Unofficial 2013-2014 Armchair GM Thread
- Thread starter Champ Kind
- Start date
It is tough for me to argue about these things in the abstract---it would have to be about the details of the deal. For instance, I'd deal Gardiner straight up for Duchene assuming I could rid myself of Bozak. I'd probably try to fill the defensive hole with a UFA like Tom Gilbert.
One reason I'd do the trade is that unless the leafs tank it to a top-2 draft pick, I see little hope for acquiring a center with as much potential as Duchene. (I'm curious, what other option better than Duchene might possibly be on the horizon?) So if given the opportunity, I'd take him if the price is right. Getting a guy with Gardiner's potential is tough too, no doubt, but I think Duchene's ceiling is a little higher. So I'd take the higher potential guy who I think is harder to replace long term. But I don't think a trade for Duchene is the slightest bit likely to happen....
One reason I'd do the trade is that unless the leafs tank it to a top-2 draft pick, I see little hope for acquiring a center with as much potential as Duchene. (I'm curious, what other option better than Duchene might possibly be on the horizon?) So if given the opportunity, I'd take him if the price is right. Getting a guy with Gardiner's potential is tough too, no doubt, but I think Duchene's ceiling is a little higher. So I'd take the higher potential guy who I think is harder to replace long term. But I don't think a trade for Duchene is the slightest bit likely to happen....
gilmourthegreat
New member
Matt Duchene is statistically one of the best 22 year-old hockey players in the world, and plays a position where the Leafs currently lack top-line skill. Even if he is not currently a #1 centre (which I would argue he is, since there are fewer than 29 you wouldn't trade for him), isn't there a really good chance he becomes one soon?
Kadri and Duchene is a combo which could become Cup-contending dominant, if they both continue on their current albeit limited trends. If Nonis passes on Gardiner+Liles for Duchene, or some reasonable equivalent, I would question his judgement.
Kadri and Duchene is a combo which could become Cup-contending dominant, if they both continue on their current albeit limited trends. If Nonis passes on Gardiner+Liles for Duchene, or some reasonable equivalent, I would question his judgement.
mr grieves
New member
Nik the Trik said:
So, a trade rocketing the team up from having a 1C ranked ~40th in the league to one in the top 10 is worth a trade involving either Gardiner or Rielly, but one sending them up merely into the top 15 isn't? Plus the kid is still Kadri's age, and so still developing and not likely to yet have a "top of the league #1 center" reputation. Teams part with young talent more frequently than blossomed talent, though not as frequently as they do declining talent. Between the first and the last, I'd look to get lucky with a young player that, for whatever reason, no longer fits a team's plan. Like Phil Kessel, say.
Nik the Trik said:
I meant this: if you're going to have top lines that don't have a top center and a top winger, plus someone to ride along (which seems to be what most teams do), but instead have 2 excellent wingers and one less talented center, you might be able to make do with a decent but not league best center. There's still a lot of room for improvement if you're making do with Tyler Bozak -- or Derek Roy, or Kyle Wellwood, or Frans Nielsen, or Dominic Moore, or Steve Ott, or any other centers Bozak finds himself among in the points race.
Duchene doesn't have the offensive potential to be an upgrade -- he is an upgrade. Is he enough of an upgrade that he's worth parting with your best assets for? In terms of production and track record, maybe no. But since he's still got another RFA contract, he's cost controlled relative to the 1Cs you'd find on the UFA market. There's something in there that's usually worth spending assets on.
mr grieves
New member
I think something like the following would be a decent upgrade on where we are, well worth Bozak+Liles+1st, worth Bozak+Rielly+a lower pick. Comes with cap savings to re-sign RFAs too.
