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2016 Lead up to the Trade Deadline thread

Frank E said:
Meanwhile in WTF land:

http://www.tsn.ca/kings-trade-d-ehrhoff-to-blackhawks-for-d-scuderi-1.444147
Click to expand...

I wonder if this is a new way for rich teams to manipulate the salary cap. Scuderi becomes a player with a terrible contract that has essentially be shared between three teams. Chicago keeps 1.1 million, Pittsburgh keeps 1.1 million and now LA has him for 1.1 million and can bury him in the minors and get 950k in cap relief.
 
Highlander said:
Wonder what it would take to pry Maroon from the Ducks. I really like the way the kid playz and he is only 27.
Click to expand...

Typically teams at the bottom of the league don't trade for players from playoff teams at the deadline but only because it makes absolutely no sense and is counter productive to what both teams are trying to do.
 
Now CHI getting Weise & Fleischmann from the Habs.  3 trades in 24 hours.  I guess the future is now with a capital N for them.
 
Blues got their goalie:  Edmonton's Nilsson to the Blues for minor league goalie Niklas Lundstrom and 2016 5th round pick.

As per tsn.ca
 
I was thinking the other day, what with the Leafs loading up with late round draft picks - is it possible that due to advances in scouting, analytics, global communication/internet etc etc - that the odds of picking up a "steal" - like a Byfuglien, or a Demitra, or a Gilmour - is less than it was 5 years+ ago?

It would seem to me that back in the day, a talented player could be in an international league somewhere in relative obscurity, while now, there's far more information that would take this type of player from the 4th to the 3rd round, or even higher. I know that there'll still be players that develop slower and surprise with their upside, but in this age of information, surely its a measurably less likely happenstance?
 
McGarnagle said:
I was thinking the other day, what with the Leafs loading up with late round draft picks - is it possible that due to advances in scouting, analytics, global communication/internet etc etc - that the odds of picking up a "steal" - like a Byfuglien, or a Demitra, or a Gilmour - is less than it was 5 years+ ago?

It would seem to me that back in the day, a talented player could be in an international league somewhere in relative obscurity, while now, there's far more information that would take this type of player from the 4th to the 3rd round, or even higher. I know that there'll still be players that develop slower and surprise with their upside, but in this age of information, surely its a measurably less likely happenstance?
Click to expand...

I'd guess that's almost certainly true, it's definitely true if you're going back to a point where European scouting wasn't as complete as it is now, but that the difference isn't all that significant. Like getting a very good player past the 4th round might have dropped from 1% to .5% or something similarly minor.

The thing is that while scouting tends to be better, a lot of the old biases still exist in terms of a player's size or "compete level" or whatever. Gilmour, for instance, wasn't obscure. He was playing in the OHL, he scored 119 points in 67 games, in his draft year. 
 
Nik the Trik said:
The thing is that while scouting tends to be better, a lot of the old biases still exist in terms of a player's size or "compete level" or whatever. Gilmour, for instance, wasn't obscure. He was playing in the OHL, he scored 119 points in 67 games, in his draft year.
Click to expand...

I guess that's my admittedly clumsy argument. Today, Gilmour would no doubt have a full complement of corsi/etc, etc, stats backing up his effectiveness to offset his size-, and despite any remaining old biases in current scouting, if we were to redraft 1982 today, surely most teams would have him in no later than the 2nd round?

I guess my thoughts were jogged by a friend who started pulling late round big name draft successes from the 80s,90s and 00s - and was high on the fact that we could have the same probability of drafting that level of player in the upcoming draft.

 
McGarnagle said:
I guess that's my admittedly clumsy argument. Today, Gilmour would no doubt have a full complement of corsi/etc, etc, stats backing up his effectiveness to offset his size-, and despite any remaining old biases in current scouting, if we were to redraft 1982 today, surely most teams would have him in no later than the 2nd round?

I guess my thoughts were jogged by a friend who started pulling late round big name draft successes from the 80s,90s and 00s - and was high on the fact that we could have the same probability of drafting that level of player in the upcoming draft.
Click to expand...

Well, if you look around the league for the most recent guys who are sort of similar, Johnny Gaudreau comes to mind, then you'll see that it still tends to be players who maybe aren't very big or aren't blindingly fast or whatever.

So while I generally agree with your premise I don't know if it's that absolute. Gilmour may very well fall into the exact same hole.
 
Patrick said:
Frank E said:
Meanwhile in WTF land:

http://www.tsn.ca/kings-trade-d-ehrhoff-to-blackhawks-for-d-scuderi-1.444147
Click to expand...

