Armchair GM 2016-2017

[herman]

Definitely going to come down to price on this one. If he's asking near what Shipachev got, I'd be inclined to pass. If he's willing to come over on a cheaper short-term "show me" type deal, I'd go for it.

There's some wooing overhead here, but it should come lower than Shipachyov's (and Radulov's). a) winger, b) no expansion team markup, c) scored slightly fewer points than Shipachyov. Other teams in the running: VGK (who appear to have offered him a 2-year deal <$9M), MTL, his old KHL team (but they seem to really be jumping ship).

He'd get a pretty plum spot here if he picked us.

 

[herman]

The other KHL player we were in on, from earlier in the season: Vladimir Tkachyov.

Probably most well known for this: https://streamable.com/x4ps
Should come in handy seeing as how we were nearly goose eggs on the shootout.

 

[bustaheims]

The other KHL player we were in on, from earlier in the season: Vladimir Tkachyov.

Probably most well known for this: https://streamable.com/x4ps
Should come in handy seeing as how we were nearly goose eggs on the shootout.

I believe he signed a KHL deal a few days ago.

EDIT: He did - 2 year deal.

http://www.letsgoleafs.com/2017/05/03/vladimir-tkachyov-re-signs-in-the-khl/

 

[herman]

I believe he signed a KHL deal a few days ago.

EDIT: He did - 2 year deal.

http://www.letsgoleafs.com/2017/05/03/vladimir-tkachyov-re-signs-in-the-khl/

*shakes fist at Olympics garbage

 

[AvroArrow]

Looking at the current draft order, 5 teams stick out as potential targets to either pickup another 1st rounder or move up if certain players start to fall a bit:

Florida @ 10
LA @ 11
Jets @ 13
Tampa @ 14
Isles @ 15

All should be targeting playoffs and might be open to moving their picks or dropping down.

Trade bait includes:

JvR
Bozak (who I believe the Leafs will hold onto unless someone overpays for him)
Leivo
Leipsic
Carrick
Marincin
Picks

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

People keep talking about the big three rookies and their pay day. I wonder if all three take shorter term deals for mid tier money in the interests of remaining on a deeper, more competitive team.

All three could take 4-6 million on 2-4 year deals and take Toews and Kane money on their third deals?

Probably a pipe dream, we shall see.

 

[Kin]

People keep talking about the big three rookies and their pay day. I wonder if all three take shorter term deals for mid tier money in the interests of remaining on a deeper, more competitive team.

All three could take 4-6 million on 2-4 year deals and take Toews and Kane money on their third deals?

Probably a pipe dream, we shall see.

Paying 3 players market rate second contracts isn't really an impediment to a team being competitive. In fact, if you look at what Kane/Toews got on their second deals the length of keeping them signed at those relatively low rates(which still would be a higher % of the cap than the numbers you're talking about) was probably was a major reason why Chicago was able to build the team they did.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

People keep talking about the big three rookies and their pay day. I wonder if all three take shorter term deals for mid tier money in the interests of remaining on a deeper, more competitive team.

All three could take 4-6 million on 2-4 year deals and take Toews and Kane money on their third deals?

Probably a pipe dream, we shall see.

Paying 3 players market rate second contracts isn't really an impediment to a team being competitive. In fact, if you look at what Kane/Toews got on their second deals the length of keeping them signed at those relatively low rates(which still would be a higher % of the cap than the numbers you're talking about) was probably was a major reason why Chicago was able to build the team they did.

If Matthews, Marner and Nylander's next deals pay them a combined 15 million as opposed to say 22.5-25, it would allow the team to be more competitive for longer, no?

I'm probably missing what you're saying. Sorry.

 

[Kin]

If Matthews, Marner and Nylander's next deals pay them a combined 15 million as opposed to say 22.5-25, it would allow the team to be more competitive for longer, no?

I'm probably missing what you're saying. Sorry.

