2015 NHL Entry Draft

[Al14]

I also agree, except how do you define best player available? The player with the highest potential or the player with a high potential and the greatest chance of meeting that potential?

I lean towards the first. Go for the highest potential period. All draft picks are risks. TMLs need some homeruns.

The best player available has to have been evaluated to possess high levels of individual skills, such as elite skating, stick handling, passing, and shooting.  They should also possess the ability to position themselves well, and, be able to handle body contact effectively.

Not only should the physical attributes be apparent, the BPA should also be highly rated when it comes to his ability to effectively communicate with teammates, effectively interact and respond to coaches, and, be respectful of game officials.

So, the BPA must have a complete set of physical hockey skills, the intelligence to use them, as well, they must possess good character, on and off the ice.

The best player available will be the highest rated player left at the top of the team's scouting department list.

 

[Kin]

So, the BPA must have a complete set of physical hockey skills, the intelligence to use them, as well, they must possess good character, on and off the ice.

Right but I think the question was more about how if you're picking outside of the top 2 or 3 in most drafts you're going to be picking prospects who have deficiencies and how to weigh those deficiencies. The same is true this year. Marner has high offensive upside but isn't said to be the most physical/defensive player, Crouse apparently has those things but not the offensive upside.

Players taken at 6 or 7 aren't going to have it all, even if they're the best available.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I also agree, except how do you define best player available? The player with the highest potential or the player with a high potential and the greatest chance of meeting that potential?

Or is it defined by the player with the best chance to earn you wins in the NHL? I'm a firm believer that the centre ice position is the most important in hockey. Unless there's a clear-cut edge between the two players, I break the tie by going with the centre.

Also to add - Corey Pronman just did an article today for ESPN Insiders that basically says if the choice is between a forward or a D you should draft the forward because forwards generally impact the game at 5 on 5 much more than D do.  I thought it was an interesting read.

 

[Frank E]

If I'm a GM of a team like Edmonton, I think it's pretty tough to ignore the defense holes (assuming they have them) when I'm drafting in the top 5.  My BPA would definitely be influenced by this.

And the BPA is a pretty subjective thing anyways, right?  I mean even the so-called experts have a different 3-10.

 

[Kin]

If I'm a GM of a team like Edmonton, I think it's pretty tough to ignore the defense holes (assuming they have them) when I'm drafting in the top 5.  My BPA would definitely be influenced by this.

Yeah, I actually think a pretty compelling case for why Edmonton is as bad as they are is that they ignored trying to collect a diverse range of talents/positions with their top picks.

That said, I think the idea is more that when you're dealing with prospects they tend to sort of fall into tiers where there are clear drop-offs. I think the general idea is that you shouldn't take a player from a lower tier over a widely acknowledged better prospect because of their position. The easy example being the Leafs, if they pick after Marner/Strome are gone, looking for a center regardless.

 

[Frank E]

If I'm a GM of a team like Edmonton, I think it's pretty tough to ignore the defense holes (assuming they have them) when I'm drafting in the top 5.  My BPA would definitely be influenced by this.

Yeah, I actually think a pretty compelling case for why Edmonton is as bad as they are is that they ignored trying to collect a diverse range of talents/positions with their top picks.

That said, I think the idea is more that when you're dealing with prospects they tend to sort of fall into tiers where there are clear drop-offs. I think the general idea is that you shouldn't take a player from a lower tier over a widely acknowledged better prospect because of their position. The easy example being the Leafs, if they pick after Marner/Strome are gone, looking for a center regardless.

I'm with you on the different tiers, but I don't know who the obvious BPA is after Marner/Strome...and I'm assuming we're picking 6th at this point.

 

[L K]

If I'm a GM of a team like Edmonton, I think it's pretty tough to ignore the defense holes (assuming they have them) when I'm drafting in the top 5.  My BPA would definitely be influenced by this.

Yeah, I actually think a pretty compelling case for why Edmonton is as bad as they are is that they ignored trying to collect a diverse range of talents/positions with their top picks.

That said, I think the idea is more that when you're dealing with prospects they tend to sort of fall into tiers where there are clear drop-offs. I think the general idea is that you shouldn't take a player from a lower tier over a widely acknowledged better prospect because of their position. The easy example being the Leafs, if they pick after Marner/Strome are gone, looking for a center regardless.

I'm with you on the different tiers, but I don't know who the obvious BPA is after Marner/Strome...and I'm assuming we're picking 6th at this point.

I think in the 6-10 range you are most likely looking in the Provorov, Crouse, Barzal, Rantanen, Kylington, even Zacha category.  I think of those guys Provorov would be the best of the bunch (defenseman) but I'm not sure if you are necessarily wrong to draft one of the other guys.  Rantanen certainly looked good at the World Juniors.  Kylington missed out on them due to injury but he arguable would have been Sweden's best defenseman in the tournament.    Zacha has the size to be a top flight center but I think he might be more of an Olli Jokinen level of "#1" guy type of prospect if he pans out. 

To me, aside from mock drafts that are designed to just be click bait, the top 5 is pretty much locked in barring major injuries that could affect a career.  After that there are probably another 7-10 guys who could be drafted with a lot of variability in final position.

