Unofficial 2013-2014 Armchair GM Thread

[Britishbulldog]

Apologies for a very stream-of-consciousness post:

I'd like to ask one of the other not-so-lazy members of the board:  Could you do a realistic cap-space analysis for me to see where we stand?  Estimate new salaries for our many RFAs like Kadri, Franson, Gunnar, Bernier, Fraser,  etc. 

If we were to lose Bozak, MacAthur, Frattin, Komorov, that is a lot of wingers/forwards out the door.  How can we replace them?

Given that we've lost Frattin and Komorov for sure, we need some help up front. 

Could we bring back Mac (Do you think he wants more than $3.5?) and fit Weiss ($5.5?) under the cap?

I must say I'm also wondering about Stastny.  Apparently, Colorado isn't taking Jones with their top pick, meaning they may well be taking McKinnon (or at the very least, another forward):

http://www.denverpost.com/avalanche/ci_23520384/joe-sakic-isnt-bluffing-about-colorado-avalanches-draft

With Duchene, O'Reilly and McKinnon on board, Stastny seems like an expensive 4th? line center.  Of course, they could play a couple of those guys at wing.

Unlike most years, there aren't too many of the big spenders (Philly, Rangers, Boston, LA, Chicago) who have the cap space to take on a 6.6 million forward.  Toronto's cap space is somewhat tight too but we could manage somehow, I believe (though, again, my laziness dictates that someone else do the legwork).  The time might be right to take advantage like we did with the Phaneuf deal.  Do we have the assets to make the trade though?  Colorado needs defense.  Of course, I'd love to give them Liles + one of our minor league D prospects like Matt Finn or Stuart Percy.  Would that suffice?  (Then sign Kaberle at $600k as a 6-7th depth D man in place of Liles.  May be he can pick it back up in Toronto... He's only 35 and he's not one of those big lugs who can't skate.)

CAPGEEK.COM USER GENERATED ROSTER
My Custom Lineup

FORWARDS
James Van Riemsdyk ($4.250m) / Mikhail Grabovski ($5.500m) / Phil Kessel ($5.400m)
Joffrey Lupul ($5.250m) / Nazem Kadri ($3.500m) / Nikolai Kulemin ($2.800m)
Clarke MacArthur ($3.250m) / Joe Colborne ($0.900m) / David Clarkson ($3.750m)
Frazer McLaren ($0.700m) / Jay McClement ($1.500m) / Colton Orr ($0.925m)

Ryan Hamilton ($0.600m)

DEFENSEMEN
Dion Phaneuf ($6.500m) / Carl Gunnarsson ($2.500m)
Jake Gardiner ($1.117m) / John-Michael Liles ($3.875m)
Mark Fraser ($0.800m) / Cody Franson ($3.000m)
Tomas Kaberle ($0.700m) /

GOALTENDERS
James Reimer ($1.800m)
Jonathan Bernier ($2.500m)

OTHER
Buyout: Darcy Tucker ($1.000m)
Buyout: Colby Armstrong ($1.000m)
RETAINED SALARY TRANSACTIONS (0.778% of upper limit)
Matt Frattin ($0.437m?0.5%) Ben Scrivens ($0.062m?0.1%)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $63,616,667; BONUSES: $300,000
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $983,333

- Kadri is expected to sign for $2.75 MIL but I put him at the star level of Duchene's $3.5 (who Kadri is DEFINITELY not):  + $0.75 MIL

- Clarkson is expected to sign between $3.75 and $4.5 MIL so I went a bit low on him but if he signs for more than $4 MIL then I hope it is with another team and the Leafs go after Chris Stewart whom the Blues have been rumoured to have to move due to budget restraints.  - $0.25 MIL

- MacArthur or Clowe should be able to signed for $3.25 - $3.5 MIL: -$0.25 MIL

- Franson was expected to re-sign for around $2.75 but after the playoffs I expect that he will be signing for $3 MIL

- Bernier is expected to re-sign for around $1.8 MIL (like Reimer's contract): + $0.7 MIL

Sooo....there might be another $1 MIL available. Trading for Stastny would mean financially moving either Grabovski, Lupul, Kessel or Phaneuf.

 

[princedpw]

Thanks Bulldog!

 

[Champ Kind]

Sooo with this Bernier thing coming true, does this mean we can't make fun of Kypreos anymore?

Well, if we can't, it's not like there is a shortage of other blowhards to focus on.

 

[Corn Flake]

Sooo with this Bernier thing coming true, does this mean we can't make fun of Kypreos anymore?