Well, you said they would be 2-4 year deals after which they'd get Kane/Toews money on their third deals(I'm assuming this doesn't mean Kane/Toews 2nd deal money).

So assuming their third deals pay them an average of 8.5 each is this total combined cap hit:

Years 1-3: 15
Years 4-6: 25.5

Really make the team more long term competitive than

Years 1-6: 22.5

It seems to me like the only savings you're talking about would be in the early years, when the team doesn't really need to save it, and in years 7+ but even then the long term savings only figure to be the difference of whatever you figure the difference would be between combined cap hit of the third deals they sign in each scenario.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

If Matthews, Marner and Nylander's next deals pay them a combined 15 million as opposed to say 22.5-25, it would allow the team to be more competitive for longer, no?

I'm probably missing what you're saying. Sorry.

Well, you said they would be 2-4 year deals after which they'd get Kane/Toews money on their third deals(I'm assuming this doesn't mean Kane/Toews 2nd deal money).

So assuming their third deals pay them an average of 8.5 each is this total combined cap hit:

Years 1-3: 15
Years 4-6: 25.5

Really make the team more long term competitive than

Years 1-6: 22.5

It seems to me like the only savings you're talking about would be in the early years, when the team doesn't really need to save it, and in years 7+ but even then the long term savings only figure to be the difference of whatever you figure the difference would be between combined cap hit of the third deals they sign in each scenario.

This is where we disagree I guess, from next season until the expiry of Marner and Matthews entry level deal is basically the "first" window the team has to really challenge. If the Leafs can supplement the roster between now and then and then save approximately 10 million combined on their second deals, they will have a longer window with which to really load up the team and try to win the cup.

I guess my overall point being that as soon as the Leafs get to the point where the trio is making $25million they are probably going to have depth concerns at the bottom of the lineup. They'd need to fill out significant portions of the lineup with low-cost players at that point and that's something that provides a little less certainty for a team looking to compete.

I don't think the Leafs are going to sell the farm, but I definitely think we've moved into the next stage of the rebuild and management will be looking make hay while they have three budding superstars on ELC's.

I'm sure you'll have a very well thought out counter point Nik, I'm mostly parroting the likes of @Mirtle(much less eloquently) here when it comes to the overall roster makeup projections going forward.

 

[Kin]

I don't really have a counter-argument because I guess I'm just not getting your point. It seems like you're saying that somehow structuring deals so that the financial advantage the team gets is as soon as possible(the first few years after the Marner/Matthews ELC deals are up) somehow provides a longer term benefit than deals where the financial savings would be down the road. Aren't they better served long term to pay less in the long term rather than the short?

Also if you get the three of them signed to second deals where they have a combined cap hit of 21 million or so I guess I don't see that as automatically resulting in depth problems. Especially considering they don't have any particularly expensive pieces anywhere else.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

I don't really have a counter-argument because I guess I'm just not getting your point. It seems like you're saying that somehow structuring deals so that the financial advantage the team gets is as soon as possible(the first few years after the Marner/Matthews ELC deals are up) somehow provides a longer term benefit than deals where the financial savings would be down the road. Aren't they better served long term to pay less in the long term rather than the short?

Also if you get the three of them signed to second deals where they have a combined cap hit of 21 million or so I guess I don't see that as automatically resulting in depth problems. Especially considering they don't have any particularly expensive pieces anywhere else.

I think they'll be dynamic offensively enough that a number of guys will be looking for around the $4million mark after their ELC's and over time that's too much to be paying depth parts of your lineup, they'll be forced to cut parts off via trade and hope that what's coming in the pipeline will be able to replicate the production, as Chicago and L.A. discovered this inevitably over time catches up with you and it means you're surrounding you stars with guys like Richard Panik instead of Brandon Saad.

So basically, the less you pay the triplets in years 1-5/6, the deeper the rest of your lineup can be in terms of real talent you've developed and potentially some supplemental impactful free agent/trade acquisitions.

The triplets are going to get paid, the lower you keep their salary, the better the rest of your lineup can be.

