Armchair GM 2016-2017

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Elliotte Friedman had some interesting thoughts on the potential McDavid extension, it might be worth keeping in mind regarding our triplets too.

We?ve all assumed the Oilers will give their captain eight years at eleventy-billion dollars if necessary, but allow me to paint an alternate scenario. What if McDavid opts for the Sidney Crosby-Patrick Kane-Evgeni Malkin-Steven Stamkos-Jonathan Toews route? All five of those players took five-year terms on their second contracts, opening the door for another massive deal around age 25-27. Crosby?s second contract totalled $43.5 million, and his third is $104.4 million. (That one is 12 years, which can?t be done now. The others are eight, which does fit.) Malkin also did $43.5, then $76 million. Kane and Toews copied each other, from $31.5 million to $84 million. Stamkos went from $37.5 million to $68 million. We?ll see what McDavid wants, but don?t be shocked if this is the template.

 

[Kin]

Elliotte Friedman had some interesting thoughts on the potential McDavid extension, it might be worth keeping in mind regarding our triplets too.

We?ve all assumed the Oilers will give their captain eight years at eleventy-billion dollars if necessary, but allow me to paint an alternate scenario. What if McDavid opts for the Sidney Crosby-Patrick Kane-Evgeni Malkin-Steven Stamkos-Jonathan Toews route? All five of those players took five-year terms on their second contracts, opening the door for another massive deal around age 25-27. Crosby?s second contract totalled $43.5 million, and his third is $104.4 million. (That one is 12 years, which can?t be done now. The others are eight, which does fit.) Malkin also did $43.5, then $76 million. Kane and Toews copied each other, from $31.5 million to $84 million. Stamkos went from $37.5 million to $68 million. We?ll see what McDavid wants, but don?t be shocked if this is the template.

My post on it seems to have been swallowed up but there's also some good stuff in this week's 30 thoughts columns about the potential of the Leafs making a trade with Anaheim for a defenseman. Brown is specifically mentioned as potentially being a piece going the way.

 

[herman]

Both Vatanen and Lindholm are recovering from labrum surgery, which might impact valuation. Lindholm is a non-starter, but Vatanen is probably the loosest Duck if a team were to shake that tree.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

My post on it seems to have been swallowed up but there's also some good stuff in this week's 30 thoughts columns about the potential of the Leafs making a trade with Anaheim for a defenseman. Brown is specifically mentioned as potentially being a piece going the way.

Poile had an interesting quote yesterday or the day before when someone brought up Nashville's past of making pretty big hockey trades:

"Sometimes we fall in love with our players. We probably overrate or overestimate our players. I really try with myself and our staff to be as honest as we can about the value of our players."

I think that this is something that the Leafs management (plus Babcock in particular) is going to have to overcome too.

 

[mr grieves]

My post on it seems to have been swallowed up but there's also some good stuff in this week's 30 thoughts columns about the potential of the Leafs making a trade with Anaheim for a defenseman. Brown is specifically mentioned as potentially being a piece going the way.

Poile had an interesting quote yesterday or the day before when someone brought up Nashville's past of making pretty big hockey trades:

"Sometimes we fall in love with our players. We probably overrate or overestimate our players. I really try with myself and our staff to be as honest as we can about the value of our players."

I think that this is something that the Leafs management (plus Babcock in particular) is going to have to overcome too.

This is my biggest worry about what Mirtle's been reporting re: Dubas and the analytics team being side-lined by Lou, Babcock, and Hunter. Babcock came into Toronto with the reputation for holding onto his favorites, and the last year's shown that's pretty well deserved rep. When Dubas had Shanahan's ear, I had no concerns that the Leafs would be smartly turning over the non-core, but now...

 

[herman]

Mirtle: Should the Maple Leafs give up some of the future to bolster their blueline?
https://theathletic.com/57785/2017/05/03/mirtle-should-the-maple-leafs-give-up-some-of-the-future-to-bolster-their-blueline/

Mirtle's talking obvious things.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I wonder if Tyler Myers might be the best realistic option available to us. 27 years old. Right-handed. 6'8", 229 lbs. He had an injury-riddled season this year appearing in just 11 games. He's also never really been the healthiest of players, missing about 10 games per season the few seasons prior to this one. He's got 2 years left on his contract with a $5.5mil cap hit. The actual salary paid in those 2 years is only $3.5mil and $3mil (you might remember he received an insane $10mil signing bonus in the 1st year of his deal). His advanced stats aren't exactly the greatest but they improved after he left Buffalo and a guy like Gardiner could help his shot suppression numbers.

Winnipeg's in a bit of a bind as they need to protect Buff, Trouba, and Enstrom (NMC). They could go the 8 skaters route but I don't think that's preferred by them. Moving Myers would also probably appease Trouba a bit as that frees up the right side for him and maybe that helps get him to sign a long-term contract extension. I would imagine that with Myers' injury history, cap hit, and the impending expansion draft, his trade value wouldn't exactly be very high right now.

So, all in all, he's definitely not the greatest option. But, if healthy, he could be a good stop-gap measure for a couple of years. The fact that his contract expires at the same time as Mathews and Marner is a pretty big bonus too.

 

[herman]

Yeah, Myers might be a good buy low opportunity. Trouba is a better target if both requires a stupid spend (thanks, Chevy).

I wouldn't be surprised if Arizona makes a pitch for Myers. High cap hit with lower salary is their jam.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Trouba would be my absolute #1 target to fill that void, but I'm really not sure Winnipeg trades him and if they do I don't think we really have the assets they'll be looking to acquire if they do.

Some of the other names on the potential D list like Tanev and Vatanen are good players for sure and they could obviously help our team, but I think that they're closer to being #4 defenceman than they are #2 and I feel like they'll be valued more like #2 defenceman in trade talks. So I'm wary about that.

