2019 Toronto Maple Leafs Offseason Discussion

[herman]

Fair enough. But if the player is available, as Ceci is, that'll be the first thing to try. I do think Reilly and Dermott end up being the pairing at the end of the season.

Sure, but the prospect of giving Ceci real minutes because he's the best available RHD seems like it should be ground zero for re-examining their strategy in that regard.

But, again, I'm willing to see how it plays out. There were alternatives though.

I don't know how many alternatives were PK options that didn't come with term or additional acquisition cost. I didn't really want him on the team, but there are still signs of skill underlying his playing history up until his Ottawa situation, and signing him to a 1-year deal was the simplest way to check a lot of boxes.

 

[Kin]

I don't know how many alternatives were PK options that didn't come with term or additional acquisition cost.

I don't know that either but just the fact that other options may have had additional complications doesn't insulate the team from the reality of the decision they made. Even if these options hadn't proven the way Ceci has that they're capable of being a major part of generally terrible PK units, the Leafs had options.

I didn't really want him on the team, but there are still signs of skill underlying his playing history up until his Ottawa situation, and signing him to a 1-year deal was the simplest way to check a lot of boxes.

But in this analogy some of those boxes only needed checking because the Leafs drew them up. I agree that Ceci is a Right Handed Penalty Killing defenseman and that was something the Leafs management wanted but a car that's on fire is also still technically a car, just one that doesn't really solve any transportation needs your family may have.

 

[herman]

Teehee!

Ceci?s numbers take a turn for the tire fire when he is pushed into the role of replacing Erik Karlsson in the midst of a team meltdown.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/TSNHockey/status/1168923799598850048

MLHS as usual comes in big with the full transcript of this interview. The Marner conversation dominates it but it covers a number of other topics (as seen in the link url): https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2019/09/03/kyle-dubas-on-mitch-marner-negotiations-the-battle-for-jobs-mike-babcocks-security-and-whether-jake-gardiner-returning-is-totally-off-the-table/

 

[herman]

Willy only wanted to be here on a long term deal.

 

[herman]

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2019/09/04/kyle-dubas-on-the-need-to-name-a-captain/

Dubas continues his rounds

 

[Bender]

The Leafs needed an RHD...

I mean, they didn't. Being maniacal about LD-RD splits is a choice they make.

Exactly. The RHD/LHD split in the entire NHL isn't 50/50 so it's asinine to think that every team needs a 50/50 split. I think you can easily make the argument that you just need a LHD who can comfortably play the right side.

 

[Coco-puffs]

Teehee!

Ceci?s numbers take a turn for the tire fire when he is pushed into the role of replacing Erik Karlsson in the midst of a team meltdown.

Unless I'm missing something, Ceci's numbers have been terrible for the last 4 seasons, and even before that when his CF% was close to 50%, his relative numbers were negative and he had cushy deployment (his first two years in the league)

That said, his D-partners have been a tire-fire for years, and he's been tasked with facing the oppositions best.  His only adequate partner seems to have been Chabot over the last 4 years and they had a +3.3% Rel CF (I'm sure most of that was Chabot though, and they were still under 50% thanks to the tire fire of a team they had last year).  His most common partner over the last 4 years- Dion Phaneuf, followed by Borowiecki and Lajoie. That's 50% of his TOI with terrible players and the rest of the his partners are bad as well except Chabot (10% TOI), Karlsson (1.5%), and Methot (6%).

All that to say, whether he plays with Rielly or Muzzin, he's never had a partner that good (except for 1.5% of his icetime).  That doesn't mean I'm expecting a complete 180, but I am expecting better results than what he had in Ottawa- and dare I say it- better results than Zaitsev.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Exactly. The RHD/LHD split in the entire NHL isn't 50/50 so it's asinine to think that every team needs a 50/50 split. I think you can easily make the argument that you just need a LHD who can comfortably play the right side.

Since I don't want to start working quite yet I decided to look at every playoff teams defence pairings in the playoffs. Using Dobber's tool and looking at just the three most frequent pairings the Leafs were the only Eastern conference team to use two lefties on a pairing together in the playoffs. And they did it with two of their three pairings.

Carolina had a R-R pairing, but they're in a pretty unique situation with 3 high-end righties. Dallas also had a R-R pairing on their 3rd pair that wasn't used very often. Calgary and Vegas both had a L-L split on their top pairing. But among 15 playoff teams (not counting the Leafs), those were the only pairings that I found to deviate from the LHD-RHD split. That means 91% of the most common defence pairings during the playoffs saw defencemen on their strong sides.

When I started this I didn't actually expect the number to be that high. I still think you're better off moving a good lefty to the right side as opposed to using a bad righty, but clearly more and more teams (especially the good ones) are trying very hard to get that ideal split.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/thepointhockey/status/1169963824306368512

Guess who is number 1

 

[herman]

Exactly. The RHD/LHD split in the entire NHL isn't 50/50 so it's asinine to think that every team needs a 50/50 split. I think you can easily make the argument that you just need a LHD who can comfortably play the right side.

