Contracts for the Big-3

[Zee]

a deal similar to the one that Kadri has signed could be a nice Bridge deal with less term, say 4 years at 4.5Mi hit.

You can take it to the bank that they won't be giving out a 4 yr contract.  That takes him right to his first UFA year.  A 3 yr bridge will be more than 5M IMO.  The only way we get a 4.5M cap hit with Nylander is if he's signing just a 1 yr deal

Whatever the number is on a bridge, it'll be low enough that there's no cap issues for next year with Matthews and Marner even if Marner goes on a tear this season and signs for more than we expect right now.  But you're right on the term, it's either 3 or less, or 6 or more.  They'll be no 4 or 5 year deals that make him a UFA.

 

[Kaberle15]

Totally forgot to check when would he be an UFA... maybe a 3 year deal could work

 

[herman]

It's funny, because RFA holdouts won't come to camp because they fear injury, yet, like you guys point out, what are they doing in the meantime? Probably skating and working out.

Getting hurt while working out or skating on your own is largely under your control.

Preseason games against AHLers vying for the NHL coach's favour is a huge risk for someone without contract certainty.

 

[hockeyfan1]

Just heard on Tim and Sid that Nylander's agent also reps Johnny Gaudreau, who in 2016 went all the way to October 10th, the day before the season started, to sign his RFA contract. He went on to have the worst statistical season of his career.

Kucherov signed his bridge deal in 2016 just two days before Tampa opened their regular season, and he went on to have his best statistical season to date by adding 19 points to his previous career high.

Hmmm I sense we are debating notions of causality here.  The connection between performance and when someone signs a contract is ... not obvious to me.

Well I think the point Sid and Tim were making (and others have made it here as well) is that missing training camp could seriously hurt Nylander's performance during the season... like it did with Gaudreau. I just wanted to point out that other players have missed training camp in the past too and it didn't effect them. So there is no connection there.

It's not like Nylander isn't out there somewhere skating everyday right now too just like the guys in camp are.

We don't know that for sure.  He could be hanging in Sweden on a couch eating Gubbr?ra and nachos all day.

Some nice pasta with Swedish meatballs. 

 

[Frank E]

Well I think the point Sid and Tim were making (and others have made it here as well) is that missing training camp could seriously hurt Nylander's performance during the season... like it did with Gaudreau. I just wanted to point out that other players have missed training camp in the past too and it didn't effect them. So there is no connection there.

It's not like Nylander isn't out there somewhere skating everyday right now too just like the guys in camp are.

I feel like I might be a target of this statement, but I'd like to point out that I was suggesting that this is not what would have been seen as an ideal scenario when negotiations began.  The team is dealing now with a less than ideal scenario, assuming of course that Dubas' offer isn't decreasing in $ commitment as every day of training camp goes by.  We can't legitimately quantify what training camp means to Nylander's performance this season, but at worst I can only assume that attending training camp wouldn't adversely affect Nylander's performance. 

I think what might be interesting to discuss is if the season starts without Nylander, how does the win/loss result affect the negotiation?

 

[Kin]

I think it's clear to say that there's nowhere near enough evidence to prove the sort of direct causation that Tim and Sid, who shouldn't be confused with really deep thinkers, want to establish there.

But even then I think we can work some things out logically that answer some of the questions raised about the importance of a training camp. Here are a few:

Training Camps began with a very real and important purpose that doesn't really exist any more: Back in the days when players worked off season jobs, they'd often arrive at the start of season looking more like the salesmen or construction workers they were in the summer than finely tuned professional athletes. So camp was, quite literally, for physical training. Nowadays, these hard workin' millionaires are expected to keep themselves in fine physical condition year-round.

So why have camp? Training camp still has a lot of purpose for the team: Coaches, scouts and GMs use it as an evaluation process. They get some good looks at recently drafted rookies, make end of roster decisions, get to experiment with strategies...all of things that are theoretically useful but don't really relate to player development.

So does training camp have value for players? Probably, but it varies wildly from player to player: We all know not to take camp results too seriously. Why? Because we know that camp performances really only impact things in a minimal sense. Gauthier could score 100 points in camp and he's not bumping Tavares and Matthews. However Gauthier, as a fringe NHL-type, could definitely win a job as the 4th line C or a pressbox inhabitant. So it matters to him a great deal. The same could be said of older players who might need to get up to game speed if they're recovering from an injury or players on a new team fitting into a system or getting used to new linemates. Camp can definitely have an impact there.

