Wild @ Leafs - Oct. 15th, 7:00pm - SN, TSN 1050

[Bender]

Yeah they limited them to just two clear cut breakaways.

It doesn't show the limitation of shot chances as a proxy for winning because no one advocates using it in such a limited scope and without context anyways.  It's still better to dominate possession, and until NHL tracks zone time again, this is a good proxy for it.  Over time, it is better to be good than bad at it.

Games ending up like this don't change that.  Glad they won and cheered them the whole way doing it, but it's still a dangerous way to play consistently.

It is, but a good puck possession game doesn't mean you have high quality chances. Sometimes it just means you're good at keep away until the puck goes in the other way.

The Wild remind me of the Leafs under RW (granted the goaltending here is far superior). How many times did we outshoot the opponent only to lose 3-1 or 4-2?

 

[princedpw]

I only saw the end but to judge from the GDT and SOG we leaned heavily on Reimer.  azzurri's got a point, you can't keep going on getting outshot 3x1 and expect your IMMENSE AND UNREMITTING LUCK to save you. 

I feel though that this was a game that sort of revealed the shortcomings of Corsi while kind of reinforcing the sort of inarguable point that it's based on. I feel like the Leafs did a really good job of limiting the number of dangerous chances that the Wild had, shot totals aside, and had some opportunities where they looked pretty dangerous that didn't result in a shot total that might reflect that.

Obviously the central tenet of having puck possession and outshooting your opponent will have a correlation to winning hockey games most of the time but a night like tonight just makes me think that it's not anywhere near to a precise enough measurement to really be useful.

But no advanced stats advocate would suggest using Corsi to predict (with much certainty) the outcome of an individual game.  It is just that over the long haul, Corsi seems better than most of the other alternates for predicting outcomes.

 

[Kin]

But no advanced stats advocate would suggest using Corsi to predict (with much certainty) the outcome of an individual game.  It is just that over the long haul, Corsi seems better than most of the other alternates for predicting outcomes.

Right. But if the dialog that centred around Corsi was "in a team context a positive one is good" then I'd have no problem with it. I mean, I might question it's relative value vs. say just a simple shots for and shots against or an actual measurement of possession but like I said, and what has been glossed over a bit by the people who responded to that comment, is that it is based on an inarguable truth.

Where, to me, it becomes problematic is that contrary to statements otherwise I wouldn't say that the tenor of the discussion concerning it's use has been as diplomatic as "this is an imprecise measurement but in place of a better one it is useful as a consideration to determine a hockey team's overall effectiveness" and the trying to whittle it down into an individual statistic.

A reference was made to the breakaways tonight but neither breakaway had anything to do with a team breakdown. They were, depending on how charitable you want to be, either big mistakes by or bad bounces to Kessel and Phaneuf. That happens to everyone. But something that measures what happens simply when a player is on the ice would count that against everyone who was on the ice at the time. That's not a small flaw.  That's not something that can be written off as equaling out in the aggregate no matter how repeatable a number might be. It's the exact same problem with +/- which, to me, makes it kind of a lousy proxy for what we actually want to be measuring(which, I assume, is the general effectiveness of a player when he's on the ice).

My point, and I may have phrased this poorly but I felt it worth mentioning because it does seem like a lot of the narrative of this year's Maple Leafs team is going to be tied up in these things, wasn't "this proves X stat useless" but rather that it highlighted its flaws(it doesn't accurately measure the play) while at the same time reaffirming things that nobody would argue(you want to outshoot your opponent and nobody wants to rely too heavily on their goaltender). 

 

[hockeyfan1]

Very classy by Phil.

That right there was a sign of character and respect. It was a subtle move, but it means a lot.

I liked that.  Shows character & class.  Great qualities to have (along with plenty of talent) for any player, but it's extra special 'cause he's a Leaf! 

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Kadri killed penalties? I might have to scan through the game just for those few shifts alone.

 

[Corn Flake]

this reminds me a lot of when people used to say .."the leafs only win because they have cujo"  ...well..you know what...i'm okay with that...i welcome our new team with two cujos

I can only think of a very small handful of teams over the years that have won without having top end goaltending solidifying the team.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

I expected a closer game, but the Leafs, despite the shots against, pulled yet another win out.

With a depleted line-up, the Leafs are still playing at a decent level. I can't figure out whether it's because of all of them buying into and executing the system or a reflection of our depth in all positions. Maybe a combination of both?

Rielly was again better than last game, this kid improves by the hour. It will be hard for Nonis to send him anywhere, but to the realtor to find a condo.

Reimer was real good, as expected. I thought Leivo was strong, for a rookie and appears to be a good player. Classy move by Kessel on the last goal, to give Raymond the spotlight he deserves, a million bucks for him is a huge bargain.

 

[Omallley]

Classy move by Kessel on the last goal, to give Raymond the spotlight he deserves, a million bucks for him is a huge bargain.

He definitely has a chance to be this year's MacArthur. He's certainly looking like the 50+ point Raymond from a few years ago moreso than the one that was in Vignault (and the fan's) doghouse over the last couple seasons...

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

Classy move by Kessel on the last goal, to give Raymond the spotlight he deserves, a million bucks for him is a huge bargain.

He definitely has a chance to be this year's MacArthur. He's certainly looking like the 50+ point Raymond from a few years ago moreso than the one that was in Vignault (and the fan's) doghouse over the last couple seasons...

I'm not sure what went on there, but I've always liked what I've seen for this guy, he's fun to watch. He goes all out and seems to have a lot of fun playing hockey.

I definitely agree that he's this years "MacArthur", or at least he's well on his way to being.