Unofficial 2013-2014 Armchair GM Thread

[Kessel Run]

Would the head coach really be discussing potential moves with players though? Kinda starting the dressing room rift early no?

 

[Champ Kind]

We would have to give up Gardiner. And with Bozak, Kadri, and Bolland all on the roster Duchene probably isn't a target for Nonis right now.

That's just it - with the type of assets that would be involved, the Leafs really need to get a clear #1 centre back, not a potential #1 centre like Duchene.

I think I could make a pretty decent argument that would suggest Matt Duchene is a #1 centre.  Looking at his career totals, I think you can pencil him in to close to a point-per-game (the only exception being an injury shortened 2011-2012).  I mean, this is a guy that, as a 19 year old, scored 24 goals, 55 points in the Western conference. 

 

[bustaheims]

I think I could make a pretty decent argument that would suggest Matt Duchene is a #1 centre.  Looking at his career totals, I think you can pencil him in to close to a point-per-game (the only exception being an injury shortened 2011-2012).  I mean, this is a guy that, as a 19 year old, scored 24 goals, 55 points in the Western conference.

I'd say it's a pretty weak argument. It's also worth pointing out that, in the season he was 19, GAA between the two conferences was virtually identical, so, the fact that he did so in the West is pretty much irrelevant. And, while 55 points is a nice total for a 19 y/o rookie, it doesn't exactly scream "clear #1" or anything like that. This past season, he produced at a similar rate to Kadri, so, I mean, if there's argument that Duchene is a #1 centre, then there's also an argument that Kadri is, as well. I wouldn't say either of them are. While Duchene may be capable of centring a top line, he's not a #1 centre as far as I'm concerned.

 

[Frank E]

Please take this for what its worth.  Talked to a good friend last night at baseball who is a current defenceman in COL.  Had his first conversation with Roy over the weekend regarding upcoming year.  He was told that he would be partnered with Johnson and that they were to be the shutdown pair. Roy told him they are about to get an offensive D for one of their centers.  He also said it looks like Duchene could be done saying he totally doesnt fit into the room.  Can we just imagine what roster player along with Liles we could add to get that done.  Wow

We would have to give up Gardiner. And with Bozak, Kadri, and Bolland all on the roster Duchene probably isn't a target for Nonis right now.

I don't know man, I think they need a guy that can step into that #1 role.

 

[pnjunction]

I think I could make a pretty decent argument that would suggest Matt Duchene is a #1 centre.  Looking at his career totals, I think you can pencil him in to close to a point-per-game (the only exception being an injury shortened 2011-2012).  I mean, this is a guy that, as a 19 year old, scored 24 goals, 55 points in the Western conference.

I'd say it's a pretty weak argument. It's also worth pointing out that, in the season he was 19, GAA between the two conferences was virtually identical, so, the fact that he did so in the West is pretty much irrelevant. And, while 55 points is a nice total for a 19 y/o rookie, it doesn't exactly scream "clear #1" or anything like that. This past season, he produced at a similar rate to Kadri, so, I mean, if there's argument that Duchene is a #1 centre, then there's also an argument that Kadri is, as well. I wouldn't say either of them are. While Duchene may be capable of centring a top line, he's not a #1 centre as far as I'm concerned.

I know there are concerns about the quality of his opposition last year with Kadri, and who knows what other concerns with Duchene (what line was he on and why the big minus?)  but it seems to me like setting the bar too high to talk about 22-year olds who were #12 and #13 in points at center last season and say they don't have have first line center potential.

I mean look at the top 10 centers on the scoring chart (Crosby, Datsyuk, Staal, Toews, etc.), those guys aren't going anywhere.  Seems like betting on a young guy in the top 20 is realistically our only hope.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

I think I could make a pretty decent argument that would suggest Matt Duchene is a #1 centre.  Looking at his career totals, I think you can pencil him in to close to a point-per-game (the only exception being an injury shortened 2011-2012).  I mean, this is a guy that, as a 19 year old, scored 24 goals, 55 points in the Western conference.

I'd say it's a pretty weak argument. It's also worth pointing out that, in the season he was 19, GAA between the two conferences was virtually identical, so, the fact that he did so in the West is pretty much irrelevant. And, while 55 points is a nice total for a 19 y/o rookie, it doesn't exactly scream "clear #1" or anything like that. This past season, he produced at a similar rate to Kadri, so, I mean, if there's argument that Duchene is a #1 centre, then there's also an argument that Kadri is, as well. I wouldn't say either of them are. While Duchene may be capable of centring a top line, he's not a #1 centre as far as I'm concerned.