Thing is, none of that really applies to Nylander. He's fairly well established, he knows his coaches(Gaudreau, for instance, had a new coach that year) and we're all expecting him to play with Matthews and Hyman again. At least to start the year. So I think we can somewhat fairly say that camp will probably matter less to him than it would to others.

I'm sure there's something to be said for the sort of camaraderie for all these guys getting together and working on stuff together but I really don't think that's negatively affected here. I think most players understand the business side of things and know the reason Nylander isn't in camp is because he's not currently a member of the Toronto Maple Leafs organization. He's not there for the same reason people don't show up to work shifts at jobs they don't have. Players get that and I'm pretty confident that none of Nylander's teammates will hold his absence against him.

 

[Zee]

I'd love to be privy to these conversations between team and agent.  When it gets down to it how difficult is it to hammer out a deal?  I mean you see UFA's sign on July 1 very quickly, why does it take so long in some cases for RFAs to work out a deal?

Do they talk every day?  Do they sit and stew if one side says "we're not moving off this number and term"? 

At the end of the day I'm sure Dubas and company have a range they're comfortable with so why is it so difficult to get to that point?  As it's been mentioned, Nylander or any RFA has very little leverage, is he going to go play in the KHL -- highly doubtful and even then he doesn't come back with anymore leverage than he currently has.  I'm just wondering how this can drag on for weeks and weeks instead of just getting hammered out in days.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/TSNBobMcKenzie/status/1042431473716850688

Reinhart and the Sabres appear to be ending their stalemate by going the bridge route. Reinhart was drafted 2nd overall in 2014, Nylander 8th overall. Reinhart scored 50 points last season, and 47 points the season before that. Nylander has back-to-back years of 61 points.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I'd love to be privy to these conversations between team and agent.  When it gets down to it how difficult is it to hammer out a deal?  I mean you see UFA's sign on July 1 very quickly, why does it take so long in some cases for RFAs to work out a deal?

Do they talk every day?  Do they sit and stew if one side says "we're not moving off this number and term"? 

At the end of the day I'm sure Dubas and company have a range they're comfortable with so why is it so difficult to get to that point?  As it's been mentioned, Nylander or any RFA has very little leverage, is he going to go play in the KHL -- highly doubtful and even then he doesn't come back with anymore leverage than he currently has.  I'm just wondering how this can drag on for weeks and weeks instead of just getting hammered out in days.

At least with a guy like Nylander (or in the past Kucherov or Gaudreau) you can understand why the negotiations might be difficult. What the heck are guys like Nick Ritchie or Miles "who?" Wood still doing unsigned at this point?

 

[Zee]

https://twitter.com/TSNBobMcKenzie/status/1042431473716850688

Reinhart and the Sabres appear to be ending their stalemate by going the bridge route. Reinhart was drafted 2nd overall in 2014, Nylander 8th overall. Reinhart scored 50 points last season, and 47 points the season before that. Nylander has back-to-back years of 61 points.

A 2 year bridge for Nylander would most likely be $4.5 using this as an example

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

https://twitter.com/TSNBobMcKenzie/status/1042431473716850688

Reinhart and the Sabres appear to be ending their stalemate by going the bridge route. Reinhart was drafted 2nd overall in 2014, Nylander 8th overall. Reinhart scored 50 points last season, and 47 points the season before that. Nylander has back-to-back years of 61 points.

A 2 year bridge for Nylander would most likely be $4.5 using this as an example

Which would be more than ok.  Heck I'd give him $5. 

 

[Zee]

With the slow trickle of RFAs getting signed you have to hope the Nylander situation is cleared up by this weekend.  That gives him the week of training camp and he could get into a couple of exhibition games before the season starts.

 

[disco]

Another point others have made I'm sure is that with Matthews/Tavares/Kadri down the middle, Willy is slotted in at RW moving forward. Ditto Marner, Brown and Kapanen. In a cap world and with the idea of strength down the middle, it's difficult to spend superstar money repeatedly on the wings and have anything left for defense and goaltending.

 

[Kin]

Another point others have made I'm sure is that with Matthews/Tavares/Kadri down the middle, Willy is slotted in at RW moving forward. Ditto Marner, Brown and Kapanen. In a cap world and with the idea of strength down the middle, it's difficult to spend superstar money repeatedly on the wings and have anything left for defense and goaltending.

Which is why if you're Nylander and you think you'd be a successful NHL centre absent the team's decision to play you on the wing then you're probably going to be reluctant to sign a long term deal paying you like a winger.

