Unofficial 2013-2014 Armchair GM Thread

[princedpw]

Actually, Busta, one would have to assume Bozak would be moved out in place of or with Liles for someone like Stastny.

I think it's a pretty poor assumption to believe the team would move Bozak weeks after re-signing him - especially when it could very well involve asking him to waive his new NTC (it's a "modified" NTC, so I don't know exactly what the conditions are). Bringing in someone like Stastny would be to improve the centre depth, not just to potentially upgrade the 1st line centre. The days of Bozak being traded for Stastny ended when the Leafs signed him to a 5 year, $21M contract.

I am a big dreamer regarding the Leafs roster as you all know but have resolved that the team is pretty much in place for this year.  There is room for 1 prospect/Marlie on the 3rd line (I suspect it will be Colborne).  That's it.

CAPGEEK.COM USER GENERATED ROSTER
My Custom Lineup

FORWARDS
James Van Riemsdyk ($4.250m) / Tyler Bozak ($4.200m) / Phil Kessel ($5.400m)
Joffrey Lupul ($5.250m) / Nazem Kadri ($3.000m) / David Clarkson ($5.250m)
Joe Colborne ($0.600m) / Dave Bolland ($3.375m) / Nikolai Kulemin ($2.800m)
Frazer McLaren ($0.700m) / Jay McClement ($1.500m) / Colton Orr ($0.925m)
Trevor Smith ($0.550m) / Carter Ashton ($1.040m)

DEFENSEMEN
Dion Phaneuf ($6.500m) / Carl Gunnarsson ($2.500m)
Jake Gardiner ($1.117m) / John-Michael Liles ($3.875m)
Mark Fraser ($1.000m) / Cody Franson ($3.000m)
T.J. Brennan ($0.600m) /

GOALTENDERS
Jonathan Bernier ($2.900m)
James Reimer ($1.800m)

OTHER
Buyout: Darcy Tucker ($1.000m)
Buyout: Colby Armstrong ($1.000m)
RETAINED SALARY TRANSACTIONS (0.778% of upper limit)
Matt Frattin ($0.437m?0.5%) Ben Scrivens ($0.062m?0.1%)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $64,631,667; BONUSES: $500,000
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $168,333

Not a lot of wiggle room.  I would still change 2 or 3 things but I can't see it happening

I think this lineup illustrates the fact that the Leafs don't have enough cap space.  It has fairly optimistic assumptions for Kadri, Gunnar, Franson and Fraser and yet there is only 170K to spare.  One really needs to find at least another 1 million in cap space (preferably 1.5).  I guess one could find that by starting the season with just a 22-man roster, jettisoning Ashton.  That would give them 1.1 in space. Do teams ever start with less than a 23-man roster at the beginning of the season?  Did NJ do that?  (I know Calgary did something like that later in the season.)

 

[Redleaf]

Actually, Busta, one would have to assume Bozak would be moved out in place of or with Liles for someone like Stastny.

I think it's a pretty poor assumption to believe the team would move Bozak weeks after re-signing him - especially when it could very well involve asking him to waive his new NTC (it's a "modified" NTC, so I don't know exactly what the conditions are). Bringing in someone like Stastny would be to improve the centre depth, not just to potentially upgrade the 1st line centre. The days of Bozak being traded for Stastny ended when the Leafs signed him to a 5 year, $21M contract.

I am a big dreamer regarding the Leafs roster as you all know but have resolved that the team is pretty much in place for this year.  There is room for 1 prospect/Marlie on the 3rd line (I suspect it will be Colborne).  That's it.

CAPGEEK.COM USER GENERATED ROSTER
My Custom Lineup

FORWARDS
James Van Riemsdyk ($4.250m) / Tyler Bozak ($4.200m) / Phil Kessel ($5.400m)
Joffrey Lupul ($5.250m) / Nazem Kadri ($3.000m) / David Clarkson ($5.250m)
Joe Colborne ($0.600m) / Dave Bolland ($3.375m) / Nikolai Kulemin ($2.800m)
Frazer McLaren ($0.700m) / Jay McClement ($1.500m) / Colton Orr ($0.925m)
Trevor Smith ($0.550m) / Carter Ashton ($1.040m)

DEFENSEMEN
Dion Phaneuf ($6.500m) / Carl Gunnarsson ($2.500m)
Jake Gardiner ($1.117m) / John-Michael Liles ($3.875m)
Mark Fraser ($1.000m) / Cody Franson ($3.000m)
T.J. Brennan ($0.600m) /

