Contracts for the Big-3

[Bates]

I won't get excited but boy is this fan base about to explode at 5 year deal!!!

I don't know why but I've never thought Matthews would stay in Toronto his whole career. He just doesn't look comfortable to me but then again it could just be the way he is??  This year's Matthews might be a little too much for sleepy AZ hockey though?? 

I wouldn't jump to the conclusion that this has anything to do with him wanting to play elsewhere, he may just want to be able to maximize his earnings.

 

[Zee]

I don't know why but I've never thought Matthews would stay in Toronto his whole career. He just doesn't look comfortable to me but then again it could just be the way he is??  This year's Matthews might be a little too much for sleepy AZ hockey though?? 

I wouldn't jump to the conclusion that this has anything to do with him wanting to play elsewhere, he may just want to be able to maximize his earnings.

I guess it all depends on what happened in those 5 years.  A lot can change for anyone in a situation and if he suddenly sours to the Toronto market for whatever reason, he'll have an earlier opportunity at exiting.  Sure it'll be smart for him to sign a 5 year deal followed by an 8 year extension with the Leafs, but that first 5 year deal would make me sweat.

 

[TML fan]

The Leafs don't need Nylander as much as his agent thinks they do. Sure, they're a better team with him in the lineup but they're still competitive without him. The longer he sits out and the more games the Leafs win, the worse his situation gets.

Nylander is going to have to come down. He doesn't have enough leverage.

 

[Zee]

The Leafs don't need Nylander as much as his agent thinks they do. Sure, they're a better team with him in the lineup but they're still competitive without him. The longer he sits out and the more games the Leafs win, the worse his situation gets.

Nylander is going to have to come down. He doesn't have enough leverage.

At this point I'd be happy with a bridge deal.  Leafs push off the Nylander question for 2 or 3 years, and by that time they'll have more certainty on the future cap with other contracts signed, or gone (like Marleau/Gardiner).  Also with the cap increasing, Nylander can sign at a higher number in 2 or 3 years and the Leafs can make it work.

 

[Kin]

I guess it all depends on what happened in those 5 years.  A lot can change for anyone in a situation and if he suddenly sours to the Toronto market for whatever reason, he'll have an earlier opportunity at exiting.  Sure it'll be smart for him to sign a 5 year deal followed by an 8 year extension with the Leafs, but that first 5 year deal would make me sweat.

Man, some of you guys need to forget about the tigers and just eat the strawberry.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I really wouldn't blame Matthews for taking 5 years. Toews, Kane, Malkin, Benn, Crosby, and Stamkos all took 5-year contracts after their ELC and all of them re-signed with their original clubs after that. As long as the Leafs are still good it shouldn't be an issue.

edit: You can add Perry and Getzlaf to that list too, although they're a step below in terms of talent. Still, it really isn't that unusual or a cause for alarm.

 

[Kin]

I really wouldn't blame Matthews for taking 5 years. Toews, Kane, Malkin, Benn, Crosby, and Stamkos all took 5-year contracts after their ELC and all of them re-signed with their original clubs after that. As long as the Leafs are still good it shouldn't be an issue.

edit: You can add Perry and Getzlaf to that list too, although they're a step below in terms of talent. Still, it really isn't that unusual or a cause for alarm.

Plus, you have to imagine seeing a NHL salary landscape where Ovechkin and Crosby are making less than Jack Eichel will convince some young guys that long, long term deals aren't the way to go.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Elsewhere on the Nylander front, there have been rumblings out of Europe in the last 48 hours that Willy is thinking about Ufa ? not his UFA status, not yet, but the city located some 1,200 kilometres east of Moscow ? because KHL club Salavat Yulaev has expressed strong interest.

(Good luck unearthing a firm "yay" or "nay" on that potentially interesting tidbit from official sources.)

The only trouble is that Nylander can?t play a game in the KHL or anywhere else on the continent if he intends to return to the NHL this season, since that would require him to clear waivers immediately upon signing back in North America.

How the hell does this work?  I thought the Leafs would retain his rights as an RFA, but it seems there's a loophole here if he indeed signs in the KHL??  If he signs with the KHL he'd have to clear waivers to get back to the NHL this year?  Does that mean the Leafs would lose his rights? I'm confused what this is saying.