 

[Kin]

At least with a guy like Nylander (or in the past Kucherov or Gaudreau) you can understand why the negotiations might be difficult. What the heck are guys like Nick Ritchie or Miles "who?" Wood still doing unsigned at this point?

I actually sort of understand it in Ritchie's case. Because he's a former high draft pick and he's been somewhat productive in a very limited role he probably thinks that Anaheim is sort of trying a version of what I'm talking about with the Leafs and Nylander re: the difference in position wage scales. Anaheim probably wants to pay him like he's a 3rd/4th liner putting up less than 30 points, Ritchie probably sees that as a product of how they're using him instead of his inherent quality.

 

[Frank E]

At least with a guy like Nylander (or in the past Kucherov or Gaudreau) you can understand why the negotiations might be difficult. What the heck are guys like Nick Ritchie or Miles "who?" Wood still doing unsigned at this point?

I actually sort of understand it in Ritchie's case. Because he's a former high draft pick and he's been somewhat productive in a very limited role he probably thinks that Anaheim is sort of trying a version of what I'm talking about with the Leafs and Nylander re: the difference in position wage scales. Anaheim probably wants to pay him like he's a 3rd/4th liner putting up less than 30 points, Ritchie probably sees that as a product of how they're using him instead of his inherent quality.

I would think that many bottom-6 players could make that argument...with added ice-time, maybe some PP-time, maybe even the C position, they'd be able to produce more, and therefore get paid more.

And defensemen, if they got the opportunity to play top-pairing minutes, they'd get more points, and therefore a better contract.

 

[Kin]

I would think that many bottom-6 players could make that argument...with added ice-time, maybe some PP-time, maybe even the C position, they'd be able to produce more, and therefore get paid more.

As we've gone back and forth on though the issue isn't the extent to which an argument is verifiable fact, just how much it's believed by the person making it.

I think Ritchie is in a particular position, as a young player with good draft pedigree who scored well in junior and the AHL, to think he's a better scorer than his time in the NHL has shown. A lot of 3rd/4th liners, older ones, are probably more settled into their roles and just happy to be making NHL money.

I think that's why someone like Ritchie might take a while to negotiate. If the Ducks expect bigger things out of Ritchie than he's given them, they might be inclined to try and lock Ritchie in for as long as they can at 3rd/4th line money. Ritchie, if he expects big things from himself, probably wouldn't want that. Hence...no contract.

 

[Kin]

On a side note, does it seem to anyone else like there are a lot of people who think that when RFA's are negotiating long term deals that the sole determining factor in what they get is their past production but when UFA's are negotiating their long term deals the sole determining factor in what they get should be the kind of player they're likely to be in the latter years of the contract?

 

[Frank E]

I would think that many bottom-6 players could make that argument...with added ice-time, maybe some PP-time, maybe even the C position, they'd be able to produce more, and therefore get paid more.

As we've gone back and forth on though the issue isn't the extent to which an argument is verifiable fact, just how much it's believed by the person making it.

I think Ritchie is in a particular position, as a young player with good draft pedigree who scored well in junior and the AHL, to think he's a better scorer than his time in the NHL has shown. A lot of 3rd/4th liners, older ones, are probably more settled into their roles and just happy to be making NHL money.

I think that's why someone like Ritchie might take a while to negotiate. If the Ducks expect bigger things out of Ritchie than he's given them, they might be inclined to try and lock Ritchie in for as long as they can at 3rd/4th line money. Ritchie, if he expects big things from himself, probably wouldn't want that. Hence...no contract.

Maybe he can try to make that argument, but there are guys drafted before he was that can hardly crack a roster yet, like Dal Colle and Fleury, so I'm not sure draft position at his age has much negotiation value.

I don't doubt that the Ducks are trying to squeeze out as much dollars here, just like I don't doubt the Ritchie is trying to squeeze out as much as he can, but I've yet to be convinced by you here that he's being held back...just like I'm not convinced about Nylander not having an opportunity to prove his value, as he has had the opportunity to play with one of the best players in the whole world the past 2 years. 

 

[Kin]

Maybe he can try to make that argument, but there are guys drafted before he was that can hardly crack a roster yet, like Dal Colle and Fleury, so I'm not sure draft position at his age has much negotiation value.

I didn't say Ritchie's draft position has negotiation value. I said his draft position might contribute to Ritchie thinking he's better than he's shown so far. Which, again, is one of the reasons negotiations might have taken this long.

I appreciate that you've taken it upon yourself to constantly defend any and every position NHL management might take but "Yeah, I can see why negotiations have dragged out on this one" is not a pro-player position.