2023-24 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion

[ZBBM]

No worries, guys, Keefe said last night and today that the Leafs have been one of the best teams in the league 5 on 5 recently.  He's very very very happy with the way things are going along, except you know the winning part.  But no worries!

 

[cw]

Detroit won tonight. Look who is in a wildcard spot ...
https://www.nhl.com/standings/2024-01-17/wildcard

Really wasn't expecting that. Detroit followed up a 1-6-0 stretch by going 6-1-1. Leafs meanwhile went from going 4-0-0 to 0-3-1.

Leafs do still have 2 games in hand though. Just gotta, you know, win them.

The other part that got me is the five teams immediately below them in the wildcard race are within 3 points of the Leafs. Leafs have games in hand on only two of them (plus Detroit). As you know, only two wildcard teams make the playoffs.

With the level of competition the Leafs face in the next five games, I'd say they may be in a real dog fight for a wildcard spot over the next few days or weeks if they're not already in it.

As much as I realized last summer that they were not as good as last year, I expected that they were going to be a second tier contender. For me, to find them in this position is a little shocking.

So I'm beating the bushes, trying to figure this situation out. Everyone is talking about how a dman could help. So I looked at UFA dmen from the bottom 8 teams who played 18 mins or more per game (top 4) as potential trade targets:

CapFriendly UFA Defensemen

There are none!

Ilya Lyubushkin ANA 17 mins/game
Zach Bogosian MIN 16.5 mins/game

There isn't a lot of help yet - more teams have to fall out of contention.
The bidding on what little is available would probably be insane right now.

Maybe they can shop for a PKer .. wish I knew the league better to find one.

I'm not a gigantic fan of Keefe. I do not dislike him. I think he's a decent coach. But to some extent, he's been screwed over some. He's going to be on the firing line and a lot of the reasons he is were not of his doing (I know, .. like so many NHL coaches).

The bigger culprit here is what Treliving and his predecessor(s) did. I have to cut Treliving some slack because last summer, he inherited Dubas' situation. The UFA cupboard for what they needed was pretty bare when combined with their limited cap situation. As they tried to re-sign O'Rielly, Schenn, etc, other teams snatched up UFAs. Some of this was in the cards last June no matter who the GM was.

They're in a tough spot.

 

[Arn]

I?ve no real proof of this, but it feels to me like all the teams who?ve eventually contended for a cup have done so while having a random season where they?ve completely stunk in the middle of the contending run, to the extent of missing playoffs.

One example springing to mind Tampa in about 2017 a year after being in the final missed completely then made the conference final the next year again.

Chicago won a cup then went out in the first round two years then won it again.

 

[herman]

No worries, guys, Keefe said last night and today that the Leafs have been one of the best teams in the league 5 on 5 recently.  He's very very very happy with the way things are going along, except you know the winning part.  But no worries!

He's not wrong. But it is just the reverse of the early parts of the season when we played most of the game like poop and pulled away with a late win anyway (Matthews/Nylander reasons), whereas now we are playing well most of the game but hitting posts and some mistakes are ending up in the net towards the end of the game.

The reason is kind of always the same though: the back end isn't getting the puck to the forwards fast enough, and the forwards are forcing a lot of pointless plays when they do get into the zone (because defenses are mostly set up due to the aforementioned slow breakout). Occasionally we spring a Nylander/Gregor when they stretch the NZ. In the DZ it's been a lot of controller-disconnects from previously relied upon personnel (78, 64).

 

[YYZ]

I?ve no real proof of this, but it feels to me like all the teams who?ve eventually contended for a cup have done so while having a random season where they?ve completely stunk in the middle of the contending run, to the extent of missing playoffs.

One example springing to mind Tampa in about 2017 a year after being in the final missed completely then made the conference final the next year again.

Chicago won a cup then went out in the first round two years then won it again.

In 2009, the Penguins were five points out of a playoff spot in the middle of February.  They fired Therrien, promoted Bylsma and went on to win the cup. 

 

[Guilt Trip]

The bigger culprit here is what Treliving and his predecessor(s) did. I have to cut Treliving some slack because last summer, he inherited Dubas' situation. The UFA cupboard for what they needed was pretty bare when combined with their limited cap situation. As they tried to re-sign O'Rielly, Schenn, etc, other teams snatched up UFAs. Some of this was in the cards last June no matter who the GM was.

