What to do with Andersen

[Highlander]

At this point, the Leafs need to be willing to move on from anyone on the roster not signed for the long-term. Doesn?t mean they need to pull the trigger, but they need to explore all options for aging players and non-core pieces. So, that?s not really news...

Wasn't Anderson's greatest year, however our real loss this season is the length of time it took to find a reliable backup in Campbell.  If Hutch had been able to win even half his games our final ranking would have been much better.  Maybe better to live with the devil we know than the Goalie we don't.  Hate to see another asset go for nada though.

While he's not signed long term, I'd consider Andersen a "core" piece.

I mean, I get the appeal of moving a talented goalie and trying to find an equal to replacement for him and upgrading defence with Andersen's 5 million, but I don't see how that's even remotely possible. Perhaps someone can do up a spreadsheet for me or a flow chart.

Please remember, that a lot of people have attributed a lot of the Leafs struggles this season to Andersen's struggles. Now imagine that all year with a less than goaltender.

 

[Highlander]

At this point, the Leafs need to be willing to move on from anyone on the roster not signed for the long-term. Doesn?t mean they need to pull the trigger, but they need to explore all options for aging players and non-core pieces. So, that?s not really news...

While he's not signed long term, I'd consider Andersen a "core" piece.

I mean, I get the appeal of moving a talented goalie and trying to find an equal to replacement for him and upgrading defence with Andersen's 5 million, but I don't see how that's even remotely possible. Perhaps someone can do up a spreadsheet for me or a flow chart.

Please remember, that a lot of people have attributed a lot of the Leafs struggles this season to Andersen's struggles. Now imagine that all year with a less than goaltender.

Wasn't Anderson's greatest year, however our real loss this season is the length of time it took to find a reliable backup in Campbell.  If Hutch had been able to win even half his games our final ranking would have been much better.  Maybe better to live with the devil we know than the Goalie we don't.  Hate to see another asset go for nada though.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Can they get Matt Murray, who I'm not really a fan of, for cheap?

I was previously on board for Matt Murray but I didn't take into consideration the arbitration issue. Despite his poor numbers this season, his history could give him a payday in the $5-6mil range. Or maybe not, but his best bet will definitely be to go through arbitration so there's a big risk there.

And I think that risk will be there for every team. I wonder if Pittsburgh is unable to trade him because of that. If they walk away from his arbitration award maybe then I'd swoop in. Or maybe Pittsburgh's best bet is to convince him to sign for $5mil for 1 year instead of going to arbitration and then retaining salary on that.

 

[Guilt Trip]

At this point, the Leafs need to be willing to move on from anyone on the roster not signed for the long-term. Doesn?t mean they need to pull the trigger, but they need to explore all options for aging players and non-core pieces. So, that?s not really news...

While he's not signed long term, I'd consider Andersen a "core" piece.

I mean, I get the appeal of moving a talented goalie and trying to find an equal to replacement for him and upgrading defence with Andersen's 5 million, but I don't see how that's even remotely possible. Perhaps someone can do up a spreadsheet for me or a flow chart.

Please remember, that a lot of people have attributed a lot of the Leafs struggles this season to Andersen's struggles. Now imagine that all year with a less than goaltender.

Wasn't Anderson's greatest year, however our real loss this season is the length of time it took to find a reliable backup in Campbell.  If Hutch had been able to win even half his games our final ranking would have been much better.  Maybe better to live with the devil we know than the Goalie we don't.  Hate to see another asset go for nada though.

I would agree with that. In fact the last 2 years our backups have sucked.  If we can cut down on Freddie's games he should be more rested going into the playoffs. We haven't utilized that kind of strategy yet. Campbell should help.

 

[Bullfrog]

James Reimer.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Can they get Matt Murray, who I'm not really a fan of, for cheap?

I was previously on board for Matt Murray but I didn't take into consideration the arbitration issue. Despite his poor numbers this season, his history could give him a payday in the $5-6mil range. Or maybe not, but his best bet will definitely be to go through arbitration so there's a big risk there.

And I think that risk will be there for every team. I wonder if Pittsburgh is unable to trade him because of that. If they walk away from his arbitration award maybe then I'd swoop in. Or maybe Pittsburgh's best bet is to convince him to sign for $5mil for 1 year instead of going to arbitration and then retaining salary on that.

That's a very good point. I never thought of that. There won't be too many teams willing to take a risk like that and that could def effect the cost to acquire him. I suspect the contract would be discussed/settled before any trade is made.

 

[Guilt Trip]

James Reimer.

