Unofficial 2012/2013 Armchair GM
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Kin
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Britishbulldog said:
That strikes me as a bit of an exaggeration. How many first line centres are there around the league who signed UFA contracts at 5.5 million and didn't get 8 or 10 years. The reality is that the cost of a first line centre on the UFA market is going to be 7 million or more on a short term deal. Grabo's contract is that of a second line guy or, at best, a first line guy in the mold of a Stephen Weiss.
Champ Kind
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Nik Gida said:
I think it would be also fair to say that Grabovski was able to capitalize on a rather unique situation. A year ago, the Leafs were just into their tailspin, though the thought of grabbing the 8'th playoff spot still looked hopeful. Burke had a decision to make: trade the impending free agent or keep him and make a run for the playoffs. I think it's fair to say Burke did not want to lose Grabo for nothing in the summer. Enter the $5.5M x 5 year deal.
The deal seemed a bit excessive at the time. But now, retorspectively, it appears worse, especially with the emergence of Kadri and Bozak proving that he is a legit second or third line centre. Let's face it, Grabovski is good, but he's not among the top second line centres, though he is paid like one. I'm also sure that he'll regain his offensive touch, but what's concerned me lately is that he doesn't seem to be generating many chances (unlike, say, Kessel).
Bottom line: I really like the player but I don't like the deal. Having the man who signed the deal no longer around also makes the idea of paying out a large sum a bit more palatable, I'd say. If, and it's a big if, Getzlaf or Perry are available this summer, I think the Leafs need to buy out Grabo. If not, you give him another year and assess things again in the summer of 2014.
bustaheims
Active member
Zee said:
Context becomes pretty important here. Plekanec signed his deal 2 seasons before Grabovski did - meaning the cap was lower, so, the $5M he signed for actually represented a greater percentage of the cap at the time than Grabovski's $5.5M. And while he pay do more, he doesn't produce significantly more, and, as much as we like to think contract values are based on overall play, offensive production is still the largest factor in how they're determined. In the 2 seasons leading to Grabovski's extension, the two players had identical point production in similar games played (Grabovski played 3 less games in that span), while Grabovski scored 13 more goals. When it came time for negotiations, Plekanec actually represented a pretty good comparable for Grabovski.
Kin
New member
Champ Kind said:
I don't know if that is fair to say. In the two seasons before this one Grabo, among players listed as centers at NHL.com, finished 22nd and 31st in scoring, 10th and 21st in goals scored.
I think it's pretty safe to say that not many teams had a 2nd centre who ranked quite so highly in those categories.
Champ Kind said:
That may be something of a situational thing though. Right now Kessel has 11 points and Grabo has 6 but Grabs has been doing it with less talented linemates who are also struggling as well as having less than half the PP time that Kessel has.
Britishbulldog
Active member
Andy007 said:
I don't quite see it the same way. I see that he took less money when the cap limit was higher to only play for a 4 year contract not a 6 year contract. If the Leafs develop Rielly like Kadri then Rielly will be ready when Liles contract is up. For those 2 reasons I thought that it was a perfect contract for a player rumoured to be the next captain of the Avalanche.
Also, in my mind, Liles skill set is more like Kaberle's was which has on offensive upside. If Liles comes out of the Leafs line up the only other guys he would be blocking my mind would be Gardiner or Franson who have similar offensive upside and haven't cemented themselves in the Leafs line up. My druthers would be have Liles, Gardiner and Franson all in the line up paired with Phaneuf, Holzer and Fraser.
Britishbulldog
Active member
Zee said:
My point that I (like an old dog) slobber down on and won't let go of ...yet...is that I work with numbers a lot and with the 2nd line center making $5.5 MIL, and 3 of the top 6 wingers making $5.4, $5.25 and $4.25 MIL there is only around $4.5 MIL available to pay the 1st line center...which is obviously less then the 2nd line center.
Bozak should probably be able to be re-signed this summer for $3.5 MIL, I am hoping that Kadri will sign a 2nd contract for around 2 years @ $2.5 MIL as the Leafs 2nd and 3rd line centers.
Same as Lupul has to play as a 1st line winger now that he is tying up over $5 MIL a year or he blocks the Leafs ability to sign a better 1st line winger, Grabovski has the same issue for the Leafs.
