2018 Draft Targets

[Kin]

I don?t know other prospect systems around the league all that well, so which ones are actually exciting without the parent squad being a total panzer? Nashville, Tampa, St. Louis, and Vegas (sort of)?

Well, for example let's take Philadelphia. They're not total butt. They've got some pretty exciting young players like Couturier, Gostisbehere, Patrick and Provorov. But behind that they have, in their system:

- A 19 year old C who scored 112 points in the OHL
- A 6'6 winger who scored 40 OHL goals
- A WHL goaltending prospect who went 31-6-3 with a .947 SV%

Their AHL team had a pretty good season this year and they've got a bunch of 2nd/3rd rounders that I'm sure they're fairly bullish on so, you know, that's a push. But what they have, and what the Leafs don't right now, are those sorts of B/B+ sorts of prospects that got taken between 20-40 and then show flashes of star potential.

The Leafs, in part because of their decision to go with a semi-tear down and in part because of some questionable decisions they made with the picks they did have, don't have that. Aside from Liljegren, who's already serving as the great Swedish hope for the defense, I really question whether or not the Leafs have any prospects that would get another GM excited.

The Leafs system isn't terrible or anything, it certainly looks like it's got some depth to it, but even if you compared it to say a team without that depth like Washington then even they've got some flash with potentially the best G prospect in the world.

 

[herman]

I don?t know other prospect systems around the league all that well, so which ones are actually exciting without the parent squad being a total panzer?

I have no idea. Is Panzer good or bad?

Depends on which part of the draft the team is angling for.

 

[Frank E]

The undecided reserve list really isn?t supposed to be exciting.

Drafted players they?ve ELC?d under Dubas, ignoring the first rounders:
Timashov, Engvall, Lindgren, Bracco, Dermott, Nielsen, Grundstrom, Brooks, Johnsson

Free external adds under 24:
Moore, Marchment, Kaskisuo, Borgman, Rosen, Holl

There are a couple of second rounders on that list, as Nik pointed out.  So I'm a little concerned with Rasanen not really moving forward this year, and Korshkov is still an enigma.  Bracco has been a healthy scratch lately, so that's never a good sign, although he's already signed a deal.

Pointing out the external additions they've made outside of the draft is really kind of irrelevant to my concerns about the early round drafting lately.

 

[herman]

I think the true sentiment is that the Leafs? CHL prospect pool is depressing. And the CHL being the one people are most readily exposed to following sort of becomes the standard excite-o-meter.

I think our relatively short stretch of average to above average development management factors in. The good pipelines have been doing it for a long time. We definitely had some odourous picks these last two drafts, which brought it down to a just-above average performance outside round 1.

As for some specific question marks, Korshkov was trapped in a terrible coaching situation. Once that change was made he tripled in production rate. The KHL has also basically removed themselves from easy access on the net. Bracco was a Pt/Gm player down the stretch for the Marlies after he got over the mono, but has been scratched for playstyle reasons to accommodate Grundstrom on line 1 and Marchment being a better fit on the 4th line.

External pickups are still quite relevant to our pipeline health. And I didn?t know you were speaking specifically about early round drafting concerns, Frank, as your post was referring to a specific list of players. The only big question marks from rds 2-3 in the past three years are really Korshkov, Greenway, Nielsen, and maybe Dzierkals. Dermott, Bracco, Grundstrom, Woll, and Rasanen all look like there?s potential there. I would personally include Korshkov and Dzierkals into the potential pool, but knowing we could?ve had Girard (other whatever) instead stings a bit.

 

[Kin]

I think the true sentiment is that the Leafs? CHL prospect pool is depressing. And the CHL being the one people are most readily exposed to following sort of becomes the standard excite-o-meter.

There's some truth to that but, let's be real, the Leafs don't have the equivalent prospects in any other league either. They don't have any SEL or NCAA guys tearing it up.

The only big question marks from rds 2-3 in the past three years are really Korshkov, Greenway, Nielsen, and maybe Dzierkals. Dermott, Bracco, Grundstrom, Woll, and Rasanen all look like there?s potential there. I would personally include Korshkov and Dzierkals into the potential pool, but knowing we could?ve had Girard (other whatever) instead stings a bit.

I don't think you need to draw a line between guys who have potential and guys who are question marks like they're two entirely distinct categories. Someone like Korshkov, as much as I make fun of the pick, might fit into both categories.

That said though I think it's pretty reasonable for a fan to be less excited about Korshkov than they might be about the sort of prospects I'm talking about and I don't think it's just because of where Korshkov is playing.

 

[Bullfrog]

That said though I think it's pretty reasonable for a fan to be less excited about Korshkov than they might be about the sort of prospects I'm talking about and I don't think it's just because of where Korshkov is playing.

I think this is an important distinction. Aside from Johnsson and Liljegren, there's isn't another prospect in the system that I can say with confidence will be an NHLer, let alone an impact player. (maybe Grundstrom and Borgman to that list, but that's sad.)