Well, if we can't, it's not like there is a shortage of other blowhards to focus on.

Tis very true. The list is very very long.

 

[KoHo]

Sooo with this Bernier thing coming true, does this mean we can't make fun of Kypreos anymore?

Howard Berger of all people tweeted that Frattin was involved in a Bernier deal a full 24 hours before it happened.

 

[Deebo]

Sooo with this Bernier thing coming true, does this mean we can't make fun of Kypreos anymore?

Howard Berger of all people tweeted that Frattin was involved in a Bernier deal a full 24 hours before it happened.

That was out there for quite some time.

 

[mr grieves]

CAPGEEK.COM USER GENERATED ROSTER
My Custom Lineup

FORWARDS
James Van Riemsdyk ($4.250m) / Mikhail Grabovski ($5.500m) / Phil Kessel ($5.400m)
Joffrey Lupul ($5.250m) / Nazem Kadri ($3.500m) / Nikolai Kulemin ($2.800m)
Clarke MacArthur ($3.250m) / Joe Colborne ($0.900m) / David Clarkson ($3.750m)
Frazer McLaren ($0.700m) / Jay McClement ($1.500m) / Colton Orr ($0.925m)

Ryan Hamilton ($0.600m)

DEFENSEMEN
Dion Phaneuf ($6.500m) / Carl Gunnarsson ($2.500m)
Jake Gardiner ($1.117m) / John-Michael Liles ($3.875m)
Mark Fraser ($0.800m) / Cody Franson ($3.000m)
Tomas Kaberle ($0.700m) /

GOALTENDERS
James Reimer ($1.800m)
Jonathan Bernier ($2.500m)

OTHER
Buyout: Darcy Tucker ($1.000m)
Buyout: Colby Armstrong ($1.000m)
RETAINED SALARY TRANSACTIONS (0.778% of upper limit)
Matt Frattin ($0.437m?0.5%) Ben Scrivens ($0.062m?0.1%)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $63,616,667; BONUSES: $300,000
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $983,333

Kabs for $700k would be the sort of scenario in which I'd not mind a sentimental favorite being brought back. He doesn't look much worse than JML for 1/5th-1/3rd of the cost.

Sooo....there might be another $1 MIL available. Trading for Stastny would mean financially moving either Grabovski, Lupul, Kessel or Phaneuf.

I always thought that you'd probably have to trade Franson to get Stastny, so that would add another ~$3m in space, which would still leave you ~$2.5m over the cap.

Of course, if you're parting with the most overvalued sort of defenseman who is developed, nearing his prime, and on a price-controlled controlled contract for a maybe-#1C that you could sign as a UFA next summer -- so a rental try-out and with signing rights -- you'd like to think the Avs could be induced to retain a good chunk of the salary.

I really would really like to see Stastny playing with Kessel and JVR. But, with Grabbo and Kadri around, acquiring him would create a variation on the Bozak problem -- a $5.5m salary on the third line, trying to produce points alongside Kuli and McClement -- which would make that contract impossible to move.

I think the next season would probably be better spent seeing how Grabbo & Kadri handle top-2 center minutes. Best case Grabbo proves last season a fluke and himself part of the core. Worst case you know the buy-out is the only way to lose the contract. Most likely case he shows himself a very good top-6 center on a decent contact, who can be moved if an upgrade is found.

Replenishing the stock of wingers who can move between the fourth and second lines -- Komarov, Frattin, MacA -- seems the most pressing need up front presently.

 

[AvroArrow]

I'm bored and decided to check the list of UFA's on cap geek that caught my eye (primarily at or under 30).  There's some interesting options.  Hopefully this can generate some discussion.

Player	Position	Age	Cap	Games	Goals	Assists	Points	Potential	Notes
Mike Ribeiro	C	33	5M	48	13	36	49	60-80 pt 1st line C	most expensive, potentially lacking faceoffs and D skills
Derek Roy	C	30	4M	42	7	21	28	60-80 pt 1st line center	Potentially starting a decline?
Ryane Clowe	LW	30	3.625M	40	3	16	19	40-60 pt 2nd/3rd liner	Possibly on the decline?
Valterri Filpula	LW	29	3M	41	9	8	17	40 pt 2nd/3rd liner	allegience to Det?
Ian White	D	29	2.875M	25	2	2	4	4-6 Dman	Terrible season in DET
David Clarkson	RW	29	2.667M	48	15	9	24	40pt 2nd/3rd liner	Looking to cash in?
Mason Raymond	LW	27	2.275M	46	10	12	22	40pt 2nd/3rd liner
Andrew Ference	D	34	2.25M	48	4	9	13	3-6 dman
Boyd Gordon	C	29	1.325M	48	4	10	14	20-40 pt 3rd/4th liner
Brad Boyes	RW	31	1M	48	10	25	35	50-70 pt 1st/2nd liner	Possibly good price/performance, or cash in
Maxim Lapierre	C	28	1M	48	4	6	10	4th line grinder
Victor Stalberg	LW	27	875k	47	9	14	23	25-45 pt 2nd/3rd liner	Gonna command a raise