I think CJ has this wrong. If Nylander went to play in Europe and then came back after he signed with the Leafs, he wouldn't need to clear waivers to come back. But if Nylander went to play in Europe and signed an offer sheet that the Leafs didn't match, then he would need to clear waivers before officially joining the team he signed an offer sheet with. Basically summed up: "According to the new collective bargaining agreement, free agents who join the NHL midseason must first pass through waivers unless the player is already on that club?s restricted list.". That's from this article that described how it almost happened when the Flames signed Ryan O'Reilly to an offer sheet:

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/ryan-oreilly-agent-pat-morris-colorado-avalanche-calgary-flames/

Funny thing, neither O'Reilly's agent or the Flames GM knew about this rule. Luckily they were sparred from embarrassment when Colorado matched (would have been absolutely hilarious if they didn't).

 

[disco]

Burkie made some good points on PTS. It used to be ELC, bridge deal, and then you get your money. Now we're seeing guys wanted/getting their money immediately after their ELC. Also it used to be playoff/Cup success and then guys cashing in on the club. The Leafs haven't even won a round yet and already they're having to manage it. Just the reality.

Question, how long is the club's control of Nylander?

 

[Zee]

Elsewhere on the Nylander front, there have been rumblings out of Europe in the last 48 hours that Willy is thinking about Ufa ? not his UFA status, not yet, but the city located some 1,200 kilometres east of Moscow ? because KHL club Salavat Yulaev has expressed strong interest.

(Good luck unearthing a firm "yay" or "nay" on that potentially interesting tidbit from official sources.)

The only trouble is that Nylander can?t play a game in the KHL or anywhere else on the continent if he intends to return to the NHL this season, since that would require him to clear waivers immediately upon signing back in North America.

How the hell does this work?  I thought the Leafs would retain his rights as an RFA, but it seems there's a loophole here if he indeed signs in the KHL??  If he signs with the KHL he'd have to clear waivers to get back to the NHL this year?  Does that mean the Leafs would lose his rights? I'm confused what this is saying.

I think CJ has this wrong. If Nylander went to play in Europe and then came back after he signed with the Leafs, he wouldn't need to clear waivers to come back. But if Nylander went to play in Europe and signed an offer sheet that the Leafs didn't match, then he would need to clear waivers before officially joining the team he signed an offer sheet with. Basically summed up: "According to the new collective bargaining agreement, free agents who join the NHL midseason must first pass through waivers unless the player is already on that club?s restricted list.". That's from this article that described how it almost happened when the Flames signed Ryan O'Reilly to an offer sheet:

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/ryan-oreilly-agent-pat-morris-colorado-avalanche-calgary-flames/

Funny thing, neither O'Reilly's agent or the Flames GM knew about this rule. Luckily they were sparred from embarrassment when Colorado matched (would have been absolutely hilarious if they didn't).

Well that's good, I mean I've heard hot takes on the Nylander situation all summer and this KHL/clearing waivers thing has never come up before so I was confused as to how he could just say that.  It would seem like a huge leverage point for Nylander if he were able to do that.

 

[Kin]

Burkie made some good points on PTS. It used to be ELC, bridge deal, and then you get your money. Now we're seeing guys wanted/getting their money immediately after their ELC. Also it used to be playoff/Cup success and then guys cashing in on the club. The Leafs haven't even won a round yet and already they're having to manage it. Just the reality.

Yeah, Burke would probably know quite a bit about guys wanting big money on their second deals given how the Kessel situation played out.

 

[princedpw]

Thanks for this. So, it looks to me like holding each guy to a million less and buying out Marleau (assuming he is still around) may save enough to pay Gardiner (depending on his ask) or some other decent defenseman 5-6 million while subbing in a generic million-dollar forward.

Since he's a 35+ contract, buying out Marleau wouldn't have any effect on the cap. The 3rd year of that contract really cripples us. Again if somebody wants to point any fingers at a specific contract for hurting our cap situation this is the one. I almost wonder if the Leafs would have been better off just overpaying him even more than they already did on a 2-year deal instead.

