2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion

[Coco-puffs]

https://twitter.com/DylanFremlin/status/953503298664980480

Click through to see the thread of Dermott clips and some of the detail work that he does regularly that doesn't make the highlights.

No doubt Dermott has the tools to be a good 2nd pair option IMO.  He deserves most of the praise he's been getting.  But I still see errors being a bit too aggressive and not being on the right side of his man defensively at times.  Might be that he needs to adjust to the quickness NHL forwards can get to the net for the latter. 

Dermott did not have a good possession game last night.  15 shot-attempts against in 11 minutes is way too high.  I'd like to see more of why that occurred through video.  Looking at the shift charts, it looks like Dermott had 2 or 3 short shifts with Rielly and those must have gone horribly as Polak had 11 CA in his 11 5v5 mins (so don't just go blaming Polak for all of it)

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Dermott did not have a good possession game last night.  15 shot-attempts against in 11 minutes is way too high.  I'd like to see more of why that occurred through video.  Looking at the shift charts, it looks like Dermott had 2 or 3 short shifts with Rielly and those must have gone horribly as Polak had 11 CA in his 11 5v5 mins (so don't just go blaming Polak for all of it)

I noticed that too. Per NaturalStatTrick, Dermott played 9:22 of his 11:00 5-on-5 minutes with Polak and the Leafs had 9 shot attempts for and 10 against with the two of them on the ice (47.4% CF).

But in 1:16 of ice-time with Rielly the Leafs' shot share was 0-5. So they must have just been pinned down pretty badly in one shift or something.

 

[Coco-puffs]

Dermott did not have a good possession game last night.  15 shot-attempts against in 11 minutes is way too high.  I'd like to see more of why that occurred through video.  Looking at the shift charts, it looks like Dermott had 2 or 3 short shifts with Rielly and those must have gone horribly as Polak had 11 CA in his 11 5v5 mins (so don't just go blaming Polak for all of it)

I noticed that too. Per NaturalStatTrick, Dermott played 9:22 of his 11:00 5-on-5 minutes with Polak and the Leafs had 9 shot attempts for and 10 against with the two of them on the ice (47.4% CF).

But in 1:16 of ice-time with Rielly the Leafs' shot share was 0-5. So they must have just been pinned down pretty badly in one shift or something.

Yeah, they definitely got pinned down.  I don't think it was entirely intentional to get Dermott out there with Rielly though.  I noticed when they changed OTF but could only get one guy changed, they would have the RD (Polak or Hainsey) come off for the next pair LD (Rielly or Dermott).  Usually if you can only change one of your D on the fly, its because the puck is coming back your way.  By the time the puck is moving back up the ice Dermott/Rielly is changing and all you've got is some shot attempts against.

 

[herman]

Dermott did not have a good possession game last night.  15 shot-attempts against in 11 minutes is way too high.  I'd like to see more of why that occurred through video.  Looking at the shift charts, it looks like Dermott had 2 or 3 short shifts with Rielly and those must have gone horribly as Polak had 11 CA in his 11 5v5 mins (so don't just go blaming Polak for all of it)

I noticed that too. Per NaturalStatTrick, Dermott played 9:22 of his 11:00 5-on-5 minutes with Polak and the Leafs had 9 shot attempts for and 10 against with the two of them on the ice (47.4% CF).

But in 1:16 of ice-time with Rielly the Leafs' shot share was 0-5. So they must have just been pinned down pretty badly in one shift or something.

Yeah, they definitely got pinned down.  I don't think it was entirely intentional to get Dermott out there with Rielly though.  I noticed when they changed OTF but could only get one guy changed, they would have the RD (Polak or Hainsey) come off for the next pair LD (Rielly or Dermott).  Usually if you can only change one of your D on the fly, its because the puck is coming back your way.  By the time the puck is moving back up the ice Dermott/Rielly is changing and all you've got is some shot attempts against.

That sounds about right. There is one sequence on the shift chart (late in the first or early in the second?) where Yeo got Tarasenko's group out against Dermott-Polak, so Polak jumped off immediately to get Rielly out, and Dermott got trapped.

 

[herman]

I haven't listened to this yet, but here we go!
https://twitter.com/DimFilipovic/status/953662150026805248

 

[ZBBM]

Managing expectations is the name of the game.

1.  Last year: New toys, fun fun fun, everything went right, just making playoffs okeydokey.

2.  This year: Toys no longer quite as shiny, Babcock turns off fun spigot, Matthews hurt NylanderMarner goal scoring down Marleau low on petrol Kadri WTF and of course POLAK!!!!!!!!!, jeez with a roster this talented we surely are in for a deep run right?  Right??

