Which Leafs will Be Named All-Stars ?
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herman said:
When you pro-rate the first year cap hit of 10,277,778 to the portion of the season that he is on the roster, it ends up at 6,962,366 which is the same cap hit as years 2-6. This is why the first year full year cap hit is higher in year one for contracts signed after the beginning of the season, so when you pro-rate the first year, the actual amount charged to the cap hit is equal for all years of the contract. The higher full year cap hit in year one offsets any accumulation of cap savings for the portion of the year that a player misses.
So even if he signed prior to the start of the season, the only way that his salary would count for more against this year's cap is if the AAV of the contract was higher than 6,962,366 or 41,774,196/6. I don't think the Leafs were offering anything higher than that prior to the season.
Phileas Fogg
New member
herman
Well-known member
Deebo said:
Yeah, I do understand that aspect (I think), but I'm talking more about the daily cap hit rather than the annual numbers, strictly for this season. I'm pretty sure we're talking about those two different aspects, right?
For the first two months, there was additional space that Nylander wasn't occupying and that is accumulated; every day we don't spend to the pro-rated max daily cap hit the space adds up. Those unspent cap dollars goes towards deadline space and paying off performance bonuses (which is more than likely to only be Matthews' and Marner's anyway).
We have a deadline projection of ~24M virtual AAV to play with after adding Nylander's deal. In theory, that lets us add a McDavid-level cap hit (or two) at the deadline. If we did that (haha), it'd probably impinge on our ability to pay off performance bonuses this season and it'd roll over, but there aren't too many 10M+ rentals to worry about. Panarin or Karlsson though?
herman said:
Not quite, I get where you are coming from but the daily cap hit for the first year of an RFA multi year contract signed part way through a year carries a higher daily cap hit for year one than the rest of the years.
Nylander ulitmatley signed a contract that paid him 41,774,196 over 6 years.
The daily cap hit of a contract signed prior to the season that pays 41,774,196 over 6 years would be 37,432.08.
Due to the first year annual cap hit being higher in year 1, the daily cap hit for year 1 of a contract signed when Nylander signed that pays 41,774,196 over 6 years is 55,256.87.
37,432.08 x 186 days = 6,962,366.88
55,256.87 x 126 days (the number of days that Nylander is on the Leafs roster this season) = 6,962,366.88
Rounding may cause slight diffrences, but the concept is sound.
So, if he signed a contract that paid him the same amount as he ended up signing for prior to the season, then the amount charged to the cap in year one (and all subsquent year) would be same as if he signed when he did.
Basically, Nylander signing late had no impact on the leafs cap for this season.
herman
Well-known member
Okay it took me a few days and sleeps to wrap my head around it but I now understand, Deebo. Thanks for walking me through it! Dang pro-rated equivalencies and that fancy RFA late signing formula. Barring a removal from the roster it really does come down to the dollars spent at the end of the year.
ZBBM
Active member
It's good to know that Deebo is, in real life, Brandon Pridham. I long suspected it.
My real identity, you may wonder?
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/f/f8/Internet_dog.jpg/220px-Internet_dog.jpg
My real identity, you may wonder?
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/f/f8/Internet_dog.jpg/220px-Internet_dog.jpg
herman
Well-known member
Atlantic Division: 6F, 3D, 2G, each team needs 1 minimum rep.
Jonas Siegel recently performed this exercise:
https://theathletic.com/737721/2018/12/31/with-space-limited-how-many-maple-leafs-can-realistically-go-to-the-all-star-game/
Deserving/Interesting/Default Candidates according to me with no look ups because it's the holiday and I'm lazy:
Boston: Pastrnak, McAvoy, Halak
Buffalo: Eichel
Florida: Barkov
Montreal: Price
Ottawa: Chabot, Stone, Tkachuk
Tampa: Vasilevskiy, Kucherov, Point, Stamkos, Hedman
Toronto: Matthews, Marner, Rielly, Andersen, Tavares
Let's get the obvious ones slotted in:
Price isn't exactly deserving, but it's name recognition and Montreal doesn't have much else going for it being a plucky 0-star team (Weber? Is it worth the possibility of killing someone at an exhibition money grab show?). Buffalo has star power (Eichel, Skinner, Dahlin) but you can't say the non-Eichels are standing head and shoulders above the rest in their categories.
Defense slots are not super tightly contested, and since we're looking for high scoring razzle-dazzle at the ASG, I'm just going to go with young, exciting, scoring D.
Goaltenders, there are really only two actually deserving candidates (Teams that start with T), but the participation ribbon rule sort of dictates what happens here; since I'd be loathe to send Montreal's equivalent of Leo Komarov, Price is the default there, and that hamstrings Andersen's All-Star bid.
