2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion

[Frank E]

If they cut 10 games from Andersen, and his decline began in March last year. Won't his decline just start in the 2nd or 3rd round of the playoffs? I mean he has to be able to play 75ish games to win a cup doesn't he?

Its a matter of not having enough off days to recover.  Playing 70 games in a 7 month stretch is harder than playing 70 games in a 8 month stretch.

Sure, but if he's getting to the brink and then has to play every other night for 8 weeks with random gaps between series. That's a lot. If he wore out after 60+ games and 20 playoff games it would be one thing. But to wear out with a month left in the season, if wear is the issue, I'm a little concerned.

I think you're missing the point.  If they can start the backup in 10 or so more games, Andersen theoretically wouldn't be at "the brink", and would be able to handle the playoffs more easily because he wouldn't be worn down.  It's not a total games started issue, it's a total games started in a more compressed time issue.

 

[Bill_Berg]

If they cut 10 games from Andersen, and his decline began in March last year. Won't his decline just start in the 2nd or 3rd round of the playoffs? I mean he has to be able to play 75ish games to win a cup doesn't he?

Its a matter of not having enough off days to recover.  Playing 70 games in a 7 month stretch is harder than playing 70 games in a 8 month stretch.

Sure, but if he's getting to the brink and then has to play every other night for 8 weeks with random gaps between series. That's a lot. If he wore out after 60+ games and 20 playoff games it would be one thing. But to wear out with a month left in the season, if wear is the issue, I'm a little concerned.

I think you're missing the point.  If they can start the backup in 10 or so more games, Andersen theoretically wouldn't be at "the brink", and would be able to handle the playoffs more easily because he wouldn't be worn down.  It's not a total games started issue, it's a total games started in a more compressed time issue.

Isn't the playoffs more games in a shorter period of time than the regular season?

 

[herman]

Justin Bourne had an interesting line in an article he wrote the other day about what analytics guys on NHL teams do. The article itself isn't really important to my point so don't worry about not reading it:

"Maybe the data say that a certain two D are best when together, but that coach knows that when they play together, it messes up the personnel groups he prefers on special teams."

He didn't expand on this really, but it made me think of our calls for Gardiner and Rielly to play together and how that probably won't happen as long as they're both anchoring the PP units. If they're both on the ice on a long shift that draws a penalty, then neither of them can start on the powerplay. Sure, you could throw Dermott or Zaitsev or Carrick out there, but it throws things off enough that if it happens consistently it becomes an issue.

Good observation.

 

[Coco-puffs]

Isn't the playoffs more games in a shorter period of time than the regular season?

82 games in 185 days.  About 0.45 games per day.

Playoffs, worst case, is 28 games in ~70 days.  About 0.4 games per day IF you end up going through four 7 game series. 

 

[Bill_Berg]

Isn't the playoffs more games in a shorter period of time than the regular season?

82 games in 185 days.  About 0.45 games per day.

Playoffs, worst case, is 28 games in ~70 days.  About 0.4 games per day IF you end up going through four 7 game series.

Yeah but Andersen doesnt play 82 games. Say he plays 69, which means all but back to backs. That's .37 a day. So as long as we're not going to a bunch of 7s he's fine!

 

[Bill_Berg]

And the story is he was burnt out last year. If he's rate per day was .37, then that's to much. And playoffs could be .4?

 

[Phileas Fogg]

I find it hard to believe that there isn't more relevant mainstream individual stats for goalies than Save% and GAA. So much help is given to goalies on teams that have defense that can limit true chances, keep shots visible and to the outside, etc... those metrics could almost be considered a team defensive stat than for a goaltender.

My eye test last year was that Anderson was probably the team's MVP last season. He won them games they had no business winning, and the defense regularly gave up grade A scoring chances at critical times in the games. Yes, they probably overplayed him a bit. But the games they lost in the playoffs were a team losses, not gifts from Freddie, unless the expectation is that he stands on his head every single night.

 

[ZBBM]

I find it hard to believe that there isn't more relevant mainstream individual stats for goalies than Save% and GAA. So much help is given to goalies on teams that have defense that can limit true chances, keep shots visible and to the outside, etc... those metrics could almost be considered a team defensive stat than for a goaltender.

