2019 Toronto Maple Leafs Offseason Discussion

[Zee]

I appreciate that the Leafs haven't had a ton of post-season success yet and for some people that's all that would justify such a decision but the idea of someone like Gardiner taking a below market deal to stay with a contender in a city he likes isn't some sort of crazy nonsense to be dismissed as unheard of fantasy.

Based on the Leafs cap situation, signing all of Marner, Kerfoot and Ceci would put them at the cap ceiling.  I suppose they could jettison Ceci and his roughly $4.5M, but would Gardiner sign back at that number when all talk was of him possibly commanding > $6M?  Seems like quite a big haircut to take.  Unless there's some other moves that open up more cap space I think it's alot to ask Gardiner to take such a discount, there's a limit to how much you love a place vs. how much more money you could make somewhere else.

Can the Leafs still offer him an 8-year deal, or did that expire on July 1st? I always wondered about the possibility of that. Heavily front-loaded with signing bonuses and a surprisingly low AAV.

No more 8 available, that ends once July 1 comes and he's free to sign anywhere.


Now that I think about it, it's sort of funny the juxtaposition of Gardiner vs. Marner, one guy wants to stay and is seemingly willing to sign for below market value to do so while the other is trying to squeeze every last cent out of his negotiation because he feels the team isn't offering enough money.

 

[slapshot]

I think there are three Marlies that could make an impact on the Leafs line up and decision making process in training camp.

1. Timothy Liljegren. Although some seem to think his stock has fallen, I think the Leafs were pleased with his progress defensively, especially given his injuries. If he had a really strong off-season training, he could surprise and I think given every opportunity to make the roster out of camp. If he were to step in and be solid (rookie mistakes of course), that would go a long way to helping solidify the right side of the defence.  He has had two years in the AHL, if not full years, so he should be ready for a really good look in camp.

2.  Ramus Sandin. Although he is almost destine for more time and big minutes in the AHL for at least most if not all of next year, could an amazing training camp make a difference? Could he take the spot that Rosen was expect to fill from the departure of Gardiner. If Liljegren flops in training camp and Sandin looks ready, maybe he take that 3rd pair left spot and Dermott flips to right side when he gets back? Or maybe, the Leafs expect Harpur to grab that spot. Really on d, I think it should come down to who plays best and what's best for their development.

3. Jeremy Bracco. This is where I think things get really interesting. Although there appear to be some concerns about his defence, there is no denying his offensive talent and he's already dominated offensively at the AHL level. This opens up a number of questions if he has a really strong camp. Makes no sense for him to be put in a Connor Brown situtation, playing as a fourth liner behind Nylander, Marner and Kapanen, so questions are: 1) Does he become a trade chip? 2) Do you experienment with him alongside Matthews because of his great passing ability and consider Nylander for third line center duties? 3) Do you flip Kapanen to the left side to open up a spot for him?
Nylander in the 3rd spot is intriguing if Bracco really proved a great fit with Matthews because it would again give the Leafs that really power down centre (though it didn't work super in the playoffs...they did take the Bruins to 7 games and I think the bigger issue was on defence in that one, Matthews still had a strong playoff). 

I think the Bracco situation will be the most interesting one in camp, followed by the young d-prospects Liljegren and Sandin.

Other than that, I expect fourth line duties with Spezza to be a really battle, Engvall, Marchment, Korshkov,  etc.

 

[herman]

I'm not saying that there's definitely no chance of this happening, but if it does Gardiner has to know that he's probably not going to get much if any powerplay time now with Rielly and Barrie ahead of him. So he'd be going into next years free agency market potentially proving that he's healthy but also maybe coming off his worst offensive season in years.

If Gardiner comes back, there?s a fun case to be made that we go 4F1D for PP1, and Gardiner-Barrie back PP2 in a curveball traditional set up so there?s no real game plan for our PP.

Rielly
Matthews-Nylander-Marner
Tavares

Barrie-Gardiner
Spezza-Kerfoot-Johnsson

 

[Zee]

I think there are three Marlies that could make an impact on the Leafs line up and decision making process in training camp.

1. Timothy Liljegren. Although some seem to think his stock has fallen, I think the Leafs were pleased with his progress defensively, especially given his injuries. If he had a really strong off-season training, he could surprise and I think given every opportunity to make the roster out of camp. If he were to step in and be solid (rookie mistakes of course), that would go a long way to helping solidify the right side of the defence.  He has had two years in the AHL, if not full years, so he should be ready for a really good look in camp.

2.  Ramus Sandin. Although he is almost destine for more time and big minutes in the AHL for at least most if not all of next year, could an amazing training camp make a difference? Could he take the spot that Rosen was expect to fill from the departure of Gardiner. If Liljegren flops in training camp and Sandin looks ready, maybe he take that 3rd pair left spot and Dermott flips to right side when he gets back? Or maybe, the Leafs expect Harpur to grab that spot. Really on d, I think it should come down to who plays best and what's best for their development.