GOALTENDERS
Jonathan Bernier ($2.900m)
James Reimer ($1.800m)

OTHER
Buyout: Darcy Tucker ($1.000m)
Buyout: Colby Armstrong ($1.000m)
RETAINED SALARY TRANSACTIONS (0.778% of upper limit)
Matt Frattin ($0.437m?0.5%) Ben Scrivens ($0.062m?0.1%)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $64,631,667; BONUSES: $500,000
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $168,333

Not a lot of wiggle room.  I would still change 2 or 3 things but I can't see it happening

I think this lineup illustrates the fact that the Leafs don't have enough cap space.  It has fairly optimistic assumptions for Kadri, Gunnar, Franson and Fraser and yet there is only 170K to spare.  One really needs to find at least another 1 million in cap space (preferably 1.5).  I guess one could find that by starting the season with just a 22-man roster, jettisoning Ashton.  That would give them 1.1 in space. Do teams ever start with less than a 23-man roster at the beginning of the season?  Did NJ do that?  (I know Calgary did something like that later in the season.)

I think the most obvious solution is to trade Liles, for a cheaper, stay-at-home defenceman.

 

[princedpw]

I think the most obvious solution is to trade Liles, for a cheaper, stay-at-home defenceman.

What team do you think wants to take Liles, a $3.8 million, often scratched defenseman in the midst of this cap crunch?  Why do you think he hasn't been traded yet if that is the plan?

It's quite possible there is a team but it seems possible there isn't --- that perhaps the Leafs will have to make a Franson-style deal in reverse, giving up assets they didn't need to ... <insert lament about Grabbo buyout, MacCarthur shedding, Bozak and Clarkson contracts here>

 

[Kin]

What team do you think wants to take Liles, a $3.8 million, often scratched defenseman in the midst of this cap crunch?  Why do you think he hasn't been traded yet if that is the plan?

Well, I think the answer to that is easy. They're hoping that the negotiations will shake out that they can keep everyone. Whether that's realistic or not there's really nothing to be gained by the Leafs by shopping Liles while teams still have options on the FA market so there's no reason for them to have done it by now rather than waiting until the Gunnar/Kadri/Franson deals are done.

As for what trades might exist for Liles I think you're ignoring one legitimate possibility besides relying on a team's generosity or needing to bribe a team to take him and that's trading Liles and his inflated contract somewhere for someone that makes less money(enough to make room for the RFA deals) but who is just as on the outs with their team as Liles is here. There are a lot of so-so players around the league making 2 million or so.

 

[princedpw]

What team do you think wants to take Liles, a $3.8 million, often scratched defenseman in the midst of this cap crunch?  Why do you think he hasn't been traded yet if that is the plan?

Well, I think the answer to that is easy. They're hoping that the negotiations will shake out that they can keep everyone. Whether that's realistic or not there's really nothing to be gained by the Leafs by shopping Liles while teams still have options on the FA market so there's no reason for them to have done it by now rather than waiting until the Gunnar/Kadri/Franson deals are done.

As for what trades might exist for Liles I think you're ignoring one legitimate possibility besides relying on a team's generosity or needing to bribe a team to take him and that's trading Liles and his inflated contract somewhere for someone that makes less money(enough to make room for the RFA deals) but who is just as on the outs with their team as Liles is here. There are a lot of so-so players around the league making 2 million or so.

Yes, I can believe they are waiting until after the RFAs are signed --- obviously, they have a much better idea that I do about *exactly* how much money they are willing to give each guy, and really that's what we need to know at this point, the exact amounts because a few hundred thousand either way can make the difference.

I do observe that if you wait until the RFAs are signed, and that puts you over the cap, there is more of a squeeze on you to get rid of Liles.

It would be interesting to know specifically which teams you think might be interested in Liles swap of the kind you suggest.  I'm looking for teams with cap space on capgeek that may want/be able to spend a little more.  I'm seeing a few I suppose:  Devils, Senators, Sabers, Jets, Flames, Washington?  Anyway, love to hear guesses on where he might go and for what.

Certainly, trading Liles is *the* solution.

 

[Kin]

I do observe that if you wait until the RFAs are signed, and that puts you over the cap, there is more of a squeeze on you to get rid of Liles.