Now I have to fill out the most tightly contested category with 3 spots left and all teams already represented, making this part more of a meritocracy. The razzle-dazzlers left on the board are: Pastrnak, Kucherov, Point, Stamkos, Marner, Tavares, which if we're being honest, is in and of itself already an All Star lineup. Alas, only 3 will be called. Factor in that the NHL wants scoring and also American eyeballs from places where ice doesn't exist in nature...
Ultimately, I took the kids over the two 1st over alls who have been ASG mainstays and Marner over Pastrnak so the NHL can avoid being yelled at by the Toronto fanbase (specifically, Paul) and so they can sport these three lines:
Matthews - Marner - Rielly
Point - Kucherov - Chabot
Eichel - Barkov - McAvoy
Jonas Siegel recently performed this exercise:
https://theathletic.com/737721/2018/12/31/with-space-limited-how-many-maple-leafs-can-realistically-go-to-the-all-star-game/
Deserving/Interesting/Default Candidates according to me with no look ups because it's the holiday and I'm lazy:
Boston: Pastrnak, McAvoy, Halak
Buffalo: Eichel
Florida: Barkov
Montreal: Price
Ottawa: Chabot, Stone, Tkachuk
Tampa: Vasilevskiy, Kucherov, Point, Stamkos, Hedman
Toronto: Matthews, Marner, Rielly, Andersen, Tavares
Let's get the obvious ones slotted in:
F1: Matthews, TOR F2: Eichel, BUF F3: Barkov, FLA F4: F5: F6: | D1: D2: D3: | G1: Price, MTL G2: |
Price isn't exactly deserving, but it's name recognition and Montreal doesn't have much else going for it being a plucky 0-star team (Weber? Is it worth the possibility of killing someone at an exhibition money grab show?). Buffalo has star power (Eichel, Skinner, Dahlin) but you can't say the non-Eichels are standing head and shoulders above the rest in their categories.
Defense slots are not super tightly contested, and since we're looking for high scoring razzle-dazzle at the ASG, I'm just going to go with young, exciting, scoring D.
Goaltenders, there are really only two actually deserving candidates (Teams that start with T), but the participation ribbon rule sort of dictates what happens here; since I'd be loathe to send Montreal's equivalent of Leo Komarov, Price is the default there, and that hamstrings Andersen's All-Star bid.
F1: Matthews, TOR F2: Eichel, BUF F3: Barkov, FLA F4: F5: F6: | D1: Rielly, TOR D2: Chabot, OTT D3: McAvoy, BOS | G1: Price, MTL G2: Vasilevskiy, TBL |
Now I have to fill out the most tightly contested category with 3 spots left and all teams already represented, making this part more of a meritocracy. The razzle-dazzlers left on the board are: Pastrnak, Kucherov, Point, Stamkos, Marner, Tavares, which if we're being honest, is in and of itself already an All Star lineup. Alas, only 3 will be called. Factor in that the NHL wants scoring and also American eyeballs from places where ice doesn't exist in nature...
F1: Matthews, TOR F2: Eichel, BUF F3: Barkov, FLA F4: Point, TBL F5: Kucherov, TBL F6: Marner, TOR | D1: Rielly, TOR D2: Chabot, OTT D3: McAvoy, BOS | G1: Price, MTL G2: Vasilevskiy, TBL |
Ultimately, I took the kids over the two 1st over alls who have been ASG mainstays and Marner over Pastrnak so the NHL can avoid being yelled at by the Toronto fanbase (specifically, Paul) and so they can sport these three lines:
Matthews - Marner - Rielly
Point - Kucherov - Chabot
Eichel - Barkov - McAvoy
Bravo for forgetting that Detroit exists.
Here's my prediction for the Atlantic. Chris Johnson said that the league wants to include all of the top 10-15 scorers in the league at the time of the announcement. For our division that includes Kucherov (1st), Marner (6th), Point (7th), Eichel (12th), Pastrnak (13th). I'll consider them all locks.
Rielly leads all defencemen in points and Chabot is 3rd. I'd consider both of them locks. Problem for Chabot is he was recently injured, and is expected to be out for 3 weeks. That puts his return right around the All-Star game, so that's going to be a tough decision to make. If they name him to the team and he isn't recovered in time, Ottawa would have to send their next best defenceman. Cody Ceci? Maxime Lajoie? I think that they probably name him to the team but immediately say he's being replaced because of injury by Ottawa's next most suitable player. *checks their goalies*... yeah so that's going to be a forward. Stone or Duchene it is.