 

[Kin]

I think they'll be dynamic offensively enough that a number of guys will be looking for around the $4million mark after their ELC's and over time that's too much to be paying depth parts of your lineup, they'll be forced to cut parts off via trade and hope that what's coming in the pipeline will be able to replicate the production, as Chicago and L.A. discovered this inevitably over time catches up with you and it means you're surrounding you stars with guys like Richard Panik instead of Brandon Saad.

So basically, the less you pay the triplets in years 1-5/6, the deeper the rest of your lineup can be in terms of real talent you've developed and potentially some supplemental impactful free agent/trade acquisitions.

The triplets are going to get paid, the lower you keep their salary, the better the rest of your lineup can be.

Right, I get the fundamental concept of "the less you pay your stars, the more money you have for depth". Where you're losing me is the idea that paying them less in years 1-3 post-ELCs but more in years 4-6 post-ELCs is better in the long term than, say, a 6 year second contract that spreads that money out.

I mean, let's get specific here. The first three years post-ELC for Marner and Matthews will be 19-20, 20-21 and 21-22. What I'm saying is that they need the cap savings the least in those years because those are also the years where they already have Rielly, Kadri and Andersen locked up at pretty reasonable rates. Under what I think you're proposing in the summer of '22 the Leafs would have to re-sign Kadri and Rielly and start paying Marner and Matthews 3rd contract money.

So like I said, I get why paying the three of them less between 2019-2022 could be beneficial if the team wants to build for the immediate future with UFA signings but long-term it seems you're asking for a ton of cap trouble all at once after they all hit the five or six year mark. 

Right? I mean say what you will about Chicago or LA now but they are still sort of the gold standard for team building and their cap problems didn't really start until Kane, Toews and Kopitar started getting their big 3rd contract money. It seems like you're arguing for Marner/Matthews/Nylander to get to their third contracts sooner rather than later.

 

[Kin]

So obviously we'll have to wait and see how things shake out but if there's sort of a vague plan to move JVR this year, I'd definitely explore TJ Oshie or Justin Williams as short term replacements who could be open to team friendly deals.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

So obviously we'll have to wait and see how things shake out but if there's sort of a vague plan to move JVR this year, I'd definitely explore TJ Oshie or Justin Williams as short term replacements who could be open to team friendly deals.

I can't see Oshie being open to a team friendly deal. He's going to cash in hard this offseason. 30 year old who just had a career year (playing with two of the best players on the planet). He's definitely getting a contract that will be quickly regretted by the team who signs it.

Williams I would look into yeah. Although as a righty/right-winger Babcock would need to be open to moving Nylander to the left side or centre to make room.

 

[mr grieves]

Mirtle had a good article in TheAthletic suggesting that the Leafs ought to use some of their ~$15m in cap space to do something short term and big at forward -- since pickings on D are so slim. Thorton, Marleau, or Williams on a 2-3 year deal would be a nice bridge to moving out Bozak and JvR.

 

[AvroArrow]

Marleau - Thornton - Marner

Could be a pretty good line, assuming Marleau and Thornton still have gas in the tank.

 

[bustaheims]

Marleau - Thornton - Marner

Could be a pretty good line, assuming Marleau and Thornton still have gas in the tank.

Marner could circle the rink twice before Thornton got out of the defensive zone.

 

[AvroArrow]

Marleau - Thornton - Marner

Could be a pretty good line, assuming Marleau and Thornton still have gas in the tank.

Marner could circle the rink twice before Thornton got out of the defensive zone.

Is he actually that bad now, or is it just exaggeration for comedic effect?
(I know he was never fast, but he wasn't ever Jason Allison slow either)

 

[bustaheims]

Is he actually that bad now, or is it just exaggeration for comedic effect?
(I know he was never fast, but he wasn't ever Jason Allison slow either)

Age and injuries have slowed him down pretty seriously. He'll be coming back from major knee surgery, too.