Yeah, but that's only really a problem if the Leafs have very little interest in him. That might be the case but if there's a few teams interested at the right price that isn't much of a concern.

It would be interesting to know specifically which teams you think might be interested in Liles swap of the kind you suggest.  I'm looking for teams with cap space on capgeek that may want/be able to spend a little more.  I'm seeing a few I suppose:  Devils, Senators, Sabers, Jets, Flames, Washington?  Anyway, love to hear guesses on where he might go and for what.

It doesn't make a ton of sense cap wise but I'd heard that the Red Wings were still interested in adding another defenseman. The Blues, maybe. In addition to the teams you're talking about you can also look at teams with less cap space but who have nearly their entire team signed and so adding 2 or 3 million dollars in Liles could be their last move. The Blue Jackets, Lightning, Wild...teams that are pretty shaky/in need of veterans on the back end.

Certainly, trading Liles is *the* solution.

Well, it's a solution anyway. I think shopping Kulemin, provided you get something back that goes a way to replacing what you give up or you're confident enough in some of the guys on the Marlies, could be another.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

Well, it's a solution anyway. I think shopping Kulemin, provided you get something back that goes a way to replacing what you give up or you're confident enough in some of the guys on the Marlies, could be another.

While I love Kulemin and what he brings to the rink, do any of the guys they've already added replace his skill set? I haven't watched enough of either to really have an opinion.

 

[Champ Kind]

I think the most obvious solution is to trade Liles, for a cheaper, stay-at-home defenceman.

What team do you think wants to take Liles, a $3.8 million, often scratched defenseman in the midst of this cap crunch?  Why do you think he hasn't been traded yet if that is the plan?

While I agree with your logic, reality suggests otherwise.  In the last month, we've seen Sergei Gonchar sign for $5M / year and Mark Streit got more than that from the Flyers.  I actually think JML's contract provides decent value. 

 

[Corn Flake]

Well, it's a solution anyway. I think shopping Kulemin, provided you get something back that goes a way to replacing what you give up or you're confident enough in some of the guys on the Marlies, could be another.

While I love Kulemin and what he brings to the rink, do any of the guys they've already added replace his skill set? I haven't watched enough of either to really have an opinion.

No, not really.  Bolland replaces Grabbo on the defensive side and some of the (of two years ago) offense.  Clarkson is an upgrade on Mac.  Clarkson definitely doesn't have the defensive acumen that Kulemin does. We've already lost Komarov and losing another PK'er and physical winger would be a big deal, IMO.  I like the Bolland, Kuelmin, Bozak, McClement top 4 PK'ing forwards. If you took Kulemin out of that I think things get pretty shaky.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

Well, it's a solution anyway. I think shopping Kulemin, provided you get something back that goes a way to replacing what you give up or you're confident enough in some of the guys on the Marlies, could be another.

While I love Kulemin and what he brings to the rink, do any of the guys they've already added replace his skill set? I haven't watched enough of either to really have an opinion.

No, not really.  Bolland replaces Grabbo on the defensive side and some of the (of two years ago) offense.  Clarkson is an upgrade on Mac.  Clarkson definitely doesn't have the defensive acumen that Kulemin does. We've already lost Komarov and losing another PK'er and physical winger would be a big deal, IMO.  I like the Bolland, Kuelmin, Bozak, McClement top 4 PK'ing forwards. If you took Kulemin out of that I think things get pretty shaky.

Thanks CF!

 

[drummond]

I am a big dreamer regarding the Leafs roster as you all know but have resolved that the team is pretty much in place for this year.  There is room for 1 prospect/Marlie on the 3rd line (I suspect it will be Colborne).  That's it.

CAPGEEK.COM USER GENERATED ROSTER
My Custom Lineup

FORWARDS
James Van Riemsdyk ($4.250m) / Tyler Bozak ($4.200m) / Phil Kessel ($5.400m)
Joffrey Lupul ($5.250m) / Nazem Kadri ($3.000m) / David Clarkson ($5.250m)
Joe Colborne ($0.600m) / Dave Bolland ($3.375m) / Nikolai Kulemin ($2.800m)
Frazer McLaren ($0.700m) / Jay McClement ($1.500m) / Colton Orr ($0.925m)
Trevor Smith ($0.550m) / Carter Ashton ($1.040m)

