2018 Draft Targets

[Coco-puffs]

Just to add a minor point, I guess I consider drafting a multi-hundred-game player a home run, even if he isn't a superstar.

Well, this is probably where we reach the limit of the metaphor because a homerun is, just literally speaking, the absolute best possible outcome of any at-bat. I'm not sure there's much meaning here if we can't make any distinction between Nick Spaling and PK Subban.

Spaling is an inside the park homer in spring training. PK is a grand slam in G7 of the World Series.

Their difference in value is not one of context.

Oh for sure.  To go down the baseball analogy a bit further, you can equate "getting on base" with nobody on to guys who play a few games.  Typically, OBP is about .320.  I wouldn't be surprised if about 1/3 of all draft picks play 1 game in the NHL.  So, whether its a single or a walk with nobody on, you have a bunch of guys who- to varying degrees- got a sniff but probably couldn't stick or were no more than 4th liners for a couple of seasons (single that advances a runner one base as well?)

Nick Spaling is probably a double.  Played 400 games, wasn't bad but wasn't great and played in your bottom 6.

PK Subban is of course a home runt.  Is he a 3 run or Grand Slam?  I don't know but I'm not going to dig into percentages of those happening vs guys of his caliber getting drafted.

 

[herman]

Traditionally, draft pick value is ascribed by games played, which is an easy measure. Games played being a strong measure of NHL worthiness is an interesting discussion in and of itself, probably largely useful, but maybe it really only measures what coaches value at the time.

To Nik's point, games played isn't exactly the goal when drafting, it's the primary method to teams acquiring true talent and actual needlemovers.

http://lastwordonhockey.com/2018/05/30/draft-pick-value-charts/
Chace McCallum recently posted a comparison between traditional draft pick valuation (GP or point-share in the example below), to a valuation based on GAR (goals above replacement), a composite stat taking into account deeper stats as a pseudo-measure of strong-link players.

 

[Kin]

Oh for sure.  To go down the baseball analogy a bit further, you can equate "getting on base" with nobody on to guys who play a few games.  Typically, OBP is about .320.  I wouldn't be surprised if about 1/3 of all draft picks play 1 game in the NHL.  So, whether its a single or a walk with nobody on, you have a bunch of guys who- to varying degrees- got a sniff but probably couldn't stick or were no more than 4th liners for a couple of seasons (single that advances a runner one base as well?)

Nick Spaling is probably a double.  Played 400 games, wasn't bad but wasn't great and played in your bottom 6.

PK Subban is of course a home runt.  Is he a 3 run or Grand Slam?  I don't know but I'm not going to dig into percentages of those happening vs guys of his caliber getting drafted.

But I think this is where we start to confuse evaluating the draft as a means of judging a GM's performance and actually caring about what the results mean to a team. If you pick a serviceable 4th liner who has a 500+ game career in the 3rd round then you might be tempted to say it's a "good pick" based on the raw % of what players picked in that range make any sort of NHL careers at all and the GM picking him keenly evaluated his talent vs. the legions of also-rans available.

But in the long run what's the actual value of picking that 4th line plugger when comparable or even better players are available every year as UFAs for a million dollars? How does that pick genuinely change the fortunes of the team that picked him? Does he save you a few hundred K for a couple of years?

Spaling's not the best example because I think he had a couple of genuinely valuable years but just getting a NHL player out of a draft pick is something GMs/Scouts should care about, not fans. For fans, we should care about actually adding value to the team. By that measurement I think the kind of 4th liner I'm talking about, as a draft pick, is really more analogous to a batter who hits into an error.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I don't really have a particular favourite in this draft (mostly because it's impossible to say who will be available so I don't want to get attached to anyone) but a name I'm starting to get intrigued by is Jake Wise. He's a 5'10", 190 lbs American centre. He used to be a very highly thought of prospect a couple of years ago but the hype died down a little leading up to his draft season, and then he missed the first half or so of this season with an injury that took awhile to fully recover from.

