Unofficial 2013-2014 Armchair GM Thread

[Stickytape]

Many say goalie competition is a good thing, but I prefer heading to camp with no goalie controversy.

Especially since Reimer played his best right after he became the clear #1 goalie around midway last season.  Swapping back and forth between Reimer and Scrivens made them both really edgy and shaky, but once that mess was settled, Reimer seemed to settle down too.  I really hope they don't pull that crap all over again this year.

 

[dappleganger]

Many say goalie competition is a good thing, but I prefer heading to camp with no goalie controversy.

Especially since Reimer played his best right after he became the clear #1 goalie around midway last season.  Swapping back and forth between Reimer and Scrivens made them both really edgy and shaky, but once that mess was settled, Reimer seemed to settle down too.  I really hope they don't pull that crap all over again this year.

If that is true then I don't like Reimer's mental make up.

 

[Stickytape]

Many say goalie competition is a good thing, but I prefer heading to camp with no goalie controversy.

Especially since Reimer played his best right after he became the clear #1 goalie around midway last season.  Swapping back and forth between Reimer and Scrivens made them both really edgy and shaky, but once that mess was settled, Reimer seemed to settle down too.  I really hope they don't pull that crap all over again this year.

If that is true then I don't like Reimer's mental make up.

I don't either, but it's pretty understandable.  A lot of players get in a slump at some point or another, and it's hard to break out when you're only playing every other game, and when one bad game can mean the difference between starting in nets or riding the bench all season, or even indefinitely.

 

[sneakyray]

Many say goalie competition is a good thing, but I prefer heading to camp with no goalie controversy.

Especially since Reimer played his best right after he became the clear #1 goalie around midway last season.  Swapping back and forth between Reimer and Scrivens made them both really edgy and shaky, but once that mess was settled, Reimer seemed to settle down too.  I really hope they don't pull that crap all over again this year.

If that is true then I don't like Reimer's mental make up.

I don't either, but it's pretty understandable.  A lot of players get in a slump at some point or another, and it's hard to break out when you're only playing every other game, and when one bad game can mean the difference between starting in nets or riding the bench all season, or even indefinitely.

don't forget also that scrivens already had half a season under his belt whereas reimer came into the season in january cold.  When Reimer finally settled in he had his phantom injury that kept him out for a few weeks.

to me thats the biggest worry and the best reason to get bernier...because reimer can't stay healthy.

 

[princedpw]

If I were the oilers, who need defense badly, I would dual offer sheet the Leafs.  Here are the compensation levels of interest:

$ 1,552,794 $ 3,105,684 2014 2nd round pick
$ 3,105,684 $ 4,658,386 2014 1st round pick, 2014 3rd round pick

I'd offer maybe $4 million to Franson and 3.1 to Gunnarson.

Even as it stands, I don't see many avenues for the leafs to fill out their roster.  Here's a capgeek roster from a friend:

http://capgeek.com/cap-calculator/roster/27289

You can't go in to the season with just 12 forwards.  How is this going to work out? Trade Liles?  But who wants him at that price during a cap crunch?  Maybe Nonis hopes he cap squeeze Gunnar and Franson down to PKSubban levels?

Thoughts?

Really, I think the Leafs match both those contracts and bury or trade Liles. You'd have to overpay Franson to get him out of Toronto. If they were to overpay Gunnarsson, the Leafs would probably take the package.

Liles can't be buried in the new CBA.  And cap space is at a premium.  Can he be traded?  Will the leafs have to throw in an asset to make it happen?

 

[mr grieves]

If I were the oilers, who need defense badly, I would dual offer sheet the Leafs.  Here are the compensation levels of interest:

$ 1,552,794 $ 3,105,684 2014 2nd round pick
$ 3,105,684 $ 4,658,386 2014 1st round pick, 2014 3rd round pick

I'd offer maybe $4 million to Franson and 3.1 to Gunnarson.

Even as it stands, I don't see many avenues for the leafs to fill out their roster.  Here's a capgeek roster from a friend:

http://capgeek.com/cap-calculator/roster/27289

You can't go in to the season with just 12 forwards.  How is this going to work out? Trade Liles?  But who wants him at that price during a cap crunch?  Maybe Nonis hopes he cap squeeze Gunnar and Franson down to PKSubban levels?

Thoughts?

Really, I think the Leafs match both those contracts and bury or trade Liles. You'd have to overpay Franson to get him out of Toronto. If they were to overpay Gunnarsson, the Leafs would probably take the package.

Liles can't be buried in the new CBA.  And cap space is at a premium.  Can he be traded?  Will the leafs have to throw in an asset to make it happen?