TRE came into a pretty good situation. He had 17m to address the team's needs. While the UFA market wasn't a banner year there still was some D that would have improved over what Klingberg brought...Dumba, Graves, Clifton, Gostisbehere, Gustafsson, were all affordable.
I have no issue with the Bert, Domi and D depth signings but the rest, not so much. Reaves, Kampf, Klingberg were failures before the ink dried. That's 7.65M in wasted space.

 

[L K]

https://twitter.com/jtbourne/status/1747720465018171640

But then there?s O-zone passing success rate, a stat in which the top teams are Colorado, Edmonton, Pittsburgh, Winnipeg and the NY Rangers. The Toronto Maple Leafs sit 32nd there, just behind Philadelphia, with a success rate about 8 per cent worse than the Avalanche.

To really hammer this home with numbers: The Leafs are also 32nd in the NHL in ?offensive touches success rate? in the O-zone as well (the previous three years they were 8th, 13th, and 7th).

To summarize, the Leafs have the worst O-zone passing success rate and the worst O-zone touches, which ends up as the 24th ranked team in O-zone possession time. You do not have to be a hound dog to sniff out that connection. If you?re looking for ways to protect leads in the third period as the Leafs are, you can start by making less hope passes that become turnovers, and prioritize playing in the offensive zone more.

Terrific piece here from Justin Bourne, who always tends to nail these "System Analyst" posts.

Just read it. Very good analysis by Bourne.
I also listened to Overdrive and they had Jason Strudwick talking about the game. His thinks the biggest issue is the D core. Something we've thought all along. Didn't come out and blame Brodie but said the issue is they're asking him to do something he's not capable of anymore. No argument from me but in the meantime, they can take Bourne's advice and get by, but Tre needs to improve the D at some point.

I completely understand that Liljegren might not be up to the task but we know that Brodie isn't at this point.  Give Liljegren a run of games with Rielly and give Brodie/Gio the easier minutes.  If it doesn't work, we already know we have a bigger problem.  If it does work in our favour, it makes it easier to identified 2nd pairing guys as the target to upgrade the blueline.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I completely understand that Liljegren might not be up to the task but we know that Brodie isn't at this point.  Give Liljegren a run of games with Rielly and give Brodie/Gio the easier minutes.  If it doesn't work, we already know we have a bigger problem.  If it does work in our favour, it makes it easier to identified 2nd pairing guys as the target to upgrade the blueline.

Honestly I wouldn't mind giving Benoit a run with Rielly, while having Liljegren come out with him for things like offensive face-offs or late period pushes if the team needs a goal. It probably won't work out and it'd very much obviously be a stop-gap measure, but at the same time I don't think anyone expected Schenn to look as good alongside Rielly either. Mo obviously has a history with playing with those type of defencemen so he knows what he's in for.

Next I'd like to see Brodie with McCabe, but with Brodie moving to the left side on that pairing. He's obviously made a career out of being able to play his off side but I've always felt that defencemen who generally succeed there are typically the ones who are really good skaters. And Brodie used to be a really good skater. To put it bluntly he's not anymore. I think you gotta see what he can do on his proper side, especially if there's any plans on trying to bring him back after this season on a discounted contract. At this point McCabe's the better skater and he's actually looked pretty good playing on the right.

 

[azzurri63]

No worries, guys, Keefe said last night and today that the Leafs have been one of the best teams in the league 5 on 5 recently.  He's very very very happy with the way things are going along, except you know the winning part.  But no worries!

Listening to him and Marner are enough to stop cheering for this team. Both are delusional.

 

[Guilt Trip]

No worries, guys, Keefe said last night and today that the Leafs have been one of the best teams in the league 5 on 5 recently.  He's very very very happy with the way things are going along, except you know the winning part.  But no worries!

Listening to him and Marner are enough to stop cheering for this team. Both are delusional.

I don't get why people get upset over what's said to the media and I don't blame the players for not saying much. It's funny how almost every tweet or whatever from Marner left this part out.

https://twitter.com/KwnStorm/status/1747693134073512029

 

[cw]

The bigger culprit here is what Treliving and his predecessor(s) did. I have to cut Treliving some slack because last summer, he inherited Dubas' situation. The UFA cupboard for what they needed was pretty bare when combined with their limited cap situation. As they tried to re-sign O'Rielly, Schenn, etc, other teams snatched up UFAs. Some of this was in the cards last June no matter who the GM was.

TRE came into a pretty good situation. He had 17m to address the team's needs. While the UFA market wasn't a banner year there still was some D that would have improved over what Klingberg brought...Dumba, Graves, Clifton, Gostisbehere, Gustafsson, were all affordable.
I have no issue with the Bert, Domi and D depth signings but the rest, not so much. Reaves, Kampf, Klingberg were failures before the ink dried. That's 7.65M in wasted space.

