Armchair GM 2018-2019

[Coco-puffs]

Look, I hardly watched the Cup finals, so I really don't know.  I was just going by their statistical data, which I understand doesn't paint the whole picture.

I think my point was that the teams that have won the Presidents Trophy lately have had a stud back there.  The Leafs have a couple of very good defensemen, but they do not have an elite one. 

I don't think Karlsson is in the cards for the Leafs, but trading away somebody like Nylander + for an elite defender makes a fair bit of sense to me.  I, like you, watched a lot of Leaf hockey last season.  Now that they've signed Tavares, I think there's a pretty good argument to be made that their forward group might be the highest octane bunch in the league, at least on paper...I'm still convinced that they would benefit by trading a component out of that bunch, from a position of strength, to benefit from an addition to a current area of relative weakness, the defense group.

Oh, I'm not opposed to trading either of Nylander or Marner for an elite RHD.  I think most people are sick of the trade Nylander thing because often people are just saying for a top 4 D. 

Seriously, this is my list of D-men I'd trade either of those guys for without blinking an eye:

Erik Karlsson (with an extension)
PK Subban
Seth Jones
Charlie McAvoy

Here's the list of guys I'd strongly consider as well, but would hesitate and really have to think about:

Doughty
Klinberg
Parayko
Hamilton
Ellis (he was close to being put in the group above because his next contract is great)

Considering the likelyhood that any of those guys becomes available, I'd expect Nylander and Marner to be Leafs for a long time.

Given St. Louis' defense situation, it's super unlikely, but I'd add Pietrangelo to that list, even though he's only got 2 years left on his deal.

I considered him as well and had him on my list at first but he's also going to be 30 when the deal expires and will probably want a pretty big deal, for too long at that point.  But yeah, he'd be on my radar too but with slightly more reservations than the players on the maybe list.

 

[Kin]

Erik Karlsson (with an extension)
PK Subban
Seth Jones
Charlie McAvoy

Kind of unrelated but Subban is a pretty great example of how in the modern NHL a contract can go from "He got how much?!?!?" to being a pretty undeniable bargain in a very short period of time.

Something to keep in mind when we talk about extending people.

 

[Coco-puffs]

Erik Karlsson (with an extension)
PK Subban
Seth Jones
Charlie McAvoy

Kind of unrelated but Subban is a pretty great example of how in the modern NHL a contract can go from "He got how much?!?!?" to being a pretty undeniable bargain in a very short period of time.

Something to keep in mind when we talk about extending people.

I think calling it a bargain is a little bit overzealous, but yes, the last 4 years of his deal are definitely very good value.  I think only McDavid could pull a 9M AAV and it be called a bargain.

When it was signed, it was 13.04% of the cap, or approximately 10.4M in today's dollars.  So I think anyone saying "he got how much???" was clueless...

1. It was one of the first big contracts under the new CBA where 12-year deals were no longer allowed so it was the new market reality. 
2. A whole bunch of people seem to have issues with PK that don't reflect how good a player he is.

I'd say it was fair market value at the time and usually fair market value in year 1 means it becomes a good deal as long as the player does not decline in the latter half of the contract.

 

[Kin]

I think calling it a bargain is a little bit overzealous, but yes, the last 4 years of his deal are definitely very good value.  I think only McDavid could pull a 9M AAV and it be called a bargain.

There were certainly enough people here calling Tavares at 11 a bargain because, well, it was. On an open market PK is definitely getting more than 9.

 

[Kin]

If the Leafs were to make a trade of Nylander, I'd really think they'd be better off getting prospects and picks back and then having cap space to add a defenseman.

But they shouldn't trade Nylander, especially not notw.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

If the Leafs were to make a trade of Nylander, I'd really think they'd be better off getting prospects and picks back and then having cap space to add a defenseman.

Yeah, that makes the most sense I think. 1) I don't think there is an available defenceman who I would trade for Nylander and 2) it opens up the potential trading partners by a pretty significant margin.

 

[Frank E]

If the Leafs were to make a trade of Nylander, I'd really think they'd be better off getting prospects and picks back and then having cap space to add a defenseman.

But they shouldn't trade Nylander, especially not notw.

We always talk about dealing from a position of strength, so do you not think the Leafs are in a position of strength in the forward positions?

I'm not advocating trading Nylander, I'm a little undecided here in October...but I see the following options here to deal with the apparent defense issue:

1.  They need a good defenseman, so they'll need to trade a good forward to get one.
2.  They need a good defenseman,  but they can trade other assets besides a top forward like Nylander to get one.
3.  They don't need another good defenseman at the current prices and cap space available, and besides that, there are some good options coming up internally.

 

[Kin]

We always talk about dealing from a position of strength, so do you not think the Leafs are in a position of strength in the forward positions?

If you're looking to trade a forward for a defenseman I don't think you're ever really in a position of strength. Especially not mid-season and dealing an unsigned player who wants a deal that might be hard to swallow(or at least one people assume will have to grow into his deal). 

 

[OldTimeHockey]

I really think your forward to trade is Kadri. I get that he's on a fantastic deal but that fantastic deal, paired with back 2 back 32 goal seasons makes him a pretty good asset.

Slot Nylander in at the Center position and you now have 3 lines with pretty fantastic hockey players down the middle(not that Kadri isn't a fantastic player).

 

[Frank E]

We always talk about dealing from a position of strength, so do you not think the Leafs are in a position of strength in the forward positions?

If you're looking to trade a forward for a defenseman I don't think you're ever really in a position of strength. Especially not mid-season and dealing an unsigned player who wants a deal that might be hard to swallow(or at least one people assume will have to grow into his deal).