I wonder if this is a new way for rich teams to manipulate the salary cap. Scuderi becomes a player with a terrible contract that has essentially be shared between three teams. Chicago keeps 1.1 million, Pittsburgh keeps 1.1 million and now LA has him for 1.1 million and can bury him in the minors and get 950k in cap relief.
Click to expand...

Any of you knowledgeable about the cap folks, think this might be something we see more of?

I'd had a few brews when I wrote it, so I might have missed something.
 
http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2016/2/28/11127216/leafs-have-28-picks-through-the-2018-draft

Since this past offseason, we have yielded up only 3 draft picks: 2nd to Pit for Kessel, 3rd to NJ for Lamoriello, 3rd to Det for Babcock.
 
This is something that I think the Reimer thread brought up but I did want to say somethin that I'd said earlier in the year.

If you want the Leafs to rebuild with multiple first round picks, high seconds...it's not going to get done by trading not very good pending UFAs. It's going to get done trading valuable pieces. The pieces they'd be reluctant to trade. Gardiner, JVR, Komarov Kadri. The fact that they're good, that they're the kind of players who could contribute over the next few years, that's what makes them worth those sorts of assets.

If the Leafs don't trade one of those guys tomorrow than odds are they're just going to add small pieces. Mid round picks. Maybe a top 60 pick with Parenteau if they're lucky. Pieces that are nice to have in bulk but unlikely to move the needle.

And, honestly, I think it'll be kind of disappointing. The Leafs could have this sort of season and wind up drafting only twice in the top 40. 3 times in the top 60.

So I'm really hoping at least two of the aforementioned players get dealt before the draft.
 
Nik the Trik said:
And, honestly, I think it'll be kind of disappointing. The Leafs could have this sort of season and wind up drafting only twice in the top 40. 3 times in the top 60.
Click to expand...

Worst-case, yeah. But I think at this point it's still reasonable to expect: TOR 1st, PIT 1st, TOR 2nd, and PAP 2nd. So that's 3 in the top-40 and 4 in the top-60. Dubas could also add an extra selection by trading down with Pittsburgh's pick, bringing the total top-60 picks to 5.

If Pittsburgh misses the playoffs and we don't get as much for PAP as we expected, then maybe I'd look into other avenues for getting some high picks. But I really don't think I'd look too highly on any deals for JVR/Kadri/Gardiner that consist mostly of draft picks though.
 
Nik the Trik said:
If the Leafs don't trade one of those guys tomorrow than odds are they're just going to add small pieces. Mid round picks. Maybe a top 60 pick with Parenteau if they're lucky. Pieces that are nice to have in bulk but unlikely to move the needle.

And, honestly, I think it'll be kind of disappointing. The Leafs could have this sort of season and wind up drafting only twice in the top 40. 3 times in the top 60.
Click to expand...

I get what you're saying, but I don't think tomorrow is the be-all, end-all for those guys - and, I've always felt that the most likely and possibly better time to move those guys is approaching/at the draft. Trade values for guys on good contracts get inflated at that time of the year, and, with teams knowing where their 1st round pick is slotted, they may be more open to moving them.
 
bustaheims said:
I get what you're saying, but I don't think tomorrow is the be-all, end-all for those guys - and, I've always felt that the most likely and possibly better time to move those guys is approaching/at the draft. Trade values for guys on good contracts get inflated at that time of the year, and, with teams knowing where their 1st round pick is slotted, they may be more open to moving them.
Click to expand...

Just to be clear, I may not have phrased it well but I generally agree that you don't need to trade those guys tomorrow. It's why I mentioned trading two of them before the draft.

I think for someone like Komarov, who's having a good year but isn't as dependable a producer, I think his value is probably highest tomorrow but still, not necessary. The point was just that if they don't trade any of those guys there's a very real chance that they don't add a pick in the top 75. 
 
I too prefer a trade of at least one of our bigger pieces for a higher pick. JvR is the prime candidate for me. He can easily headline a deal to pull a pick and prospect back.

Kadri would be my next bet to go. Gardiner might out value any future 1st rounder a team is willing to trade. His playstyle and skill are sustainable and still developing.

Edit: I don't count Komarov in my list of high-end pieces, but he played his way into an early exit this year, for all the best reasons. I hope we can find a suitable deal this year, but it wouldn't bother me if he went at the next deadline either.
 
Sportsnet: If you like shots of men in suits awkwardly standing around with no purpose in front of a video sceen...forget about it. 
 
Nik the Trik said:
Sportsnet: If you like shots of men in suits awkwardly standing around with no purpose in front of a video sceen...forget about it. 
Click to expand...

Remember when they went through their casual "no-ties" phase (albeit this was before they had HNIC)?
 
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