FORWARDS
Joffrey Lupul ($5.250m) / Matt Duchene ($3.500m) / Phil Kessel ($5.400m)
James Van Riemsdyk ($4.250m) / Nazem Kadri ($3.500m) / David Clarkson ($5.250m)
Jay McClement ($1.500m) / Dave Bolland ($3.375m) / Nikolai Kulemin ($2.800m)
Josh Leivo ($0.925m) / Joe Colborne ($0.600m) / Colton Orr ($0.925m)
Frazer McLaren ($0.700m) / David Broll ($0.591m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Dion Phaneuf ($6.500m) / Carl Gunnarsson ($2.750m)
Jake Gardiner ($1.117m) / Cody Franson ($3.250m)
Mark Fraser ($0.900m) / Tom Gilbert ($2.750m)
T.J. Brennan ($0.600m) /
GOALTENDERS
Jonathan Bernier ($2.900m)
James Reimer ($1.800m)
OTHER
Buyout: Darcy Tucker ($1.000m)
Buyout: Colby Armstrong ($1.000m)
RETAINED SALARY TRANSACTIONS (1.983% of upper limit)
Matt Frattin ($0.437m?0.5%) Ben Scrivens ($0.062m?0.1%) John-Michael Liles ($0.775m?20.0%)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $64,407,500; BONUSES: $532,500
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $425,000
FORWARDS
Joffrey Lupul ($5.250m) / Matt Duchene ($3.500m) / Phil Kessel ($5.400m)
James Van Riemsdyk ($4.250m) / Nazem Kadri ($3.500m) / David Clarkson ($5.250m)
Jay McClement ($1.500m) / Dave Bolland ($3.375m) / Nikolai Kulemin ($2.800m)
Josh Leivo ($0.925m) / Joe Colborne ($0.600m) / Colton Orr ($0.925m)
Frazer McLaren ($0.700m) / David Broll ($0.591m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Dion Phaneuf ($6.500m) / Carl Gunnarsson ($2.750m)
Jake Gardiner ($1.117m) / Cody Franson ($3.250m)
Mark Fraser ($0.900m) / Tom Gilbert ($2.750m)
T.J. Brennan ($0.600m) /
GOALTENDERS
Jonathan Bernier ($2.900m)
James Reimer ($1.800m)
OTHER
Buyout: Darcy Tucker ($1.000m)
Buyout: Colby Armstrong ($1.000m)
RETAINED SALARY TRANSACTIONS (1.983% of upper limit)
Matt Frattin ($0.437m?0.5%) Ben Scrivens ($0.062m?0.1%) John-Michael Liles ($0.775m?20.0%)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $64,407,500; BONUSES: $532,500
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $425,000
Kin
New member
mr grieves said:
Well, it seems like you're pretty proud of yourself for catching me in what you seem to think is a bit of a contradiction but really it's all down to the problem of you thinking my point of view doesn't add up because I'm not starting from a position of agreeing with your every assessment of every player. So Duchene is a top 15 center in the league? Based on....points? Well, leaving aside the problem that judging a player solely on that basis is problematic you're left with the more pressing contradiction that the Leafs already have a center who finished in the top 15 in scoring. So if the argument is that Duchene's scoring output makes him a player who fills a hole the Leafs need filled, you're left trying to explain why Kadri doesn't already fill it.
Again, in the question of "Who will be the Leafs #1 center going forward" the question is emphatically not just whoever you might want to bring in vs. Tyler Bozak.
mr grieves said:
Oh good. I was looking forward to another episode of Biased Comparison Theatre.
Regardless, nobody is arguing that there isn't room for improvement on Bozak. Just whether or not Duchene would provide enough of an upgrade to make it worth the cost.
mr grieves said:
Unless, again, the Leafs view of the situation is that when it comes to the bigger picture of "Who will be our #1 center going forward" it isn't about Duchene and his potential vs. Bozak and his but rather Duchene and his potential vs. Bozak, Kadri, Bolland and Colborne and theirs. If the Leafs see Kadri as that guy, which seems pretty likely based on his year last year, then the question is really about whether or not Duchene is enough of an improvement on Kadri in terms of potential in the #1C job or, failing that, the rest of them in the #2C job and whether that outweighs what Gardiner or Rielly could provide in terms of being the sort of elite puck moving defenseman the Leafs desperately need.
But even moving past that, princedpw is right that talking about this trade in the abstract is largely meaningless. You'll notice that when I talk about this as a potential trade I talk about the leafs spending assets like Gardiner and Rielly whereas you, arguing about just how great a trade this would be, talk about a trade involving one of Gariner or Rielly. I don't know what it would take to trade for Duchene if he is indeed available but I'd guess that, sort of like the return I'd want for Kadri, Roy wouldn't be satisfied with trading a good young NHL player for another team's prospect and a questionable draft pick(Bozak+Liles+a first as you suggest below does not strike me as being anywhere near the ballpark) so it's probably important to remember that, going forward, opinion on trading for Duchene is going to be split based not only on people's opinions of Duchene or Bozak or Kadri but also on whether or not they think that Colorado is going to trade him for the hot dog parts you seem to think they will.
J
Jalili
Guest
Big Daddy said:
Very interesting. I'm guessing the mystery player's initials were RW?
That sounds like one of those situations that, going by the wording, could take years to materialize before any deal takes place, so I wouldn't expect anything to happen in the near future. Maybe a year or two down the road, who knows.
bustaheims
Active member
caveman said:
Are the Avs retaining half his cap hit and sending him over just for Liles? Because, otherwise, it's not likely to be worth it in terms of assets and cap issues.
