2019-2020 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion

[Kin]

So, if we can agree their "outscoring the problem" isn't likely sustainable if the goal is a Cup, then what do they do?

I look at the roster construction, and there are only 30 or so games left, and they're not looking like a team that is on the cusp of being able to play a shut-down hockey game.

Do they embrace what they are and just put the foot to the floor on offense, or does Keefe downshift at this point of the season?

Two things:

1. I don't know if you're talking about what do they do in terms of long term or short term but short term I don't think there's much to do and long term I think you'd need to see the team full strength before making big decisions on what they're capable of. A healthy defense and a bit of a bounce back from Andersen and it could be a very different team.

2. I don't really have much confidence in the playoffs as being a real arbiter of much so honestly they really just need to get in and from then on...? Take your shot. The best, most rounded team got knocked out in four games last year. I don't think you can definitively say what will or won't win a cup.

 

[Frank E]

I don't know if you can completely separate "Freddie hasn't been his usual self" from the Leafs not being super good defensively but I'd agree that right now the Leafs are just firmly establishing that outscoring mediocre goaltending isn't a sustainable gameplan.

Yeah. This is not an either/or situation. It's a both/and. Andersen hasn't been as good as he has been in the past, which is concerning, but his stretch of weaker play has really just meant the Leafs are paying for their defensive issues more. They give up a lot of high danger scoring chances (8th most in the league, per Natural Stat Trick), and, with Freddie not playing at as high a level as we've become accustomed to, more of them are finding their way into the net.

We've been hovering around that number for a few years now though. 11th and 12th in the most previous years. Freddie's expected goals is underwater at this point. I went to the Devils game and the Blackhawks game and while the team didn't look like defensive stalwarts, they didn't look horrendous either. There've been times where Freddie's come up big like a few times in OT when we really blew coverage, but I can recall two goals from the Devils game off the top of my head that I place most blame on Freddie and at least 2 or 3 against the Blackhawks. This is a recording. The Leafs being not great defensively isn't new to this year or new to Keefe taking over (to some extent I feel like this narrative is media driven that Babcock was playing a more clamp down style which is just false).

What was Freddy's expected save percentage in prior years? Without looking I'd bet it was at least positive.

I actually think that Babcock was trying to address the issue, but the way this roster was constructed didn't lend to "clamp down" playoff hockey.  They struggled, but I think they maybe (maybe maybe) gave up on it too soon.

Keefe came in and played MMNT a ton more minutes, and Andersen was on a good part of his curve, so they won a bunch of games.  Now he's on one of his bad streaks, and we can see the results.

Their gameplan, under Keefe, works only if Andersen can play really good to great goaltending. 

Two things:

1. I don't know if you're talking about what do they do in terms of long term or short term but short term I don't think there's much to do and long term I think you'd need to see the team full strength before making big decisions on what they're capable of. A healthy defense and a bit of a bounce back from Andersen and it could be a very different team.

2. I don't really have much confidence in the playoffs as being a real arbiter of much so honestly they really just need to get in and from then on...? Take your shot. The best, most rounded team got knocked out in four games last year. I don't think you can definitively say what will or won't win a cup.

Maybe Dubas is playing the percentages here, and is keeping his fingers crossed that they can sneak into the playoffs with Andersen on one of his trending up curves...because take your shot.  And that's also why we don't see a sell-off unless they're well out of it...Dubas may feel they're good enough to take a shot if they're trending to sneak into the playoff.

 

[herman]

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2020/01/24/toronto-maple-leafs-rumours-january-24/

Bob:

I do think the Leafs are looking, but I think it is a very specific need. I think it is a right-shot D or a left-shot who has a lot of experience of playing on the right side, and it is also somebody who has a significant amount of term on his contract ? and by significant, I would probably say the low end of the bar would be what they did with Muzzin. That is somebody who has the rest of this season and another full year before they go to unrestricted free agency. Preferably, they would like more than a year and change. They would like two and change, three and change, four and change, five and change ? whatever the case may be, but then the number has to be favourable.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2020/01/24/toronto-maple-leafs-rumours-january-24/

Bob:

I do think the Leafs are looking, but I think it is a very specific need. I think it is a right-shot D or a left-shot who has a lot of experience of playing on the right side, and it is also somebody who has a significant amount of term on his contract ? and by significant, I would probably say the low end of the bar would be what they did with Muzzin. That is somebody who has the rest of this season and another full year before they go to unrestricted free agency. Preferably, they would like more than a year and change. They would like two and change, three and change, four and change, five and change ? whatever the case may be, but then the number has to be favourable.

DAVID SAVARD

 

[herman]

Josh Manson finally?

