2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion

[Strangelove]

I don't buy the narrative that there is no space to wheel in the playoffs. If you maintain possession and move the puck effectively, you create space to wheel/move. If you chip the puck down the ice (i.e. give the puck away) and are forever trying to get possession back, then you're eliminating that ability to create space. This is all the more pronounced when your team is built to rush the puck, not forecheck, and is clearly undermining the play of guys like Marner.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

As much as I'd like to run and gun all day (e'ryday), that's no more sustainable than dump n' chase. Come playoff time, there is no space to wheel and the team needs to learn how to make their own space. I'd rather they try to learn it now and take the lumps in the regular season than in round 1.

We have a winner.

This is 100% correct. As much as we can say that Andersen's poor play lost us some games in October, anyone that couldn't see the glaring issues in the teams play that month mustn't of been watching very closely.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

undermining the play of guys like Marner.

You speak as if Marner had a fantastic October when the team was playing more the style you're requesting them to play now?

 

[herman]

I don't buy the narrative that there is no space to wheel in the playoffs. If you maintain possession and move the puck effectively, you create space to wheel/move. If you chip the puck down the ice (i.e. give the puck away) and are forever trying to get possession back, then you're eliminating that ability to create space. This is all the more pronounced when your team is built to rush the puck, not forecheck, and is clearly undermining the play of guys like Marner.

I think it's a mistake to assume dump and chase is the final tactic Babcock is pursuing. In my mind, it is a step towards a rounded attack. We already know this team knows how to rush the puck, but we also know this team can be stopped at the blue line on the rush, occasionally.  The rush works best as a counter-attack on a NZ/DZ turnover, but if your backend is a sieve there's no rush anyway.

DnC is a valid option if the defense is standing still; making it temporarily option 1 for awhile is a way to get the players to learn how to do it effectively. They've already switched to diagonals vs strong side dump ins so the defenders are forced to reassess assignments while F1 beelines for generating chaos.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

As much as I'd like to run and gun all day (e'ryday), that's no more sustainable than dump n' chase. Come playoff time, there is no space to wheel and the team needs to learn how to make their own space. I'd rather they try to learn it now and take the lumps in the regular season than in round 1.

We have a winner.

Remind me again, who won the last two Stanley Cups?

 

[Strangelove]

undermining the play of guys like Marner.

You speak as if Marner had a fantastic October when the team was playing more the style you're requesting them to play now?

In general, I try not to let the outcome impact my assessment. Marner had a cold start, but is far more likely to play well under a possession-based system than under a chip and chase system. Ditto for the rest of the team.

 

[herman]

https://theathletic.com/185679/2017/12/15/mirtle-if-mike-babcock-loves-the-way-the-leafs-are-playing-thats-a-bit-concerning/

Mirtle has concerns about Babcock thinking the Leafs are playing fine.

What I'm seeing from his post-games and some comments the players have made recently, as well as how some teams are playing... the Leafs don't care about raw Corsi. They think they've cracked the code on shot quality and are structuring accordingly (just like the Carlyle days!).

A lot of teams have started just firing the puck from anywhere. The Leafs are always trying to shoot from the circles and in (but don't always get in there); except for Polak, who shoots always (into legs). Leafs defense only take shots at the net from the tops of the circles and in (if possible), otherwise it's a bump up the wall, or if there's traffic they take a deliberately wide shot. Shots that lead to tips don't count as shot attempts (Corsi).

 

[OldTimeHockey]

As much as I'd like to run and gun all day (e'ryday), that's no more sustainable than dump n' chase. Come playoff time, there is no space to wheel and the team needs to learn how to make their own space. I'd rather they try to learn it now and take the lumps in the regular season than in round 1.

We have a winner.

Remind me again, who won the last two Stanley Cups?

Pittsburgh, but they were far from a run and gun team that won games on the backs of their offense.
Matt Murray had a GAA of 2.08 and 1.70 in the last two playoffs. The team had maybe one game per series where they lit it up offensively(6-0 over Nashville and 7-0 Ottawa).

Note the goals given up in those games. Run and gun doesn't lead to shutouts. It leads to 5-4 wins. As fun as that is, I prefer the 6-0 game or the 3-1 game out of a team. It shows they're taking care of both ends of the ice.

 

[herman]

As much as I'd like to run and gun all day (e'ryday), that's no more sustainable than dump n' chase. Come playoff time, there is no space to wheel and the team needs to learn how to make their own space. I'd rather they try to learn it now and take the lumps in the regular season than in round 1.

We have a winner.

Remind me again, who won the last two Stanley Cups?

