2019 Toronto Maple Leafs Offseason Discussion

[princedpw]

Healthy at Christmas this team is rolling:

Johnsson-Matthews-Nylander
Hyman-Tavares-Marner (matchup)
Moore-Kerfoot-Kapanen
Mikheyev-Spezza-Petan

Rielly-Dermott
Muzzin-Barrie (matchup)
Sandin-Ceci

Andersen
Neuvirth

Imagine for a second that Gardiner decide screw it, no one is giving me that contract, I might as well go back to the Leafs:

Gardiner-Rielly
Muzzin-Barrie (matchup)
Dermott-Marincin

And Ceci is sent off to pasture.  We all know that Dermott crushes it when put out against 3rd liners, basically no matter who his partner is.  Marincin takes Hainsey's PK time and improves upon that.

Sure Rielly is better on the left, but Gardiner-Rielly is way better than Rielly-Ceci.  The first two pairs could be put out against anyone. 

 

[Bender]

Rask and Bennington got stronger and stronger as the playoffs went on. No coincidence they had what amounted to load management during the season, around 50 games played I believe. If you can get 30 from your backup that really sets up your starter for playoff success. The Leafs should be good enough that they don't have to ride Freddie for 65.

Overdrive:
Should there be greater concern about the Leafs' backup goalie position?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ae45OyzTs3w

Yeah, I think we should be worried.

I'd rather be in the bottom half of the playoff bracket and have the Leafs backup play 30 games than be #1, I think.

We have Neuvirth. I think that's a decent backup option at this point.

 

[Bender]

Healthy at Christmas this team is rolling:

Johnsson-Matthews-Nylander
Hyman-Tavares-Marner (matchup)
Moore-Kerfoot-Kapanen
Mikheyev-Spezza-Petan

Rielly-Dermott
Muzzin-Barrie (matchup)
Sandin-Ceci

Andersen
Neuvirth

Imagine for a second that Gardiner decide screw it, no one is giving me that contract, I might as well go back to the Leafs:

Gardiner-Rielly
Muzzin-Barrie (matchup)
Dermott-Marincin

And Ceci is sent off to pasture.  We all know that Dermott crushes it when put out against 3rd liners, basically no matter who his partner is.  Marincin takes Hainsey's PK time and improves upon that.

Sure Rielly is better on the left, but Gardiner-Rielly is way better than Rielly-Ceci.  The first two pairs could be put out against anyone.

Man... Marincin. I just can't.

Also, I agree, Gards at a team friendly deal is way better than Ceci at $4.5.

 

[hockeyfan1]

Rask and Bennington got stronger and stronger as the playoffs went on. No coincidence they had what amounted to load management during the season, around 50 games played I believe. If you can get 30 from your backup that really sets up your starter for playoff success. The Leafs should be good enough that they don't have to ride Freddie for 65.

Overdrive:
Should there be greater concern about the Leafs' backup goalie position?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ae45OyzTs3w

Yeah, I think we should be worried.

I'd rather be in the bottom half of the playoff bracket and have the Leafs backup play 30 games than be #1, I think.

We have Neuvirth. I think that's a decent backup option at this point.

No matter who the backup will be, Freddie will still be standing on his head, so to speak.  The difference this year (hopefully) will be that he won?t need to do it as much.

 

[Kin]

This might be a chicken or the egg sort of thing but I really wonder if the lesson of the last few years is that in order to win you need a good enough back-up goalie to spell your #1 for 30 or so games or if it's more that in order to win you need to be confident enough in your team that you think they can win regardless of who's in net. Because a lot of the teams who've gone deep in the playoffs weren't teams that "load managed" so much as they were teams who were forced into starting back-ups because of injuries or poor play by their #1's.

 

[Coco-puffs]

https://theathletic.com/1097985/2019/07/29/mirtle-projecting-the-maple-leafs-roster-and-cap-situation-all-the-way-to-2022-23/

The Leafs are super tight to the cap this season, but things open up nicely in the years after. Defense will definitely be a point of focus, as well as maneuvering around the expansion draft (we're pretty much perfectly set for 7-3-1). Biggest question marks two years down the road are Andersen and Rielly re-ups or replacements and at what cost, and when the first wave of internal defense reinforcements really arrive, if at all.