*information obtained from capgeek.com
*CAP is 2012/2013 value

 

[Kin]

I really like the idea of Stalberg coming back provided it can be done at a MacArthur-like price. Some offensive upside, a ton of speed and a guy who sort of fits into the sort of top 9 philosophy the team seems to be favouring.

 

[AvroArrow]

Current committed lineup:

JVR - xxx - Kessel
Lupul - (Kadri) - xxx
xxx - Grabovski - Kulemin
(McLaren) - McClement - Orr
[Colborne]

(Gunnarsson) - Phaneuf
Gardiner - (Franson)
JML - (Fraser)

Reimer
(Bernier)

(<name>) = RFA

Openings:
1st line C - Ribeiro, Roy
2nd line RW - Boyes, Clarkson
3rd line LW - Filpula, Raymond, Stalberg

Other thoughts/ideas:
Top 4 D:
-push out JML, move Gunnarsson down, acquire top 4 dman to play alongside Phaneuf
-Ian White, Andrew Ference

3rd line C:
-move out Grabovski, acquire 3rd line C at a better price/performance
-Boyd Gordon (Gordon, McClement, and Colborne could rotate)

 

[bustaheims]

Howard Berger of all people tweeted that Frattin was involved in a Bernier deal a full 24 hours before it happened.

Frattin was expected to be part of any deal the Leafs might make for Bernier back in January. Not exactly insider info.

 

[L K]

I really like the idea of Stalberg coming back provided it can be done at a MacArthur-like price. Some offensive upside, a ton of speed and a guy who sort of fits into the sort of top 9 philosophy the team seems to be favouring.

I guess, but his 3 assists in 18 playoff games is kind of ugly.

 

[KoHo]

Leafs should bring back Timmy Brent. We can sign him on the cheap and he'd be a great 4th liner/13th forward. I'll never forget one of the best moments of the no-playoffs era, simply referred to as The Shift.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-WWEJa17GBk[/youtube]

 

[Jalili]

I really like the idea of Stalberg coming back provided it can be done at a MacArthur-like price. Some offensive upside, a ton of speed and a guy who sort of fits into the sort of top 9 philosophy the team seems to be favouring.

I guess, but his 3 assists in 18 playoff games is kind of ugly.

Stalberg's useful as a big guy who forechecks and is a great skater, but doesn't possess much hockey IQ. As much as he'd be a solid addition to the lineup that really limits his value IMO.

 

[bustaheims]

Stalberg's useful as a big guy who forechecks and is a great skater, but doesn't possess much hockey IQ. As much as he'd be a solid addition to the lineup that really limits his value IMO.

I said it when he was here, and I still believe it now. Stalberg is a faster, Swedish Ponikarovsky that doesn't get credited with as many hits.

 

[Kin]

I really like the idea of Stalberg coming back provided it can be done at a MacArthur-like price. Some offensive upside, a ton of speed and a guy who sort of fits into the sort of top 9 philosophy the team seems to be favouring.

I guess, but his 3 assists in 18 playoff games is kind of ugly.

Stalberg's useful as a big guy who forechecks and is a great skater, but doesn't possess much hockey IQ. As much as he'd be a solid addition to the lineup that really limits his value IMO.

Yeah, but I'm just thinking about replacing departed superstar Matt Frattin, not making like a serious improvement to the top 6.

 

[Jalili]

I really like the idea of Stalberg coming back provided it can be done at a MacArthur-like price. Some offensive upside, a ton of speed and a guy who sort of fits into the sort of top 9 philosophy the team seems to be favouring.

I guess, but his 3 assists in 18 playoff games is kind of ugly.

Stalberg's useful as a big guy who forechecks and is a great skater, but doesn't possess much hockey IQ. As much as he'd be a solid addition to the lineup that really limits his value IMO.

Yeah, but I'm just thinking about replacing departed superstar Matt Frattin, not making like a serious improvement to the top 6.

Based off his playoff performance I'd be more interested in Michael Frolik from the Hawks than Stalberg.