Of last season's playoff teams, Pittsburgh had the second worst CF%. Their other stats suggest they were playing some kind of shot-quality game too.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

undermining the play of guys like Marner.

You speak as if Marner had a fantastic October when the team was playing more the style you're requesting them to play now?

In general, I try not to let the outcome impact my assessment. Marner had a cold start, but is far more likely to play well under a possession-based system than under a chip and chase system. Ditto for the rest of the team.

Sure he will. There's no doubt about it that every team in the NHL for the most part will play better under a possession-based system, but if you trade possession back and forth because you're flying up and down the ice with no concern for defense you're going to lose as much as you win. It's a recipe for disaster, not success.

Like herman stated, this isn't an finished product you're seeing. It's a work in progress.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Pittsburgh, but they were far from a run and gun team that won games on the backs of their offense.
Matt Murray had a GAA of 2.08 and 1.70 in the last two playoffs. The team had maybe one game per series where they lit it up offensively(6-0 over Nashville and 7-0 Ottawa).

Note the goals given up in those games. Run and gun doesn't lead to shutouts. It leads to 5-4 wins. As fun as that is, I prefer the 6-0 game or the 3-1 game out of a team. It shows they're taking care of both ends of the ice.

They were 3rd in goals per game in the 15/16 regular season, 2nd in goals per game in the playoffs. And they were 1st in goals per game in the 16/17 regular season, and 1st in the playoffs. Offence was undoubtedly their biggest strength.

And I think that we're getting into a bit of a strawman's argument here. Nobody is saying that the October Leafs were perfect and that we should continue to try and win games 5-4 every night. "Run and gun" isn't something that exists anywhere in the NHL anymore.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

Pittsburgh, but they were far from a run and gun team that won games on the backs of their offense.
Matt Murray had a GAA of 2.08 and 1.70 in the last two playoffs. The team had maybe one game per series where they lit it up offensively(6-0 over Nashville and 7-0 Ottawa).

Note the goals given up in those games. Run and gun doesn't lead to shutouts. It leads to 5-4 wins. As fun as that is, I prefer the 6-0 game or the 3-1 game out of a team. It shows they're taking care of both ends of the ice.

They were 3rd in goals per game in the 15/16 regular season, 2nd in goals per game in the playoffs. And they were 1st in goals per game in the 16/17 regular season, and 1st in the playoffs. Offence was undoubtedly their biggest strength.

And I think that we're getting into a bit of a strawman's argument here. Nobody is saying that the October Leafs were perfect and that we should continue to try and win games 5-4 every night. "Run and gun" isn't something that exists anywhere in the NHL anymore.

And? Pitt scores lots of goals? So will Toronto eventually. They just have to do it the right way.

As for "run and gun" what would you call the way Toronto was playing in October?

It seems to me that many are asking for the Leafs to fix their issues they had in October without changing the way they play the game.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

As for "run and gun" what would you call the way Toronto was playing in October?

It seems to me that many are asking for the Leafs to fix their issues they had in October without changing the way they play the game.

Let's talk "run and gun" for a second. You would agree that this sort of style would result in a large number of shot attempts going both ways, correct? Here are some Leafs stats from October and November/December:

	GP	CF/60	CA/60	Sh%	Sv%
October	12	61.15 (9th)	57.95 (12th)	11.11 (1st)	90.32 (27th)
Nov/Dec	21	58.07 (15th)	61.47 (26th)	8.66 (7th)	94.32 (3rd)

The Leafs, apparently playing "run and gun", had just the 9th highest shot attempts rate and the 12th lowest shots against against rate.

The Leafs, playing "safe" dump and chase hockey, are of course getting loss shot attempts now but also allowing way more shot attempts in their own end.

The Leafs weren't playing 80s hockey in October. They were playing with speed. They were playing with controlled entries and controlled exits. They were playing with the puck on their sticks as often as they could. Those are all things that they've deliberately stopped doing since November 1st. They were also making dumb mistakes defensively. Those weren't systemic though, they were just dumb human errors. And they were running with sky high shooting and save percentages on opposite ends of the spectrum which led to very high goal totals for both teams playing.

 

[herman]

More discussion fuel for "this current structure is not great", but also, "the Leafs don't know how to play defense yet". The tweet-thread talks about the dangers of 'binning' data by arbitrary lines the way Scoring Chances (home plate), and High Danger Scoring Chances can skew the read.

https://twitter.com/IneffectiveMath/status/941325843837669377

 

[bustaheims]

More discussion fuel for "this current structure is not great", but also, "the Leafs don't know how to play defense yet". The tweet-thread talks about the dangers of 'binning' data by arbitrary lines the way Scoring Chances (home plate), and High Danger Scoring Chances can skew the read.