Dumba they tried for.
The Hockey News: Report: Maple Leafs 'Wanted' Defenseman Matt Dumba During Free Agency This Summer

Graves was left handed top 4 - not a great fit with McCabe/Rielly as they wanted a righty
Ditto for Gostisbehere
I'm sure they knew McCabe could play the right side but they also knew he preferred the left

Clifton was a righty but 5-6 - they wanted top 4
Ditto for Gustafsson as a 5-6 (I probably would have re-signed him over Klingberg though they might have said goodbye to Gustafsson before July 1 expecting they would get someone else)
Scott Mayfield wanted to stay with the Islanders and basically came to terms just before free agency
Gudas - Leafs tried. He didn't want to play in Canada - especially in Toronto due to media

These guys had to want to come to Toronto, pay the taxes, etc. Accept the media scrutiny.

On Jul 1, all the UFAs are falling like dominos. It's a musical chairs scramble. The dollars, term, talent, etc all has to fit.

Dumba was the only fit - a top 4 righty who will to come to Toronto but they couldn't agree on the number/terms. He didn't get the contract he wanted so he signed a one year deal with Arizona where he lives in the off season

The problem is, as we are seeing now, there were not a lot of these guys to go around. Teams are locking them up before they become UFAs and lost for nothing.

They need to bury Calgary tonight to get Tanev 2 pts closer to the trade market

 

[CarltonTheBear]

TRE came into a pretty good situation. He had 17m to address the team's needs. While the UFA market wasn't a banner year there still was some D that would have improved over what Klingberg brought...Dumba, Graves, Clifton, Gostisbehere, Gustafsson, were all affordable.
I have no issue with the Bert, Domi and D depth signings but the rest, not so much. Reaves, Kampf, Klingberg were failures before the ink dried. That's 7.65M in wasted space.

The biggest, most obvious change that Treliving made to this team in comparison to the past years is swinging the pendulum from defensive depth players to offensive depth players. And a good chunk of that $17mil was used to accomplish that. It was a good idea in theory, but just simply hasn't worked out (something can also be said about a number of past mistakes). Defensive metrics are down across the board, which is to be expected with tha shift in mentality, but offensively the team is virtually the exact same as it was at this point last season. GF/60 is 2.73, and xGF/60 is 2.74. Last season after 42 games they were sitting at 2.75 GF/60 and 2.76 xGF/60. Powerplay similarly is not much different while the PK's taken a big hit.

The second biggest decision Treliving made was keeping Keefe as coach, and maybe it was unwise for both of those things to happen. Keefe's entire NHL coaching career has seen him rely heavily on the types of defensive responsible and low maintenance players that Treliving shied away from. At times he had an entire bottom-6 made up of those types of players as his disposal and now he's arguably got just two of them that fit that description. I think you can see Keefe as a great coach that a number of NHL teams would be happy to have, but at the same time think that this specific roster isn't one that his coaching methods are best suited for.

It feels like there's almost a disconnect between how Treliving wanted this team to play and what Keefe would ultimately prefer. And I'll admit that my next point is somewhat speculation but I wonder if that disconnect was/is also there with how Nylander should be used this season. Keefe made it clear at the time: the idea of playing Nylander at centre came from Treliving this offseason. And that potentially would have been a BIG shift in the roster, and one that Treliving's other offseason moves likely revolved around. Keefe threw his bosses idea out the window after 2 preseason games despite saying that that's exactly what wouldn't happen. I often wonder a) does Treliving ever think about what the team would look like if that idea was given any runway whatsoever, and b) if Keefe isn't going to go through with that idea, will Treliving eventually want to find a coach that will?

 

[Guilt Trip]

Dumba was the only fit - a top 4 righty who will to come to Toronto but they couldn't agree on the number/terms. He didn't get the contract he wanted so he signed a one year deal with Arizona where he lives in the off season

Dumba signed in August for 3.9M. Kling was signed July 1. Sounds more like Tre didn't try very hard or panicked. Just because the pool is shallow doesn't mean you blow your space and knowing McCabe can play the right doesn't limit them to just looking at RD. Gostisbehere also plays both sides. 
Not saying everyone would want to be here because we don't know but not signing Klingberg would have been a better move because it would have given him cap space. Something they could have used to trade for Zadorov.

