick to return.

Once you get into the back half of the 1st round, those picks just don't hold as much value as we as fans expect them to.

 

[Jalili]

The point about the shortened season is a good one.

If that's the case the currency for deadline pickups might shift from 1sts to prospects.

But I don't think anyone's going to give up a 1st for MacArthur, which is just my gut instinct. I wonder though if we could swing a deal of MacArthur for one of Pittsburgh's D prospects.

 

[L K]

The point about the shortened season is a good one.

If that's the case the currency for deadline pickups might shift from 1sts to prospects.

But I don't think anyone's going to give up a 1st for MacArthur, which is just my gut instinct. I wonder though if we could swing a deal of MacArthur for one of Pittsburgh's D prospects.

Really wouldn't mind having either one of Harrington or Maatta.

 

[Britishbulldog]

FORWARDS
James Van Riemsdyk ($4.250m) / Ryan Getzlaf ($7.000m) / Phil Kessel ($5.400m)
Joffrey Lupul ($5.250m) / Mikhail Grabovski ($5.500m) / Nikolai Kulemin ($2.800m)
Nazem Kadri ($3.500m) / Tyler Bozak ($3.500m) / Matt Frattin ($0.925m)
Leo Komarov ($0.803m) / Jay McClement ($1.500m) / Mike Brown ($0.737m)
Frazer McLaren ($0.696m) / Colton Orr ($0.800m)
DEFENSEMEN
Carl Gunnarsson ($1.250m) / Dion Phaneuf ($6.500m)
Jake Gardiner ($1.117m) / Korbinian Holzer ($0.633m)
Mark Fraser ($0.660m) / Cody Franson ($1.200m)
Mike Kostka ($0.600m) /
GOALTENDERS
James Reimer ($1.800m)
Ben Scrivens ($0.613m)
OTHER
Buyout: Darcy Tucker ($1.000m)
Buyout: Colby Armstrong ($1.000m)
RETAINED SALARY TRANSACTIONS (0.130% of upper limit)
Mike Komisarek ($0.045m?1.0%) John-Michael Liles ($0.039m?1.0%)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $60,616,083; BONUSES: $300,000
CAP SPACE (25-man roster): $3,983,917

I like that team quite a bit, although I'm not sure I'd keep Bozak around at that price, but I worry that they'd have an awfully short window. Five key guys there(Kessel, Gardiner, Reimer, Phaneuf, Gunnar) are going to need to be re-signed soon and only one, Phaneuf, isn't likely to be looking at a substantial raise.

This summer the Leafs need to deal with Gunnarsson, Kadri and Bozak with a $64.3 cap limit.

Gunnarsson I am hoping can come in around $2.0 MIL or less for 2 years.

I figure that both Kadri and Bozak will be getting contracts similar to Matt Duchene and Kyle Turris who both signed $3.5 MIL deals and are comparable players.  Anything less I figure is a bonus..  If Bozak can be traded for a good prospect and/or a high draft pick then Kadri can be the 3rd line center next year and a player like Ryan Hamilton can play on the LW for under $1 MIL I am sure.

I am not sure if there is a 5% increase the players can invoke in the new CBA like the previous one but the league was growing at a 7.2% rate anyway.  That means in the summer of 2015 the cap should be around $66 MIL at least which is a growth of 5%. Summer of 2016 the cap should be over $69 MIL.

Next summer has 5 key contracts in my books with a projected cap hit of $64.3 still:
I figure that Reimer will get the $2 MIL that will be freed up from the buyouts which happen the same summer as Reimer's contract ending.

Kessel I hope won't get more than $6 MIL on a long term contract but I am probably a bit delusional on that one.

If Gardiner does effectively replace Liles I could see Gardiner get a 5 year contract like Liles of $3.9 MIL.

Phaneuf should stay status quo I expect.

You missed Frattin though who I expect to get a 2nd contract around $3.25 MIL.

That is a payroll increase of $6 MIL with $4 MIL available summer of 2014 unless Bozak is moved as well.

So trade bait: Liles, MacArthur and maybe Bozak?