If they're looking to shed salary and move him he'd be a solid 3rd line addition.

 

[mr grieves]

I'm bored and decided to check the list of UFA's on cap geek that caught my eye (primarily at or under 30).  There's some interesting options.  Hopefully this can generate some discussion.

Player	Position	Age	Cap	Games	Goals	Assists	Points	Potential	Notes
Mike Ribeiro	C	33	5M	48	13	36	49	60-80 pt 1st line C	most expensive, potentially lacking faceoffs and D skills
Derek Roy	C	30	4M	42	7	21	28	60-80 pt 1st line center	Potentially starting a decline?
Ryane Clowe	LW	30	3.625M	40	3	16	19	40-60 pt 2nd/3rd liner	Possibly on the decline?
Valterri Filpula	LW	29	3M	41	9	8	17	40 pt 2nd/3rd liner	allegience to Det?
Ian White	D	29	2.875M	25	2	2	4	4-6 Dman	Terrible season in DET
David Clarkson	RW	29	2.667M	48	15	9	24	40pt 2nd/3rd liner	Looking to cash in?
Mason Raymond	LW	27	2.275M	46	10	12	22	40pt 2nd/3rd liner
Andrew Ference	D	34	2.25M	48	4	9	13	3-6 dman
Boyd Gordon	C	29	1.325M	48	4	10	14	20-40 pt 3rd/4th liner
Brad Boyes	RW	31	1M	48	10	25	35	50-70 pt 1st/2nd liner	Possibly good price/performance, or cash in
Maxim Lapierre	C	28	1M	48	4	6	10	4th line grinder
Victor Stalberg	LW	27	875k	47	9	14	23	25-45 pt 2nd/3rd liner	Gonna command a raise

*information obtained from capgeek.com
*CAP is 2012/2013 value

Along these lines (though limited to wingers), HockeyAnalysis has an analysis of 15 NHL regulars:

http://hockeyanalysis.com/2013/06/20/a-look-at-the-top-unrestricted-free-agent-wingers/

Click though for the stats. Here's the upshot:

Overall Evaluation

There is nothing too scientific in this but if I had to rank the wingers in terms of value this is how I would rank them, with probably more emphasis on offensive value.

Iginla ? Perfect for a team close looking for some help over the next couple seasons.
Clarkson ? I am surprised I am ranking Clarkson over Horton but he comes out ahead in more categories and may come cheaper. I?d still be cautious about over paying but he has scored a bunch of goals on a bad offensive team so that is good.
Horton ? I really like Horton but injuries have to be a concern and he?ll likely demand a big contract. He is a first line guy though and would be a big addition to any team. Has a longer track record than Clarkson too so less risky (health issues aside).
MacArthur ? Good all-round winger ideal for a second line role or as a secondary player on a first line.
Elias ? Age is starting to show but still very solid. Probably stays in New Jersey on short term deal.
Stalberg ? Not quite as proven against top competition as MacArthur but similar potential.
Ryder ? All he seems to do is score goals and still can be a 30 goal guy if given top line duty. Less rugged version of Clarkson.
Dupuis ? Likely stick in Pittsburgh and continue benefiting from playing a bunch on Crosby?s wing.
Bickell ? Probably worth taking a gamble on and playing in a second line role. Might be a 20 goal, 50 point guy in that role.
Cooke ? More useful for his PK skills. Decent 3rd line guy but limited offense
Boyes ? Decent offensive depth guy if on a good value contract. Probably re-signs with Islanders as he probably has more value to them than anyone else. Probably gets more (and higher quality) ice time than he deserves.
Cleary ? Not as productive as he was a few years ago but still has some value as a 2nd/3rd line winger.
Clowe ? Probably best as a 3rd line guy you hope you can get some toughness secondary offense from.
Raymond ? From afar he seems like the guy you always hope can be more but never is.
Ponikarovsky ? He kind of like Cooke minus the agitator/cheap shot track record. Solid defensive 3rd liner at this point in his career.

 

[Corn Flake]

I'm starting to lean towards Bryan Bickell over David Clarkson.  Probably cost a fair bit less, but brings even more size and is just a ridiculous competitor.  I think he will be more durable as well.

 

[lamajama]

Not sure if posted elsewhere but the NHL has said that a sign/buy-out/re-sign with original club will not be allowed as it's a "circumvention of the Cap". It was specifically mentioned in respect to the Leafs rumour of
trading for Vinnie Lecavalier, buying him out and having him re-sign with TB.

Yep something the Leafs were finally contemplating apparently is shot down by the NHL. Shocked.