 

[Guilt Trip]

It feels like there's almost a disconnect between how Treliving wanted this team to play and what Keefe would ultimately prefer. And I'll admit that my next point is somewhat speculation but I wonder if that disconnect was/is also there with how Nylander should be used this season. Keefe made it clear at the time: the idea of playing Nylander at centre came from Treliving this offseason. And that potentially would have been a BIG shift in the roster, and one that Treliving's other offseason moves likely revolved around. Keefe threw his bosses idea out the window after 2 preseason games despite saying that that's exactly what wouldn't happen. I often wonder a) does Treliving ever think about what the team would look like if that idea was given any runway whatsoever, and b) if Keefe isn't going to go through with that idea, will Treliving eventually want to find a coach that will?

The issue was Minten played so well in the pre season and made the team so there was a chance he'd take over as 3C. Problem solved right? Wrong, Willy went on a heater to start the year, 12pts in first 8 while Minten struggled. There's no way Keefe is going to say hey, let's try him at centre now.
If Tre is wondering what it would look like he'd make it clear to Keefe that he needed to try it. Tre is still his boss.

 

[cw]

Dumba was the only fit - a top 4 righty who will to come to Toronto but they couldn't agree on the number/terms. He didn't get the contract he wanted so he signed a one year deal with Arizona where he lives in the off season

Dumba signed in August for 3.9M. Kling was signed July 1. Sounds more like Tre didn't try very hard or panicked. Just because the pool is shallow doesn't mean you blow your space and knowing McCabe can play the right doesn't limit them to just looking at RD. Gostisbehere also plays both sides. 
Not saying everyone would want to be here because we don't know but not signing Klingberg would have been a better move because it would have given him cap space. Something they could have used to trade for Zadorov.

Klingberg was a significant risk because they knew or should have known his prior surgery was on the outer boundaries of how long it lasts. I might have panicked too because UFA deals were dropping fast and furious on July 1. As that dust settled, there's Klingberg and no one else ...

Gustavsson was not top four but he could give them PP minutes plus 5-6 minutes - so pseudo top 4 for #1 mil (or less). That's what he's doing with the Rangers 15.5 mins ES 1.5 mins PP. 17 mins instead of 18-20 but they save $3 mil on the cap.

That might be something for them to consider now. For example, a right handed PP guy could relieve Rielly on the PP and they could use those Rielly minutes on ES or PK. So they might get some improvement defensively with a player that shouldn't cost them a 1st rounder if that player can provide some ES mins in a 5-6 pairing ... Then they could try to find similar help for the PK with a 3/4th liner who won't cost that much in picks.

I wonder if they'll look for a younger RH dman with RFA contract term and trade one of Cowan/Minten/1stc plus - overpay - to get that or get one with salary retention. I fear that but wonder if it is more probable.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

If Tre is wondering what it would look like he'd make it clear to Keefe that he needed to try it. Tre is still his boss.

I don't know that you want a GM telling a coach that he needs to try anything.

 

[Guilt Trip]

If Tre is wondering what it would look like he'd make it clear to Keefe that he needed to try it. Tre is still his boss.

I don't know that you want a GM telling a coach that he needs to try anything.

GMs and coaches talk all the time. The lineup isn't 100% all on Keefe. He has the final say being the head coach but gets input from others.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

If Tre is wondering what it would look like he'd make it clear to Keefe that he needed to try it. Tre is still his boss.

I don't know that you want a GM telling a coach that he needs to try anything.

Hey, tell that to Brad Pitt in Moneyball. I'm waiting for Treliving to start trading away centres.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

If Tre is wondering what it would look like he'd make it clear to Keefe that he needed to try it. Tre is still his boss.

I don't know that you want a GM telling a coach that he needs to try anything.

GMs and coaches talk all the time. The lineup isn't 100% all on Keefe. He has the final say being the head coach but gets input from others.

Sure. But making it clear that a coach needs to try something is not in a general manager's job description. Nor should it be.

 

[Frank E]

If Tre is wondering what it would look like he'd make it clear to Keefe that he needed to try it. Tre is still his boss.

I don't know that you want a GM telling a coach that he needs to try anything.

GMs and coaches talk all the time. The lineup isn't 100% all on Keefe. He has the final say being the head coach but gets input from others.

Sure. But making it clear that a coach needs to try something is not in a general manager's job description. Nor should it be.

Well, that's not quite true.

Sure there's some leeway and separation of duties, but Tre is still the General Manager.  If Keefe doesn't tow the line, Keefe is out.

Everybody has a boss, and if you don't like the direction your boss wants you to take, you can resign.

If Keefe were to put Matthews in net because he thought that would be a good idea, I'm pretty sure Keefe would find out how long his leash actually is.