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

FORWARDS
James Van Riemsdyk ($4.250m) / Ryan Getzlaf ($7.000m) / Phil Kessel ($5.400m)
Joffrey Lupul ($5.250m) / Mikhail Grabovski ($5.500m) / Nikolai Kulemin ($2.800m)
Nazem Kadri ($3.500m) / Tyler Bozak ($3.500m) / Matt Frattin ($0.925m)
Leo Komarov ($0.803m) / Jay McClement ($1.500m) / Mike Brown ($0.737m)
Frazer McLaren ($0.696m) / Colton Orr ($0.800m)
DEFENSEMEN
Carl Gunnarsson ($1.250m) / Dion Phaneuf ($6.500m)
Jake Gardiner ($1.117m) / Korbinian Holzer ($0.633m)
Mark Fraser ($0.660m) / Cody Franson ($1.200m)
Mike Kostka ($0.600m) /
GOALTENDERS
James Reimer ($1.800m)
Ben Scrivens ($0.613m)
OTHER
Buyout: Darcy Tucker ($1.000m)
Buyout: Colby Armstrong ($1.000m)
RETAINED SALARY TRANSACTIONS (0.130% of upper limit)
Mike Komisarek ($0.045m?1.0%) John-Michael Liles ($0.039m?1.0%)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $60,616,083; BONUSES: $300,000
CAP SPACE (25-man roster): $3,983,917

I like that team quite a bit, although I'm not sure I'd keep Bozak around at that price, but I worry that they'd have an awfully short window. Five key guys there(Kessel, Gardiner, Reimer, Phaneuf, Gunnar) are going to need to be re-signed soon and only one, Phaneuf, isn't likely to be looking at a substantial raise.

This summer the Leafs need to deal with Gunnarsson, Kadri and Bozak with a $64.3 cap limit.

Gunnarsson I am hoping can come in around $2.0 MIL or less for 2 years.

I figure that both Kadri and Bozak will be getting contracts similar to Matt Duchene and Kyle Turris who both signed $3.5 MIL deals and are comparable players.  Anything less I figure is a bonus..  If Bozak can be traded for a good prospect and/or a high draft pick then Kadri can be the 3rd line center next year and a player like Ryan Hamilton can play on the LW for under $1 MIL I am sure.

I am not sure if there is a 5% increase the players can invoke in the new CBA like the previous one but the league was growing at a 7.2% rate anyway.  That means in the summer of 2015 the cap should be around $66 MIL at least which is a growth of 5%. Summer of 2016 the cap should be over $69 MIL.

Next summer has 5 key contracts in my books with a projected cap hit of $64.3 still:
I figure that Reimer will get the $2 MIL that will be freed up from the buyouts which happen the same summer as Reimer's contract ending.

Kessel I hope won't get more than $6 MIL on a long term contract but I am probably a bit delusional on that one.

If Gardiner does effectively replace Liles I could see Gardiner get a 5 year contract like Liles of $3.9 MIL.

Phaneuf should stay status quo I expect.

You missed Frattin though who I expect to get a 2nd contract around $3.25 MIL.

That is a payroll increase of $6 MIL with $4 MIL available summer of 2014 unless Bozak is moved as well.

So trade bait: Liles, MacArthur and maybe Bozak?

Agree with most of what you wrote. Not sure about moving Bozak. Would love to move Liles and Mac.

I also don't think Gardiner gets anywhere near 3.9M on his next contract. He's had one good season and now has health concerns. Subban and Del Zotto have larger track records (better as well) and are on less lucrative contracts.

Also don't think Kadri or Frattin see the kind of coin you mentioned. Frattin didn't even make the team this year out of camp and now has recurring knee issues. Kadri is having a great start to a season but that's really just one year.

Keep in mind that Kulemin got  ~ 2M after a season of 30 G and 57 pts. I think Kadri and Frattin get a similar contract if they put up similar numbers. If Frattin keeps up a ridiculous goal scoring pace or Kadri is a PPG player then maybe they see a contract between 3.5-4M but I think that's somewhat unlikely (Frattin returning from injury and Kadri playing on the 4th line the last game....).

 

[Britishbulldog]

Agree with most of what you wrote. Not sure about moving Bozak. Would love to move Liles and Mac.

I also don't think Gardiner gets anywhere near 3.9M on his next contract. He's had one good season and now has health concerns. Subban and Del Zotto have larger track records (better as well) and are on less lucrative contracts.

Also don't think Kadri or Frattin see the kind of coin you mentioned. Frattin didn't even make the team this year out of camp and now has recurring knee issues. Kadri is having a great start to a season but that's really just one year.