3. Jeremy Bracco. This is where I think things get really interesting. Although there appear to be some concerns about his defence, there is no denying his offensive talent and he's already dominated offensively at the AHL level. This opens up a number of questions if he has a really strong camp. Makes no sense for him to be put in a Connor Brown situtation, playing as a fourth liner behind Nylander, Marner and Kapanen, so questions are: 1) Does he become a trade chip? 2) Do you experienment with him alongside Matthews because of his great passing ability and consider Nylander for third line center duties? 3) Do you flip Kapanen to the left side to open up a spot for him?
Nylander in the 3rd spot is intriguing if Bracco really proved a great fit with Matthews because it would again give the Leafs that really power down centre (though it didn't work super in the playoffs...they did take the Bruins to 7 games and I think the bigger issue was on defence in that one, Matthews still had a strong playoff). 

I think the Bracco situation will be the most interesting one in camp, followed by the young d-prospects Liljegren and Sandin.

Other than that, I expect fourth line duties with Spezza to be a really battle, Engvall, Marchment, Korshkov,  etc.

I'm not sure what the rules are for the expansion draft and pro seasons, but would any of the 3 guys mentioned have to be protected in 2 summers when Seattle comes a-calling?  (Assuming they each play a role on the Leafs roster in some way shape or form this upcoming season)?  Just wondering if that would factor in as well when holding guys back.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

If Gardiner comes back, there?s a fun case to be made that we go 4F1D for PP1, and Gardiner-Barrie back PP2 in a curveball traditional set up so there?s no real game plan for our PP.

Rielly
Matthews-Nylander-Marner
Tavares

Barrie-Gardiner
Spezza-Kerfoot-Johnsson

I mean I'd just play Barrie at forward in the Ovi/Laine/Stamkos one-timer spot in this case, but it's something that in the past the Leafs haven't wanted to do (play a defencemen in a forward PP spot I mean). But who knows maybe McFarland would be more open to that.

 

[Kin]

Unless there's some other moves that open up more cap space I think it's alot to ask Gardiner to take such a discount, there's a limit to how much you love a place vs. how much more money you could make somewhere else.

It's literally nothing to ask Gardiner if that's what he wants to do. If he doesn't, that is likewise his call, but like I said there's both no harm in asking and no point in pretending like it's outside the realm of possibility.

 

[Zee]

Unless there's some other moves that open up more cap space I think it's alot to ask Gardiner to take such a discount, there's a limit to how much you love a place vs. how much more money you could make somewhere else.

It's literally nothing to ask Gardiner if that's what he wants to do. If he doesn't, that is likewise his call, but like I said there's both no harm in asking and no point in pretending like it's outside the realm of possibility.

Oh I agree, there's no harm in asking, but I'm just skeptical he'll sign back especially considering what type of discount he'd be required to take to make it all fit.

 

[slapshot]

I appreciate that the Leafs haven't had a ton of post-season success yet and for some people that's all that would justify such a decision but the idea of someone like Gardiner taking a below market deal to stay with a contender in a city he likes isn't some sort of crazy nonsense to be dismissed as unheard of fantasy.

I just can't see it. Why lock up Gardiner to a long term deal when you have Rielly, Dermott and Sandin coming. Not to mention the possibility of hanging on to Muzzin. Why would Gardiner want a short term deal? Doesn't seem to make sense? I think Babs likes the righty-left 3-3 thing, so I can't see them flipping a lefty to the right side, though I suppose Dermott could do it. As much as some people might like that to happen, including Gardiner, just doesn't seem realistic at all. I think Dubas is just walking a kind PR line, but really knows there is no real room for Jake in the Leafs future plans. I wish him well, think he's a real stand up guy who bleeds blue, so I hope the fans give him (and Kadri) great ovations when he returns. That would show a lot of class, especially in Gardiner's case, with all his trials and tribulations.

 

[Kin]

Oh I agree, there's no harm in asking, but I'm just skeptical he'll sign back especially considering what type of discount he'd be required to take to make it all fit.

I don't think anyone has said it's a sure thing or even a good likelihood.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I'm not sure what the rules are for the expansion draft and pro seasons, but would any of the 3 guys mentioned have to be protected in 2 summers when Seattle comes a-calling?  (Assuming they each play a role on the Leafs roster in some way shape or form this upcoming season)?  Just wondering if that would factor in as well when holding guys back.

Sandin and Liljegren will be exempt, Bracco won't be. Those are locked in now.

 

[slapshot]

I'm not saying that there's definitely no chance of this happening, but if it does Gardiner has to know that he's probably not going to get much if any powerplay time now with Rielly and Barrie ahead of him. So he'd be going into next years free agency market potentially proving that he's healthy but also maybe coming off his worst offensive season in years.

If Gardiner comes back, there?s a fun case to be made that we go 4F1D for PP1, and Gardiner-Barrie back PP2 in a curveball traditional set up so there?s no real game plan for our PP.

