Contract: Skittles Edition

[CarltonTheBear]

Gaudreau is also older. Was Gaudreau this good this young?

In Gaudreau's contract year he scored 78 points in 79 games. That was good for T-6th in scoring that season.

Marner's numbers, 61 points in 48 games, certainly seem to be a crap-ton better, but he's T-8th in scoring right now.

Trying to negotiate around the fact that scoring is kinda banana's right now is going to be a challenge, but it's something that needs to be accounted for.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

The more I think about it, the more I believe that Marner waiting is actually a bad idea on his part/could be beneficial to us. There are 4 big RFA/post-ELC contracts that need to be decided this year: Matthews, Rantanen, Point, and Marner. And I think you can make a solid argument that Marner deserves to be paid the 4th highest amount on that list.

Rantanen's out-scoring him by a pretty wide margin, and did so last season as well. Matthews and Point are in his ballpark scoring wise this season but they also play the more important position so that gives them a little more value. Whether this is fair to Marner or not, Rantanen and Point will probably get less than what they actually deserve because of comparables/standards being set on their teams. So if Marner waits until after those guys sign then Dubas can use those contracts to keep his cap hit down as well.

Anyway, my prediction for Marner is still about $8.5-9mil. I'd be stunned if he got into the 10's.

 

[Bates]

The Nylander deal will surely be used by Marner Camp.

 

[Kin]

The more I think about it, the more I believe that Marner waiting is actually a bad idea on his part/could be beneficial to us. There are 4 big RFA/post-ELC contracts that need to be decided this year: Matthews, Rantanen, Point, and Marner. And I think you can make a solid argument that Marner deserves to be paid the 4th highest amount on that list.

Laine too, although that deal is probably going to be weird.

 

[bustaheims]

The Nylander deal will surely be used by Marner Camp.

Sort of, but not really. At this point, everyone in the hockey world knows Marner is getting more than Nylander. The only question is how much, and using Nylander's contract doesn't really help provide any real clarity there. He's no longer a good comparable for Marner.

 

[Kin]

I think it's really unlikely that any deal gets "used" in isolation to make a direct comparison because you can waste tons of time that way with various examples supporting one thing and others supporting another. For all the "He should be worth __% of what Nylander got" the team can come back with "But he shouldn't get __% of what McDavid got" or whatever.

 

[Bates]

The Nylander deal will surely be used by Marner Camp.

Sort of, but not really. At this point, everyone in the hockey world knows Marner is getting more than Nylander. The only question is how much, and using Nylander's contract doesn't really help provide any real clarity there. He's no longer a good comparable for Marner.

Marner is much closer to Matthews than he is to Nylander,  I suspect he will be asking for his contract to reflect that.

 

[bustaheims]

Marner is much closer to Matthews than he is to Nylander,  I suspect he will be asking for his contract to reflect that.

Yes, and that it why his camp won't really use Nylander's contract. It does nothing for them. They'll only really be using contracts are closer to what he's looking for.

 

[Bates]

Marner is much closer to Matthews than he is to Nylander,  I suspect he will be asking for his contract to reflect that.

Yes, and that it why his camp won't really use Nylander's contract. It does nothing for them. They'll only really be using contracts are closer to what he's looking for.

How do you figure?? Guestimating Matthews at $12, make the case for Marner getting anything less than halfway between the two?  Using same contracts his Agent certainly has a case for being closer to Matthews which is double the digits.

 

[bustaheims]

How do you figure?? Guestimating Matthews at $12, make the case for Marner getting anything less than halfway between the two?  Using same contracts his Agent certainly has a case for being closer to Matthews which is double the digits.

I honestly don't understand how you think Nylander's contract is relevant when Marner will likely get $2M more per season in AAV than Nylander. Marner's agents will use contracts that represent where he thinks Marner should be, not contracts that represent such a significant range. His agent isn't going to make a case about him being "halfway between" such extremes in value. He'll point to a handful of contracts in the range Marner is looking at, and make a case to how Marner is of similar values to those players.

