Zaitsev's extension made official

[Kin]

Why not give him a "show me" deal like what they did with Kadri?  That way they could cut bait in two years if things don't pan out. 

Zaitsev has a year until he's a UFA. If he didn't get a deal with long term security he could just sign a one year deal in the KHL and then explore free agency.

The Leafs don't have any good or obvious paths to replacing him so unless they were willing to go without him next year they had to effectively deal with him as if he were a free agent.

 

[Kin]

Here's what I don't get about not liking this deal primarily because of the length:

Imagine if the Leafs defense were as it's currently constituted only without Zaitsev. Now imagine that a 28 year old defenseman of Zaitsev's ability were available as a UFA for 5 years/22.5 million. Would you want the Leafs to sign that player?

If the answer is no then surely the issue with Zaitsev is how comfortable you are with him being a long term part of the top 4 regardless of his contract. If the answer is yes, then how can it be worse that the Leafs get his age 26 and 27 years as well?

 

[Bullfrog]

He can be sent packing to KHL  with no cap hit when he outlives his usefulness

Sent from my SM-G935W8 using Tapatalk

No, he can't be sent there. He can choose to go there.

 

[herman]

The deal CSKA had on the table for him was rumoured to be 12M USD over two years. It would have made him eligible for the Olympics as well.

For reference, Kovalchuk and Datsyuk are in the 4-5M AAV tier.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I don't know enough about the minutae of this aggregate stat to say one way or the other, but looking at the component scores (at least on the Leafs, and at the top of the table), it matches my general sense for the most part.

Just a very minor tidbit, but I'm guessing you didn't look much at the Leafs' forward section of this stat

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Here's what I don't get about not liking this deal primarily because of the length:

Imagine if the Leafs defense were as it's currently constituted only without Zaitsev. Now imagine that a 28 year old defenseman of Zaitsev's ability were available as a UFA for 5 years/22.5 million. Would you want the Leafs to sign that player?

If the answer is no then surely the issue with Zaitsev is how comfortable you are with him being a long term part of the top 4 regardless of his contract. If the answer is yes, then how can it be worse that the Leafs get his age 26 and 27 years as well?

I feel like I've talked myself into liking this deal less and less the more I think about it. And I think it's largely because of this reason. I just don't think that we really know what Zaitsev is yet. We keep talking about him as a top-4 defenceman but he was basically gifted that top RD spot solely because the guys behind him him were all 3rd pairing defencemen. He never really had to earn it in any way. And a lot of the stats out there show that his play never came close to justifying it. But again, there weren't any other options so he stayed there all season long. Giving him a contract comparable to other top-4 defencemen now seems like giving Stajan or Poni a contract comparable to other top-6 forwards back in those days. Those 2 played those types of minutes but never really earned them.

Anyway, I think the word you brought up is really appropriate for me. I'm just not comfortable with Zaitsev being in the teams long-term plans right now. Especially at that cap hit. The reward just doesn't seem worth the risk to me.

The Leafs don't have any good or obvious paths to replacing him so unless they were willing to go without him next year they had to effectively deal with him as if he were a free agent.

I get that these two situations aren't the same since there's a pretty big difference in the cap hits, but I remember saying basically this exact same thing to justify Dion Phaneuf's contract originally. "We had to sign it, what would we do without him?".

 

[herman]

I don't know enough about the minutae of this aggregate stat to say one way or the other, but looking at the component scores (at least on the Leafs, and at the top of the table), it matches my general sense for the most part.

Just a very minor tidbit, but I'm guessing you didn't look much at the Leafs' forward section of this stat

I did but didn't really draw much from it. With so many rookies, the historical adjustment leaned towards average rookie stats. Like I said, Zaitsev might've been skewed up as a result.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

The deal CSKA had on the table for him was rumoured to be 12M USD over two years. It would have made him eligible for the Olympics as well.

For reference, Kovalchuk and Datsyuk are in the 4-5M AAV tier.

"Reports out of Russia" is a phrase that never really held much merit to me, and recent events haven't exactly helped that.

The Las Vegas Knights yesterday signed Vadim Shipachyov to a 2-year deal with a cap hit of $4.5mil. He was one of the KHL's best players. He certainly took a pretty big pay cut on a short-term and a spot on Russia's Olympic team to play in the NHL. When Radulov signed with the Canadiens last year there were also reports that he left a lot of money on the table with a KHL team. He's a free agent come July 1st and will probably be staying in the NHL. Evgeny Dadonov is another big name Russian player who is apparently pursuing a NHL contract for next season, again leaving KHL money and Olympic dreams on the table. And of course the league's biggest star, Ilya Kovalchuk, is rumoured to be looking to return next season too.

The KHL is becoming a dump. Save for a small handful of teams everyone there is broke. Including Zaitsev and Panarin that's 6 very high profile players who either left in the past year or might be. I don't really buy the league being that much of a threat in contract negotiations. And while I know we've backed off the whole "Lou is the Godfather" stuff I can't see him blinking if Zaitsev's agent tried to play that card.

 

[herman]

"Reports out of Russia" is a phrase that never really held much merit to me, and recent events haven't exactly helped that.