We have a backup already.

 

[bustaheims]

James Reimer.

Reimer needs to play behind a more solid defensive team than the Leafs have been over the last couple years.

 

[Phileas Fogg]

James Reimer.

Reimer needs to play behind a more solid defensive team than the Leafs have been over the last couple years.

And that sort of summarizes my thinking in terms of how Andersen has been undervalued by the stat monkeys over his tenure here. GAA and SV% are heavily influenced by the D corps, not just the goalie - and when think of the sum of Andersen's work, I remember an awful lot of games that he stole, and precious few that he lost based upon expected saves. For a lot of seasons he's been here, I'd rate Toronto's defence in the bottom 3rd of the league.

I'm not saying that an argument can't be made to move him at this point in his career, but I'm not so sure it can be made based on his performance in the uniform.

 

[Guilt Trip]

James Reimer.

Reimer needs to play behind a more solid defensive team than the Leafs have been over the last couple years.

And that sort of summarizes my thinking in terms of how Andersen has been undervalued by the stat monkeys over his tenure here. GAA and SV% are heavily influenced by the D corps, not just the goalie - and when think of the sum of Andersen's work, I remember an awful lot of games that he stole, and precious few that he lost based upon expected saves. For a lot of seasons he's been here, I'd rate Toronto's defence in the bottom 3rd of the league.

I'm not saying that an argument can't be made to move him at this point in his career, but I'm not so sure it can be made based on his performance in the uniform.

I can agree with that. I think the biggest kick against Freddie is that he makes incredible save after save and then let's in the easy one at the worst time. He's a very good goalie on a poor defensive team.

 

[Highlander]

James Reimer.

Reimer needs to play behind a more solid defensive team than the Leafs have been over the last couple years.

And that sort of summarizes my thinking in terms of how Andersen has been undervalued by the stat monkeys over his tenure here. GAA and SV% are heavily influenced by the D corps, not just the goalie - and when think of the sum of Andersen's work, I remember an awful lot of games that he stole, and precious few that he lost based upon expected saves. For a lot of seasons he's been here, I'd rate Toronto's defence in the bottom 3rd of the league.

I'm not saying that an argument can't be made to move him at this point in his career, but I'm not so sure it can be made based on his performance in the uniform.

I can agree with that. I think the biggest kick against Freddie is that he makes incredible save after save and then let's in the easy one at the worst time. He's a very good goalie on a poor defensive team.

Freddie is very good on a bad defensive team, and totally agreed on the last posts, he can steal a game and then let in a real blooper, not fatal in regular season but you gotta be Stonewall Jackson in the playoffs. So far Freddo has not proven that he can handle that.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I'm certainly willing to say that Freddy's performance for us during our bad defensive seasons was very admirable and not every goalie would be able to do what he did. But here's the thing... we aren't those teams anymore. Andersen put up his worst season with us during easily our best defensive year.

From 16/17 to 18/19 the Leafs ranked 27th in CA/60 (59.36), 31st in SA/60 (32.47), and 29th in xGA/60 (2.43). We were, as everyone will admit, a poor defensive team.

This year though we made pretty considerable improvements in those numbers. Our CA/60 was 55.5, good for 13th in the league. In shots against per 60 we were at 30.82, 18th in the league. And our xGA/60 was 2.32, tied for 17th in the league with Carolina!

But nobody really gave the team credit for any of those improvements because a) it's hard to shake a reputation of being a bad defensive team and b) Andersen's bad play meant we were actually giving up MORE goals as a middle of the pack defensive team than we were when we were a poor defensive team.

This also means that if the team can hold steady on those defensive numbers (or maybe even find a way to improve them a little more), whoever our goalie is next season won't need to stand on his head every night like Andersen did in his first 3 years here.

 

[herman]

Seems to me like we played too much defense.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

Please remember, that a lot of people have attributed a lot of the Leafs struggles this season to Andersen's struggles. Now imagine that all year with a less than goaltender.

Couldn't an argument be made that considering Andersen's struggles this season finding a replacement to improve our 19/20 goaltending shouldn't be too difficult since it's a fairly low bar? I mean he was 26th in save percentage all season. From December 1st and on he was 38th in save percentage with .901 in 31 games. Marcus Hogberg had a better save percentage than that in 23 games since that date and I'd wager 99% of hockey fans have absolutely no idea what team he played for.

Think about that for a second. For the last 60% of the regular season almost every single team had a goalie performing better than the Leafs. A bunch of them had two. The ONLY team that didn't was Vegas, and they went out and got Lehner to solve that problem.