Rats. Forgot about this. Well, maybe if they trade Zaitsev, they could keep Gardiner, but basically, ... no.  I guess Sandin and Liljegren had better be ready!

 

[princedpw]

Thanks for this. So, it looks to me like holding each guy to a million less and buying out Marleau (assuming he is still around) may save enough to pay Gardiner (depending on his ask) or some other decent defenseman 5-6 million while subbing in a generic million-dollar forward.

Since he's a 35+ contract, buying out Marleau wouldn't have any effect on the cap. The 3rd year of that contract really cripples us. Again if somebody wants to point any fingers at a specific contract for hurting our cap situation this is the one. I almost wonder if the Leafs would have been better off just overpaying him even more than they already did on a 2-year deal instead.

I think the 3rd year is what got him to uproot his family to move here (i.e. 3 years for his kids in the GTHL). It would take a very very very disastrous coincidence for him to move back now (let's say the Leafs super promising season is wiped out really early on this year, while San Jose wracks up a very strong run with Karlsson).

I seem to recall Nik saying at the time that there was no way in hell Marleau would still be around for that 3rd year.  But I could easily be misremembering. 

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I seem to recall Nik saying at the time that there was no way in hell Marleau would still be around for that 3rd year.  But I could easily be misremembering. 

I don't know if Nik was doing that as well, but I was banging that drum pretty hard at first. I've softened my stance on it since then though. Basically, the Leafs structured the contract to heavily incentivize Marleau to unofficially retire before his contract actually expired... the same way guys like Zetterberg and Hossa and others had their contracts structured but just to a much smaller scale. But the problem is the decision is still Marleau's. So if he feels like playing that 3rd year will give him a shot at winning his first Cup and his body is still up for it, he'll probably play the contract out.

 

[TML fan]

I wouldn't worry about Gardiner's money. He will be getting it from some other team.

 

[Kin]

I seem to recall Nik saying at the time that there was no way in hell Marleau would still be around for that 3rd year.  But I could easily be misremembering.

No, you got me on that one. I still think the Leafs could effectively force the issue but in my defense I didn't think Marleau would look as spry as he looks.

 

[Guilt Trip]

I wouldn't worry about Gardiner's money. He will be getting it from some other team.

Exactly. Don't see him in the plans going forward but the Leafs need Dermott or someone else to step up this season.
And barring injury, I see Marleau back again next season. He's still a good player and doesn't appear to be slowing down a bit. I think he's miscast on Matthews line tho but so far so good.

 

[mr grieves]

So are you telling me that you think Auston Matthews would be playing even better with Nylander on his line instead of Kapanen?  I don't, quite honestly.

Yes, that's exactly what you're being told. Matthews has been worse this year at evens. Corsi, Goals For, Expected Goals For, Scoring Chances For, High Danger Chances For -- and shares of each of those. All worse than last year.

You're thinking of his PP performance.

 

[disco]

I wouldn't worry about Gardiner's money. He will be getting it from some other team.

Yeah, the cap has shrunk the pool of cash available for the league's middle-class. The superstars and stars get their fat pay-days and the scrubs, role-players and rookie ELC's get their minimum. But I'm sure if a lot of guys on a lot of clubs if they went on the open market tomorrow would be priced out of range for their respective teams because of over-payment. For example, if Naz at $4.5 goes to market someone gives him six, Freddy at $5 someone gives him more and Rielly if you put him on the market would get something like $7.5. That's like $8-million for three middle class players right there. I mean, Chicago started losing guys AFTER their first Cup, we'll start losing guys well before that. JVR and Bozie last year, Gards the next.

All the chatter isn't necessarily about Nylander et al per se. A lot of it blends into general cap discussion.

 

[Kin]

Yeah, the cap has shrunk the pool of cash available for the league's middle-class. The superstars and stars get their fat pay-days and the scrubs, role-players and rookie ELC's get their minimum.

I don't think that's true. I think mid-tier guys do just fine in the current set-up. Bozak got a pretty decent payday, as do a lot of guys of that ilk in free agency.

The bigger issue is the way that the league took out the backdiving deals. Chicago and LA were really only able to build the teams they did because they could get away with really good players on artificially low AAVs.