I'd be the opposite of excited.

 

[herman]

That said though I think it's pretty reasonable for a fan to be less excited about Korshkov than they might be about the sort of prospects I'm talking about and I don't think it's just because of where Korshkov is playing.

That's fair. He's not a homerun swing which is what I'd have preferred we go with for a draft pick that high. I do think he's got top 6 potential though.

I think it should also be recognized that a lot of the Leafs' flashier prospects have jumped into pro, e.g. Adam Brooks was also a 19 year old C that scored 120 pts in the stingier WHL, but he's now on the Marlies; Grundstrom did plenty of damage in the SHL as a kid amongst adults. Our under 25 group is a pretty crazy turnaround for one that was inept for over a decade.

 

[Kin]

Adam Brooks was also a 19 year old C that scored 120 pts in the stingier WHL

Come on.

Grundstrom did plenty of damage in the SHL as a kid amongst adults.

Grundstrom is a pretty good prospect, if probably a step behind the Brett Howdens and Sam Steels of the world. But for a team to have been where the Leafs were a couple years ago and effectively have just one of those guys a few years later is a perfect illustration of what I'm talking about.

 

[herman]

Adam Brooks was also a 19 year old C that scored 120 pts in the stingier WHL

Come on.

Brooks played 2C behind Sam Steel too.

Grundstrom is a pretty good prospect, if probably a step behind the Brett Howdens and Sam Steels of the world. But for a team to have been where the Leafs were a couple years ago and effectively have just one of those guys a few years later is a perfect illustration of what I'm talking about.

I don't disagree that we could conceivably be in a better position if some of the moves from the past two-three seasons were made differently. Perhaps I'm just more legitimately excited about Timashov, Brooks, Korshkov than others.

 

[Kin]

Brooks played 2C behind Sam Steel too.

He also had 11 points in his draft year.

I don't disagree that we could conceivably be in a better position if some of the moves from the past two-three seasons were made differently. Perhaps I'm just more legitimately excited about Timashov, Brooks, Korshkov than others.

Maybe and fair goes. But when we talk about our prospect system I think it's always good to put it in context. It's certainly fine for you to be high on someone like Timashov but, just as a point of comparison, I only really listed the stand-outs of the Flyers system. The kind of guys the Leafs don't have. I didn't, for instance, mention Pascal Laberge or German Rubstov or Carsen Twarynski or Matthew Strome or....

Point being those 3rd and 4th round picks that people might be excited about or kind of wonky looking 2nd round picks...other teams have them too. Viewed in context the Leafs system doesn't have the peaks but I'm also not entirely sure their depth is anything special either.

 

[herman]

Brooks played 2C behind Sam Steel too.

He also had 11 points in his draft year.

Similar to Korshkov, that changed drastically under a new coach and system.

Maybe and fair goes. But when we talk about our prospect system I think it's always good to put it in context. It's certainly fine for you to be high on someone like Timashov but, just as a point of comparison, I only really listed the stand-outs of the Flyers system. The kind of guys the Leafs don't have. I didn't, for instance, mention Pascal Laberge or German Rubstov or Carsen Twarynski or Matthew Strome or....

Point being those 3rd and 4th round picks that people might be excited about or kind of wonky looking 2nd round picks...other teams have them too. Viewed in context the Leafs system doesn't have the peaks but I'm also not entirely sure their depth is anything special either.

Peaks and depth is a great way to visualize it.

I agree the depth is not quite fantastic, and pretty top loaded with first round wins and middle solids, but nothing really with gamebreaking pop outside of those first rounders.

 

[Kin]

Similar to Korshkov, that changed drastically under a new coach and system.

He was still under a PPG(and undrafted) as a draft +1. That's not a flashy prospect by anyone's definition.

I agree the depth is not quite fantastic, and pretty top loaded with first round wins and middle solids, but nothing really with gamebreaking pop outside of those first rounders.

Unless you're including Gauthier(who seems like, at best, a first round draw), the Leafs have just the one first-rounder in their prospect pool.

 

[herman]

Unless you're including Gauthier(who seems like, at best, a first round draw), the Leafs have just the one first-rounder in their prospect pool.

I was talking about Nylander, Marner, Matthews; but since they're graduates, they don't really count as prospects within the parameters of this conversation. All our real eggs are already in the NHL, other than Liljegren. Dermott and Johnsson and Kapanen are NHLers for all intents and purposes.

 

[Highlander]

Unless you're including Gauthier(who seems like, at best, a first round draw), the Leafs have just the one first-rounder in their prospect pool.

I was talking about Nylander, Marner, Matthews; but since they're graduates, they don't really count as prospects within the parameters of this conversation. All our real eggs are already in the NHL, other than Liljegren. Dermott and Johnsson and Kapanen are NHLers for all intents and purposes.