Could you imagine Colorado fans talking about only getting Gardiner back..What, with him being the #8 defensemen on the Leafs for most of the season.

 

[bustaheims]

I mean look at the top 10 centers on the scoring chart (Crosby, Datsyuk, Staal, Toews, etc.), those guys aren't going anywhere.  Seems like betting on a young guy in the top 20 is realistically our only hope.

I'm well aware that those guys aren't available, and, what I'm saying is that it's not worth the assets it would cost to acquire the guys in the next tier, because they don't offer enough improvement to the team or they come with too many question marks or holes in their game.

 

[mr grieves]

I think I could make a pretty decent argument that would suggest Matt Duchene is a #1 centre.  Looking at his career totals, I think you can pencil him in to close to a point-per-game (the only exception being an injury shortened 2011-2012).  I mean, this is a guy that, as a 19 year old, scored 24 goals, 55 points in the Western conference.

I'd say it's a pretty weak argument. It's also worth pointing out that, in the season he was 19, GAA between the two conferences was virtually identical, so, the fact that he did so in the West is pretty much irrelevant. And, while 55 points is a nice total for a 19 y/o rookie, it doesn't exactly scream "clear #1" or anything like that. This past season, he produced at a similar rate to Kadri, so, I mean, if there's argument that Duchene is a #1 centre, then there's also an argument that Kadri is, as well. I wouldn't say either of them are. While Duchene may be capable of centring a top line, he's not a #1 centre as far as I'm concerned.

But it's not really Duchene versus the incontestable 1Cs. It'd be Duchene versus Tyler Bozak. It's a pretty low bar to clear. And 67 points before the age of 21 is nothing to sniff at... A Duchene-Kadri 1-2 punch would sure be nice.

Having a proper center for the top line would be especially nice when there's tighter checking.  IIRC, the Leafs had trouble gaining the zone in the early parts of the Boston series because the JVR-Bozak-Kessel unit didn't have enough options to skate it in, and the team did better when Kessel and Lupul or Lupul and Frattin were playing on either side of Bozak, because either of those pairs could do what Bozak couldn't. That can't be done this year without pairing the two crease crashers on the second line. So, if the Leafs were to get Duchene, they could have two nicely balanced top lines of

JVR / Duchene / Kessel
Lupul / Kadri / Clarkson

Anyway, it's not like it's happening. This rumor sounds quite silly. Still, news is slow, so no harm pretending there's some truth to it. I went into the off-season thinking either Gardiner or Rielly would be expendable as part of a package to upgrade center, so the "cost" doesn't seem great to me. Of course, that thinking did sort of require the team to address its need for a less flashy/ offensively minded top 4 defenseman...

 

[bustaheims]

But it's not really Duchene versus the incontestable 1Cs. It'd be Duchene versus Tyler Bozak. It's a pretty low bar to clear. And 67 points before the age of 21 is nothing to sniff at... A Duchene-Kadri 1-2 punch would sure be nice.

It's not that either. It's whether the assets that the Leafs would have to sacrifice in order to acquire Duchene improve the team more than having those assets as part of the organization/on the roster. And, as far as I'm concerned a first line centred by Bozak while having Rielly and Gardiner (and whatever additional assets the Leafs would likely have to add) makes for a better team than one that has Duchene and is lacking one of Rielly and Gardiner and those other assets. Duchene does no represent enough of an upgrade to sacrifice Gardiner or Rielly - neither of which, despite your beliefs, are "expendable." You don't build a successful team by throwing young and very valuable assets away to acquire players that aren't the ideal fit for the hole you're trying to fill - especially when you're as far away from being a real Cup contender as the Leafs are.

 

[mr grieves]

But it's not really Duchene versus the incontestable 1Cs. It'd be Duchene versus Tyler Bozak. It's a pretty low bar to clear. And 67 points before the age of 21 is nothing to sniff at... A Duchene-Kadri 1-2 punch would sure be nice.

It's not that either. It's whether the assets that the Leafs would have to sacrifice in order to acquire Duchene improve the team more than having those assets as part of the organization/on the roster. And, as far as I'm concerned a first line centred by Bozak while having Rielly and Gardiner (and whatever additional assets the Leafs would likely have to add) makes for a better team than one that has Duchene and is lacking one of Rielly and Gardiner and those other assets. Duchene does no represent enough of an upgrade to sacrifice Gardiner or Rielly - neither of which, despite your beliefs, are "expendable." You don't build a successful team by throwing young and very valuable assets away to acquire players that aren't the ideal fit for the hole you're trying to fill - especially when you're as far away from being a real Cup contender as the Leafs are.