My eye test last year was that Anderson was probably the team's MVP last season. He won them games they had no business winning, and the defense regularly gave up grade A scoring chances at critical times in the games. Yes, they probably overplayed him a bit. But the games they lost in the playoffs were a team losses, not gifts from Freddie, unless the expectation is that he stands on his head every single night.

Yeah, he was pretty bad in Games 1 and 2 against BOS but the whole team was beyond awful.  For all my caterwauling about Gardiner in G7 the other day you can probably throw that one in the same pile.

Those were 3 horriblehorriblehorrible road playoff games.  In a word, they were horriblow.

 

[herman]

I know some won't bother with this, but this one is worth spending a freebie on:
https://theathletic.com/439618/2018/07/21/the-goalie-business-plan-behind-leafs-goalie-coach-steve-brieres-model-for-success/

Since he was added to the Leafs' staff, our goalies have seen a turnaround in consistency, and I believe a large part of our recent success between the pipes has to do with Steve Briere's approach between the ears.

?Even if you know nothing about goaltending, there are pillars to goaltending that you do know. If you say you don?t, that?s a cop-out. Goaltending is no different than business. I always ask the goalies in the summer who train with me for their training program so far and they say ?well, I wake up at 9 a.m., I go to the gym, I work out, then I go on the ice, then I go for lunch, then I usually go for a round of golf, and then I hang out with my buddies and play Fortnite all night? and then I say ?How much of the game is mental?? and they say it?s ?90 per cent of the game? and I say ?you?re right, it is.? And then I say: ?When did you work on the mental side of the game??? Briere explained.

?Goalies only start to work on the mental side when they start struggling. The problem with that is it?s too late. You try to talk to a goalie when he?s struggling, he doesn?t care about half the things you?re saying to him. That?s something that we need to work on every single day.?

 

[Bullfrog]

It's 90% mental is such a cop-out of a cliche, too. Obviously the higher up we get in sports, the smaller the gap in the physical side, but to suggest it's down to 10% is just silly to me.

 

[Kin]

It's 90% mental is such a cop-out of a cliche, too. Obviously the higher up we get in sports, the smaller the gap in the physical side, but to suggest it's down to 10% is just silly to me.

Whenever I hear something like that I just read it as complete and total self-aggrandisement. The reason that these guys succeed isn't that they're better athletes than the other guys, no indeed, it's that they're better people.

 

[herman]

It's 90% mental is such a cop-out of a cliche, too. Obviously the higher up we get in sports, the smaller the gap in the physical side, but to suggest it's down to 10% is just silly to me.

Whenever I hear something like that I just read it as complete and total self-aggrandisement. The reason that these guys succeed isn't that they're better athletes than the other guys, no indeed, it's that they're better people.

Doesn't that come from their hearts?

 

[Frank E]

It's 90% mental is such a cop-out of a cliche, too. Obviously the higher up we get in sports, the smaller the gap in the physical side, but to suggest it's down to 10% is just silly to me.

Whenever I hear something like that I just read it as complete and total self-aggrandisement. The reason that these guys succeed isn't that they're better athletes than the other guys, no indeed, it's that they're better people.

Doesn't that come from their hearts?

No no, you guys have it all wrong. It's all about motivation. Anybody can be like Crosby, they just need to be motivated.

 

[herman]

It's 90% mental is such a cop-out of a cliche, too. Obviously the higher up we get in sports, the smaller the gap in the physical side, but to suggest it's down to 10% is just silly to me.

Whenever I hear something like that I just read it as complete and total self-aggrandisement. The reason that these guys succeed isn't that they're better athletes than the other guys, no indeed, it's that they're better people.

Doesn't that come from their hearts?

No no, you guys have it all wrong. It's all about motivation. Anybody can be like Crosby, they just need to be motivated.

Gall bladder?

 

[Bullfrog]

It's proven; the more you give to charity, the faster you can skate.