 

[Highlander]

Unless you're including Gauthier(who seems like, at best, a first round draw), the Leafs have just the one first-rounder in their prospect pool.

I was talking about Nylander, Marner, Matthews; but since they're graduates, they don't really count as prospects within the parameters of this conversation. All our real eggs are already in the NHL, other than Liljegren. Dermott and Johnsson and Kapanen are NHLers for all intents and purposes.

So how many other Marlies will be on the Leafs within 2 years? Sparks, Engvall,  Timashov, Holl?  After that how many young guys need to graduate each year, 1, 2? 

 

[rdowdall]

Unless you're including Gauthier(who seems like, at best, a first round draw), the Leafs have just the one first-rounder in their prospect pool.

I was talking about Nylander, Marner, Matthews; but since they're graduates, they don't really count as prospects within the parameters of this conversation. All our real eggs are already in the NHL, other than Liljegren. Dermott and Johnsson and Kapanen are NHLers for all intents and purposes.

So how many other Marlies will be on the Leafs within 2 years? Sparks, Engvall,  Timashov, Holl?  After that how many young guys need to graduate each year, 1, 2?

In some cases it's less about filling the roster at the parent level and more about having enough currency to make the deals that you need to make.

Things don't look good now, and it seems like the Leafs are living off of past success when people talk about the Leafs having a solid prospect pool.  It can turn around quick though.  If Dubas can flip the rights to some of the UFA's for some extra picks, and they have a solid draft, then they can build things back up.  It depends on what approach the Leafs are going to take going forward.

 

[herman]

So how many other Marlies will be on the Leafs within 2 years? Sparks, Engvall,  Timashov, Holl?  After that how many young guys need to graduate each year, 1, 2?

This coming season, Kapanen, Johnsson, Dermott for sure. Holl has a leg up being a righty and considered literally the #1 RHD by the coaching staff that Dubas trusts. Aaltonen, Rosen, Borgman, are in the mix for call ups if not actual starters. We will see if Gauthier or Marchment get looks with the Leafs as there is always a market for tall.

Grundstrom, Timashov, Engvall, Liljegren look on pace for call ups at the deadline depending on requirements.

Further to SI?s note about trade currency, we can also trade off the roster because the cheaper prospects are ready (e.g. Brown, Zaitsev, maaaaybe Gardiner but I?d rather not).

 

[CarltonTheBear]

From NHL.com's mock draft:

25. Toronto Maple Leafs
Kimelman -- Jared McIsaac, D, Halifax (QMJHL): Smarts and skating are the foundation of McIsaac's game. The Maple Leafs need players who can trigger than transition game, and McIsaac (6-1, 196) can do that by carrying the puck out of the zone, or with a smart pass to an open forward.

Morreale -- Isac Lundestrom: He has a good combination of speed and skills along with excellent offensive instincts. He had 15 points (six goals, nine assists), a plus-7 rating, and 15 blocked shots, averaging 16:04 of ice time in 42 SHL games. Lundestrom had two goals in seven games to help Sweden win a silver medal at the 2018 World Junior Championship.

Lepage -- Ryan McLeod: Possibly one of the fastest players in this year's draft class, his speed would make him a good fit for how the Maple Leafs like to play.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

All 3 NHL.com writers have Montreal passing on either Zadina or Svechnikov for Brady freakin' Tkachuk which would be *chef kiss*

 

[rdowdall]

Further to SI?s note about trade currency, we can also trade off the roster because the cheaper prospects are ready (e.g. Brown, Zaitsev, maaaaybe Gardiner but I?d rather not).

Yeah, I was thinking about this last night, and I think that is an angle that might need to be explored as well.  Nobody outside of the Leafs organization was that high on Connor Brown when he played for the Marlies.  You couldn't have included him in a trade as a major piece.  You could probably do that now.  Part of what the Leafs need to do is identify the pieces that they have in the pipeline that they figure can replace some of the pieces at the top.  Move those pieces out where they can for younger assets that can build up the prospect pool.  This should be able to get them through the next couple of years while they try and build up the depth a little more.  The fear is that the organization isn't aware that their depth is lacking. 

As fans we have kind of done this already with the likes of JVR, Bozak and Komarov.  We aren't sure if the Leafs are going to be better or worse because of this but that is the most likely scenario that is going to happen for next year.  After this wave of replacements hits, that's where the pipeline depth starts to take a hit, because if there was another wave of UFA departures, there wouldn't be enough to adequately back fill the roles.

This is why there was some lamenting of the lack of movement on some of these pieces at the deadline for assets that could keep the pipeline full, so that you always have another wave ready to hit. 

The core is pretty solid with Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Kadri, Reilly.  They have about a decade to build around those guys, assuming there are no contract squabbles.  The other pieces will interchange as time progresses and trades are made, or players walk or what have you.  This is the area where you need prospect depth.  You need it to smooth out those bumps in the road.