DEFENSEMEN
Dion Phaneuf ($6.500m) / Carl Gunnarsson ($2.500m)
Jake Gardiner ($1.117m) / John-Michael Liles ($3.875m)
Mark Fraser ($1.000m) / Cody Franson ($3.000m)
T.J. Brennan ($0.600m) /

GOALTENDERS
Jonathan Bernier ($2.900m)
James Reimer ($1.800m)

OTHER
Buyout: Darcy Tucker ($1.000m)
Buyout: Colby Armstrong ($1.000m)
RETAINED SALARY TRANSACTIONS (0.778% of upper limit)
Matt Frattin ($0.437m?0.5%) Ben Scrivens ($0.062m?0.1%)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $64,631,667; BONUSES: $500,000
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $168,333

Not a lot of wiggle room.  I would still change 2 or 3 things but I can't see it happening

I think you're pretty reasonable with your statement, Bulldog.  I think there might be one or two changes to your lineup come opening day: I think there is a legitimate chance for a young Marlie to find a spot on the fourth line.  Someone who can play hard but be more than a one-dimensional fighter, maybe Carter Ashton or Tyler Biggs.  Orr and McLaren would platoon in this model.

Second, I think the defense will have a different look to it next year, whether it's through trade, salary dump, or a prospect surprising in camp and making the team.

With Gunnar caphit 3.15 someone has to go, unless the Leafs manage to get remaining RFA really cheap

 

[dappleganger]

Franson might be the odd man out.

 

[bustaheims]

Franson might be the odd man out.

That wouldn't surprise me, either. The Leafs could very well sell high on him. His value isn't likely to get much higher than it is right now.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

Personally, I want to keep Franson. I think he'll get a longer deal than Gunnarsson. Liles is the one that doesn't fit long term.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Franson might be the odd man out.

That wouldn't surprise me, either. The Leafs could very well sell high on him. His value isn't likely to get much higher than it is right now.

That would leave quite a hole on the Leafs blueline though. Particularily on the right side. And it would essentially force Randy to play Liles and Gardiner on the second pairing, two defencemen he didn't trust for most of last season. Or he could play Fraser and/or Holzer there *shudders*.

Unless of course they were planning on signing somebody like Gilbert or Hainsey to replace him. But I think we could use one of those two as is.

 

[Stickytape]

Personally, I want to keep Franson. I think he'll get a longer deal than Gunnarsson. Liles is the one that doesn't fit long term.

Same here.  Franson is a keeper.

 

[Kin]

Personally, I want to keep Franson. I think he'll get a longer deal than Gunnarsson. Liles is the one that doesn't fit long term.

Realistically I think it's both Franson and Liles. Franson's a good player but between Phaneuf, Gardiner and Rielly you have three good offensive defensemen who will realistically be on the club in the next couple years. With Gunnar around as a good, steady defensive presence you really have to wonder if Franson has a spot in the top 4 going forward.

 

[bustaheims]

Realistically I think it's both Franson and Liles. Franson's a good player but between Phaneuf, Gardiner and Rielly you have three good offensive defensemen who will realistically be on the club in the next couple years. With Gunnar around as a good, steady defensive presence you really have to wonder if Franson has a spot in the top 4 going forward.

There's that, combined with the fact that adding someone like Gilbert on a short-term deal could make up for enough of his contributions this season and the team likely being able to acquire a pretty solid package of futures for him right now make me think he could very well be the one on the block.

 

[princedpw]

Ok. You guys don't seem concerned.  I'll be relieved when they make this work.  I hadn't really thought of trading Franson because it seems to leave such a huge hole in an already weak defense. It is true that this would be an opportunity to sell high, having bought low (too bad they didn't do that with Grabbo! or Mac!) if there was a way they could ply a prospect out of Edmonton like Klefbom (think that's his name).  That would be nice ....

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

Realistically I think it's both Franson and Liles. Franson's a good player but between Phaneuf, Gardiner and Rielly you have three good offensive defensemen who will realistically be on the club in the next couple years. With Gunnar around as a good, steady defensive presence you really have to wonder if Franson has a spot in the top 4 going forward.

Rielly plays the left side, doesn't he? If Franson gets traded, we'd be left with Phaneuf who plays the right side and Marlies. Unless we're making a bigger trade for another top 4 guy that plays more defensive minutes, that can also play with an offensive guy, I'd rather keep Franson. Gilbert doesn't make that up for me.