 

[Bates]

How do you figure?? Guestimating Matthews at $12, make the case for Marner getting anything less than halfway between the two?  Using same contracts his Agent certainly has a case for being closer to Matthews which is double the digits.

I honestly don't understand how you think Nylander's contract is relevant when Marner will likely get $2M more per season in AAV than Nylander. Marner's agents will use contracts that represent where he thinks Marner should be, not contracts that represent such a significant range. His agent isn't going to make a case about him being "halfway between" such extremes in value. He'll point to a handful of contracts in the range Marner is looking at, and make a case to how Marner is of similar values to those players.

Because the discussion was started by an assertion that Marner will get between 8.5 and 9 based on comparables outside the organization. I'm suggesting he will use in house examples to ask for much more than Nylander just received and closer to Matthews making $9 million average a hometown discount. Using tax friendly teams aren't as fair as the guy sharing the room IMO.

 

[Guilt Trip]

The more I think about it, the more I believe that Marner waiting is actually a bad idea on his part/could be beneficial to us. There are 4 big RFA/post-ELC contracts that need to be decided this year: Matthews, Rantanen, Point, and Marner. And I think you can make a solid argument that Marner deserves to be paid the 4th highest amount on that list.

Rantanen's out-scoring him by a pretty wide margin, and did so last season as well. Matthews and Point are in his ballpark scoring wise this season but they also play the more important position so that gives them a little more value. Whether this is fair to Marner or not, Rantanen and Point will probably get less than what they actually deserve because of comparables/standards being set on their teams. So if Marner waits until after those guys sign then Dubas can use those contracts to keep his cap hit down as well.

Anyway, my prediction for Marner is still about $8.5-9mil. I'd be stunned if he got into the 10's.

You may be right on the waiting part. It could backfire. My hope is Matthews comes in a JT money max and Marner 9 max for a 20 mill hit between the 2. I guess we'll see what Matthews signs for first.

 

[bustaheims]

Because the discussion was started by an assertion that Marner will get between 8.5 and 9 based on comparables outside the organization. I'm suggesting he will use in house examples to ask for much more than Nylander just received and closer to Matthews making $9 million average a hometown discount. Using tax friendly teams aren't as fair as the guy sharing the room IMO.

That's still not really how things typically work. At most, they'll point to Nylander's contract and say Marner deserves more - to which, there won't be much argument. And, unless there's disagreement about the length of the deal, that'll be the end of Nylander's contract being brought up.

 

[Bates]

Because the discussion was started by an assertion that Marner will get between 8.5 and 9 based on comparables outside the organization. I'm suggesting he will use in house examples to ask for much more than Nylander just received and closer to Matthews making $9 million average a hometown discount. Using tax friendly teams aren't as fair as the guy sharing the room IMO.

That's still not really how things typically work. At most, they'll point to Nylander's contract and say Marner deserves more - to which, there won't be much argument. And, unless there's disagreement about the length of the deal, that'll be the end of Nylander's contract being brought up.

I don't think there is a defined way contracts are negotiated? I'm still fairly confident Marner's Agent will be using team's own contracts to negotiate for his client. And if it was me and I wanted full value $2 million above Nylander would easily be my bottom base with Matthew's new deal being my upper range. Or above the post I was commenting on

 

[Kin]

And if it was me and I wanted full value $2 million above Nylander would easily be my bottom base with Matthew's new deal being my upper range.

I think this is why the idea of any one contract being a particularly relevant negotiating point is such a facile concept. So let's say Marner's agent decides that 9 million or so is his "Bottom Base" or whatever that is supposed to mean...then what? Is that the point where Marner is prepared to simply not sign a contract beyond? Given that we know Dubas is willing to let things go deep into the season, is Marner prepared to as well? If that's the case, why 9 million and not 9.5 or 10 million? Is Marner really prepared for that to be the reason he isn't a Maple Leaf? Or potentially misses out on a year of hockey?