Reading some scouting reports he kinda seems like a bit of a poor man's Marner (the first scouting report there also compared his style of play to Konecny):

http://lastwordonhockey.com/2018/04/29/jake-wise-scouting-report-2018-nhl-draft/

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/nhl-draft/2018/5/29/17400042/2018-nhl-draft-profile-jake-wise-ryan-mcleod-oliver-wahlstrom-kevin-papetti

Most rankings seem to have him going early 2nd round, but Corey Pronman has him 22nd.

 

[Highlander]

I don't really have a particular favourite in this draft (mostly because it's impossible to say who will be available so I don't want to get attached to anyone) but a name I'm starting to get intrigued by is Jake Wise. He's a 5'10", 190 lbs American centre. He used to be a very highly thought of prospect a couple of years ago but the hype died down a little leading up to his draft season, and then he missed the first half or so of this season with an injury that took awhile to fully recover from.

Reading some scouting reports he kinda seems like a bit of a poor man's Marner (the first scouting report there also compared his style of play to Konecny):

http://lastwordonhockey.com/2018/04/29/jake-wise-scouting-report-2018-nhl-draft/

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/nhl-draft/2018/5/29/17400042/2018-nhl-draft-profile-jake-wise-ryan-mcleod-oliver-wahlstrom-kevin-papetti

Most rankings seem to have him going early 2nd round, but Corey Pronman has him 22nd.

It may be wise to choose Wise

 

[Boston Leaf]

Has anyone seen Mattias Samuelsson play? I know he is Kjells kid and is about 6 foot 5 and can skate? Sounds intriguing

 

[mr grieves]

While not death-spiral decisions, that and not trading JVR (and/or 42 & 47) were, to be frank, very bad decisions by Lou.  And Shanahan, who had to have acquiesced. (apologies to the dead horse)

I know this is somewhat using the benefit of hindsight (although it didn't take a genius to think the Leafs weren't winning the Cup in the past 2 seasons) but we could easily have had 5-6 extra picks in the first 2-3 rounds of the last 2 drafts and our current roster as of July 1st wouldn't have been worse in any way. That stings.

"Somewhat the benefit of hindsight" is... unfair to a lot of folks here and in the broader community of sport fans/writers. IIRC, Nik was on the get the picks train back in 2015. I rated having vets to insulate rookies sort of valuable, but I was there by summer 2017. A bunch of other folks around here -- you among them, I think -- got on board in between. And there were plenty of folks in the (smart) media and blogosphere who had the same foresight.

Nik's pointed out somewhere here lately that the Leafs can try to go one of two ways as contenders: the PIT model (have the best players in a generation, adequate complementary players) or the CHI model (very good high end players, better all around team). To have lots of good complementary players, you have to draft well and that means draft a lot. We can quickly tally to see how far off we are that second path, which seems most likely.

The Hawks went through a rebuild that encompassed the 2004-7 drafts, and during those 4 drafts, they had their 4 first round picks, and, in addition to that, ten (!!!) 2nds, five 3rds, and seven 4ths. 22 lotto tickets. The Leafs were only really tanking/rebuilding from 2015 to 2016, but let's say it starts with Nylander (2014) and continued into 2017 to make it four: four 1sts, five 2nds, five 3rds, six 4ths. That's 16.

So, yeah, those 5-6 extra picks the Leafs didn't have are the gap between where they are now and where Chicago was a decade ago, when they were stocking the cupboards to contend for 10 years or so.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

"Somewhat the benefit of hindsight" is... unfair to a lot of folks here and in the broader community of sport fans/writers. IIRC, Nik was on the get the picks train back in 2015.

True. I was mostly just trying to be more polite than saying "hey you dummies, Nik was right all along!"