I'm not sure things really open up that much next year.  It will be nice to not be in LTIR, but we'll have approximately:

53m on 11 Forwards (including Marner at 9m)
7m on 3D (Reilly, Sandin, Lily)
5m on Freddie
1.2m Kessel Retention

So 66.2M on 15 players. And you have approximately 17m to spend, assuming a cap of 83.2m. You still need:

3 Depth Forwards (pencil in 2.7m, as we won't spend big here)
Backup goalie (so 700k - 1m, we won't spend big here)

So now you are left with 13.5 m to fill out the defense.  I'd bank on Dermott getting one of two deals:

~3.4 x 3 (Bridge, will be RFA upon expiry)
~4.5 x 5

So, 9-10m left for 3 defensemen to fill in the rest of the roster:

Rielly - ?
Dermott - ?
Sandin - Lily
?

I'm not sure I'm happy with only having 8-9m to spend on two top 4 D, unless you are REALLY expecting the rookies to step up.


As for the expansion draft, ya we are in a good spot:

The big 4 plus Kapanen, Johnsson, Kerfoot (most likely next 3)
Rielly, Dermott, Top 4 D (Barrie or Muzz if one of them are re-signed- no chance we can re-sign both without moving one of the 7 forwards listed)
Freddie

Sandin and Lily are exempt.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

So now you are left with 13.5 m to fill out the defense.  I'd bank on Dermott getting one of two deals:

~3.4 x 3 (Bridge, will be RFA upon expiry)
~4.5 x 5

I'm really not sure what I would do with Dermott's next contract. So far in his career he's only played sheltered minutes, never played in a top-4 role, never played consistent PP or PK minutes, and has modest point totals. And I'm not really sure that any of those things are going to change much in his 3rd season.

I don't think I'd really want to give him anything more than what Kapanen/Johnsson/Kerfoot got. And if he doesn't start getting PK minutes this season even that's pushing it.

 

[Kin]

I don't think I'd really want to give him anything more than what Kapanen/Johnsson/Kerfoot got. And if he doesn't start getting PK minutes this season even that's pushing it.

Yeah, you might be able to talk me into a Johnsson-esque deal for Dermott but if it's a short term bridge deal, based on what he's done to date, I don't see how that number starts with a 3 instead of a 2.

 

[Coco-puffs]

I don't think I'd really want to give him anything more than what Kapanen/Johnsson/Kerfoot got. And if he doesn't start getting PK minutes this season even that's pushing it.

Yeah, you might be able to talk me into a Johnsson-esque deal for Dermott but if it's a short term bridge deal, based on what he's done to date, I don't see how that number starts with a 3 instead of a 2.

Over the past two years, he's in the Top 60 among d-men in P/60 at 5v5.  He has great shot share and good microstats (ie transition).  Without PP or PK minutes that certainly holds him back from a bigger pay day but I doubt you'd get him to sign for 3 years without it starting with a 3.  Shorter term (ie 2 yrs), I agree it would probably be in the mid 2m range.

Travis Sanheim just inked a 2 yr 3.25m deal and is very close in terms of output rate offensively.  He has had more difficult minutes at 5v5 though (and I haven't looked up his PK minutes).  That would definitely set Dermott's ceiling on a 2 yr deal IMO, unless Dermott knocks it out of the park this season.

 

[herman]

I see Hyman being moved in the summer of 2020 (hello Trevor Moore), so I was ball parking 16M for filling out the defense, 1 big UFA, bridge Dermott, promote Sandin/Liljegren, Hollowell/Lindgren/Duszak gets cycled through the bottom pair, and re-sign Marincin to troll everyone.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/Account4hockey/status/1155906201764470784

I've said before I think New Jersey and Gardiner seem like such a perfect fit. Maybe they want to dump either Vatanen or Severson somewhere first. Although they do have tons of cap space at the moment so I'm not sure why they'd wait.

I do think though that Gardiner coming back here on a 1-year deal is a pipedream. Despite not signing yet I'm sure he'll eventually get a 4-5 year deal for at least $5mil somewhere. It's not the deal he originally wanted but it's still pretty good coin.