Keep in mind that Kulemin got  ~ 2M after a season of 30 G and 57 pts. I think Kadri and Frattin get a similar contract if they put up similar numbers. If Frattin keeps up a ridiculous goal scoring pace or Kadri is a PPG player then maybe they see a contract between 3.5-4M but I think that's somewhat unlikely (Frattin returning from injury and Kadri playing on the 4th line the last game....).

Well, if Frattin and Kadri get similar contracts to the $2.35 MIL 2 - 3 years that Kulemin got coming of his ELC and Gardiner gets Del Zotto money at most coming of of their ELCs 2 or 3 years @ $2.5 MIL per then the Leafs might be alright.

I really would like to keep Bozak as well.  Playing with Kadri and Frattin would create a really good 3rd line.

When some of the contracts are up summer of 2015 there will be an extra $2 - $3 MIL cap room to play with.  I just hope that once the Leafs get competitive again the team isn't dismantled due to mismanagement of cap space.

Sooooo....Fall of 2015??

FORWARDS
James Van Riemsdyk ($4.250m) / Ryan Getzlaf ($7.000m) / Phil Kessel ($5.400m)
Joffrey Lupul ($5.250m) / Mikhail Grabovski ($5.500m) / Nikolai Kulemin ($2.800m)
Nazem Kadri ($2.350m) / Tyler Bozak ($3.500m) / Matt Frattin ($2.350m)
Leo Komarov ($0.803m) / Jay McClement ($1.500m) / Mike Brown ($0.737m)
Frazer McLaren ($0.696m) / Colton Orr ($0.800m)
DEFENSEMEN
Carl Gunnarsson ($1.800m) / Dion Phaneuf ($6.500m)
Jake Gardiner ($2.500m) / Korbinian Holzer ($1.325m)
Mark Fraser ($0.660m) / Cody Franson ($1.800m)
Mike Kostka ($0.600m) /
GOALTENDERS
James Reimer ($3.500m)
Ben Scrivens ($1.500m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $66,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $63,225,000; BONUSES: $0
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $3,075,000

Obviously the press box boys are place holders.

 

[Bullfrog]

That looks like a very good team to me, but it's still missing a marquee, go-to defenseman.

 

[Kin]

That looks like a very good team to me, but it's still missing a marquee, go-to defenseman.

I agree but if it is the fall of 2015 then Rielly will be 21 and almost certainly on the team. He might not be that either but he's probably the best shot the Leafs have at that. Percy, Biggs and others are going to be in the mix as well.

 

[Champ Kind]

I also think that as long as Carlyle is at the helm you are going to see tough, somewhat uni-dimensional player sin the lineup.  The commitment RC has shown Orr is remarkable.  He obviously likes to have at least 2 forwards who can really fight.  So, for me, when you think about a Randy Carlyle lineup you need to consider this as part of the fabric.

 

[Corn Flake]

I also think that as long as Carlyle is at the helm you are going to see tough, somewhat uni-dimensional player sin the lineup.  The commitment RC has shown Orr is remarkable.  He obviously likes to have at least 2 forwards who can really fight.  So, for me, when you think about a Randy Carlyle lineup you need to consider this as part of the fabric.

He has 3 guys who fight, another 2-3 who will if required.... and well, it's all working pretty well right now. 

 

[louisstamos]

The fact that Kadri, Gunnarsson, Franson, Fraser and Holzer are all RFAs this summer scares me - you have to think all of them will deserve a raise if they keep playing the way they are...

 

[Zee]

The fact that Kadri, Gunnarsson, Franson, Fraser and Holzer are all RFAs this summer scares me - you have to think all of them will deserve a raise if they keep playing the way they are...

Sure they deserve a raise but none of them will be paid insane money given the amount of experience and what they've accomplished so far.  Having the RFA trump card is good, look at how the Habs kept PK Subban in line.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

The fact that Kadri, Gunnarsson, Franson, Fraser and Holzer are all RFAs this summer scares me - you have to think all of them will deserve a raise if they keep playing the way they are...

Sure they deserve a raise but none of them will be paid insane money given the amount of experience and what they've accomplished so far.  Having the RFA trump card is good, look at how the Habs kept PK Subban in line.

Franson and Gunnarsson probably do a bit better, but I have to agree, the Leafs will hold firm on RFA's I think. The most interesting one will probably be Kadri.