I recall, in seasons past, Leafs fans licking their chops when interesting RFAs had to be re-signed by teams kissing the cap ceiling. If there's no trade that gets rid of Liles, the Leafs are pretty well positioned to get offer-sheeted, and matching might not be something they have much of a choice in.

 

[hockeyfan1]

Many say goalie competition is a good thing, but I prefer heading to camp with no goalie controversy.

Especially since Reimer played his best right after he became the clear #1 goalie around midway last season.  Swapping back and forth between Reimer and Scrivens made them both really edgy and shaky, but once that mess was settled, Reimer seemed to settle down too.  I really hope they don't pull that crap all over again this year.

If that is true then I don't like Reimer's mental make up.

Read somewhere (sports mag/newsletter) that Reiner has been labelled as being "psychologically weak".

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

Liles can't be buried in the new CBA.  And cap space is at a premium.  Can he be traded?  Will the leafs have to throw in an asset to make it happen?

They're not allowed to waive a guy anymore? I guess I missed that in the new CBA.

 

[pnjunction]

With cap space so tight I think a big downside of the Grabovski/Bozak buyout/signing might be that it burned our last compliance buyout. If that buyout was still available I'd use it on Liles and free up space for our RFAs like Franson.

 

[princedpw]

Liles can't be buried in the new CBA.  And cap space is at a premium.  Can he be traded?  Will the leafs have to throw in an asset to make it happen?

They're not allowed to waive a guy anymore? I guess I missed that in the new CBA.

They can waive him and put him in the minors, but for contracts over $1 million (I think it is), they only get 100K cap relief for doing so.  (Busta would know the exact details if I'm getting them wrong.)

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

Liles can't be buried in the new CBA.  And cap space is at a premium.  Can he be traded?  Will the leafs have to throw in an asset to make it happen?

They're not allowed to waive a guy anymore? I guess I missed that in the new CBA.

They can waive him and put him in the minors, but for contracts over $1 million (I think it is), they only get 100K cap relief for doing so.  (Busta would know the exact details if I'm getting them wrong.)

That's unfortunate.

 

[Tigger]

IIRC, last year the most you could save on any contract was 900k when sending a player to the minors, cap wise.

 

[princedpw]

One thing I might try if the cap pinch is too tight is to trade Franson for some good, young entry-level or pre-entry level prospect (especially at forward) and then hopefully sign Tom Gilbert for under 2 million.  The Edmonton bloggers rave about him as a supremely under-rated defender who faced tough competition and did well.  Put Gilbert and Gardiner together on our second line to save money over Franson and use the saved money to fill the extra roster spot we need filled.

 

[Tigger]

FORWARDS
Joffrey Lupul ($5.250m) / Tyler Bozak ($4.200m) / Phil Kessel ($5.400m)
James Van Riemsdyk ($4.250m) / Nazem Kadri ($2.851m) / David Clarkson ($5.250m)
Joe Colborne ($0.927m) / Dave Bolland ($3.375m) / Nikolai Kulemin ($2.800m)
Trevor Smith ($0.550m) / Jay McClement ($1.500m) / Colton Orr ($0.925m)
Frazer McLaren ($0.700m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Carl Gunnarsson ($2.550m) / Dion Phaneuf ($6.500m)
Jake Gardiner ($1.117m) / Cody Franson ($2.800m)
T.J. Brennan ($0.600m) / Tom Gilbert ($2.000m)
Mark Fraser ($0.960m) / Jonathon Blum ($1.250m)
GOALTENDERS
Jonathan Bernier ($2.900m)
James Reimer ($1.800m)
OTHER
Buyout: Darcy Tucker ($1.000m)
Buyout: Colby Armstrong ($1.000m)
RETAINED SALARY TRANSACTIONS (0.778% of upper limit)
Matt Frattin ($0.437m?0.5%) Ben Scrivens ($0.062m?0.1%)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $62,954,042; BONUSES: $300,000
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $1,645,958

Maybe something like that instead of Franson being dealt?

 

[bustaheims]

They can waive him and put him in the minors, but for contracts over $1 million (I think it is), they only get 100K cap relief for doing so.  (Busta would know the exact details if I'm getting them wrong.)

WEll, it's a good thing I'm here, then. 

The way it works now, is that teams only save the league minimum +$375K when they send someone to the minors. So, for the upcoming season, sending a player to the minors would only take $925K off the cap ($550K league min + $375K) - which, I imagine, is a number we'll see a fair amount of 4th line or 3rd pairing dmen sign for in the coming weeks.