I don't necessarily disagree with any of that. But for the first 40% of the season, the only reason the Leafs were in games was because of Andersen. He outright stole games in the first half of the season. Repeatedly. Despite how poor the team was playing in front of him.
And after Dec 1st, yes his play dipped, but it was highlighted by how poor the team continued to play. Sheldon Keefe honeymoon aside.

But, aside from that, you're not trading Andersen and adding an equal piece defensively. And his 5 million won't buy you a couple defensemen. Plus, you need to find a goalie that in the least can be Andersen. Not Andersen from last year behind a horrible defensive team, but Andersen at his best. Because without any 'real' upgrade at defence and a much better Andersen at his best level this team is going nowhere.

No, I don't consider him in the top 5 goalies in the league, but I would put him in some where around the top 10. Is that good enough to win a cup? Probably not. But, I'd rather stick with the goalie we know and what he can be, then be hoping for a "pretty good goalie" to somehow make this team better. It doesn't. And it won't. Moving Andersen for a less than goalie, immediately makes the team worse.

Now, if the Leafs stink again next season and Andersen is playing half decent(upping his value), I would happily move him at the trade deadline.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

While he's not signed long term, I'd consider Andersen a "core" piece.

I'd define a core piece as someone who is going to be around for the long-term, and, regardless of his contract status, I don't believe that to be true of Andersen. Goalies who are 30+ just can't really be relied upon that way. When goalies start to approach the end of their careers, they tend to go off the rails fairly quickly and fairly sharply. A fraction of a section less in reaction time can be all the difference, and we all start to see slight reductions in our ability to react quickly once we get into our 30s. It's generally a minute, imperceptible difference - and, for the overwhelming majority of us, it's a non-issue, but for NHL goalies, it's often the beginning of the end. I don't think it's a coincidence that the only goalies who came into the year 30+ years old to start 40 or more games this season who didn't have had a poor season compared to the bulk of their careers were Bishop, Rask, and Bernier.

I suppose I was thinking of it in a different way. I was thinking more of the pieces that if you remove them, you become worse.

 

[Phileas Fogg]

This year though we made pretty considerable improvements in those numbers. Our CA/60 was 55.5, good for 13th in the league. In shots against per 60 we were at 30.82, 18th in the league. And our xGA/60 was 2.32, tied for 17th in the league with Carolina!

I'm admittedly out of my depth with some of these stats, but when I look at HDCA (High danger chances against), the Leafs are 6th worst in the league this season. However, Freddy's HDSV% is 9th best. Doesn't that indicate he's being hung out to dry, like most seasons?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

This year though we made pretty considerable improvements in those numbers. Our CA/60 was 55.5, good for 13th in the league. In shots against per 60 we were at 30.82, 18th in the league. And our xGA/60 was 2.32, tied for 17th in the league with Carolina!

I'm admittedly out of my depth with some of these stats, but when I look at HDCA (High danger chances against), the Leafs are 6th worst in the league this season. However, Freddy's HDSV% is 9th best. Doesn't that indicate he's being hung out to dry, like most seasons?

6th worst in raw counts but generally speaking those stats are best used as a per 60 rate since total 5-on-5 ice times can vary pretty widely between teams. At a per 60 rate they were 11th worst. Not great sure, but hey could be worse. I also generally put more stock in those other stats since there's a larger sample to look at with them and sometimes they don't seem super reflective of a teams defensive strength. For instance in 16/17 the Leafs had the 3rd highest CA/60 and the 3rd worst xGA/60 but just the 17th highest HDCA/60. There were similiar-ish trends in 17/18 and 18/19 as well. I just think there's 3 years of things like CA/60 and xGA/60 accurately portraying the Leafs are a bad defensive team so when there's pretty noticeable improvements in those specific stats I think that means something.

As for Freddy's HDSV%, I'd have to ask how you got to Freddy coming in 9th. According to NST among goalies who played 1000 5-on-5 minutes he's 40th among 54 goalies.

 

[Zee]

I'm no stats guy, but generally speaking goalies don't get better after age 31. The fact that Freddie would also want a raise from $5M is a no brainer for the Leafs to go and try someone younger and hopefully cheaper.

 

[ZBBM]

I'm no stats guy, but generally speaking goalies don't get better after age 31. The fact that Freddie would also want a raise from $5M is a no brainer for the Leafs to go and try someone younger and hopefully cheaper.

That would be one the of their excellent goalie prospects that they draBOOM

 

[Highlander]

I heard the Zamboni guy is available, G.A.A. 2 per game.