Yeah, but reckless as my idea might be, at least I'm spending the assets on a hole that actually exists on the team. I complained about asset management after the Bernier deal, and I complained about devaluing and wasting assets after the team turned Grabovski and MacArthur into nothing but cap space for 2013-14. By your sensible definition, Nonis is not building a successful team. And at this point, I just want someone with the potential to fill one of the holes on the roster.

But as a general point: the team's in the position to retain an offensively gifted Dman in Franson, and has two skating defensemen in Rielly and Gardiner. There's an abundance of offensive talent on the blueline. There's a shortage of scoring centers.

 

[Kin]

But it's not really Duchene versus the incontestable 1Cs. It'd be Duchene versus Tyler Bozak.

On the depth chart, sure, but in terms of "trying to win the Stanley Cup" it still would very much be about Duchene vs. other centers in the league. A team looking to win isn't going to be just focused on incremental improvement, they're going to be looking to acquire the players who are going to be the pieces on a cup winning team. Spending assets like Gardiner and Rielly on someone who doesn't fill the role but is better than Tyler Bozak doesn't fix actually address the issue, it's just a band-aid and an expensive one at that.

It's not just about next year. Nonis can be looking to add the right players, not just the "better" ones.

 

[bustaheims]

Yeah, but reckless as my idea might be, at least I'm spending the assets on a hole that actually exists on the team. I complained about asset management after the Bernier deal, and I complained about devaluing and wasting assets after the team turned Grabovski and MacArthur into nothing but cap space. By your sensible definition, Nonis is not building a successful team. And at this point, I just want someone with the potential to fill one of the holes on the roster.

I wouldn't say that. I'd say he's attempting build things the right way - by moving replaceable assets like Scrivens and Frattin and mid-round picks to address roster issues/improve vital areas, and not moving hard to replace assets like Gardiner and Rielly in trades that don't bring in ideal fits for the other holes on the roster or improve the roster enough to justify the sacrifice.

But as a general point: the team's in the position to retain an offensively gifted Dman in Franson, and has two skating defensemen in Rielly and Gardiner. There's an abundance of offensive talent on the blueline. There's a shortage of scoring centers.

One thing the playoffs taught me is that, while the Leafs need to upgrade down the middle, the more pressing issue against Cup calibre teams like the Bruins is their ability to move the puck out of the defensive zone, and having more players, like Gardiner and Rielly, who can skate the puck out of the zone will go a long way to improving that area. Having an abundance of puck-moving, skating defencemen on the roster is a good thing - provided they're no black holes defensively. Gardiner looked like he's raised his defensive game significantly and Rielly's defensive game is reportedly very good, so, there doesn't appear to be an issue there. The foundation of championship teams are goaltending and defence. As much as the Leafs need to upgrade down the middle - especially when it comes to ability in the faceoff dot - the backend is, and always will be, more important.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

I'd rather trade them just Liles and get an asset back and the cap space that that would bring. I agree that Kadri and Dushene are similar players and it's not guaranteed that either will be that much different, so keeping the assets while we're building is the best move.

Now if we could throw in another "expendable" asset to also fill a hole in that trade, it would be all the better. I haven't looked at their roster all that much to know what we could pluck.

 

[KW Sluggo]

Yeah, but reckless as my idea might be, at least I'm spending the assets on a hole that actually exists on the team. I complained about asset management after the Bernier deal, and I complained about devaluing and wasting assets after the team turned Grabovski and MacArthur into nothing but cap space for 2013-14. By your sensible definition, Nonis is not building a successful team. And at this point, I just want someone with the potential to fill one of the holes on the roster.

But as a general point: the team's in the position to retain an offensively gifted Dman in Franson, and has two skating defensemen in Rielly and Gardiner. There's an abundance of offensive talent on the blueline. There's a shortage of scoring centers.

Yes, and that cap space was used to pay or contribute to covering the salaries of Bernier (upgrade), Clarkson (upgrade) Bolland (upgrade).

It is not all a one sided move releasing players just to create cap space (which still does have some value per se).

 

[mr grieves]

But as a general point: the team's in the position to retain an offensively gifted Dman in Franson, and has two skating defensemen in Rielly and Gardiner. There's an abundance of offensive talent on the blueline. There's a shortage of scoring centers.

One thing the playoffs taught me is that, while the Leafs need to upgrade down the middle, the more pressing issue against Cup calibre teams like the Bruins is their ability to move the puck out of the defensive zone, and having more players, like Gardiner and Rielly, who can skate the puck out of the zone will go a long way to improving that area. Having an abundance of puck-moving, skating defencemen on the roster is a good thing - provided they're no black holes defensively. Gardiner looked like he's raised his defensive game significantly and Rielly's defensive game is reportedly very good, so, there doesn't appear to be an issue there. The foundation of championship teams are goaltending and defence. As much as the Leafs need to upgrade down the middle - especially when it comes to ability in the faceoff dot - the backend is, and always will be, more important.