So that gives us the following locks:
TB: Kucherov, Point
TOR: Matthews, Rielly
BUF: Eichel
MTL:
BOS: Pastrnak
FLA:
DET:
OTT: Stone
So we've got 3 teams that still need representatives. Let's start with Detroit. I think this one comes down to Larkin or Howard. I think they probably go goalie here so that they can get more talented players up front. Florida. Both their goalies are somehow below .900 Sv% so that's out. It'll be one of Huberdeau, Barkov, or Yandle. Huberdeau and Barkov are 8th and 14th in the Atlantic in points. Yandle is 3rd among Atlantic division in points, likely 2nd soon once he passes the injured Chabot. So like Detroit I think they keep a spot open for a better forward and give it to Yandle. Now onto Montreal. Price's .904 Sv% isn't going to cut it at all, even if he does have the big name. So this one comes down to Domi or Petry. This is sorta like Detroit and Florida. Do they take the leading scorer on the team or give it to the defenceman to open up a spot for a better forward on another team? I think they lean defenceman again. Petry's 4th among defencemen in the Atlantic, on pace for 59 points.
edit: after I wrote all this I realized that all the forward spots are taken anyway now. Sorry, Larkin/Barkov/Domi.
Here's where we're at now (thanks to herm for the table):
One spot open. Vasilevskiy or Andersen in net. Both deserving, could go either way.
Rielly leads all defencemen in points and Chabot is 3rd. I'd consider both of them locks. Problem for Chabot is he was recently injured, and is expected to be out for 3 weeks. That puts his return right around the All-Star game, so that's going to be a tough decision to make. If they name him to the team and he isn't recovered in time, Ottawa would have to send their next best defenceman. Cody Ceci? Maxime Lajoie? I think that they probably name him to the team but immediately say he's being replaced because of injury by Ottawa's next most suitable player. *checks their goalies*... yeah so that's going to be a forward. Stone or Duchene it is.
So that gives us the following locks:
TB: Kucherov, Point
TOR: Matthews, Rielly
BUF: Eichel
MTL:
BOS: Pastrnak
FLA:
DET:
OTT: Stone
So we've got 3 teams that still need representatives. Let's start with Detroit. I think this one comes down to Larkin or Howard. I think they probably go goalie here so that they can get more talented players up front. Florida. Both their goalies are somehow below .900 Sv% so that's out. It'll be one of Huberdeau, Barkov, or Yandle. Huberdeau and Barkov are 8th and 14th in the Atlantic in points. Yandle is 3rd among Atlantic division in points, likely 2nd soon once he passes the injured Chabot. So like Detroit I think they keep a spot open for a better forward and give it to Yandle. Now onto Montreal. Price's .904 Sv% isn't going to cut it at all, even if he does have the big name. So this one comes down to Domi or Petry. This is sorta like Detroit and Florida. Do they take the leading scorer on the team or give it to the defenceman to open up a spot for a better forward on another team? I think they lean defenceman again. Petry's 4th among defencemen in the Atlantic, on pace for 59 points.
edit: after I wrote all this I realized that all the forward spots are taken anyway now. Sorry, Larkin/Barkov/Domi.
Here's where we're at now (thanks to herm for the table):
F1: Matthews, TOR F2: Marner, TOR F3: Kucherov, TB F4: Point, TB F5: Eichel, BUF F6: Stone, OTT | D1: Rielly, TOR D2: Yandle, FLA D3: Petry, MTL | G1: Howard, DET G2: |
One spot open. Vasilevskiy or Andersen in net. Both deserving, could go either way.
Phileas Fogg
New member
Not to throw darts, but that's a lot of analysis for a spectacularly uninteresting and inconsequential event.
Kin
New member
Frycer14 said:
The game itself is uninteresting and inconsequential. Who is or isn't an all-star is kind of interesting only because for so long those rosters were a pretty good snapshot of who was important in the league and it carried a certain degree of real status.
The one guy per team thing has sort of killed that though, even with 44 guys getting the nod.
herman said:
Darnit haha. Yeah I really don't know how to fix that without booting Marner off the team.
I guess they could make an exception for having the top-15 scorers and use Halak for Boston instead of Pasta. He does have the 2nd best save percentage in the league.
https://twitter.com/FriedgeHNIC/status/1080608532796338176
Surprised Tavares got the nod over Marner. Oh well, maybe that'll help in contract negotiations.
Each team is going to have 1 spot open that the fans again vote someone in for. The Atlantic obviously has a D spot open so Rielly should be getting voted in there.
Rest of the team isn't too surprising. Like I said before if Chabot isn't healthy that could cause an issue with who Ottawa sends as a replacement. Surprised to see Stamkos over Point. Price did indeed get the nod despite having a pretty mediocre season.
Surprised Tavares got the nod over Marner. Oh well, maybe that'll help in contract negotiations.
Each team is going to have 1 spot open that the fans again vote someone in for. The Atlantic obviously has a D spot open so Rielly should be getting voted in there.
Rest of the team isn't too surprising. Like I said before if Chabot isn't healthy that could cause an issue with who Ottawa sends as a replacement. Surprised to see Stamkos over Point. Price did indeed get the nod despite having a pretty mediocre season.
Paul is probably freaking out right now.
bustaheims
Active member
Atlantic is a tough division in this format. Could probably make two pretty good teams with all the talent.