All of those questions are far more important to the negotiating process than just whether or not he stacks up to one particular other player.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Given that we know Dubas is willing to let things go deep into the season, is Marner prepared to as well?

One thing to keep in mind here is that Dubas was partially able to wait with Nylander because he had plenty of cap space this season to afford the bump in his Year 1 AAV that came along with him signing late. Next season the Leafs will almost certainly not have that cap space, so there will be more of an urgency to get these contracts done than there was with Nylander.

 

[Kin]

One thing to keep in mind here is that Dubas was partially able to wait with Nylander because he had plenty of cap space this season to afford the bump in his Year 1 AAV that came along with him signing late. Next season the Leafs will almost certainly not have that cap space, so there will be more of an urgency to get these contracts done than there was with Nylander.

Maybe, but I'm not sure who that actually puts more pressure on to come to the table. Nylander and his agent would have known that option was out there and Marner's will know it's not.

Although I assume that you could still achieve fundamentally the same thing via signing bonuses as opposed to an artificially high AAV in the first year.

 

[azzurri63]

The more I think about it, the more I believe that Marner waiting is actually a bad idea on his part/could be beneficial to us. There are 4 big RFA/post-ELC contracts that need to be decided this year: Matthews, Rantanen, Point, and Marner. And I think you can make a solid argument that Marner deserves to be paid the 4th highest amount on that list.

Rantanen's out-scoring him by a pretty wide margin, and did so last season as well. Matthews and Point are in his ballpark scoring wise this season but they also play the more important position so that gives them a little more value. Whether this is fair to Marner or not, Rantanen and Point will probably get less than what they actually deserve because of comparables/standards being set on their teams. So if Marner waits until after those guys sign then Dubas can use those contracts to keep his cap hit down as well.

Anyway, my prediction for Marner is still about $8.5-9mil. I'd be stunned if he got into the 10's.

You may be right on the waiting part. It could backfire. My hope is Matthews comes in a JT money max and Marner 9 max for a 20 mill hit between the 2. I guess we'll see what Matthews signs for first.

I'm sorry but I hope he doesn't come in at JT money. Crazy these guys coming off their ELC's are making this much money. Thank Chiarelli for that.
With Auston I just have this bad feeling about the kid.
Injuries, grit, compete level all concerns to me.
World talent. Has chance to be 2nd best player in the league but too many nights off and biggest thing for me is the compete level.
Overdrive Hayes hit it on the head. Matthews if he wants to take that next step, level etc he has to be the guy to turn this around. He should be leading this team on most nights.
McDavid has some off nights but very rarely.
Marner although not in the same level is the same. He most nights shows up.
With Matthews that's not happening. If it's an injury that's another concern.
You wanna fork out 11-12 million a year for a guy who's fragile or altering his game to stay healthy?
I wouldn't.

Dubas as I stated before crumbled to Nylander demands. I would have traded him or let him sit. Didn't help in future negotiations.
Marner is going to ask for a lot more and unfortunately because of Matthews reputation, draft position, supposedly close to a generational player is going to get more when debate is there taking all things into consideration is he really worth it?

 

[Kin]

Crazy these guys coming off their ELC's are making this much money.

Players making a lot of money in the years where they figure to be the most valuable is actually the opposite of crazy. It's diverting money from the Matt Bieleskys and David Clarksons into the pockets of the guys actually driving revenues for the league.

And Chiarelli by no means started the paying of exceptional players a ton of money in their 2nd deals.

 

[Kin]

In terms of Cap %, for instance, the McDavid deal is basically the same as the Ovechkin/Crosby 2nd deals(it's actually a bit lower) and the Draisaitl deal compares very closely to the 2nd deals given to guys like Nick Backstrom, Bergeron and so on.