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Again, if the Leafs go back to a 2015-style of drafting, then a guy like Semyon Der-Arguchintsev seems like somebody they might try to grab in the mid-to-late rounds. Here's a few profiles on him from this week:

https://www.allaboutthejersey.com/2018/6/5/17426782/semyon-der-arguchintsev-2018-nhl-draft-prospect-profile-project-high-end-playmaking-potential-sda

Semyon Der-Arguchintsev is a smaller, playmaking forward currently playing his junior hockey with the OHL?s Peterborough Petes. Der-Arguchintsev was born in Moscow, Russia but has been playing his hockey in Canada since at least the 2014-15 season, coming up through the bantam and midget levels before jumping to CHL major junior in 2016-17. Der-Arguchintsev, who is often referred to as ?SDA? likely due to his mouthful of a name, was born September 15, 2000, which is also known as the cutoff date for the 2018 NHL Draft. That makes Der-Arguchintsev the youngest (or at least tied for the youngest) eligible player likely to be selected in this year?s draft. His Elite Prospects player page has him listed at 5?-10? and 159 pounds, meaning he is definitely on the small side of things.

https://www.habseyesontheprize.com/nhl-entry-draft-picks-2018/2018/6/3/17419810/semyon-der-arguchintsev-2018-nhl-draft-prospect-profile-highlights-video-analysis-scouting-report

He seems to be a forgotten talent of this draft class, one who has a much higher ability than what he is given credit for, and could easily end up becoming a big steal for a team willing to bet on the forward's development.

Der-Arguchintsev is a true playmaker. He showcases a great vision of the ice and is constantly seen, with or without possession, looking around and planning ahead to find the best target for his passes, enabling him to set up quick and dangerous scoring chances. He can make one-touch feeds to get the puck through traffic quickly, but is also able to create passing lanes by deceiving defenders just as easily.

https://www.milehighhockey.com/2018/5/31/17412886/2018-nhl-draft-prospects-semyon-der-arguchintsev-is-the-youngest-player-in-the-draft-scouting-report

Right now, he still needs that space to do his best work. As with almost any draft prospect, SDA needs to gain put on a lot of muscle, the bonus is that he is younger than everyone else, so he?s got more physical maturing to do naturally. His slight frame allows him to be knocked off the puck easily and makes it hard for him to win puck battles along the boards.

You can tell Der-Arguchintsev knows what it will take for him to develop into a professional hockey player. ?You have to learn how to play defence, how to play in the neutral zone and how to play without the puck. Those are all important things. They?re probably more important than putting up points. Yeah, getting points is great but it?s not everything.?

Defensively, Der-Arguchintsev progressed a long way from his rookie campaign. He back checks a lot harder and has learned that there is more to the game than playing with the puck on his stick. He uses his quickness to be disruptive and does a decent enough job of helping his teammates in the defensive zone, despite his size. He finished with one of the better GF%rel on the team this season.

 

[Kin]

"Somewhat the benefit of hindsight" is... unfair to a lot of folks here and in the broader community of sport fans/writers. IIRC, Nik was on the get the picks train back in 2015.

True. I was mostly just trying to be more polite than saying "hey you dummies, Nik was right all along!"

Besides, I already have that tattooed.

 

[Zee]

Again, if the Leafs go back to a 2015-style of drafting, then a guy like Semyon Der-Arguchintsev seems like somebody they might try to grab in the mid-to-late rounds. Here's a few profiles on him from this week:

That name is way too difficult to spell or pronounce so I'm totally against drafting this guy.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Again, if the Leafs go back to a 2015-style of drafting, then a guy like Semyon Der-Arguchintsev seems like somebody they might try to grab in the mid-to-late rounds. Here's a few profiles on him from this week:

That name is way too difficult to spell or pronounce so I'm totally against drafting this guy.

Just call him SDA man. Notice how I never spelt out James Van Reismdkyejs's name.

 

[Zee]

Again, if the Leafs go back to a 2015-style of drafting, then a guy like Semyon Der-Arguchintsev seems like somebody they might try to grab in the mid-to-late rounds. Here's a few profiles on him from this week:

That name is way too difficult to spell or pronounce so I'm totally against drafting this guy.