 

[mr grieves]

If I'm a GM of a team like Edmonton, I think it's pretty tough to ignore the defense holes (assuming they have them) when I'm drafting in the top 5.  My BPA would definitely be influenced by this.

Yeah, I actually think a pretty compelling case for why Edmonton is as bad as they are is that they ignored trying to collect a diverse range of talents/positions with their top picks.

Just because you should take them, doesn't mean you should keep them.

The BPA could just be the best trade asset you can get at the draft, something that might net a player of similar calibre -- though different strengths and weaknesses -- otherwise unavailable. Doesn't work if you don't trade any of them though.

 

[Frank E]

If I'm a GM of a team like Edmonton, I think it's pretty tough to ignore the defense holes (assuming they have them) when I'm drafting in the top 5.  My BPA would definitely be influenced by this.

Yeah, I actually think a pretty compelling case for why Edmonton is as bad as they are is that they ignored trying to collect a diverse range of talents/positions with their top picks.

Just because you should take them, doesn't mean you should keep them.

The BPA could just be the best trade asset you can get at the draft, something that might net a player of similar calibre -- though different strengths and weaknesses -- otherwise unavailable. Doesn't work if you don't trade any of them though.

Trading of relatively recent top 5 picks that haven't graduated to the NHL doesn't happen very often...I can think of a few reasons why, and they're mostly to do with the optics and bust-risk factors.

 

[Kin]

Just because you should take them, doesn't mean you should keep them.

It's hard for me to think of a situation where it'd be particularly advantageous to draft and trade those players as opposed to just trading the pick at the draft.

 

[Al14]

Just because you should take them, doesn't mean you should keep them.

It's hard for me to think of a situation where it'd be particularly advantageous to draft and trade those players as opposed to just trading the pick at the draft.

The only situation I can think of is when the drafted player indicates strongly that he is unwilling to sign with his draft team.  They won't always reveal prior to the draft that they dislike certain teams drafting them.

 

[L K]

The updated tank races.  Columbus has essentially played themselves out of the bottom 5 so really how the questions remaining are:

Can Arizona outtank Edmonton and Buffalo?
Can the Leafs stay in front of Carolina?

 

[Jolly good show chaps]

Carolina picked up a point last night. Arizona can't win whereas Edmonton have stepped up a bit. Maybe they can even get close to us...

 

[Bender]

Carolina picked up a point last night. Arizona can't win whereas Edmonton have stepped up a bit. Maybe they can even get close to us...

If they do it'll likely go right down to the wire. 7pts back with a game in hand: its possible but its definitely not favourable.

And holy hell Arizona can't buy a win these days, wow.

 

[rdowdall]

Carolina picked up a point last night. Arizona can't win whereas Edmonton have stepped up a bit. Maybe they can even get close to us...

If they do it'll likely go right down to the wire. 7pts back with a game in hand: its possible but its definitely not favourable.

And holy hell Arizona can't buy a win these days, wow.

But when they start, watch out...

 

[Rebel_1812]

Just because you should take them, doesn't mean you should keep them.

It's hard for me to think of a situation where it'd be particularly advantageous to draft and trade those players as opposed to just trading the pick at the draft.

The only situation I can think of is when the drafted player indicates strongly that he is unwilling to sign with his draft team.  They won't always reveal prior to the draft that they dislike certain teams drafting them.

The only situation like that that comes to mind is Lindros.  Quebec got a treasure trove by trading him.

 

[Madferret]

Just because you should take them, doesn't mean you should keep them.

It's hard for me to think of a situation where it'd be particularly advantageous to draft and trade those players as opposed to just trading the pick at the draft.

The only situation I can think of is when the drafted player indicates strongly that he is unwilling to sign with his draft team.  They won't always reveal prior to the draft that they dislike certain teams drafting them.

The only situation like that that comes to mind is Lindros.  Quebec got a treasure trove by trading him.

Berard refused to play for the Sens when he was drafted in '95 so was traded with Straka for Rhodes & Redden. Ended up costing him an eye - the hockey Gods can be so cruel sometimes.

 

[Rebel_1812]

Just because you should take them, doesn't mean you should keep them.

It's hard for me to think of a situation where it'd be particularly advantageous to draft and trade those players as opposed to just trading the pick at the draft.

The only situation I can think of is when the drafted player indicates strongly that he is unwilling to sign with his draft team.  They won't always reveal prior to the draft that they dislike certain teams drafting them.

The only situation like that that comes to mind is Lindros.  Quebec got a treasure trove by trading him.

Berard refused to play for the Sens when he was drafted in '95 so was traded with Straka for Rhodes & Redden. Ended up costing him an eye - the hockey Gods can be so cruel sometimes.

and lindros lost his head.  Karma is a bitch.

 

[L K]

Last game of the OHL regular season.  Dylan Strome came into the game 3 points behind Mitch Marner for the scoring title.  He has a goal in the game so far.  50 minutes to try and get 2-3 more points and get a share/sole possession of the lead.  McDavid is 6 points back and is sitting out the last game.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

McDavid is 6 points back and is sitting out the last game.

Bad character. That might make him drop a few spots in the draft.