That deep red areas between the hashmarks is as bad as the deep blue area in front of the net is good. Those are all high danger areas.

 

[mr grieves]

The Leafs weren't playing 80s hockey in October. They were playing with speed. They were playing with controlled entries and controlled exits. They were playing with the puck on their sticks as often as they could. Those are all things that they've deliberately stopped doing since November 1st. They were also making dumb mistakes defensively. Those weren't systemic though, they were just dumb human errors. And they were running with sky high shooting and save percentages on opposite ends of the spectrum which led to very high goal totals for both teams playing.

Also, since then, they've altered the lineup to suit their "safer" style. Defensively responsible but offensively inept slugs are playing lots of minutes, stuck next to the talent, talented guys are having minutes cut and not being put in a position to succeed (or even just get going), etc. The results they've been getting aren't an endorsement of these changes -- they're driven by percentages, Andersen's hot run -- and the product's suffering.

I've stopped watching. Not going to take 3 hours out of my day to watch Leo Komarov do nothing.

 

[herman]

More data grist for the mill!

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2017/12/15/the-toronto-maple-leafs-change-in-playing-style-separating-fact-from-fiction/

Clearly, the Leafs could not be successful playing an open style like they did out of the gate ? with such a dreadful save percentage ? over an entire season, especially in the playoffs. They cut out some of the risk and scaled back the intensity in some of their forechecking to add safer elements.

They didn?t improve defensively. They just got better goaltending.

They?re less aggressive in the offensive zone ? there is less 2-1-2 and they?re not as frantic underneath the goal line, while adopting a ?prevent?-style 1-2-2 in the neutral zone (I?d bet a tracker could see more controlled exits from Leafs opponents lately).

 

[herman]

More discussion fuel for "this current structure is not great", but also, "the Leafs don't know how to play defense yet". The tweet-thread talks about the dangers of 'binning' data by arbitrary lines the way Scoring Chances (home plate), and High Danger Scoring Chances can skew the read.

That deep red areas between the hashmarks is as bad as the deep blue area in front of the net is good. Those are all high danger areas.

Yup. The red used to creep right up to the crease before, but the area between the dots is arguably more dangerous.

This follow-up spells it out more descriptively
https://twitter.com/IneffectiveMath/status/941331047958110208

 

[Frank E]

As for "run and gun" what would you call the way Toronto was playing in October?

It seems to me that many are asking for the Leafs to fix their issues they had in October without changing the way they play the game.

Let's talk "run and gun" for a second. You would agree that this sort of style would result in a large number of shot attempts going both ways, correct? Here are some Leafs stats from October and November/December:

	GP	CF/60	CA/60	Sh%	Sv%
October	12	61.15 (9th)	57.95 (12th)	11.11 (1st)	90.32 (27th)
Nov/Dec	21	58.07 (15th)	61.47 (26th)	8.66 (7th)	94.32 (3rd)

The Leafs, apparently playing "run and gun", had just the 9th highest shot attempts rate and the 12th lowest shots against against rate.

The Leafs, playing "safe" dump and chase hockey, are of course getting loss shot attempts now but also allowing way more shot attempts in their own end.

The Leafs weren't playing 80s hockey in October. They were playing with speed. They were playing with controlled entries and controlled exits. They were playing with the puck on their sticks as often as they could. Those are all things that they've deliberately stopped doing since November 1st. They were also making dumb mistakes defensively. Those weren't systemic though, they were just dumb human errors. And they were running with sky high shooting and save percentages on opposite ends of the spectrum which led to very high goal totals for both teams playing.

So, if we assume that Babcock isn't an idiot, and he's watching the same games we are, why is he using this strategy?

Is he trying to show a different look, and then change it up later when goaltending cools off? 

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

To the system concerns people have had, Dellow has an interesting look at it in the Athletic.

In Toronto's game against Carolina a few weeks back, the Maple Leafs won 11 defensive zone faceoffs. They proceeded to get out-attempted 17-0 on those shifts. That -17 is the second worst collection of defensive zone wins a team has put together this decade.

...

Watching the video, it looks like Toronto had a pretty simple approach: win the faceoff, fly the zone, try to hit a streaking forward to tip the puck in or, even better, with a pass.

Unless the goal was icings and turnovers, it didn't work.

https://theathletic.com/184961/2017/12/16/dellow-why-are-the-maple-leafs-such-a-mediocre-possession-team/