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/mapleleafs/status/1220859570765160448
Freddie?s all star mask
https://twitter.com/mapleleafs/status/1220853974494076929

 

[AvroArrow]

Kapanen + Dermott + 2nd for Dumba
Johnsson + Bracco + 3rd for Manson
Sign Muzzin for 4 years at 5 M
Send Ceci to the moon.

Reilly - Manson
Muzzin - Dumba
Sandin - Holl

 

[Guilt Trip]

Kapanen + Dermott + 2nd for Dumba
Johansson + Bracco + 3rd for Manson
Sign Muzzin for 4 years at 5 M
Send Ceci to the moon.

Reilly - Manson
Muzzin - Dumba
Sandin - Holl

Who's Johansson? And not to sure about Dumba. Someone convince me?

 

[hockeyfan1]

These dashing young chaps...

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

AM34 selling it with the wrist brace.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/LeafsPR/status/1221081023188013057

 

[AvroArrow]

Who's Johansson?

Ugh, that's Google's stupid autocorrect...

 

[nutman]

These dashing young chaps...

Unlike you we all arn't spelling bee champs. give it a rest.  ;D ;D ;D ;D

 

[CarltonTheBear]

And not to sure about Dumba. Someone convince me?

I'd probably rather just re-sign Barrie than give us significant assets to get Dumba. They seem like similar-ish players.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I also don't see any way Anaheim trades Josh Manson. Not after losing so many other defencemen the past few years. Vatanen, Theodore, Miller, Pettersson, Montour. It's actually kinda crazy to look back at how strong they were in that position and now they've got Gudbranson, Holzer, and Del Zotto on their blue line.

 

[Kin]

I also don't see any way Anaheim trades Josh Manson. Not after losing so many other defencemen the past few years. Vatanen, Theodore, Miller, Pettersson, Montour. It's actually kinda crazy to look back at how strong they were in that position and now they've got Gudbranson, Holzer, and Del Zotto on their blue line.

Really? I think it's pretty hard to imagine them not trading him. He's 28 and they've got him under contract for two more years. Unless they seriously think they're going to rebound and be a legitimate contender in the next two years he seems like he's not going to be of a ton of use to them on his current contract and a dicey proposition in terms of extending him.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I also don't see any way Anaheim trades Josh Manson. Not after losing so many other defencemen the past few years. Vatanen, Theodore, Miller, Pettersson, Montour. It's actually kinda crazy to look back at how strong they were in that position and now they've got Gudbranson, Holzer, and Del Zotto on their blue line.

Really? I think it's pretty hard to imagine them not trading him. He's 28 and they've got him under contract for two more years. Unless they seriously think they're going to rebound and be a legitimate contender in the next two years he seems like he's not going to be of a ton of use to them on his current contract and a dicey proposition in terms of extending him.

I feel like you're taking a much more logical/realistic stance than most GMs do with their teams in their position. I think they'll take their 2nd straight top-10 draft pick and say that's a good enough time to try to re-tool this summer to get back into the playoffs.

 

[Guilt Trip]

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2020/01/24/toronto-maple-leafs-rumours-january-24/

Bob:

I do think the Leafs are looking, but I think it is a very specific need. I think it is a right-shot D or a left-shot who has a lot of experience of playing on the right side, and it is also somebody who has a significant amount of term on his contract ? and by significant, I would probably say the low end of the bar would be what they did with Muzzin. That is somebody who has the rest of this season and another full year before they go to unrestricted free agency. Preferably, they would like more than a year and change. They would like two and change, three and change, four and change, five and change ? whatever the case may be, but then the number has to be favourable.

DAVID SAVARD

I heard this name before but I'm doubting CBJ trade him. What about Martinez in LA? I think he shoots left but plays the right side? Maybe an option?

 

[Guilt Trip]

And not to sure about Dumba. Someone convince me?

I'd probably rather just re-sign Barrie than give us significant assets to get Dumba. They seem like similar-ish players.

Dumba is youngish(25) and signed for 3 more at 6 mill. Is he a significant upgrade on Barrie and can we sign Barrie for 6 mill? Don't think Dumba is that close to Barrie for offence.

 

[Kin]

I feel like you're taking a much more logical/realistic stance than most GMs do with their teams in their position. I think they'll take their 2nd straight top-10 draft pick and say that's a good enough time to try to re-tool this summer to get back into the playoffs.

I suppose there's something to the idea that the gap between "contending" and where they are right now isn't as big in the Pacific but I tend to think, and I have nothing empirical to support this, that teams like Anaheim in less noisy markets but where they can attract free agents with weather/whatever can be a little more ruthless in moving on from guys than a Canadian market where trading someone like Manson would lead to various acts of whatever the Winnipeg version of seppuku is.