I don't really understand this statement.  Are $8m forwards worth less than $8m defenseman?  I get the unsigned part, but I'm assuming any deal includes the team agreeing to terms with Nylander.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

We always talk about dealing from a position of strength, so do you not think the Leafs are in a position of strength in the forward positions?

If you're looking to trade a forward for a defenseman I don't think you're ever really in a position of strength. Especially not mid-season and dealing an unsigned player who wants a deal that might be hard to swallow(or at least one people assume will have to grow into his deal).

I don't really understand this statement.  Are $8m forwards worth less than $8m defenseman?  I get the unsigned part, but I'm assuming any deal includes the team agreeing to terms with Nylander.

Maybe he's saying the $8m dman is harder to come by than the $8m forward?

 

[mr grieves]

If the Leafs were to make a trade of Nylander, I'd really think they'd be better off getting prospects and picks back and then having cap space to add a defenseman.

But they shouldn't trade Nylander, especially not notw.

In principle, sure... but the only trades with talents like Nylander (talent, age) that I can think of working out have been one-for-one forward/defenseman swaps. What sort of prospect/pick package could the Leafs get for Nylander that'd be in any way worthwhile?

 

[Kin]

I don't really understand this statement.  Are $8m forwards worth less than $8m defenseman?  I get the unsigned part, but I'm assuming any deal includes the team agreeing to terms with Nylander.

No, I think in general good defensemen are prized highly enough that, assuming salary accurately reflects value, you couldn't get a 8m dollar defenseman for a 8 million dollar forward. We can go back to the Oilers, in a similar position of "strength" in terms of having a lot of talented forwards and what they were able to do with Hall, under a reasonable contract and topping out at a decent second pairing guy like Larsson.

Re: his being unsigned, let's keep in mind that the only reason we're really talking about Nylander as someone to trade is that he's supposedly asking for more than he's worth. So either a team trading for Nylander would just be absorbing the same contract problem the Leafs have or they'd have to think Nylander is worth what he's asking for which, at the very least, you'd have to think would narrow the teams who are interested.

 

[Kin]

In principle, sure... but the only trades with talents like Nylander (talent, age) that I can think of working out have been one-for-one forward/defenseman swaps. What sort of prospect/pick package could the Leafs get for Nylander that'd be in any way worthwhile?

I'm not sure but if the idea would be to then look to package some of those picks and prospects for a defenseman elsewhere it would effectively still be a one for one swap, you just wouldn't be limited to defensemen who happen to be on teams that also want Nylander.

 

[Bill_Berg]

If the Leafs were to make a trade of Nylander, I'd really think they'd be better off getting prospects and picks back and then having cap space to add a defenseman.

Yeah, that makes the most sense I think. 1) I don't think there is an available defenceman who I would trade for Nylander and 2) it opens up the potential trading partners by a pretty significant margin.

Where do they get this other defenseman from?Trading other assets? Or a ufa next season? There just don't see to be any available for a reasonable price any way you slice it.

 

[mr grieves]

In principle, sure... but the only trades with talents like Nylander (talent, age) that I can think of working out have been one-for-one forward/defenseman swaps. What sort of prospect/pick package could the Leafs get for Nylander that'd be in any way worthwhile?

I'm not sure but if the idea would be to then look to package some of those picks and prospects for a defenseman elsewhere it would effectively still be a one for one swap, you just wouldn't be limited to defensemen who happen to be on teams that also want Nylander.

I'd think they could get Faulk for Nylander yesterday. Maybe a pick, a good prospect, and depth piece -- roughly what a 'for futures' trade gets you -- could also get Faulk, or something similar (good top-4 guy, ceiling known, a couple/few years left on the contract)... Maybe you net a few extra assets this way and, for whatever reason, the roundabout way is how the upgrade at defense gets done.

I sort of like the idea -- if they must trade Nylander -- of stocking up on stuff that'll keep the team's window open for a good while. Picks, sure. But high-quality prospects -- or just one -- definitely. I'd think that, if Dubas is considering a trade and looking toward the future, Drouin-Sergachev would be the model he'd be looking toward.

Noah Dobson or Ryan Pulock from the Islanders, VAN's Quinn Hughes or Olli Juolevi, VGK's Erik Brannstrom, or COL's Cale Maker would all be the sorts of players I'd put at the center of any deal... Except for maybe Hughes, they'd all need picks and/or other prospects to come with. Dermott replaces Gardiner, Liljegren eventually helps make the right side respectable, and one of these might be able to replace Rielly -- whose contract will be up before the forward core's peak has passed.

 

[dappleganger]

Hopefully there?s a GM out there that overrates Nylander like some Leaf fans.

 

[Bullfrog]

Nylander: not over-rated.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dcsuiN7pIxI

 

[leafsjunkie]

Nylander: not over-rated.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dcsuiN7pIxI

*Drools*

C'mon Dubas.

 

[herman]

I really think your forward to trade is Kadri. I get that he's on a fantastic deal but that fantastic deal, paired with back 2 back 32 goal seasons makes him a pretty good asset.

Slot Nylander in at the Center position and you now have 3 lines with pretty fantastic hockey players down the middle(not that Kadri isn't a fantastic player).

Other than the Leafs centre depth being not great outside of the top 9, I agree the route to solving the cap crunch lies south of the top 4 forwards. It?s a position of strength because of Nylander. Like trading Zaitsev should probably be the new priority once Liljegren/Sandin look likely to make the jump.