Since I don't want to start working quite yet I decided to look at every playoff teams defence pairings in the playoffs. Using Dobber's tool and looking at just the three most frequent pairings the Leafs were the only Eastern conference team to use two lefties on a pairing together in the playoffs. And they did it with two of their three pairings.

Carolina had a R-R pairing, but they're in a pretty unique situation with 3 high-end righties. Dallas also had a R-R pairing on their 3rd pair that wasn't used very often. Calgary and Vegas both had a L-L split on their top pairing. But among 15 playoff teams (not counting the Leafs), those were the only pairings that I found to deviate from the LHD-RHD split. That means 91% of the most common defence pairings during the playoffs saw defencemen on their strong sides.

When I started this I didn't actually expect the number to be that high. I still think you're better off moving a good lefty to the right side as opposed to using a bad righty, but clearly more and more teams (especially the good ones) are trying very hard to get that ideal split.

According to my very cursory Capfriendly search, the defense is split 58L/42R. I want to do a bit of a dive into the micro stats of the players playing on their offside. Not sure if there will be any test cases where one season they play strong side and others not.

 

[herman]

https://theathletic.com/1184922/2019/09/09/maple-leafs-training-camp-roster-battles-the-forwards/

Here are the nuts and bolts of a scouting report that Cody Franson, a former Leaf and KHL teammate of Mikheyev?s, offered on the Russian winger via email:

• Great skater
• Goal scorer?s eye for the net
• Reads the game well
• Competitive
• Good with the details of the game
• Capable and responsible in the defensive end

Franson called him a ?high potential player? and thinks Mikheyev might really blossom with skilled linemates. Otherwise, he figures Mikheyev can jolt a third line.

I'm looking forward to Cody Franson, Pro Scout of the Toronto Maple Leafs.

 

[hockeyfan1]

https://theathletic.com/1184922/2019/09/09/maple-leafs-training-camp-roster-battles-the-forwards/

Here are the nuts and bolts of a scouting report that Cody Franson, a former Leaf and KHL teammate of Mikheyev?s, offered on the Russian winger via email:

• Great skater
• Goal scorer?s eye for the net
• Reads the game well
• Competitive
• Good with the details of the game
• Capable and responsible in the defensive end

Franson called him a ?high potential player? and thinks Mikheyev might really blossom with skilled linemates. Otherwise, he figures Mikheyev can jolt a third line.

I'm looking forward to Cody Franson, Pro Scout of the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Mikheyev is what?s called an ?offensive prodder?.  He may just be the perfect accompaniment adding to the Leafs offensive style.

https://theathletic.com/1089655/2019/07/23/the-concept-of-offensive-prodding-and-why-its-a-trait-the-leafs-should-like-about-ilya-mikheyevs-game/

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/Account4hockey/status/1171517598153887747
lolwhut

 

[CarltonTheBear]

lolwhut

Screw that, Dubas should go the other way with it: "Today I'm proud to announce that Auston Matthews will be the next captain of the Toronto Maple Leafs. Auston is Toronto's franchise player, our most valuable player, our most important player, our best centre, our best goal scorer, our best looking player, our best winger (if he played that position), and clearly the player who loves Toronto the most".

 

[herman]

lolwhut

Screw that, Dubas should go the other way with it: "Today I'm proud to announce that Auston Matthews will be the next captain of the Toronto Maple Leafs. Auston is Toronto's franchise player, our most valuable player, our most important player, our best centre, our best goal scorer, our best looking player, our best winger (if he played that position), and clearly the player who loves Toronto the most".

I get the sense Dubas kind of wants to do that but is too principled. Every time he wants to say something petty he immediately reiterated how great a person Mitch is and how good his agent is to work with, which he ends up saying a lot.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/kristen_shilton/status/1171825966156525579

"Nic, hey, it's Jason Spezza. Listen I asked Babcock if I could wear #19 this season and he said nobody else had it. I told him I was pretty sure you wore it and he said, and I quote, "I've never heard of Nic Petan before in my life". I know this is pretty awkward but if you give me the number I promise I'll put in a good word for you with him at camp."

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/kristen_shilton/status/1171825966156525579

"Nic, hey, it's Jason Spezza. Listen I asked Babcock if I could wear #19 this season and he said nobody else had it. I told him I was pretty sure you wore it and he said, and I quote, "I've never heard of Nic Petan before in my life". I know this is pretty awkward but if you give me the number I promise I'll put in a good word for you with him at camp." to let you wear my jersey and Parent Trap Babs for every Monday and Thursday games.

 

[disco]

T-3 weeks to opening night yeahhhh boyyyeeee

 

[hockeyfan1]

?These are the...?Days of our Leafs?...?

Chronicles in the days in the life of our hockey team:

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2019/9/12/20850258/days-of-our-leafs-toronto-maple-leafs-as-soap-opera