Just call him SDA man. Notice how I never spelt out James Van Reismdkyejs's name.

SDA has a nice ring to it, alright I'm on board.  ;D

(I'd make a great scout, select or deny players based on their name lol )

 

[Kin]

Again, if the Leafs go back to a 2015-style of drafting, then a guy like Semyon Der-Arguchintsev seems like somebody they might try to grab in the mid-to-late rounds. Here's a few profiles on him from this week:

That name is way too difficult to spell or pronounce so I'm totally against drafting this guy.

See, I think we should only draft guys whose names are hard to spell and pronounce just to stick it to local media.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Again, if the Leafs go back to a 2015-style of drafting, then a guy like Semyon Der-Arguchintsev seems like somebody they might try to grab in the mid-to-late rounds. Here's a few profiles on him from this week:

That name is way too difficult to spell or pronounce so I'm totally against drafting this guy.

See, I think we should only draft guys whose names are hard to spell and pronounce just to stick it to local media.

I'd tune into Coach's Corner just to see Don try to pronounce that one.

 

[Zee]

Again, if the Leafs go back to a 2015-style of drafting, then a guy like Semyon Der-Arguchintsev seems like somebody they might try to grab in the mid-to-late rounds. Here's a few profiles on him from this week:

That name is way too difficult to spell or pronounce so I'm totally against drafting this guy.

See, I think we should only draft guys whose names are hard to spell and pronounce just to stick it to local media.

That's a good point.  If it came down to a good old Canadian boy with a name like Tommy Brown vs this guy, and then watch Don Cherry's head explode as he complains about who the Leafs chose.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

That's a good point.  If it came down to a good old Canadian boy with a name like Tommy Brown vs this guy, and then watch Don Cherry's head explode as he complains about who the Leafs chose.

Or just watch the replay of him complaining about the 2014 draft.

 

[Kin]

"Somewhat the benefit of hindsight" is... unfair to a lot of folks here and in the broader community of sport fans/writers. IIRC, Nik was on the get the picks train back in 2015. I rated having vets to insulate rookies sort of valuable, but I was there by summer 2017. A bunch of other folks around here -- you among them, I think -- got on board in between. And there were plenty of folks in the (smart) media and blogosphere who had the same foresight.

And, if I could just expand on this a moment I think a lot of people sort of write off the JVR/Bozak/Other decisions as being of insufficient magnitude to really care about but I think there are two points there.

One, I really do think they're underestimating the damage done. Even with a conservative estimate of return I think the difference could really be the situation they're in now where if they want to trade for a significant piece they're going to have to choose between trading away someone who's currently contributing to the club or further depleting an already not great prospect base or a situation where they're one of the better situated teams to make a big trade with promising 2nd round picks and prospect types. I talked before about how someone like a Jordan Kyrou could be the team's Plan B if Tavares falls through but the asset he might represent could also be a real serious trade piece. The difference between dealing at the deadline and not dealing at the deadline could easily be the difference between having a major contributor and not having one.

But also, it's not really about the magnitude. It was just a bizarrely bad decision. It's like if you had a financial manager who, rather than making some tax moves that could save you 1000 dollars just decided not to do them. It's not that the 1000 bucks will make or break you it's that you really do have to question the decision making of the guy who chose nothing over something.

 

[Bullfrog]

I agree with that 100%, Nik. Couple that with trading away a 2nd round pick, it was just bizarre. I don't believe for a second that they couldn't have traded one of those guys. It's not like they were unaware of the state of their prospect cupboard.

 

[Frank E]

I agree with that 100%, Nik. Couple that with trading away a 2nd round pick, it was just bizarre. I don't believe for a second that they couldn't have traded one of those guys. It's not like they were unaware of the state of their prospect cupboard.

There was also the 2nd round pick for Boyle at last year's deadline, right?