Myers could probably give us about the same on-ice value as those guys for a couple of years while we still get to keep our bigger trade chips available for a more long-term solution to that hole.

 

[herman]

Trouba would be my absolute #1 target to fill that void, but I'm really not sure Winnipeg trades him and if they do I don't think we really have the assets they'll be looking to acquire if they do.

Some of the other names on the potential D list like Tanev and Vatanen are good players for sure and they could obviously help our team, but I think that they're closer to being #4 defenceman than they are #2 and I feel like they'll be valued more like #2 defenceman in trade talks. So I'm wary about that.

Myers could probably give us about the same on-ice value as those guys for a couple of years while we still get to keep our bigger trade chips available for a more long-term solution to that hole.

How about Justin Faulk, as busta (and Mirtle) mentioned upthread?
I think Carolina is looking for a kingly sum there as well, but we've got more toys in the forward department that they'd be interested in. They're about to turn the corner and they've got their defense pairing of the future right now in Slavin and Pesce. If they keep Faulk, then Hanafin, while not Expansion eligible, is another piece they'd be open to moving for more consistent scoring *cough* JvR *cough*.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Off-topic for a second, I wonder if Arizona goes hard after Hossa, Chicago is in a bit of a bind and Hossa only makes $1 million this year despite a 5.5ish cap hit.

 

[Bullfrog]

Making a move for a young D will be tricky. I know the point of acquiring these young assets is so we can move them for the right pieces, but damn it, I like my new shiny toys and I don't want to share.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

How about Justin Faulk, as busta (and Mirtle) mentioned upthread?

I think Carolina is looking for a kingly sum there as well, but we've got more toys in the forward department that they'd be interested in. They're about to turn the corner and they've got their defense pairing of the future right now in Slavin and Pesce. If they keep Faulk, then Hanafin, while not Expansion eligible, is another piece they'd be open to moving for more consistent scoring *cough* JvR *cough*.

I'd put Faulk right behind Trouba. Those 2, off the top of my head, are probably the only legit top-pairing defenceman "rumoured" to be available. I just didn't include Faulk because despite all the speculation I really can't understand why Carolina would move him.

I could see them moving Hanifin in a 'Jones for Johansen' type of trade. There's actually a lot of similarities between those two situations. Only problem is JVR isn't Johansen.

 

[louisstamos]

I still think Minnesota is going to move one of their D this summer, but would probably want picks or protected assets.  But if either Dumba or Spurgeon are available, I would definitely be up for grabbing one of them.  Dumba more so because of age...

 

[herman]

How about Justin Faulk, as busta (and Mirtle) mentioned upthread?

I think Carolina is looking for a kingly sum there as well, but we've got more toys in the forward department that they'd be interested in. They're about to turn the corner and they've got their defense pairing of the future right now in Slavin and Pesce. If they keep Faulk, then Hanafin, while not Expansion eligible, is another piece they'd be open to moving for more consistent scoring *cough* JvR *cough*.

I'd put Faulk right behind Trouba. Those 2, off the top of my head, are probably the only legit top-pairing defenceman "rumoured" to be available. I just didn't include Faulk because despite all the speculation I really can't understand why Carolina would move him.

I could see them moving Hanifin in a 'Jones for Johansen' type of trade. There's actually a lot of similarities between those two situations. Only problem is JVR isn't Johansen.

And they have a competent analytics person, so we can't reverse Hall-Larsson them either. I also don't think Hanifin is Jones either.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I also don't think Hanifin is Jones either.

Their first 2 seasons were both eerily similar:

Jones, drafted 4th overall. First 2 seasons: 52 points in 159 games. 51.8 CF%, 44.7 GF%
Hanifin, drafted 5th overall. First 2 seasons: 51 points in 160 games. 50.4 CF%, 45.5 GF%

I don't think Jones really broke out until his 4th season (this year). Jones does have the size and handedness advantage though so that would bump his value a little higher. Still think Hanifin could bring someone closer in value to Marner than JVR. And we're obviously not trading them Marner.

 

[AvroArrow]

I'm a little weary of Myers - hasn't he had some injury troubles lately?

Another possibility might be Demers?  Seems Florida will have issues at expansion draft and he might be the odd man out.

 

[herman]

I also don't think Hanifin is Jones either.

Their first 2 seasons were both eerily similar:

Jones, drafted 4th overall. First 2 seasons: 52 points in 159 games. 51.8 CF%, 44.7 GF%
Hanifin, drafted 5th overall. First 2 seasons: 51 points in 160 games. 50.4 CF%, 45.5 GF%

I don't think Jones really broke out until his 4th season (this year). Jones does have the size and handedness advantage though so that would bump his value a little higher. Still think Hanifin could bring someone closer in value to Marner than JVR. And we're obviously not trading them Marner.

I didn't realize their raw numbers were so similar.
The HERO Chart comparison shows Jones is better rounded and a solid play driver that has gone to new heights with Werenski. Hanifin is a strong primary point producer on sheltered minutes, but struggles to drive play. Even if he's available to us, at the going rate, it'd probably be better to get someone in the prime of his curve so we can backfill developing defensemen.

Best bet is probably Shattenkirk from an asset management point of view, even if he's not the perfect option (still drives play).

 

[herman]

Another possibility might be Demers?  Seems Florida will have issues at expansion draft and he might be the odd man out.

Do they have a crunch? Ekblad, Demers, and Yandle (NMC)? Who else do they not want to lose?

 

[princedpw]

Off-topic for a second, I wonder if Arizona goes hard after Hossa, Chicago is in a bit of a bind and Hossa only makes $1 million this year despite a 5.5ish cap hit.

Does Hossa have a no-trade clause?  If he does, not sure why he'd agree to go to Arizona ...