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Neat graphic that shows how the Leafs have been utilizing their forwards this season:

At the start of the season Komarov was the 6th/7th most used forward, nowadays he's the 3rd/4th. Hyman and Marleau also round out the top-4. Aside from Matthews of course we're just not putting our best players on the ice as much as we should. That's a problem.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

A note on JVR too: if the Leafs are even remotely considering re-signing JVR they HAVE to play him more. You cannot under any circumstances give $6mil to somebody you are treating as a 3rd liner.

 

[L K]

The lines are bad.  They have been bad for far too long.  Blow them up for once and fix them. 

JVR - Matthews - Nylander
Hyman - Bozak - Brown
Marleau - Kadri - Marner
Soshnikov/Leivo - Moore/Gauthier - Kapanen

 

[ZBBM]

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2018/01/17/mike-babcock-on-current-losing-slide-weve-played-better-but-didnt-get-the-results/

Not.  One.  Question.  Challenging.  Him.

I really think every serious media outlet needs to have writers who are essentially paid critics.  None of these pool guys will do it because they need to keep on Babcock's good side.  Whatever you may think of Larry Brooks as a writer, he got in Torts' face when he was in NY.  Can you imagine any of these guys doing that with Babcock?

And yet he shouldn't just be allowed to spin a mix of BS platitudes and blowoff lines like he does.  I don't think he's a bad coach but he and his team of assistants have made a lot of poor decisions this year.  Why can't somebody ask him directly to explain why he doesn't start OTs with Matthews?  Etc etc.

 

[Strangelove]

Looks like Babcock is subbing in Moore but making no other changes. Nothing - not even an epically bad few months for the second line and a losing streak - will convince Babcock to break that line up. He will continue to give Komarov more ice time than any other forwards, notwithstanding a million reasons why he shouldn't, because he's the decider.

Given the tools at his disposal, I honestly think Babcock could not be making worse decisions regarding line-up management. He is shockingly and irrationally stubborn.

 

[azzurri63]

Evidence in how this team is being poorly run and coached is by looking at Matthews. Start of the season he was on fire. Looked like top 3 players in the league, up at the top of the scoring race, averaging over a point a game. Now I see him sitting 67th in league scoring. Sure he got hurt and set him back a bit but that is absolutely ridiculous and Babcock has a lot to do with that.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Why can't somebody ask him directly to explain why he doesn't start OTs with Matthews?

In Babcock's defence on this particular point, Matthews does get the vast majority of OT time. He and Nylander have about 12 minutes each in 3-on-3 time. The next highest forwards are Marner, Marleau, and Kadri at about 8-ish each. For all the complaints about a guy like Komarov playing in OT, he's played under 2 minutes of 3-on-3 time this season. Babcock usually just tries to survive that first shift with Kadri + someone else and then he puts out the scorers and pushes.

 

[herman]

Hahaha I'm not fan of some of Babcock's decisions either but let's not get too myopic.

I really think every serious media outlet needs to have writers who are essentially paid critics.  None of these pool guys will do it because they need to keep on Babcock's good side.  Whatever you may think of Larry Brooks as a writer, he got in Torts' face when he was in NY.  Can you imagine any of these guys doing that with Babcock?

And yet he shouldn't just be allowed to spin a mix of BS platitudes and blowoff lines like he does.  I don't think he's a bad coach but he and his team of assistants have made a lot of poor decisions this year.  Why can't somebody ask him directly to explain why he doesn't start OTs with Matthews?  Etc etc.

There's a balance that has to be struck here. I think there have been criticisms (that you don't see because they're on The Athletic) and a lot of them fair. Asking him to explain specific tactics isn't going to get a super specific answer. My theory on why Matthews doesn't get first shift in the OT: he and Nylander are better on the fly, and he trusts Kadri can zero out the other team's top options more often than not. The chances of Matthews-Nylander scoring against 2nd units is far higher than Kadri or Marleau against 2nd units, and the chances of Kadri being scored on by the opposing first units is less than the chances of them scoring against Matthews-Nylander.

About half of this season's OTs have started with Marleau-Marner, so it's also about juggling who is freshest, who is going well this game, etc.

Looks like Babcock is subbing in Moore but making no other changes. Nothing - not even an epically bad few months for the second line and a losing streak - will convince Babcock to break that line up. He will continue to give Komarov more ice time than any other forwards, notwithstanding a million reasons why he shouldn't, because he's the decider.

Given the tools at his disposal, I honestly think Babcock could not be making worse decisions regarding line-up management. He is shockingly and irrationally stubborn.

What's clearly obvious is that Babcock is measuring for things other than the stats at the end of the night (attention to detail). If you see his decisions through the lens of wanting to develop a program and player attitude of a) being on the right side of the puck, b) taking care of your assignment, c) taking care of your body/preparation consistently, then it is pretty obvious why Komarov, Hyman, Brown consistently get the playing time and none of the 'punishment' for the missed executions they make.