The Las Vegas Knights yesterday signed Vadim Shipachyov to a 2-year deal with a cap hit of $4.5mil. He was one of the KHL's best players. He certainly took a pretty big pay cut on a short-term and a spot on Russia's Olympic team to play in the NHL. When Radulov signed with the Canadiens last year there were also reports that he left a lot of money on the table with a KHL team. He's a free agent come July 1st and will probably be staying in the NHL. Evgeny Dadonov is another big name Russian player who is apparently pursuing a NHL contract for next season, again leaving KHL money and Olympic dreams on the table. And of course the league's biggest star, Ilya Kovalchuk, is rumoured to be looking to return next season too.

The KHL is becoming a dump. Save for a small handful of teams everyone there is broke. Including Zaitsev and Panarin that's 6 very high profile players who either left in the past year or might be. I don't really buy the league being that much of a threat in contract negotiations. And while I know we've backed off the whole "Lou is the Godfather" stuff I can't see him blinking if Zaitsev's agent tried to play that card.

Going by what Zaitsev has said publically, I don't think the KHL was ever a true consideration for him this off season. Some of that might be public posturing, granted, but it seems to me that Zaitsev pursued us as much as we did him.

I think the contract is in no small part payment for the year of what was essentially an internship. It smears out to 4Mish over 8 years, half of them in the prime plateau years (for the average defenseman), and he has options back home at any point that it stops working out here.

https://twitter.com/ChartingHockey/status/860261188529045504
www.twitter.com/ChartingHockey/status/860261188529045504

 

[Kin]

I get that these two situations aren't the same since there's a pretty big difference in the cap hits, but I remember saying basically this exact same thing to justify Dion Phaneuf's contract originally. "We had to sign it, what would we do without him?".

I actually think that's a very apt comparison because I think just like here there's a line between a fair criticism("I wouldn't have signed this player at all") and an unfair one("I wanted the team to sign him and would have been upset if they didn't but I wanted it at much more favourable terms").

I'm in no ways a "they're in charge, they know what they're doing" guy because I know even good management makes bad decisions but I at least give them the credit that they know what it would take to sign Zaitsev.

 

[ZBBM]

Ah screw all this "analysis," "projections," and latter-day Kremlinology -- I call Bustsev and there's an end on it.

 

[Bullfrog]

Agreed. I'm usually a skeptic and want to see the stats and analysis. But in this case, I'm going with my gut and my gut has a warm, fuzzy feeling about this signing.

I know the stats don't look great, but I was impressed with his play.

 

[Highlander]

Its a good signing, we got a 3-4 D man for nothing in the first place. Hope we can poach Yakusev type from the KHL.

 

[gunnar36]

I like the deal.  Sure a 7 year term is a bit of a gamble, but so is a 2 year term and him overachieving and deserving far more then 4.5 per.  One thing is for sure, his skating and mobility are elite which will allow him to be a very effective dman thru the duration of contact.

 

[Kin]

I don't think his skating and mobility is elite. I don't think it's even as good as Gardiner or Rielly.

 

[Andy007]

IMO Zaitsev was the Leafs' most consistent defenseman all season. He skates and moves the puck well (elite? Yea, not really), should sit around the 40 point range and can play a strong physical game if need be. I like this deal a lot. 7 years seems a bit high, if not unnecessary, but he's 32 at the end of this deal and really, it's not like this team has an abundance of capable defensemen (let alone, at worst, a quality 2nd pairing one).

 

[herman]

Zaitsev interview more properly translated:
http://thehockeywriters.com/nikita-zaitsev-happy-with-new-maple-leafs-contract/

He might be the funniest Leaf.

Also:

AS: You mostly didn?t shoot, but dump(ed) the puck in.

NZ: The fact is that you don?t have much time to get a good shot. Yes, I understand what you?re trying to say, but we had another plan to get the puck close to the crease faster, and it didn?t include shots from the point.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Little thing but I thought this was kind of interesting since I never heard it before:

NZ: There were some rumors according to which a player was sent down to the AHL because he was always in (a) bad mood. Someone may get to you, ask what?s going on and maybe send you down. The point is that the board of the team considers the team as a family, and you should be happy to be part of it. You should enjoy your job.

Talking about Michalek I guess? Nobody else who made the team out of training camp was really sent down to the Marlies.

 

[herman]

Little thing but I thought this was kind of interesting since I never heard it before:

NZ: There were some rumors according to which a player was sent down to the AHL because he was always in (a) bad mood. Someone may get to you, ask what?s going on and maybe send you down. The point is that the board of the team considers the team as a family, and you should be happy to be part of it. You should enjoy your job.

Talking about Michalek I guess? Nobody else who made the team out of training camp was really sent down to the Marlies.

I was thinking Corrado actually, but Michalek makes more sense. Corrado always looked more lost than surly.

His second sentence was pretty KGB.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I was thinking Corrado actually, but Michalek makes more sense. Corrado always looked more lost than surly.

His second sentence was pretty KGB.

I genuinely forgot about Corrado, but yeah that would make sense too of course.