 

[Corn Flake]

They can waive him and put him in the minors, but for contracts over $1 million (I think it is), they only get 100K cap relief for doing so.  (Busta would know the exact details if I'm getting them wrong.)

WEll, it's a good thing I'm here, then. 

The way it works now, is that teams only save the league minimum +$375K when they send someone to the minors. So, for the upcoming season, sending a player to the minors would only take $925K off the cap ($550K league min + $375K) - which, I imagine, is a number we'll see a fair amount of 4th line or 3rd pairing dmen sign for in the coming weeks.

So say you had 6 guys all making $925k or less each. If they were all sent down... zero NHL cap hit?

 

[L K]

They can waive him and put him in the minors, but for contracts over $1 million (I think it is), they only get 100K cap relief for doing so.  (Busta would know the exact details if I'm getting them wrong.)

WEll, it's a good thing I'm here, then. 

The way it works now, is that teams only save the league minimum +$375K when they send someone to the minors. So, for the upcoming season, sending a player to the minors would only take $925K off the cap ($550K league min + $375K) - which, I imagine, is a number we'll see a fair amount of 4th line or 3rd pairing dmen sign for in the coming weeks.

So say you had 6 guys all making $925k or less each. If they were all sent down... zero NHL cap hit?

No limit to the cost of bottom 6 players being sent to the minors on 925K deals.  The only restriction would be the little bites into your cap if they get called up rather than having a few guys making 600-750K or so.

 

[bustaheims]

So say you had 6 guys all making $925k or less each. If they were all sent down... zero NHL cap hit?

Yup. But, there are obviously other things limiting the ability to do that, like minimum roster requirements, reserve lists, etc.

 

[Britishbulldog]

I'm interested to see what Kessel and Phaneuf are re-signed at. I think Kessel will get 7 million and Phaneuf might take 6 million on an extended deal. If that happened, I think we'd only add what, 500k -1 million overall next season?

That would leave money for Bolland, Gardiner and Kulemin next season also, depending on what they'd sign for.

As of this moment there is $36 mil in cap space for next season, which of course includes this year's RFA's not yet signed.

If we assume:

$3.0 for Kadri, probably 2 years (Duchene deal)
$2.5 for Gunarsson
$2.9 $3.0 mil for Franson
$1.25 $1.0 mil for Fraser

That's about $9.5 mil in total.

So for next year, that leaves $26.5 mil, not including any cap increase.

assume:

$7 for Kessel
$6 for Phaneuf
$4.5 mil for Bolland
$1.5 for McClement
$4 for Gardiner (assuming a breakout year)
$2.5 for Kulemin (he may walk though)

That's a total of $25.5 spent on those guys, leaving $1 mil in cap room assuming no cap increase.. and we know it will go up at least a few mil.  ..

I'm assuming Reimer probably gets moved or is moved before signed. Even if he stays, there is cap room.

So all in all they are in good shape, assuming the team as assembled is good enough to be at least as good as they were this year and hopefully improving with the kids getting better. 

Where things could get tricky this year is if Rielly makes the team.  his $1.7 maxed out cap hit could cause some challenges.  It's unlikely in either case though.

Here is what I was thinking:

Player Kessel Bolland Kulemin McClement Phaneuf Gardiner Reimer

Term 8 6 5 5 8 3 3

AAV 7 3.75 3 2.5 7 3.0 2.9 29.15

Diff +1.6 +0.4 +0.2 +1.0 +0.5 +2.0 +1.1 $6.8

As noted other times, the NHL in the shortened season would have generated $4.1 BIL pro-rated which would have created a $75 MIL cap ceiling next year and a $55.5 MIL cap floor.  Being conservative and seeing a cap increase to only $70.0 MIL there is still over $3 mil in cap space.  $28.138 (committed) + $9.5 (this year's RFAs) + $29.15 (next year FAs)= $66.788

Kessel hopefully settles for $7.0
Bolland signs long to create a better AAV (4.5, 4.5, 4.5, 4.5, 4.5, 2.25, 2.25)
Phaneuf (or the Leafs captain) could make up to $7,857,143 a year
Gardiner would have a breakout season and get signedto a Subban/Del Zotto contract.
Reimer would get a Bernier contract

 

[Bullfrog]

I really don't see Kessel coming in for anything less than $7.5M. Perry ($8.625M), Getzlaf ($8.25M) and E. Staal at $8.25M are north of $8M, Gaborik at $7.5M, Datsyuk at $7.66, Parise at $7.5, Nash at $7.8M.

I think these will be used as comparables.  I think Datsyuk's is actually a discount compared to his ability.