The greater goal, beyond the score of one regular season game, is building a core of elite two-way talent that never takes nights off, because that's what marches teams deep into the playoffs season after season. He's deliberately providing resistance against the skilled players who have grown up through other teams being gifted ice time and high leverage situations by virtue of their scoring ability, and he wants them to be better everywhere else in their game and break through that ceiling.

Evidence in how this team is being poorly run and coached is by looking at Matthews. Start of the season he was on fire. Looked like top 3 players in the league, up at the top of the scoring race, averaging over a point a game. Now I see him sitting 67th in league scoring. Sure he got hurt and set him back a bit but that is absolutely ridiculous and Babcock has a lot to do with that.

Lol. Getting super angry about the Leafs treading water while they have had key injuries (and are still coming back from them) and eking out pity points is about as useful as being super excited about a first-month winning streak. Scoring luck comes and goes.

Matthews has played 10 fewer games and still leads the team in Pts (with minimal PP time and <20 min avg TOI. Nylander has had a garbage shooting percentage all year and is still 2nd on the team, also with minimal PP time and even less TOI. He hasn't even started clicking yet and is still on pace for 57 pts, which is just shy of his 61 last year. Marner only just started coming back to form and is also on pace for 55 playing third line minutes.

Obviously I'd like us to play better overall and we've given away a good handful of points lately due to mistakes at critical junctures, but we clearly are not maxing out our potential yet and we're still in a good position to make a healthy run. The point is, our players are being curated balanced minutes throughout the season while other teams are flogging their horses at 20+ minutes a night just to get where they are in the standings, while we are casually strolling to a playoff berth very, very rested. To win in the playoff grind, it's basically the team that has 3+ lines of attack, and carrying the fewest injuries (a hot goalie helps too).

 

[Highlander]

Just wanted to compliment your post Herman, very insightful.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/joshuakloke/status/954028981069795329

Well damn, if nobody WANTS to give up their minutes then yeah that puts Babcock in a really tough spot as a head coach.

 

[Strangelove]

Hahaha I'm not fan of some of Babcock's decisions either but let's not get too myopic.

Looks like Babcock is subbing in Moore but making no other changes. Nothing - not even an epically bad few months for the second line and a losing streak - will convince Babcock to break that line up. He will continue to give Komarov more ice time than any other forwards, notwithstanding a million reasons why he shouldn't, because he's the decider.

Given the tools at his disposal, I honestly think Babcock could not be making worse decisions regarding line-up management. He is shockingly and irrationally stubborn.

What's clearly obvious is that Babcock is measuring for things other than the stats at the end of the night (attention to detail). If you see his decisions through the lens of wanting to develop a program and player attitude of a) being on the right side of the puck, b) taking care of your assignment, c) taking care of your body/preparation consistently, then it is pretty obvious why Komarov, Hyman, Brown consistently get the playing time and none of the 'punishment' for the missed executions they make.

The greater goal, beyond the score of one regular season game, is building a core of elite two-way talent that never takes nights off, because that's what marches teams deep into the playoffs season after season. He's deliberately providing resistance against the skilled players who have grown up through other teams being gifted ice time and high leverage situations by virtue of their scoring ability, and he wants them to be better everywhere else in their game and break through that ceiling.

You haven't shown why playing Komarov and Hymen more than any other players on the team helps to "develop a program". They are not good two way players. In fact, they are arguably not even good defensive players, depending on what you think about the importance of possession to defence. Hymen appears to be a serviceable third liner and Komarov is now a borderline NHLer/PK specialist.

Playing those guys more than other players who are actually capable of sustaining offensive pressure and possession does nothing but hurt the team's performance (in the short-term) and the team's confidence (in the long-term).

Babcock seems to be a relic of the 90s, in the sense that he appears to be willing to ignore advanced stats and go with his gut. The interesting part is that his gut has led the team astray for months and yet he is unwilling to change his mind or listen to the experts.

 

[Chris]

The more I watch the team, the more I think Hyman is a big problem for the Matthews line. Earlier on I was willing to buy the Babcock line about how he gets the puck for the other 2 guys, but the more I watch the less I believe that. He gets in there fast and occasionally wins a puck battle, but not often enough in my opinion for the otherwise complete lack of offense he provides. Matthews and Nylander almost never pass the puck to him and I think other teams have adjusted to that...and they seem to be keeping them to the outside a lot more because of it. So who do you put there? I think the best answer is actually the player who should be on the Leafs roster but isn't...Kapanen. He's not as big as Hyman and maybe not as fast, but he plays a heavy game for his size and brings way more offensive upside. I think the line would be much more dangerous with him on the left side.