What makes more sense, trying to get to the next level in the NHL while not being able to get a top 1st line center because of cap restraints, trading Grabovski and keeping a % of his salary for 4 more years which will go against the cap like a buyout for until 2017 *** OR *** buying Grabovski out in the summer if Nonis can land Getzlaf. If Grabovski is bought out with one of the amnesty buy outs and Komisarek is bought out with the other amnesty buy out then Nonis could offer Getzlaf even $8 MIL a year for 7 years and still have almost $4 MIL left in cap space to re-sign Gardiner and Frattin in 2014. (For the record I hope that Getzlaf would sign with the Leafs for $7 MIL for $7 years 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, 5, 4)
My Custom Lineup
FORWARDS
James Van Riemsdyk ($4.250m) / Ryan Getzlaf ($8.000m) / Phil Kessel ($5.400m)
Joffrey Lupul ($5.250m) / Tyler Bozak ($3.500m) / Nikolai Kulemin ($2.800m)
Matt Frattin ($0.925m) / Nazem Kadri ($2.000m) / Clarke MacArthur ($3.250m)
Leo Komarov ($0.803m) / Jay McClement ($1.500m) / Mike Brown ($0.737m)
Frazer McLaren ($0.696m) / Colton Orr ($0.800m)
DEFENSEMEN
Carl Gunnarsson ($1.250m) / Dion Phaneuf ($6.500m)
John-Michael Liles ($3.875m) / Korbinian Holzer ($0.633m)
Mark Fraser ($0.660m) / Cody Franson ($1.200m)
Mike Kostka ($0.600m) /
GOALTENDERS
James Reimer ($1.800m)
Ben Scrivens ($0.613m)
OTHER
Buyout: Darcy Tucker ($1.000m)
Buyout: Colby Armstrong ($1.000m)
RETAINED SALARY TRANSACTIONS (0.156% of upper limit)
Mikhail Grabovski ($0.055m?1.0%) Mike Komisarek ($0.045m?1.0%)
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CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $60,640,667; BONUSES: $0
CAP SPACE (25-man roster): $3,659,333
moon111
New member
My list of player's I'd keep v.s. player's I'd be willing to move.
(Doesn't reflect player 'value' but how well I think they do their job and how well they fit on the club. If someone wants to trade a decent 1st line center for Gunnarsson, he's gone.)
(Doesn't reflect player 'value' but how well I think they do their job and how well they fit on the club. If someone wants to trade a decent 1st line center for Gunnarsson, he's gone.)
| KEEPS | TRADE BAIT |
| Gunnarsson | MacArthur |
| JVR | Kulemin |
| McClement | Hamilton |
| Gardiner | Komisarek |
| Reimer | Liles |
| Kadri | Phaneuf |
| Scrivens | McLaren |
| Lupul | Fraser |
| Franson | Orr |
| Grabovski | Holzer |
| Frattin | Steckel |
| Kessel | Brown |
| Komarov | Kostka |
| Bozak |
Kin
New member
Britishbulldog said:
Except that's obviously not the case. If you look at your line-up you can put the exact same team together with Grabo and with 8 million or more for a first line centre simply by virtue of trading one of MacArthur, Kulemin or Liles or not signing Bozak.
The problem isn't Grabo's contract, unless you're valuing him less than those guys I mentioned. But especially considering that Gardiner and potentially Rielly could be on the blue line next year I think Liles is the odd-man out there, not Grabo.
Britishbulldog
Active member
Tigger said:
Nik Gida said:
I believe that Gardiner could replace Liles if Liles is truly the odd man out. MacArthur is also replaceable with current Leafs.
I wonder if Nonis could trade Liles to Nashville or Detroit for their 1st pick?
MacArthur to one of the many teams struggling with scoring for their 1st pick?
Still almost $4 MIL available with the bonuses and buyouts included.
FORWARDS
James Van Riemsdyk ($4.250m) / Ryan Getzlaf ($7.000m) / Phil Kessel ($5.400m)
Joffrey Lupul ($5.250m) / Mikhail Grabovski ($5.500m) / Nikolai Kulemin ($2.800m)
Nazem Kadri ($3.500m) / Tyler Bozak ($3.500m) / Matt Frattin ($0.925m)
Leo Komarov ($0.803m) / Jay McClement ($1.500m) / Mike Brown ($0.737m)
Frazer McLaren ($0.696m) / Colton Orr ($0.800m)
DEFENSEMEN
Carl Gunnarsson ($1.250m) / Dion Phaneuf ($6.500m)
Jake Gardiner ($1.117m) / Korbinian Holzer ($0.633m)
Mark Fraser ($0.660m) / Cody Franson ($1.200m)
Mike Kostka ($0.600m) /
GOALTENDERS
James Reimer ($1.800m)
Ben Scrivens ($0.613m)
OTHER
Buyout: Darcy Tucker ($1.000m)
Buyout: Colby Armstrong ($1.000m)
RETAINED SALARY TRANSACTIONS (0.130% of upper limit)
Mike Komisarek ($0.045m?1.0%) John-Michael Liles ($0.039m?1.0%)
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CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $60,616,083; BONUSES: $300,000
CAP SPACE (25-man roster): $3,983,917
Chev-boyar-sky
New member
I highly doubt a player who has 46 pts in his last 85 GP will go for anything close to a 1st rounder.
Liles to Detroit or Nashville (Nash will be less likely to move their 1st for cost effective reasons) is a lot more plausible, though I'd guess his price would be more like a 2nd and a pretty good prospect.
Liles to Detroit or Nashville (Nash will be less likely to move their 1st for cost effective reasons) is a lot more plausible, though I'd guess his price would be more like a 2nd and a pretty good prospect.
bustaheims
Active member
Chev-boyar-sky said:
And yet, Gaustad, who had 48 points in his previous ~140 games got just that last season. 1st rounders from teams that know that pick is going to be 20th or lower are less valuable as trade commodities than people make them out to be.
EDIT: Just some examples of guys who have been traded for 1st round picks in recent years:
Paul Gaustad
Kyle Quincey
Troy Brouwer
David Rundblad
An almost retired Adam Foote
Steve Eminger
Shane O'Brien
Craig Rivet
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