Rielly
Matthews-Nylander-Marner
Tavares

Barrie-Gardiner
Spezza-Kerfoot-Johnsson

Not sure why you would put Kerfoot on second PP ahead of Kappy, with Spezza there to take faceoffs? Even Hyman, as a net front prescence might be a better choice?

 

[herman]

I appreciate that the Leafs haven't had a ton of post-season success yet and for some people that's all that would justify such a decision but the idea of someone like Gardiner taking a below market deal to stay with a contender in a city he likes isn't some sort of crazy nonsense to be dismissed as unheard of fantasy.

I just can't see it. Why lock up Gardiner to a long term deal when you have Rielly, Dermott and Sandin coming. Not to mention the possibility of hanging on to Muzzin. Why would Gardiner want a short term deal? Doesn't seem to make sense? I think Babs likes the righty-left 3-3 thing, so I can't see them flipping a lefty to the right side, though I suppose Dermott could do it. As much as some people might like that to happen, including Gardiner, just doesn't seem realistic at all. I think Dubas is just walking a kind PR line, but really knows there is no real room for Jake in the Leafs future plans. I wish him well, think he's a real stand up guy who bleeds blue, so I hope the fans give him (and Kadri) great ovations when he returns. That would show a lot of class, especially in Gardiner's case, with all his trials and tribulations.

Rielly has played with Hainsey, Marincin, and Hunwick since Babcock got here.

 

[herman]

I'm not saying that there's definitely no chance of this happening, but if it does Gardiner has to know that he's probably not going to get much if any powerplay time now with Rielly and Barrie ahead of him. So he'd be going into next years free agency market potentially proving that he's healthy but also maybe coming off his worst offensive season in years.

If Gardiner comes back, there?s a fun case to be made that we go 4F1D for PP1, and Gardiner-Barrie back PP2 in a curveball traditional set up so there?s no real game plan for our PP.

Rielly
Matthews-Nylander-Marner
Tavares

Barrie-Gardiner
Spezza-Kerfoot-Johnsson

Not sure why you would put Kerfoot on second PP ahead of Kappy, with Spezza there to take faceoffs? Even Hyman, as a net front prescence might be a better choice?

Kapanen and Hyman are both PK, and people do get tossed out of the dot once in awhile. Also their value is on the breakaway, which isn?t really the most effective way to score on the PP. (Kapanen?s short selection is poop).

 

[Kin]

Why would Gardiner want a short term deal?

I feel like I've answered this but he may just want to stay with the Leafs. The Leafs may want him because he's better than Ceci.

Seriously guys, all I said was that it's not something that should be dismissed as impossible.

 

[Bullfrog]

I love Gardiner, but wonder if he's somewhat obsolete with our current defense corp. I'd still take him back of course, but someone would have to flip to the right side.

I wonder if NJ (as mentioned earlier) or even joining Kadri in Col makes sense for him.

 

[Kin]

I'd still take him back of course, but someone would have to flip to the right side.

A lot of people have talked about the Left Side/Right Side thing and while I recognize it's a preference of Babcock's to do it that way, I think it's fair to say that while previously Babcock may have made questionable choices among the 5/6/7 guys for that reason, I don't think he's ever actively chosen to make the line-up distinctly worse in service of that goal.

And, to that end, if he was the kind of coach who would make that decision I would think that would be more concerning to Dubas than 100 first round losses to Boston.

 

[Bullfrog]

I'm completely down with that. I think these guys are skilled enough to make the switch. I'm more wondering who would be better suited. My leaning would be to move Gardiner or Dermott to the right side. I'd take Gardiner on the right side over Ceci any day.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I'm completely down with that. I think these guys are skilled enough to make the switch. I'm more wondering who would be better suited. My leaning would be to move Gardiner or Dermott to the right side. I'd take Gardiner on the right side over Ceci any day.

Gardiner's spoken out quite a few times about how his preference is the left side. I think Dermott's almost guaranteed to play on the right now, they started trying him there a few times this past season.

 

[Bates]

I'd still take him back of course, but someone would have to flip to the right side.

A lot of people have talked about the Left Side/Right Side thing and while I recognize it's a preference of Babcock's to do it that way, I think it's fair to say that while previously Babcock may have made questionable choices among the 5/6/7 guys for that reason, I don't think he's ever actively chosen to make the line-up distinctly worse in service of that goal.

And, to that end, if he was the kind of coach who would make that decision I would think that would be more concerning to Dubas than 100 first round losses to Boston.

Last season Rielly, Muzzin, and Gardiner played the left side pretty much exclusively.  Either of them moving to number one or two RD woukd have made the Leaf's D better. So I would say Babs actively made the D worse by sticking to his plan.

 

[Bullfrog]

I'm completely down with that. I think these guys are skilled enough to make the switch. I'm more wondering who would be better suited. My leaning would be to move Gardiner or Dermott to the right side. I'd take Gardiner on the right side over Ceci any day.

Gardiner's spoken out quite a few times about how his preference is the left side. I think Dermott's almost guaranteed to play on the right now, they started trying him there a few times this past season.

Interesting, I hadn't heard that.