I certainly agree with this, except for overvaluing the faceoffs. That's one play. There are always more moments in a game when a defenseman is looking to move the puck up ice. Chipping it up the boards, Carlyle's apparent preferred method, got the team nowhere against the Bruins; it was only when they had good first passes that they were able to break out of their zone effectively and come at the Bruins in waves. So, I'd certainly not disagree with the need to do better than Kosta, Holzer, Fraser, O'Bryne.

But, even then, the puck needs to be taken by someone who can get into the offensive zone. Having Bozak on the first line with Kessel and JVR doesn't give you many options. Having Lupul up there instead of JVR does, but then you're down to just Kadri on the second line. In this respect, I think Nonis has (so far) downgraded the team's forward corps this off-season. And, to me, it's not about face-offs; it's about speed and passing ability.

 

[bustaheims]

But, even then, the puck needs to be taken by someone who can get into the offensive zone. Having Bozak on the first line with Kessel and JVR doesn't give you many options. Having Lupul up there instead of JVR does, but then you're down to just Kadri on the second line. In this respect, I think Nonis has (so far) downgraded the team's forward corps this off-season. And, to me, it's not about face-offs; it's about speed and passing ability.

And, yet, that line managed to be one of the most productive in the league this past season.

 

[mr grieves]

But it's not really Duchene versus the incontestable 1Cs. It'd be Duchene versus Tyler Bozak.

On the depth chart, sure, but in terms of "trying to win the Stanley Cup" it still would very much be about Duchene vs. other centers in the league. A team looking to win isn't going to be just focused on incremental improvement, they're going to be looking to acquire the players who are going to be the pieces on a cup winning team. Spending assets like Gardiner and Rielly on someone who doesn't fill the role but is better than Tyler Bozak doesn't fix actually address the issue, it's just a band-aid and an expensive one at that.

It's not just about next year. Nonis can be looking to add the right players, not just the "better" ones.

But how 'incremental' an improvement is Duchene? He bested Bozak's career highs in his rookie year, had 67 points in his sophomore year, and, after a season that seems to have been hampered by injuries, was nearly PPG. Over the last 4 seasons, he's been good for ~ top 25-30 among league centers. And that counts his rookie season.

Whenever I bitch about Bozak I'm told we don't need a 25 goal/ 55 assist center on a line with JVR/ Lupul and Kessel, because the team's strength (and cap dollars) are on the wing, not center. So, I'm not sure it's about "filling the role" of a league-best 1C -- it is about upgrading on Tyler Bozak.

 

[mr grieves]

But, even then, the puck needs to be taken by someone who can get into the offensive zone. Having Bozak on the first line with Kessel and JVR doesn't give you many options. Having Lupul up there instead of JVR does, but then you're down to just Kadri on the second line. In this respect, I think Nonis has (so far) downgraded the team's forward corps this off-season. And, to me, it's not about face-offs; it's about speed and passing ability.

And, yet, that line managed to be one of the most productive in the league this past season.

I thought the Bruins series was supposed to have taught us what the team needs to be successful where it matters?

 

[bustaheims]

I thought the Bruins series was supposed to have taught us what the team needs to be successful where it matters?

Yes, and that line was already successful. There's no impending need to fix anything about it. They also produced very well against the Bruins. Getting into the zone and creating offence was not a problem for them. Their problem was on the defensive side of the puck, but, that can also be attributed to the inability of the blueline to move the puck out of zone effectively. Lupul and Kadri also produced fairly well as a 2nd line. Again, no pressing need to improve that aspect of their game.

 

[Kin]

But how 'incremental' an improvement is Duchene?

Marginal enough that it still leaves the team with the same basic problem, namely that they don't have that sort of top of the league #1 center. If the team is going to trade their better assets in pursuit of something it shouldn't result in a situation that leaves them still looking for an even better option.

So, I'm not sure it's about "filling the role" of a league-best 1C -- it is about upgrading on Tyler Bozak.

I don't know what you mean by "it" here but the simple truth is that adding a center, no matter who he is, isn't just about Bozak no matter how tunnel visioned you might be. Kadri, Colborne, Bolland....anyone who comes into the mix also has to be measured about how they'll fit in going forward and what advantages they present over some of the other guys who would be options on the top line if Bozak isn't in that spot. In Kadri the Leafs already have a young player(within three months of Duchene) who has the offensive potential to be an upgrade over Bozak in that role and Duchene just gives them a second in that mold.