Other options...Marleau doesn't seem to be effective enough as a forechecker from what I see. Could Brown work on the left side? Again, way more offensive ability than Hyman but not as fast. I won't even mention Leivo (oops). Some have mentioned JVR as an option there. Not sure, he's not particularly great in the corners or as a puck handler.

Anyway, it's not going to matter. Babcock is paid to decide and it looks like he is digging in his heels.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Credit to @B1rky on twitter for a good little summary of some of what ails the Leafs.

There's a certain argument for sports (and anything, really) that progress isn't linear. I think it's natural for fans to assume (and expect) a meteoric rise, but sometimes things take time. Sometimes, progress means taking steps over time.

The issue in pro sports these days is that players peak so young, and are only cost controlled for so long, that the window for a 'perfect storm' of success is small.

The Leafs have all kinds of young talent that can produce at the NHL level, including guys in the AHL who would likely be NHLers on maybe 15-20 other teams.

The fact that Toronto can't seem to find a way to utilize this advantage (where player performance is trending upwards and salaries remain low) is puzzling.  The fact that Toronto is paying Connor Brown based on a 20 goal season and playing him as a 4th liner is puzzling.

We're starting to see the frustration within the fan base boil over after yet another season of this kind of player deployment. Komarov playing 20 minutes a night. Polak playing at all. Overworking Andersen. Matt Martin.

When people talk about bad contracts for role players, this is what they are speaking about: death by a thousand cuts.  It's not just one of these lineup choices. It's all of them at the same time. A team can probably absorb one or two.

Toronto barely made it into the playoffs last season. They'll get in this year because there is no pressure from the teams below them. But they're probably still the 7th or 8th best team in the East. In a league where slightly more than half of the teams make the playoffs.

 

[herman]

You haven't shown why playing Komarov and Hyman more than any other players on the team helps to "develop a program". They are not good two way players. In fact, they are arguably not even good defensive players, depending on what you think about the importance of possession to defence. Hymen appears to be a serviceable third liner and Komarov is now a borderline NHLer/PK specialist.

Playing those guys more than other players who are actually capable of sustaining offensive pressure and possession does nothing but hurt the team's performance (in the short-term) and the team's confidence (in the long-term).

Babcock seems to be a relic of the 90s, in the sense that he appears to be willing to ignore advanced stats and go with his gut. The interesting part is that his gut has led the team astray for months and yet he is unwilling to change his mind or listen to the experts.

Actually, I've shown you why Babcock chooses to deploy them more, but I didn't demonstrated how that has been effective (if at all). The results that we look at are outputs: goals, points, even shot differentials. They're all the end result of a sequence of events predicated on a) system, b) decision making within the system, c) physical capability to execute the system, and d) external forces (i.e. the other team's tactics). We don't have the micro-data to analyze this publicly, but according to Justin Bourne in the podcast referenced previously, these Babcock favourites do it the 'right' way Babcock wants, with great consistency. Where they occasionally falter is in talent-level execution of certain plays, and in Komarov's case, his physical capability. Their system hasn't really changed since Babcock took over, btw. The increase in dumping and chasing is more because other teams have adjusted to the Leafs and are treating them as threats.

Ultimately, the 'program' is not really for these favourite depth guys: they already know what they're doing. It's for the Marners and Nylanders (and similar Marlies) who are so blessed with talent that they've never had to deal with the details (these are the types of players we want to be drafting, right?). Remember Kessel's response to his junior coach who sort of got mad that his lackadaisical defense cost them a goal? "I'll just get a another". And he did and routinely could in that league. In the NHL, that's not a guarantee, and our talent isn't quite at that level. Look at how Gretzky coached. Without a doubt one of the greatest offensive players and minds for the game, overflowing with talent. Couldn't coach his teams worth a lick because all his detail processing was subconscious (so he couldn't communicate that) and I'd say he rarely ever had to try.

What can be controlled though is how players position themselves relative to the puck and play, what they are thinking regarding the game states, etc. So in this developmental period of time, and stage of the build, and segment of the regular season, ice time reward gets allocated according to who is most successful at doing what the coach wants, rather than who lays out the most points. Babcock is in the unique situation where he has both the chutzpah, tenure, and cachet to pull it off.

All I'm suggesting here is that the majority of our analysis is judging by results, and Babcock is judging by the inputs he can see. Rightly or wrongly, this is not irrational stubbornness. His preferred style is simple and conservative (and hella boring). Remember his comments about the World Cup at the beginning of last year when he was asked about Team North America? I'm paraphrasing, but it was to the effect of, "Looks fun, eh? but I like to win." And Team Canada won there, and at Sochi before; with overwhelming talent, yes, but playing a very staid, stifling style, and letting scoring talent overmatch in the offensive zone once set up, or off of turnovers.