 

[Kin]

I think Colorado is a good fit. They've got a lot of cap space and their LD is Girard, Zadorov and Ian Cole(who may be the contract that they're looking to move). Then they could go into the season with Girard-Johnson and Gardiner-Makar as their top 2 pairs.

 

[Coco-puffs]

I see Hyman being moved in the summer of 2020 (hello Trevor Moore), so I was ball parking 16M for filling out the defense, 1 big UFA, bridge Dermott, promote Sandin/Liljegren, Hollowell/Lindgren/Duszak gets cycled through the bottom pair, and re-sign Marincin to troll everyone.

Ok.  If Hyman is moved he'd have to be replaced with a cheap guy, so that does add 1.5m to the picture.  Still looking at 10m or so for two top 4 d-men, unless you are really willing to put one of Sandin or Liljegren in the Top 4.  And if you are, you are basically running 3 rookies if you are cycling in those other names through the bottom pair.  That is really optimistic

 

[herman]

I see Hyman being moved in the summer of 2020 (hello Trevor Moore), so I was ball parking 16M for filling out the defense, 1 big UFA, bridge Dermott, promote Sandin/Liljegren, Hollowell/Lindgren/Duszak gets cycled through the bottom pair, and re-sign Marincin to troll everyone.

Ok.  If Hyman is moved he'd have to be replaced with a cheap guy, so that does add 1.5m to the picture.  Still looking at 10m or so for two top 4 d-men, unless you are really willing to put one of Sandin or Liljegren in the Top 4.  And if you are, you are basically running 3 rookies if you are cycling in those other names through the bottom pair.  That is really optimistic

I trust the steadying presence of Martin Marincin.

 

[Highlander]

I see Hyman being moved in the summer of 2020 (hello Trevor Moore), so I was ball parking 16M for filling out the defense, 1 big UFA, bridge Dermott, promote Sandin/Liljegren, Hollowell/Lindgren/Duszak gets cycled through the bottom pair, and re-sign Marincin to troll everyone.

Ok.  If Hyman is moved he'd have to be replaced with a cheap guy, so that does add 1.5m to the picture.  Still looking at 10m or so for two top 4 d-men, unless you are really willing to put one of Sandin or Liljegren in the Top 4.  And if you are, you are basically running 3 rookies if you are cycling in those other names through the bottom pair.  That is really optimistic

I trust the steadying presence of Martin Marincin.

I only trust the initials of MM

 

[Bill_Berg]

https://twitter.com/Account4hockey/status/1155906201764470784

I've said before I think New Jersey and Gardiner seem like such a perfect fit. Maybe they want to dump either Vatanen or Severson somewhere first. Although they do have tons of cap space at the moment so I'm not sure why they'd wait.

I do think though that Gardiner coming back here on a 1-year deal is a pipedream. Despite not signing yet I'm sure he'll eventually get a 4-5 year deal for at least $5mil somewhere. It's not the deal he originally wanted but it's still pretty good coin.

Bye Ceci!

 

[Guilt Trip]

https://twitter.com/Account4hockey/status/1155906201764470784

I've said before I think New Jersey and Gardiner seem like such a perfect fit. Maybe they want to dump either Vatanen or Severson somewhere first. Although they do have tons of cap space at the moment so I'm not sure why they'd wait.

I do think though that Gardiner coming back here on a 1-year deal is a pipedream. Despite not signing yet I'm sure he'll eventually get a 4-5 year deal for at least $5mil somewhere. It's not the deal he originally wanted but it's still pretty good coin.

Bye Ceci!

If Gardiner signs for anywhere near 5 mill, the Leafs clearly didn't want him back.

 

[Bill_Berg]

Or they didn't anticipate his price dropping that low.

 

[Kin]

Something else to consider is that Gardiner may not be over the moon with the role the Leafs would be offering him. I think we've all generally accepted that the Leafs will be going with 4 forwards and a D on the PP and the PP will be handled by Rielly and Barrie. If some other team is offering Gardiner more of a PP focused role with maybe a defensive partner that would allow him to roam a bit more he may be better situated than he would be here.

 

[ZBBM]

Let's face it, Jake can't be that hot of a commodity.  Top-drawer UFAs aren't still on the market a month after signings open. 

I think his back injury has significantly depressed his value. 

Mind you, if we could swap him out for Ceci at the same rate I'd do it in a New York minute.