 

[herman]

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2018/7/23/17595564/toronto-maple-leafs-auston-matthews-goals-nhl-debut-elite-nhl-stats-toronto-maple-leafs-analysis

What?s incredibly unique about Matthews is exactly how he does it. Broadly speaking, there are three ways to excel as a scorer.
[list type=decimal]
[*]Shoot more than average (shot generation)
[*]Shoot proportionally more from great locations / positions (shot selection)
[*]Convert more shots to goals, independent of location / positions (shot efficiency)
[/list]
Matthews does all of them.

Not really highlighted in the above article is how Matthews scores. Elite scorers often largely rely on one or two well-honed shots (Ovi/Laine/Stamkos one-timer from the circle off a Royal Road pass, for example). He can fling a catch and release wrister, slip a five-hole with a quick angle change, dangle through traffic, put in a one-handed high-slot tip pass, bulldoze through a maze of legs to shelf a puck backhand, the list goes on.

In an injury shortened season, Matthews produced at a better rate than his Calder Trophy season. This year, with the shelter of Kadri at home and Tavares on the road, we could see ridiculous numbers at, once again, paltry ice time relative to traditional 1C deployment.

Tavares and Kadri are also similar in that they also make the majority of their shots (and goals) from the slot.

 

[princedpw]

It's 90% mental is such a cop-out of a cliche, too. Obviously the higher up we get in sports, the smaller the gap in the physical side, but to suggest it's down to 10% is just silly to me.

Whenever I hear something like that I just read it as complete and total self-aggrandisement. The reason that these guys succeed isn't that they're better athletes than the other guys, no indeed, it's that they're better people.

Doesn't that come from their hearts?

No no, you guys have it all wrong. It's all about motivation. Anybody can be like Crosby, they just need to be motivated.

The way I read this is that a lot of a goalie's skill set is fixed already (genetics; age 5-20 development), their physical work habits at this level are typically pretty good or they wouldn't be here, but they have been exposed to no mental training and it makes a bigger difference than you'd expect.  It would be cool if they could actually measure the difference (eg: a decrease in "bad goals"/game?) ... I haven't read the article ...

 

[herman]

The way I read this is that a lot of a goalie's skill set is fixed already (genetics; age 5-20 development), their physical work habits at this level are typically pretty good or they wouldn't be here, but they have been exposed to no mental training and it makes a bigger difference than you'd expect.  It would be cool if they could actually measure the difference (eg: a decrease in "bad goals"/game?) ... I haven't read the article ...

There's also stuff about how goalies tend to be coached in the feeder leagues, where they are basically... not. The line rushes and skills and systems work that the teams do as a whole are pretty much not applicable to replicating game situations for goalies, so most coaches just kind of leave them off to do their own thing, but also have high expectations for them.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

The way I read this is that a lot of a goalie's skill set is fixed already (genetics; age 5-20 development), their physical work habits at this level are typically pretty good or they wouldn't be here, but they have been exposed to no mental training and it makes a bigger difference than you'd expect.  It would be cool if they could actually measure the difference (eg: a decrease in "bad goals"/game?) ... I haven't read the article ...

There's also stuff about how goalies tend to be coached in the feeder leagues, where they are basically... not. The line rushes and skills and systems work that the teams do as a whole are pretty much not applicable to replicating game situations for goalies, so most coaches just kind of leave them off to do their own thing, but also have high expectations for them.

What are we referring to when mentioning "Feeder Leagues"?

 

[herman]

The way I read this is that a lot of a goalie's skill set is fixed already (genetics; age 5-20 development), their physical work habits at this level are typically pretty good or they wouldn't be here, but they have been exposed to no mental training and it makes a bigger difference than you'd expect.  It would be cool if they could actually measure the difference (eg: a decrease in "bad goals"/game?) ... I haven't read the article ...

There's also stuff about how goalies tend to be coached in the feeder leagues, where they are basically... not. The line rushes and skills and systems work that the teams do as a whole are pretty much not applicable to replicating game situations for goalies, so most coaches just kind of leave them off to do their own thing, but also have high expectations for them.

What are we referring to when mentioning "Feeder Leagues"?

There was a specific anecdote referring to a GTHL practice. Feeder leagues is just a catch-all term I chose.