Britishbulldog
Active member
bustaheims said:
I agree. With all this talk by the Leafs that they are in good shape cap-wise, they really don't have a lot of wiggle room.
bustaheims
Active member
Britishbulldog said:
They're in good shape when it comes to retaining their RFAs and they're positioned nicely for next season, but, they're can't do much else this summer without shedding salary first.
bustaheims said:
Are they really in good shape? I don't really see how they can get the RFAs signed and get under the cap with enough slack to spatr unless they trade Liles, but I'm not seeing why another team will want to do the leafs the favour of taking him off their hands.... The Phaneuf rumor might have a slight shred of plausibility if it was about cap space ...
Highlander
Active member
The Cap space is going to go up tremendously next year, probably 10 to 15 million.
Champ Kind
New member
bustaheims said:
Actually, Busta, one would have to assume Bozak would be moved out in place of or with Liles for someone like Stastny. Really, isn't the team in the same predicament it found iteself in prior to buying out Grabovski? Unless the incoming player is a clear improvement over Bozak, or maybe Kadri, and one of them is included in the deal, I think it's a "what you see is what you get" regarding the Leafs up the middle.
My money would be on the Leafs acquiring a defenseman more than a centre at this point.
bustaheims
Active member
Champ Kind said:
I think it's a pretty poor assumption to believe the team would move Bozak weeks after re-signing him - especially when it could very well involve asking him to waive his new NTC (it's a "modified" NTC, so I don't know exactly what the conditions are). Bringing in someone like Stastny would be to improve the centre depth, not just to potentially upgrade the 1st line centre. The days of Bozak being traded for Stastny ended when the Leafs signed him to a 5 year, $21M contract.
Britishbulldog
Active member
bustaheims said:
I am a big dreamer regarding the Leafs roster as you all know but have resolved that the team is pretty much in place for this year. There is room for 1 prospect/Marlie on the 3rd line (I suspect it will be Colborne). That's it.
CAPGEEK.COM USER GENERATED ROSTER
My Custom Lineup
FORWARDS
James Van Riemsdyk ($4.250m) / Tyler Bozak ($4.200m) / Phil Kessel ($5.400m)
Joffrey Lupul ($5.250m) / Nazem Kadri ($3.000m) / David Clarkson ($5.250m)
Joe Colborne ($0.600m) / Dave Bolland ($3.375m) / Nikolai Kulemin ($2.800m)
Frazer McLaren ($0.700m) / Jay McClement ($1.500m) / Colton Orr ($0.925m)
Trevor Smith ($0.550m) / Carter Ashton ($1.040m)
DEFENSEMEN
Dion Phaneuf ($6.500m) / Carl Gunnarsson ($2.500m)
Jake Gardiner ($1.117m) / John-Michael Liles ($3.875m)
Mark Fraser ($1.000m) / Cody Franson ($3.000m)
T.J. Brennan ($0.600m) /
GOALTENDERS
Jonathan Bernier ($2.900m)
James Reimer ($1.800m)
OTHER
Buyout: Darcy Tucker ($1.000m)
Buyout: Colby Armstrong ($1.000m)
RETAINED SALARY TRANSACTIONS (0.778% of upper limit)
Matt Frattin ($0.437m?0.5%) Ben Scrivens ($0.062m?0.1%)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $64,631,667; BONUSES: $500,000
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $168,333
Not a lot of wiggle room. I would still change 2 or 3 things but I can't see it happening
Champ Kind
New member
bustaheims said:
Well that's my point. How does a player like Stastney work on the Leafs at this point in time? With Bozak going into this year with a rich 5 year contract, are we to assume the Leafs would be comfortable with him being bumped to the third or fourth line to make room for a first line centre? I think the Leafs 2013-14 centres will be as they are at this point in time: Bozak, Kadri, Bolland, McClement.
Champ Kind
New member
Britishbulldog said:
I think you're pretty reasonable with your statement, Bulldog. I think there might be one or two changes to your lineup come opening day: I think there is a legitimate chance for a young Marlie to find a spot on the fourth line. Someone who can play hard but be more than a one-dimensional fighter, maybe Carter Ashton or Tyler Biggs. Orr and McLaren would platoon in this model.
Second, I think the defense will have a different look to it next year, whether it's through trade, salary dump, or a prospect surprising in camp and making the team.
Kin
New member
A Weekend at Bernier's said:
As little as Stastny might fit into the Leafs right now(although you could, I suppose, flip Bolland if it all made sense) Bozak makes even less sense on the Avs. The whole reason they'd be looking to move a center is because they have four right now, all of whom should be getting ice-time in the top 9. Taking back Bozak at 4.2 million to be #4 on their depth chart doesn't fit at all.
louisstamos
Active member
In all honesty - I'd run with Kadri and Bozak this year and see what they're made of - you go after Stastny next summer when he could potentially be a UFA if the other two don't cut it. Then maybe you let Bolland walk and then you have Stastny-Kadri-Bozak as your top 3 centres (not necessarily in that order).